Service Plays Tuesday 10/15/13

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GL!

Red Sox at Tigers: What bettors need to know

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

Series is tied 1-1.

David Ortiz added to his playoff lore in Game 2 with the big blow of a memorable comeback and the Boston Red Sox seek to take a 2-1 lead in the American League Championship Series when the scene moves to Detroit for Game 3 on Tuesday. Boston recovered from a five-run deficit with Ortiz hitting a game-tying grand slam in the eighth and Jarrod Saltalamacchia driving in the winning run an inning later. The Tigers attempt to recover behind red-hot Justin Verlander.

Verlander hasn’t allowed a run in 15 postseason innings this October and Boston hitters have struggled against Detroit starters in the series, totaling one run and two hits while striking out 25 times in 13 innings against Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer. The Tigers appeared headed to a 2-0 series lead prior to the bullpen meltdown that saw Ortiz belt the 15th postseason homer of his career, a blast off Joaquin Benoit that Detroit right fielder Torii Hunter was unable to grab and flipped over the low wall and into the Boston bullpen. “Postseason is something that can work both ways for you,” Ortiz said of his playoff success. “It can go well if you stay calm. Or it can go bad if you try to overdo things.”

TV: 4:07 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing in from CF at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46)

Lackey defeated Tampa Bay in the AL Division Series when he gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings. He went 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season and his career mark is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 outings. Lackey went 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA after the All-Star break, a huge drop from a 2.78 mark beforehand.

Verlander struck out 21 while allowing six hits and two walks against Oakland in the ALDS. He allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings in a no-decision against Boston on June 23 and his career record is 3-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts. Verlander was 6-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 regular-season home starts.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in Lackey's last five starts.
* Tigers are 2-10 in Verlander's last 12 starts.

UMP TRENDS - Ron Kulpa:

* Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander's last five road starts with Kulpa behind home plate.
* Under is 5-0 in Verlander's last five home with Kulpa behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-1 in Kulpa's last six games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera has two homers in his last three games after a power drought that began on Sept. 18 due to groin and abdominal injuries.

2. Ortiz is batting .370 with two homers in 27 career at-bats against Verlander.

3. Hunter injured his head, neck and shoulder with his tumble into the bullpen but said he will play in Game 3.

College football odds: Week 8 opening line report

Week 8 of the NCAA football schedule brings us a dream matchup in the ACC as the Clemson Tigers (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) host the Florida State Seminoles (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS).

Both teams are undefeated and feature quarterbacks who find themselves in the thick of the Heisman race.

'Noles QB Jameis Winston has been sensational all season and is second in the country with a 213.9 QB rating.

Florida State will be fresh off a bye week as they head to South Carolina and absolutely hammered Maryland 63-0 in their last effort.

Clemson has its own Heisman hopeful in QB Tajh Boyd. The Tigers defeated Boston College 24-14 to improve to a perfect 6-0 Saturday.

According to Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, he and his team of oddsmakers sent out Florida State as the fave but he believes the home team is the team to beat here.

"We put out Florida State -1.5 but I'm not so sure they should be the favorite," Korner told Covers. "Clemson will show up and being at home, there's no reason they can't win this one straight up. Initial offshore money was on FSU that drove this to -3 but we're not convinced of that. We started lower and expect the money to come our way."

Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-15)

Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) just keep on rolling. But while the Aggies' defense leaves plenty to be desired, offense is the name of the game at College Station.

The Aggies are fourth in the country averaging 47.8 points per game on offense and face an Auburn Tigers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) team that features a very stingy defense and potent rushing attack.

"With A&M and Manziel, I usually go with whoever has the highest number but after they squeaked by in their last game, we may not have to," Korner said. "Fortunately, we were all close in this one with a low of -14 and a high of -15.5. We made it -15 and hope Auburn will keep up."

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (+2.5)

It has been a spectacular season for the SEC East leading Missouri Tigers (6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS).

The Tigers 41-26 victory at No. 7 Georgia should be what everyone is talking about. But it's the injury to senior-QB James Franklin that is stealing headlines.

Franklin will reportedly miss at least six weeks after he left the game with a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter Saturday.

