[h=1]TNF Primer: How to bet SEA-ARI[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Thursday night game[/h]By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
So surely you've read those "NFL might expand its Thursday night package" stories by now. Yeah, yeah, the NFL denies it. We'll see. After all, more Thursday night games would just mean more Thursday Night Primers. For now, we'll have to stick with our one per week, so let's turn to tonight's matchup: Seahawks at Cardinals.
The noise relating to the Seahawks has quieted a bit in recent weeks. Seattle has been replaced by Denver as everyone's lock to be Super Bowl champion, as it has "struggled" a bit over the past three weeks. In that stretch, the Seahawks are 2-1 overall, but their wins (23-20 over Houston in OT, 20-13 over Tennessee) haven't been dominant, and they bookended a loss to the Colts. Seattle's offense hasn't been explosive, especially compared to the other top teams in the league.
Russell Wilson hasn't thrown for 300 yards since Week 1, Marshawn Lynch has had only one 100-yard rushing game all season and Seattle hasn't had a receiver eclipse 100 yards thus far. Potential offensive catalyst Percy Harvin is reportedly still a few weeks away.
Arizona is 3-3, but the Cardinals have played four games on the road, and two of their three losses were road games against the Saints and 49ers. It doesn't get much tougher than that. A major factor in tonight's game, obviously, is Larry Fitzgerald's lingering hamstring injury. It's hard to see Arizona pulling off the upset with an ineffective Fitzgerald, but if he can fight through the injury, the matchup against Richard Sherman is definitely one to watch.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, Seattle is the public's overwhelming consensus choice, getting picked at a 69 percent rate. The Seahawks might not be the public's darling to win the Super Bowl at the moment, but compared to the Cardinals, they get a lot of support.
Let's turn to some spread analysis from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from our panel of wiseguys.
<CENTER>[h=3]Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals[/h]
Spread: Opened Seahawks minus-4.5; now Seahawks minus-6.5
Total: Opened 40.5; now 40.5
</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Seahawks minus-4.5 this past Sunday, but quickly moved the number up as news broke concerning Fitzgerald. It looks like the star receiver has two bad wheels, which might sideline him or at least make him a minimal factor. The line has crept up, and the market now stands at minus-6.5. The total opened up at 40.5 and hasn't budged. The line movement will depend on how Fitzgerald looks on game day and in warm-ups. If he looks close to 90 percent, I expect the line to drop to minus-6. If he looks worse, the public money could take over and drive it to minus-7. I don't expect too much movement on the total, but any changes could also be based on Fitzgerald."
Prediction: Spread could increase to minus-7 depending on Fitzgerald's health; total unlikely to change.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Wunderdog says: This play is simple when we look at the quarterbacks. The Seahawks are off to a 5-1 start and certainly look like a team that can go the distance this season. Wilson has now played 22 NFL games. In his first six, he got his sea legs. Since then, in the past 16 games (the equivalent of an entire NFL season), the Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 272 points, or 17 points per game. For years, the Seahawks were one of the league's worst road teams. Even now, you hear the talking heads say that Seattle is a different team on the road, one that can't be trusted. But since Wilson took over, this team is 8-5 ATS on the road.
Carson Palmer was supposed to help resurrect an uninspiring Cardinals offense. Instead, he has been reckless with the ball, throwing 11 interceptions in six games. Over the past five seasons, Palmer's teams (Arizona, Oakland, Cincinnati) have gone 29-42 straight-up. Based on my QB ratings, he is one of the worst QBs in the league through six games. Look for the best defense in the league to keep the pressure on Palmer here.
Arizona is really going to struggle to score in this game, so we don't need a ton of points from the Seattle offense to get this win, and it's not a stretch to believe the Seattle defense could produce points here as well. Seattle is the much better team here on both sides of the ball. Seattle has covered 20 of its past 27 spreads against NFC opponents, and it is 7-0-1 ATS in its past eight after throwing for 250 or more yards in its previous game. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 8-0 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points) and 28-14 ATS against conference foes. In a quarterback-driven league, lay the points here on Seattle.
