[h=1]Best ATS bets for Week 8[/h][h=3]Notre Dame over USC ranks among week's top 10 value picks[/h]By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Week 7 saw a few upsets shake up the polls, but at least four teams still command their conference races in the five power leagues, including our preseason selections of Clemson, South Carolina, Michigan State and Stanford.
After a 5-5 mark left us at 34-36 on the season, Week 8 has us offering a confident endorsement of a pair of rivalry-game hosts, an opinion on Zero Dark Thursday and an easy choice in the upcoming ACC Atlantic showdown.
[h=3]USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (minus-3)[/h]ATS pick: Notre Dame
The Irish have a coach with more than 200 wins who is coveted by the NFL. The Trojans have an interim coach with an 11-25 career record.
The Irish have an elite staff with one coordinator a reigning Broyles Award winner and the other a former head coach with a 74-7 career record. The Trojans have a short-handed, recruiting-oriented, lame-duck staff with one coordinator a new playcaller and the other in his first year with the program.
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Brian Kelly's staff has spent its four years at Notre Dame building a deep roster that produced a BCS title game appearance and its best run in more than a decade. Lane Kiffin's staff has spent its four years at USC -- with the help of sanctions -- crafting a severely depleted roster and leading the school to its worst run in more than a decade.
This week, Notre Dame is coming off an open date -- after which Kelly is 11-3 -- while USC is coming off an emotionally draining victory. Nothing about these programs is remotely comparable right now, and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Trojans have no shot to win this one.
Score: Notre Dame 38, USC 14
[h=3]Miami Hurricanes (minus-9.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]ATS pick: North Carolina
Opposing a desperate but talented team with a chance to save its season is not the time to be backing road chalk on Thursday night. We're not particularly bullish on a Carolina team with glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and all over the defense, but we're not really buying a Miami bunch that's dangerous and explosive yet is still too capable of beating itself.
Score: Miami 31, North Carolina 28
[h=3]Wyoming Cowboys (minus-6.5) at Colorado State Rams[/h]ATS pick: Wyoming
Wyoming has emerged triumphant from Sheep Week in each of Dave Christensen's four years at the helm. The longtime Gary Pinkel understudy emphasizes the Border War above all others. That's no secret, nor is the fact that Colorado State has been burned all season by the type of explosive plays that Wyoming and quarterback Brett Smith generate regularly.
What's less widely understood is that Colorado State is not a typical rivalry-game underdog primed to throw everything it has into a big revenge match. The reality in Fort Collins is that last week's demoralizing loss to San Jose State was the game the Rams hung their hats on. This team isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just flopped in one and this week knows it's being led to a huge defeat.
Score: Wyoming 63, Colorado State 28
[h=3]Florida State Seminoles (minus-3) at Clemson Tigers[/h]ATS pick: Clemson
The home team has won this game -- and gone on to win the ACC Atlantic division -- in each of the past four years. The home team has taken 11 of the past 12 meetings overall. This season the host is the best Clemson edition since the Danny Ford glory days. It is a team driven by the combination of senior triggerman Tajh Boyd and offensive coordinator Chad Morris, a duo we've called one of the greatest quarterback/playcaller batteries in the sport's history. Clemson also has ample talent at the skill positions, a veteran line and a defense that's much-improved in the second year under coordinator Brent Venables.
Yet this is the team that Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles are favored to beat. In Death Valley. With "ESPN College GameDay" on hand. In what the host perceives as the biggest game of the Dabo Swinney era. To live up to the favorite's billing, the 2013 Seminoles must overcome the loss of six assistant coaches, an almost incomprehensible four NFL draft picks from the defensive line alone and the head coach's own history.
Apart from bowls and games versus in-state rivals, Fisher has coached 11 games in which his team was an underdog or a single-digit favorite. He has covered two of them and won just four outright. Fisher has coached 14 ACC games away from Doak Campbell Stadium. He covered just five of those games, all against teams that either won fewer than four games that year or fired their head coaches before the end of the season. And the extra time to prepare is no edge to those who can't convert it to an advantage; after the midseason open date in each of Fisher's first three years, he's 0-3 ATS with two outright losses as a favorite.