Korner states that Mizzou would be the fave with Franklin in the lineup, but had to give the edge to the visiting Gators (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) for this SEC matchup.

"Franklin is out and that's pretty big so this week's line is a test of who can figure out how much he's worth," says Korner. "With him in, Missouri is definitely a small favorite but we switched it up and made Florida the -2.5 point favorite. Have to roll the dice in this one."

UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-4)

A very interesting battle in the Pac-12 that would have been even more interesting if Utah didn't burst Stanford's bubble Saturday.

The Cardinal (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) dropped their first game by a score of 27-21 to the Utes but still open as faves with the visiting UCLA Bruins (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) in town.

The Bruins sit first the South division of the Pac-12 and have an unblemished 5-0 ATS mark on the season.

Korner and his team were unanimous on this one with the Cardinal getting the edge.

"Didn't have much to discuss in this one as everyone had Stanford -4," confirmed Korner. "We'll see how Stanford reacts after their upset loss at Utah."

NCAAF line watch: Florida State backers sit tight
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (-14)

There are a handful of games each week in which the only moves in one particular direction are going to come at the outset. Such as last week’s Hawaii-UNLV game, when the “sharps” moved the initial price in the Rebels’ direction, then watched as the public gradually shoved the line the other way the rest of the week.

This week’s example of a team “only the sharps could love” is troubled and winless UConn, which surprisingly generated enough early action at +16 for this Saturday’s American clash at Cincinnati that the price quickly dipped as low as 14 at many Nevada wagering outlets.

In truth, however, the burst of early Huskies’ money was probably more of a reaction to perceived overvalue on the part of Tommy Tuberville’s Cincy, which has dropped four of its last five against the spread after opening with a lopsided win over Purdue, a result that in retrospect perhaps distorted the perception of the Bearcats.

But Cincy’s failure to cover in three straight versus teams all winless at the time (Miami-Ohio, South Florida, and Temple) has understandably soured the marketplace (and, apparently, the sharp money) on the Bearcats.

We suspect the early move on this Saturday’s game was almost completely due to the growing anti-Cincinnati sentiment among the sharps.

The public money, however, might not share the same degree of misgiving about the Bearcats, and is instead more likely to react to the negative news surrounding UConn, which has not only changed coaches in midstream (Paul Pasqualoni out, o.c. T.J. Weist promoted to interim HC), but has also switched QBs.

Indeed, Weist’s first move was benching incumbent starter Chandler Whitmer and replacing him with true frosh Tim Boyle, who proceeded to complete only 15 of his 43 pass attempts in his first start last Saturday against USF.

Series trends between these sides also heavily favor the home team, which has covered seven of the last eight meetings.

The bottom line is that we foresee no further money moves in UConn’s direction. There are enough 14s currently posted at Las Vegas books for Cincy-inclined backers to take advantage ASAP at the current reduced price before the spread inevitably moves above that key number later in the week.

Spread to wait on

Florida State Seminoles (-3) at Clemson Tigers

It has been a while since the nation has been as transfixed upon an ACC gridiron battle as it will for this Saturday’s FSU at Clemson tussle. Expect action to be brisk at the Las Vegas sports books for this clash with not only ACC, but BCS and even Heisman Trophy ramifications.

Early movement in this price was hard to detect, but it’s what we didn’t see that caught our attention. Specifically, there was not enough appetite for the Seminoles among the sharps or the first wave of public money to move the price above the key number of FSU -3. In fact, for a short while there were a few stray 2.5s popping up in the marketplace, but for the most part there has been no early movement off of the key number of 3.

All of this is illuminating, suggesting the Tigers have earned a degree of respect in the marketplace. While Clemson’s spread form has been indifferent in recent weeks, and the Tigers were involved in an unexpected scrap last Saturday vs. Boston College, most of the public money will be recalling Clemson’s rousing opener against SEC rep Georgia, a game in which the Tigers prevailed in exciting fashion. Along with the Chick-fil-A Bowl win over LSU last New Year’s Eve, Dabo Swinney’s squad has been making a positive impression in recent high-profile games.

