Service Plays Thursday 10/17/13

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (5 - 0) at N CAROLINA (1 - 4) - 10/17/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NCAAF

Week 8

Trend Report

Thursday, October 17

7:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NORTH CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
North Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

DCI College Football

Thursday, October 17, 2013
Atlantic Coast Conference
Miami (Fla.) 39.0 at NORTH CAROLINA 30.6, 7:45 pm ET

Stevie Y

Miami Fl/North Carolina Under 64.5

Chicago Syndicate

Miami Florida -8.5

Miami at North Carolina: What bettors need to know

Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels (+9.5, 64.5)

Miami takes its No. 11 ranking and seven-game winning streak to North Carolina for a prime-time ACC matchup with the Tar Heels on Thursday night. North Carolina will have Bryn Renner back under center after he sat out a 27-17 loss at No. 20 Virginia Tech with a foot injury, but the Tar Heels will be hard-pressed to get the air game going against Miami's stiff pass defense. The Tar Heels haven't beaten a ranked team since knocking off No. 24 Florida State in 2010.

The Hurricanes are facing their first big road test and expect a hostile environment under the lights, regardless of North Carolina's early struggles. "We're going to be facing a great challenge and an excellent team on Thursday night," Miami coach Al Golden told reporters. "Records really don't matter. Records are talking about the past. We know what type of team we're going to see." The Tar Heels have won four of the past six meetings, including an 18-14 victory last year in Miami.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Miami opened as an 8-point favorite and has been bet up to -9.5. The total opened at 63.5 and moved to 64.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with a 24 percent chances of rain and winds blow WSW at 4 mph.

ABOUT MIAMI (5-0, 1-0 ACC Coastal, 4-1 ATS): The Hurricanes boast one of the best pass defenses in the nation as they have allowed only two passing touchdowns - the fewest in the country - and have recorded 18 sacks. The offense has been equally impressive recently as Miami has put up 40 or more points in three straight games and looks to make it four straight for the first time since 1987. The Hurricanes have been balanced with Stephen Morris (950 pass yards, nine touchdowns, four interceptions) and Duke Johnson (572 rushing yards, four TDs) leading the way.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (1-4, 0-2, 1-4 ATS): The Tar Heels have struggled on both sides of the ball in coach Larry Fedora's second season, dropping three straight since a 40-20 victory over Middle Tennessee. North Carolina has gained at least 400 total yards in 14 of 17 games under Fedora but only two of five games this season. The offense is still loaded with potential, though, with tight end Eric Ebron (23 catches, 333 yards, two touchdowns) and receiver Quinshad Davis (19 catches, 298 yards, four TDs) giving Renner a pair of terrific targets.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in North Carolina.
* Underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Hurricanes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami is 15-3 all-time in Thursday night games on ESPN while North Carolina is 6-5, including a 27-10 season-opening loss at South Carolina this year.

2. North Carolina has made 189 consecutive extra-point attempts - the second-longest active streak in the nation (Texas Tech, 239) - over a span of 55 games.

3. Morris needs 184 yards to become the sixth 6,000-yard passer in school history and 243 yards to pass Vinny Testaverde (6,058) for fourth on Miami's all-time list.

Thursday Night Football betting: Seahawks at Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5, 40)

Much has been made of disparity in play by the Seattle Seahawks when they are at home versus on the road, and it can be best exemplified by their two matchups with the Arizona Cardinals last season. The Seahawks lost by four points at Arizona in the 2012 season opener, only to get revenge by mauling the Cardinals 58-0 at home three months later. Seattle is sitting atop the NFC West with a 5-1 record heading into a Thursday night showdown at division rival Arizona.