ATS pick: Seahawks
Dave Tuley says: I love home underdogs (19-13 ATS for a solid 59.4 percent so far this season), and the Cardinals have been pretty good to me this year with the exception of last week, when it looked like they were going to hold on to cover against the 49ers but fell short 32-20 as an 11-point underdog. The Seahawks, despite two straight ATS losses (and I felt lucky cashing against them with the Titans on Sunday, as the blocked FG at the end of the first half was a 10-point swing and a big reason they were able to cover in the 10-point loss), are still the superior team. With the line at 6.5, I just think there's too much of a chance that the Seahawks win by exactly a touchdown for me to take the Cardinals. I would at least consider it a play at plus-7.
ATS pick: Pass (lean to Cardinals at plus-7)
Sal Selvaggio says: I made Seattle a 6-point favorite with a total of 40.5 in this game, which is dead on the number. I don't have any significant historical situations that apply to this game either. With no situations and no line value, I have no reason to get involved in this contest, so I'll pass.
ATS pick: Pass
The Sports Boss says: In divisional contests such as this one, I am typically looking to back the home underdog, especially when the number gets up toward a TD. But this is a tough spot for me to make a case that either side is a worthy investment. The Seahawks are coming off a tough home win over the Titans, but they actually dominated the game statistically and should have taken care of business more easily. The Cardinals lost in San Francisco by 12, and that game was very close in my performance ratings, as Arizona had some success offensively, but struggled on defense once again.
The Cardinals continue turning the ball over, and Palmer has thrown an INT and been sacked in every game this season. That isn't a good combo when facing the pass rush and ball hawking secondary of the Seahawks. When I see an edge in passing game and turnovers for one team (Seattle in this case), it makes it tough to go against them, but I also don't like laying that many points on the road on a short week in a divisional contest. I am passing.
ATS pick: Pass
So surely you've read those "NFL might expand its Thursday night package" stories by now. Yeah, yeah, the NFL denies it. We'll see. After all, more Thursday night games would just mean more Thursday Night Primers. For now, we'll have to stick with our one per week, so let's turn to tonight's matchup: Seahawks at Cardinals.
The noise relating to the Seahawks has quieted a bit in recent weeks. Seattle has been replaced by Denver as everyone's lock to be Super Bowl champion, as it has "struggled" a bit over the past three weeks. In that stretch, the Seahawks are 2-1 overall, but their wins (23-20 over Houston in OT, 20-13 over Tennessee) haven't been dominant, and they bookended a loss to the Colts. Seattle's offense hasn't been explosive, especially compared to the other top teams in the league.
Russell Wilson hasn't thrown for 300 yards since Week 1, Marshawn Lynch has had only one 100-yard rushing game all season and Seattle hasn't had a receiver eclipse 100 yards thus far. Potential offensive catalyst Percy Harvin is reportedly still a few weeks away.
Arizona is 3-3, but the Cardinals have played four games on the road, and two of their three losses were road games against the Saints and 49ers. It doesn't get much tougher than that. A major factor in tonight's game, obviously, is Larry Fitzgerald's lingering hamstring injury. It's hard to see Arizona pulling off the upset with an ineffective Fitzgerald, but if he can fight through the injury, the matchup against Richard Sherman is definitely one to watch.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, Seattle is the public's overwhelming consensus choice, getting picked at a 69 percent rate. The Seahawks might not be the public's darling to win the Super Bowl at the moment, but compared to the Cardinals, they get a lot of support.
Let's turn to some spread analysis from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from our panel of wiseguys.