The impressive pace at which Florida State assembles elite athletes shows no sign of abatement, but this staff is a long way from proving it can coach that talent to reach its full potential. Fisher's track record is downright ugly when Florida State doesn't have the opponent outmanned.
Score: Clemson 41, Florida State 35
[h=3]Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-28) at Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]ATS pick: Arkansas
Our dim view of 2013 Alabama did not extend to fading the Tide against a truly awful Kentucky team, but we're ready to resume operations. Arkansas was miserable last week, managing just 30 passing yards on 37 offensive plays in a blowout at the hands of the Gamecocks. Still, this is a well-coached, reasonably talented team with good toughness. Alabama is occasionally excellent but mostly inconsistent, by no means a well-oiled machine. This Tide edition still suffers from the intangible afflictions we've observed all year and has no business laying monster weight every week.
Score: Alabama 24, Arkansas 10
[h=3]Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos (minus-21)[/h]ATS pick: Boise State
We've recommended selling Nevada all season, and the Pack have responded with a 1-4 ATS record. Two forgivable losses have this youngish Boise State team off the mainstream radar, but the Broncos remain well-trained and roundly capable in all three phases. We'll back them for a second straight week against a Nevada program very much in transition. An accomplished quarterback in Cody Fajardo and an accordingly decent offense -- along with a 3-3 record forged against super soft competition -- have kept some investors interested in the Wolf Pack, but the defense may not hold any opponent under 500 yards the rest of the season.
This is hardly Chris Petersen's best team, but the Smurfers always fundamentally know who they are and what they're doing. That's in contrast to an invading Pack bunch that's still learning the ropes, and the Broncos' fine track record as big home chalk also appeals. Petersen hasn't covered a game against UNLV since 2006, but he'll find new Pack boss Brian Polian weaker prey than Hall of Famer Chris Ault.
Score: Boise State 56, Nevada 17
[h=3]Florida Gators (minus-3) at Missouri Tigers[/h]ATS pick: Missouri
Relentlessly fading a Gators regime that managed just a 7-6 ATS record even during its high-water mark of 2012 should remain a key part of your game plan. This week Florida hits the road again after a physically draining loss at LSU, and we receive points at home with a quality Missouri team that's ready to rally around backup quarterback Maty Mauk.
Score: Missouri 24, Florida 17
[h=3]Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (minus-12.5)[/h]ATS pick: Texas A&M
It's obvious that the Texas A&M offense is awesome and the defense is one of the weakest in the SEC. The current narrative is that Johnny Manziel is showing no ill effects from his offseason adventures and that the doubters have been silenced once and for all by his incredible playmaking.
Don't believe it. Manziel will always be an elite playmaker, but his ball security has gone from bad to awful, and it will be his turnovers that prevent the Aggies from earning any major prizes this year. This week, though, Kevin Sumlin's crew has its opponent outmanned, as a very banged-up Auburn team with no hope of slowing A&M's offense rolls into College Station just as the Aggies received a lesson in closing the door with a lead.
Score: Texas A&M 49, Auburn 24
[h=3]Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls (minus-20.5)[/h]ATS pick: Massachusetts
The only two MAC schools with a Northeastern rather than Midwestern culture are budding rivals, especially with both current head coaches former offensive assistants under Brian Kelly. Since surviving a five-overtime affair with Stony Brook, Buffalo has looked good in routing a trio of bad teams. We're not sold on this outfit, though, and will happily take the most points the Buffalo program has never been asked to lay with a confident UMass squad that led this game 13-0 at the half last season and is now coming off its first home win as an FBS member.
Score: Buffalo 24, Massachusetts 14
[h=3]Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (minus-14)[/h]ATS pick: Connecticut
We endorsed the Huskies last week in interim coach T.J. Weist's debut, but although South Florida managed just 228 yards, the Bulls claimed a second consecutive win without benefit of an offensive touchdown. Connecticut will show major improvement on the offensive line this week, which should be enough to hang with a poor Cincinnati team that has already demonstrated it shouldn't be laying double digits to much of anybody.