The Seahawks have won two of three away from home but the victory margin in the two victories came by a combined eight points. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a short week to prepare for the back end of a brutal division daily-double after Sunday's 32-20 turnover-laden defeat in San Francisco. It marks the start of a critical three-game homestand for Arizona, although each contest is against a team that advanced to the playoffs last season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Seattle opened as low as -4.5 and was bet up to as high as -7 before buyback dropped the line to -6.5. The total opened at 40 and moved to 40.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-7.5) + Arizona (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +7.5

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-1, 4-2 ATS): Seattle ran its home winning streak to 11 games with Sunday's 20-13 victory over Tennessee, but life on the road has been a different story. The Seahawks trailed in the fourth quarter in a season-opening 12-7 win at Carolina and needed a boneheaded interception by Houston quarterback Matt Schaub to prevail in overtime in Week 4 before squandering a fourth-quarter lead in a 34-28 loss at Indianapolis a week later. Quarterback Russell Wilson has played efficiently but is averaging only 209 yards passing, although he has the luxury of handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who is third in the league in rushing with 487 yards.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (3-3, 4-2 ATS): Arizona rolled up 403 yards of offense against the 49ers but was unable to overcome four turnovers, including a pair of interceptions by Carson Palmer, who was also sacked for a safety. Rookie Andre Ellington is making a strong bid to supplant Rashard Mendenhall as the starting running back with seven carries for 56 yards and a touchdown and five receptions for 36 more on Sunday. The Cardinals had a major injury scare when defensive end Calais Campbell was carted off the field and hospitalized for possible neck and spine injuries, but he was back at team meetings on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Arizona.
* Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Arizona.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lynch ran for three touchdowns and Seattle forced eight turnovers while setting a franchise record for points in last season's 58-0 rout.

2. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald had his first 100-yard day of the season with six catches for 117 yards and a TD despite a sore hamstring.

3. Arizona has won six of the last seven home matchups against the Seahawks.

Tale of the tape: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks and their vaunted defense travel to Arizona for this week's Thursday night matchup against the Cardinals. Seattle (5-1) shares the top record in the NFC with the New Orleans Saints thanks to a defensive unit that has been among the stingiest in the league against the pass. That doesn't bode well for the Cardinals (3-3), who have had trouble generating any kind of offense so far this season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Much has been made about how well Seattle prevents points, but the Seahawks have actually been adept at moving the ball, as well. Behind second-year quarterback Russell Wilson, Seattle ranks 10th in total yardage per game (372.7), thanks in large part to a rush attack that averages nearly 160 yards per game. Running back Marshawn Lynch has racked up five touchdowns in six games, while Wilson has added 50 carries for 294 yards to date.

Despite the addition of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, the Arizona offense has been spinning its wheels all year. The Cardinals rank 26th in yards per game (322.3) - and like Seattle, the running game is the main reason for that. Arizona is gaining fewer than 86 yards per game on the ground, as Rashard Mendenhall (3.3 yards per carry) continues to struggle his way into a time share with the emerging Andre Ellington (7.0 ypc).

Edge: Seattle

Defense

The Seahawks are an elite NFL defense in every measurable category. They're allowing the second-fewest yards per game (290.2), and only the Houston Texans surrender fewer yards through the air on a weekly basis (188.3). Seattle has given up just five passing touchdowns while snagging nine interceptions. The run defense isn't nearly as strong, but still ranks 11th in yards allowed per contest (101.8) while limiting opposing teams to three rushing scores.

Arizona's defense has struggled against the pass through the first six games of the campaign, getting burned for 260 yards per game while surrendering 10 touchdowns. The Cardinals do have eight interceptions - tied for seventh-most in the NFL - and find themselves in the middle of the pack in completion percentage against (61). The run defense has been much better, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game (90.7) on just 3.5 yards per carry.

Edge: Seattle

Special Teams

When it comes to kick-return defense, the Seahawks are a bit of a roller-coaster. They rank third-last in the NFL in kickoff return average allowed at 27.6 yards, but have limited opponents to a league-worst eight total yards on six punt returns. Seattle returners rank 15th in kickoff yardage (23.5) and fifth in punt yardage (11.8). Seahawks placekicker Steven Hauschka has connected on 14 of 15 field-goal attempts, including both kicks in last week's win over Tennessee.

The Cardinals' return game has been mostly terrible so far in 2013, ranked 22nd overall in kickoff return average (22.4) and tied for 23rd in punt return average (5.8). Arizona has been better in defending return attempts, surrendering the fifth-fewest yards per kickoff return (20.6) and ranking 17th in punt return yards against (8.3). Veteran placekicker Jay Feely has been his usual accurate self, converting nine of 10 field-goal opportunities to date.

