[h=1]Week 7 Eliminator best bets[/h][h=3]Projecting the safest selections for Eliminator pools in Week 7 and beyond[/h]By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire
ESPN INSIDER
In August, if someone told you that one of the two remaining undefeated teams come Week 7 would be the Kansas City Chiefs, and that the New York Giants would be 0-6, would you have believed them? It's highly unlikely you would have, but with six weeks in the books, the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos are last of the undefeateds and the Giants are winless.
This past week, the New England Patriots put a blemish on the New Orleans Saints' previously flawless record with a miraculous last-second connection between Tom Brady and Kenbrell Thompkins.
From the miraculous to the mediocre, the Houston Texans continue to stumble. In the midst of Matt Schaub's pick-six streak, the Virginia product was injured while the Texans were down big to the St. Louis Rams. Backup T.J. Yates entered the game to applause, and proceeded to throw two interceptions of his own, one of which was returned to the house. There must be something in the quarterbacks' water down in Houston.
Each week, we at numberFire will be here with our predictive modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide you with the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making. For a more detailed look at our process, you can refer to our previous articles this season.
To help you visualize, here's our Eliminator Pool threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated as results come in over the course of the season.
Green -- Our equity-maximizing pick of the week.
Red -- Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player.
Brown -- Max method: This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.
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Beat the public
In Week 7, the three most-picked teams are the Green Bay Packers (39.9 percent), San Diego Chargers (19.5 percent) and Seattle Seahawks (7.2 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week:
1. Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79.0 percent numberFire win probability, 77.5 percent Vegas win probability)
Finally, a week not picking the team playing Jacksonville! The Falcons are struggling through injuries and currently sit at a dismal 1-4 in the NFC South. After losing Julio Jones for the season, Atlanta had a bye week to recover, and will now play the bottom-dwelling Bucs in Week 7. The Bucs have been horrendous offensively, ranking No. 31 after adjusting for the strength of opponents (only those Eliminator-loving Jaguars are worse). Despite the poor start, the Falcons have actually been the No. 2 team offensively on a per play basis. They have added almost 60 points to their offense above expectation.
2. Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans (70.3 percent numberFire, 73.3 percent Vegas)
Here we have two teams heading in very opposite directions. The undefeated Chiefs continue to roll, with the league's top opponent-adjusted defense through six weeks. The Chiefs have prevented over 70 points that a league-average defense would have allowed. On the other hand, the Texans are sitting at a brutal 2-4 with enormous questions surrounding the quarterback position. The Chiefs should handle their business at Arrowhead this week.
3. Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals (70.3 percent numberFire, 73.0 percent Vegas)
The Seahawks bounced back in Week 6, taking down the Tennessee Titans 20-13. Now, they play a much weaker Arizona squad. One of the more evenly balanced teams, the Seahawks own the NFL's No. 3 opponent-adjusted defense and No. 9 opponent-adjusted offense. The Cardinals rank on the opposite end of the spectrum, falling to No. 25 offensively after Week 6. Seattle should continue its winning ways, even on the road.
Probable picks
Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 7:
1. Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79.0 percent numberFire win probability, 77.5 percent Vegas win probability)
2. Green Bay Packers over Cleveland Browns (77.0 percent numberFire, 83.3 percent Vegas)
The Packers are the most picked team in Week 7, even after barely taking down the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. Aaron Rodgers and the No. 3 passing attack in the NFC should be able to have success, despite injuries to some of the offense's top weapons.
3. Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals (70.3 percent numberFire, 73.0 percent Vegas)
Max method
Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future as you can only pick each team once. The No. 4 most-picked team in Week 7 is the San Francisco 49ers, but they have a surprisingly tough matchup at Tennessee. If you are thinking of using them, wait until next week when they get the lowly Jaguars. They're projected to win that matchup over 75 percent of the time.
ESPN INSIDER
In August, if someone told you that one of the two remaining undefeated teams come Week 7 would be the Kansas City Chiefs, and that the New York Giants would be 0-6, would you have believed them? It's highly unlikely you would have, but with six weeks in the books, the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos are last of the undefeateds and the Giants are winless.
This past week, the New England Patriots put a blemish on the New Orleans Saints' previously flawless record with a miraculous last-second connection between Tom Brady and Kenbrell Thompkins.
From the miraculous to the mediocre, the Houston Texans continue to stumble. In the midst of Matt Schaub's pick-six streak, the Virginia product was injured while the Texans were down big to the St. Louis Rams. Backup T.J. Yates entered the game to applause, and proceeded to throw two interceptions of his own, one of which was returned to the house. There must be something in the quarterbacks' water down in Houston.
Each week, we at numberFire will be here with our predictive modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide you with the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making. For a more detailed look at our process, you can refer to our previous articles this season.
To help you visualize, here's our Eliminator Pool threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated as results come in over the course of the season.
Green -- Our equity-maximizing pick of the week.
Red -- Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player.
Brown -- Max method: This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.
<OFFER></OFFER>
<!-- photo wide photo -->
<!-- end wide photo -->
Beat the public
In Week 7, the three most-picked teams are the Green Bay Packers (39.9 percent), San Diego Chargers (19.5 percent) and Seattle Seahawks (7.2 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week:
1. Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79.0 percent numberFire win probability, 77.5 percent Vegas win probability)
Finally, a week not picking the team playing Jacksonville! The Falcons are struggling through injuries and currently sit at a dismal 1-4 in the NFC South. After losing Julio Jones for the season, Atlanta had a bye week to recover, and will now play the bottom-dwelling Bucs in Week 7. The Bucs have been horrendous offensively, ranking No. 31 after adjusting for the strength of opponents (only those Eliminator-loving Jaguars are worse). Despite the poor start, the Falcons have actually been the No. 2 team offensively on a per play basis. They have added almost 60 points to their offense above expectation.
2. Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans (70.3 percent numberFire, 73.3 percent Vegas)
Here we have two teams heading in very opposite directions. The undefeated Chiefs continue to roll, with the league's top opponent-adjusted defense through six weeks. The Chiefs have prevented over 70 points that a league-average defense would have allowed. On the other hand, the Texans are sitting at a brutal 2-4 with enormous questions surrounding the quarterback position. The Chiefs should handle their business at Arrowhead this week.
3. Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals (70.3 percent numberFire, 73.0 percent Vegas)
The Seahawks bounced back in Week 6, taking down the Tennessee Titans 20-13. Now, they play a much weaker Arizona squad. One of the more evenly balanced teams, the Seahawks own the NFL's No. 3 opponent-adjusted defense and No. 9 opponent-adjusted offense. The Cardinals rank on the opposite end of the spectrum, falling to No. 25 offensively after Week 6. Seattle should continue its winning ways, even on the road.
Probable picks
Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 7:
1. Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79.0 percent numberFire win probability, 77.5 percent Vegas win probability)
2. Green Bay Packers over Cleveland Browns (77.0 percent numberFire, 83.3 percent Vegas)
The Packers are the most picked team in Week 7, even after barely taking down the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. Aaron Rodgers and the No. 3 passing attack in the NFC should be able to have success, despite injuries to some of the offense's top weapons.
3. Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals (70.3 percent numberFire, 73.0 percent Vegas)
Max method
Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future as you can only pick each team once. The No. 4 most-picked team in Week 7 is the San Francisco 49ers, but they have a surprisingly tough matchup at Tennessee. If you are thinking of using them, wait until next week when they get the lowly Jaguars. They're projected to win that matchup over 75 percent of the time.