Indicators are that Seminole backers probably don’t have to worry about the price at Death Valley to rise above the key number of 3. But there figures to be ample opportunity to lay less than 3 as the week progresses, so we suggest that FSU backers ought to sit tight and wait for opportunities to play this game beneath a very key number later in the week.

Total to watch

Central Florida Knights at Louisville Cardinals

Though the totals market is generally a bit thinner than the straight-bet board, oddsmakers are nonetheless sensitive to those Over and Under trends as well. Most definitely, the books do not want to continue getting beat by the same totals trends, which the sharp money can ruthlessly capitalize upon.

Which is why the oddsmakers no longer waste any time with “soft totals” that can be moved quickly in one direction. The books usually have an idea in which direction the totals money is likely to flow, so they will adjust the prices almost from the outset.

Posting Oregon and Baylor totals into the stratosphere from the outset are examples this season of the books proactively protecting themselves from too much exposure on one side of the total wagers which are more likely to be exploited by sharp money.

Along that line of thought, oddsmakers know totals results patterns as well as pointspread result trends, and while we have not seen as many pronounced totals trends yet this season, a couple of the primo Under teams do get together on Friday night at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium as Louisville plays host to UCF in an American showdown.

No one needs to remind the books that the Cardinals are Under 5-1 this season, and the Knights are 4-1 to the Under as well.

Knowing that such trends can develop a quick following, don’t be surprised if the first total you see on ‘Ville-UCF is a bit lower than might be expected.

NFL betting: Three cold teams to avoid in Week 7

Whether it's a spate of injuries, a stretch of inconsistency or a little bit of both, several teams face daunting tasks in Week 7 of the NFL season. Bettors should be wary of putting their faith in these clubs, at least while they remain cold.

Here are three teams to avoid in Week 7:

Buffalo Bills (2-4, at Miami)

The Bills dropped a 27-24 overtime decision to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday despite erasing a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit. Buffalo could be 5-1 at this point - having lost three of four games by fewer than seven points - yet could just as easily be 0-6 following a one-point win over Carolina and a three-point triumph over Baltimore. Adding journeyman Matt Flynn to the quarterback mess isn't going to help a team that ranks 28th in average passing yards per game, squandering what has been a robust rush attack (148.8 ypg).

Houston Texans (2-4, at Kansas City)

Things have gone from very bad to much, much worse for the Texans, who were manhandled from start to finish in a one-sided loss to the St. Louis Rams. Despite strong showings from pre-injury Matt Schaub and a rejuvenated Arian Foster, Houston had all sorts of problems containing all facets of the St. Louis offense. The Texans also surrendered an interception-return touchdown for the fifth straight week, which certainly didn't help matters - nor will a Week 7 matchup with a Chiefs team that has yet to lose while boasting a plus-87 point differential.

New York Jets (3-3, vs. New England)

The Geno Smith honeymoon may be over after the rookie quarterback struggled throughout Sunday's 19-6 loss to the previously winless Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith finished with just 201 passing yards while throwing a pair of interceptions in the Jets' second terrible showing in a three-week span. The defense will keep this team in most games, but the Smith-led offense has managed just 29 points in its three losses - and will be in tough next Sunday against a Patriots team that has allowed just six passing touchdowns through six games.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won five of their first six games. Minnesota won its last three games, giving up one goal in each game.
-- Penguins won four of their first five games.
-- Chicago is 3-2 in first five games, with last four decided by one goal.
-- Kings won last three games, allowing four goals. Lightning won three of last four games.
-- San Jose won its first five games, outscoring opponents 24-7. Blues won their last four games, outscoring foes 19-7.
-- Canadiens won three of their last four games.
-- Red Wings won four of their first six games. Blue Jackets won their first two games on foreign ice, allowing three goals.
-- Colorado won its first five games, allowing four goals.
-- Coyotes won last three games, allowing six goals.

Cold teams
-- Buffalo is 0-7 this season, outscored 18-7. Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Flyers lost five of their first six games. Vancouver lost its last two games, both 4-1.
-- Edmonton lost five of its first five games.
-- Hurricanes lost three of their last four games.
-- Panthers losrt four of their last five games. Nashville is 2-3 in its first five games.
-- Winnipeg lost three of its last four games.
-- Dallas split its first four games, scoring nine goals.
-- Senators lost their last four games, allowing 16 goals.