Spread: Opened Seahawks minus-4.5; now Seahawks minus-6.5
Total: Opened 40.5; now 40.5
</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Seahawks minus-4.5 this past Sunday, but quickly moved the number up as news broke concerning Fitzgerald. It looks like the star receiver has two bad wheels, which might sideline him or at least make him a minimal factor. The line has crept up, and the market now stands at minus-6.5. The total opened up at 40.5 and hasn't budged. The line movement will depend on how Fitzgerald looks on game day and in warm-ups. If he looks close to 90 percent, I expect the line to drop to minus-6. If he looks worse, the public money could take over and drive it to minus-7. I don't expect too much movement on the total, but any changes could also be based on Fitzgerald."
Prediction: Spread could increase to minus-7 depending on Fitzgerald's health; total unlikely to change.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Wunderdog says: This play is simple when we look at the quarterbacks. The Seahawks are off to a 5-1 start and certainly look like a team that can go the distance this season. Wilson has now played 22 NFL games. In his first six, he got his sea legs. Since then, in the past 16 games (the equivalent of an entire NFL season), the Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 272 points, or 17 points per game. For years, the Seahawks were one of the league's worst road teams. Even now, you hear the talking heads say that Seattle is a different team on the road, one that can't be trusted. But since Wilson took over, this team is 8-5 ATS on the road.
Carson Palmer was supposed to help resurrect an uninspiring Cardinals offense. Instead, he has been reckless with the ball, throwing 11 interceptions in six games. Over the past five seasons, Palmer's teams (Arizona, Oakland, Cincinnati) have gone 29-42 straight-up. Based on my QB ratings, he is one of the worst QBs in the league through six games. Look for the best defense in the league to keep the pressure on Palmer here.
Arizona is really going to struggle to score in this game, so we don't need a ton of points from the Seattle offense to get this win, and it's not a stretch to believe the Seattle defense could produce points here as well. Seattle is the much better team here on both sides of the ball. Seattle has covered 20 of its past 27 spreads against NFC opponents, and it is 7-0-1 ATS in its past eight after throwing for 250 or more yards in its previous game. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 8-0 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points) and 28-14 ATS against conference foes. In a quarterback-driven league, lay the points here on Seattle.
ATS pick: Seahawks
Dave Tuley says: I love home underdogs (19-13 ATS for a solid 59.4 percent so far this season), and the Cardinals have been pretty good to me this year with the exception of last week, when it looked like they were going to hold on to cover against the 49ers but fell short 32-20 as an 11-point underdog. The Seahawks, despite two straight ATS losses (and I felt lucky cashing against them with the Titans on Sunday, as the blocked FG at the end of the first half was a 10-point swing and a big reason they were able to cover in the 10-point loss), are still the superior team. With the line at 6.5, I just think there's too much of a chance that the Seahawks win by exactly a touchdown for me to take the Cardinals. I would at least consider it a play at plus-7.
ATS pick: Pass (lean to Cardinals at plus-7)
Sal Selvaggio says: I made Seattle a 6-point favorite with a total of 40.5 in this game, which is dead on the number. I don't have any significant historical situations that apply to this game either. With no situations and no line value, I have no reason to get involved in this contest, so I'll pass.
ATS pick: Pass
The Sports Boss says: In divisional contests such as this one, I am typically looking to back the home underdog, especially when the number gets up toward a TD. But this is a tough spot for me to make a case that either side is a worthy investment. The Seahawks are coming off a tough home win over the Titans, but they actually dominated the game statistically and should have taken care of business more easily. The Cardinals lost in San Francisco by 12, and that game was very close in my performance ratings, as Arizona had some success offensively, but struggled on defense once again.
The Cardinals continue turning the ball over, and Palmer has thrown an INT and been sacked in every game this season. That isn't a good combo when facing the pass rush and ball hawking secondary of the Seahawks. When I see an edge in passing game and turnovers for one team (Seattle in this case), it makes it tough to go against them, but I also don't like laying that many points on the road on a short week in a divisional contest. I am passing.
ATS pick: Pass