Edge: Seahawks

Notable Quotable

"Those two guys are really athletic, flying-around type of guys. They're ball hawks. They have a knack for getting to the football. You have to always know where they are, but at the same time, not be afraid to attack them." - Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson on Cardinals defensive backs Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson

"I don't think it's really fair to the players, especially the veteran players. This is really, really hard on them. There are so many (times) over the course of the last 10 years I've seen guys that could not play on Thursday but could play on Sunday. And that's really hard on a football team." - Arizona head coach Bruce Arians on playing a Thursday night game

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Sunday is still a few days off but already football bettors are moving the NFL Week 7 odds. We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, about some of the biggest mid-week adjustments in Week 7:

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions – Open: -1, Move: -3

Two up-and-down teams butt heads in the Motor City. Some shops opened as low as Detroit -1 while others opened -3 and dropped to -2.5 with action on the Bengals.

“Cincinnati just can’t seem to get the offense going,” says Stoneback. “Detroit has been able put up points, but both have been very inconsistent.”

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +9, Move: +7.5

This is one of the least-bet games on the Week 7 board, according to Stoneback. However, whatever action has come in is on the Jaguars. Bettors are turning around on Jacksonville in recent weeks.

After fading the Jags through the first five weeks, the public backed Jacksonville last week and are back on them again versus the Chargers.

“People would have easily given two touchdowns on the road with the Jags two weeks ago. They would have had no problem with it,” says Stoneback. “Now, after last week, they think Jacksonville may be able to keep this within a touchdown.”

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some markets opened this spread with Philadelphia as a slight home favorite and moved that quickly to the key number of three. Stoneback says the Eagles have been a popular play with the sharps in recent weeks, and could see that attention again even with Nick Foles under center for the injured Mike Vick.

“I don’t think there is a much of a difference on the spread between Foles and Vick. It’s more of a system there in Philly,” says Stoneback. “If Vick was in, there’s no way this would be at -3.5.”

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -4.5, Move: -7.5

This line has moved as many as three points at some markets, with the Texans in a nose dive and headed straight to Arrowhead Stadium, where the record for loudest crowd was just set. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

“The public thinks Houston is done,” says Stoneback, who notes that action on the Chiefs is outnumber bets on the Texans at 12/1. “They’ve fallen apart. I could see this one going to seven by Sunday and maybe the sharps buying back Houston.”

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers – Open: -12, Move: -10

The Packers lost WRs James Jones and Randle Cobb to knee injuries last Sunday and already are missing key cogs on the defensive side of the ball. Early money has trimmed this spread as many as two points at some books.

“We opened Cleveland +10.5 and took early action on the Browns and moved down to +10,” says Stoneback. “Cleveland gave up 31 points last week but this is a pretty good defense. If the Browns can score a touchdown or two, it’s tough to lay double digits.”

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

The Carolina Panthers are playing “Forrest Gump” football through the first six weeks of the season. Their schedule is like a box of chocolates: You never know what you’re going to get?

One week, Carolina is running up the score and shutting out the Giants. The next, it’s scrounging for points against Arizona. And then, it’s following that with an all-out attack on the Vikings. All of which has made the Panthers perhaps the toughest NFL team to handicap.

When it comes to Carolina’s odds, oddsmakers might as well throw a random key number - 3, 6, 7, 10 - against the wall and see if it sticks. And they may have done just that by setting the Panthers as 6-point home favorites against the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

St. Louis, to a lesser extent, is a similar breed of puzzlement when it comes to its odds. The Rams are riding high off a 38-13 upset over Houston last weekend and, much like Carolina, have shown little consistency through the first third of the schedule. But are they really six points worse than the Panthers Sunday?

Just like blindly picking chocolates, those betting Carolina won’t know if they bit into a caramel-filled, hazelnut bonbon or one of those disgusting strawberry mush duds until Sunday afternoon.

NFL

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (-1, 50)

At first glance, this line seems to be on the wrong side of the fence with Washington giving one point at home to the Bears. The Redskins fell to 1-4 with a loss to Dallas Sunday night, however, looking beyond the score uncovers some truths about that game.