Series records
-- Maple Leafs won their last two games with Minnesota, 3-0/4-1.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with Buffalo.
-- Road team won four of last six Vancouver-Philly games (3-3 overall).
-- Penguins won four of its last five games with Edmonton.
-- Blackhawks won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Kings won last two games with Tampa Bay, allowing one goal.
-- Blues won six of last seven games with San Jose.
-- Predators won four of last five games with Florida.
-- Jets lost five in row, eight of last nine games with Montreal.
-- Columbus won four of last five games with the Red Wings.
-- Stars won six of last nine games with Colorado.
-- Home side won five of last six Ottawa-Phoenix games.

Totals
-- Last two Minnesota-Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Islander-Sabre games stayed under the total.
-- Five of six Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Five of six Oiler games, last three Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Los Angeles games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four St Louis games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-2 in last six Nashville games.
-- Last four Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Columbus-Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Phoenix games went over the total.

MLB

Tigers-Red Sox
Lackey is 3-1, 5.57 in his last five starts, four of which went over total; Boston scored 34 runs in the five games. He is 0-1, 3.14 in two starts against the Tigers this season- Red Sox scored three runs in those two games.

Verlander is 1-0, 0.00 in his last four starts, throwing 27 scoreless innings in a row; all four starts stayed under total, with Detroit scoring six runs in the four games (losing 1-0 twice). He allowed four runs in five IP in his only '13 start vs Boston, a game Detroit's bullpen later won 7-5.

Boston rallied from down 5-1 in 8th inning to even series with 6-5 walkoff win Sunday; nine of their last eleven games went over total. Red Sox are 4-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 6-3 in those games. Boston lost four of their last six road games.

Detroit won three of its last four games, allowing 12 runs, after losing seven of previous 10 games; eight of their last eleven stayed under the total. Tigers won seven of their last ten home games.

Dodgers-Cardinals
Lynn is 3-2, 2.79 in his last five starts and also threw two scoreless innings in relief in Friday's Game 1 win; over is 4-1-1 in his last six road starts. Lynn also blanked LA for six innings in a 7-0 win May 24.

Nolasco had rough end of September, going 0-2, 14.25 in his last three starts; he is 2-0, 3.00 in two starts (12 IP) against St Louis this season. Nolasco's last five starts all went over the total. This is his first start since September 29.

Dodgers are 5-5 against St Louis this year, with seven of ten games going under the total. LA is 4-3 in playoffs but 10-13 in last 23 games overall; all three games in this series stayed under the total-- they've scored five runs in 31 innings in this series so far.

Cardinals won 13 of their last 17 games, but lost three of last four road games; they allowed five runs in first three games of this series- four of their last five games stayed under total.

Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Detroit

The Red Sox look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-10 in Justin Verlander's last 11 starts when the total is set from 7 to 8 1/2. Boston is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

San Jose at St. Louis

The Blues look to build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games against the Sharks. St. Louis is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

NCAA Football Game Picks

UL-Lafayette at Western Kentucky

The Ragin' Cajuns look to build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. Louisiana-Lafayette is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ragin' Cajuns favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette (+4 1/2).

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1115-836 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES: W Ky -4

Cappers Access

W. Kentucky -4
Tigers -155

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Phoenix -140

Toronto -140

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Cardinals on Monday and likes the Tigers on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1257 sirignanos.

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

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ST LOUIS (102 - 67) at LA DODGERS (95 - 73) - 8:05 PM
LANCE LYNN (R) vs. RICKY NOLASCO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

LANCE LYNN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LYNN is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

RICKY NOLASCO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
NOLASCO is 3-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.99 and a WHIP of 1.466.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-3. (+3.7 units)

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BOSTON (101 - 67) at DETROIT (97 - 72) - 4:05 PM
JOHN LACKEY (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-4 (+1.3 Units) against BOSTON this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. DETROIT since 1997
LACKEY is 6-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.322.
His team's record is 7-5 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-7. (-3.7 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 3-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.197.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.5 units)