Without the exceptional kick return play of Dwyane Harris, who scored on a punt return and gave the Cowboys great field position for another strike, and a costly fumble by Robert Griffin III on his own 3-yard line, this game would have been much closer.

Washington did a good job locking down Dallas’ weapons and was rolling on offense behind RB Alfred Morris and Griffin, who had his best game of the season with an additional 77 yards rushing. An interception in the end zone snuffed out a late push from the Skins.

Chicago, on the other hand, rolled the winless Giants Thursday night. Apparently, kicking New York while its down doesn’t mean much to oddsmakers. This tight spread could be back and forth before kickoff.

NCAAF

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines (-7.5, 67)

Any team that gives up 42 points to Michigan State has some defensive issues. The Hoosiers gave up more than 40 to the Spartans last weekend and have watched three opponents top the 40-point plateau on the scoreboard this season.

Indiana is in the Big House this weekend taking on a Michigan team, which does have its flaws. Scoring the football, however, is not one of them. The Wolverines are averaging 39 points per game - 42.5 at home. Edging that near-TD spread doesn't look to be too much of a chore for a Michigan team looking to erase an OT loss in Happy Valley last Saturday.

Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Ann Arbor while IU is 1-4 ATS

Today's NFL Picks

Seattle at Arizona

The Seahawks look to follow up their 20-13 win over Tennessee last weekend and build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Seattle is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6). Here are all of this week's picks.

NCAA Football Game Picks

Miami (FL) at North Carolina

The Hurricanes look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 road games. Miami (FL) is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-8 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

TMC Sports Advisors 1017

Medias Rojas de Boston / Tigres de Detroit Under

Medias Rojas de Boston

5-1 Last 6 MLB Playoff

TNF

Halcones Marinos de Seattle -6

Halcones Marinos de Seattle / Cardenales de San Luis Over 40

Suerte

The Broker

Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Detroit

The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's 7-3 loss and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Boston is the pick according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston. Here are all of today's picks.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won six of their first seven games.
-- Penguins won five of their first six games.
-- Canadiens won last three games, outscoring foes 11-2.
-- Lightning won four of last five games; Minnesota won three of its last four.
-- Blues won four of their last five games. Chicago won its last three games, allowng total of five goals.
-- Predators/Kings both won three of their last four games.
-- Sharks won first three games, outscoring foes 30-9.
-- Colorado won its first six games, outscoring foes 21-6. Red Wings won their last three games, allowing five goals.


Cold teams
-- Sabres lost six of their first seven games. Vancouver lost two of last three games, scoring five goals.
-- Carolina lost last three games, with two losses in SOs.
-- Islanders lost their last three games, all by one goal. Edmonton lost its last four games,. allowing 17 goals.
-- Flyers lost six of their first seven games.
-- Blue Jackets lost last two games, 2-1/3-1.
-- Ottawa lost four of its last five games. New Jersey is 0-6, with four one-goal losses.
-- Florida lost five of last six ganes. Bruins lost two of last three games, scoring five goals.
-- Dallas lost its last two games, scoring three goals.


Series records
-- Sabres won last two games with Vancouver, 4-3/5-3.
-- Hurricanes won four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Home team won last six Edmonton-Islander games.
-- Penguins won five of last seven games with Philly.
-- Blue Jackets won four of last five games with Montreal.
-- Senators were 3-0 vs New Jersey LY, outscoring them 7-3.
-- Lightning lost five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Bruins won nine of last eleven games with Florida.
-- Blues won three of last four games with Chicago.
-- Kings won five of last seven visits to Nashville.
-- Stars won three of last four games with San Jose.
-- Red Wings won nine of last thirteen games with Colorado.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1-1 in first seven Buffalo games.
-- Three of last four Toronto games stayed under total.
-- Five of seven Edmonton games went over the total.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Pitt-Philly games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Columbus games.
-- Under is 13-3-1 in last seventeen Devil-Senator games.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota-Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Boston-Florida games.
-- Four of last five St Louis games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten LA-Nashville games.
-- Three of last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Detroit-Colorado games stayed under total.

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