Score: Cincinnati 24, Connecticut 17
Week 7 saw a few upsets shake up the polls, but at least four teams still command their conference races in the five power leagues, including our preseason selections of Clemson, South Carolina, Michigan State and Stanford.
After a 5-5 mark left us at 34-36 on the season, Week 8 has us offering a confident endorsement of a pair of rivalry-game hosts, an opinion on Zero Dark Thursday and an easy choice in the upcoming ACC Atlantic showdown.
[h=3]USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (minus-3)[/h]ATS pick: Notre Dame
The Irish have a coach with more than 200 wins who is coveted by the NFL. The Trojans have an interim coach with an 11-25 career record.
The Irish have an elite staff with one coordinator a reigning Broyles Award winner and the other a former head coach with a 74-7 career record. The Trojans have a short-handed, recruiting-oriented, lame-duck staff with one coordinator a new playcaller and the other in his first year with the program.
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Brian Kelly's staff has spent its four years at Notre Dame building a deep roster that produced a BCS title game appearance and its best run in more than a decade. Lane Kiffin's staff has spent its four years at USC -- with the help of sanctions -- crafting a severely depleted roster and leading the school to its worst run in more than a decade.
This week, Notre Dame is coming off an open date -- after which Kelly is 11-3 -- while USC is coming off an emotionally draining victory. Nothing about these programs is remotely comparable right now, and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Trojans have no shot to win this one.
Score: Notre Dame 38, USC 14
[h=3]Miami Hurricanes (minus-9.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]ATS pick: North Carolina
Opposing a desperate but talented team with a chance to save its season is not the time to be backing road chalk on Thursday night. We're not particularly bullish on a Carolina team with glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and all over the defense, but we're not really buying a Miami bunch that's dangerous and explosive yet is still too capable of beating itself.
Score: Miami 31, North Carolina 28
[h=3]Wyoming Cowboys (minus-6.5) at Colorado State Rams[/h]ATS pick: Wyoming
Wyoming has emerged triumphant from Sheep Week in each of Dave Christensen's four years at the helm. The longtime Gary Pinkel understudy emphasizes the Border War above all others. That's no secret, nor is the fact that Colorado State has been burned all season by the type of explosive plays that Wyoming and quarterback Brett Smith generate regularly.
What's less widely understood is that Colorado State is not a typical rivalry-game underdog primed to throw everything it has into a big revenge match. The reality in Fort Collins is that last week's demoralizing loss to San Jose State was the game the Rams hung their hats on. This team isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just flopped in one and this week knows it's being led to a huge defeat.
Score: Wyoming 63, Colorado State 28
[h=3]Florida State Seminoles (minus-3) at Clemson Tigers[/h]ATS pick: Clemson
The home team has won this game -- and gone on to win the ACC Atlantic division -- in each of the past four years. The home team has taken 11 of the past 12 meetings overall. This season the host is the best Clemson edition since the Danny Ford glory days. It is a team driven by the combination of senior triggerman Tajh Boyd and offensive coordinator Chad Morris, a duo we've called one of the greatest quarterback/playcaller batteries in the sport's history. Clemson also has ample talent at the skill positions, a veteran line and a defense that's much-improved in the second year under coordinator Brent Venables.
Yet this is the team that Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles are favored to beat. In Death Valley. With "ESPN College GameDay" on hand. In what the host perceives as the biggest game of the Dabo Swinney era. To live up to the favorite's billing, the 2013 Seminoles must overcome the loss of six assistant coaches, an almost incomprehensible four NFL draft picks from the defensive line alone and the head coach's own history.
Apart from bowls and games versus in-state rivals, Fisher has coached 11 games in which his team was an underdog or a single-digit favorite. He has covered two of them and won just four outright. Fisher has coached 14 ACC games away from Doak Campbell Stadium. He covered just five of those games, all against teams that either won fewer than four games that year or fired their head coaches before the end of the season. And the extra time to prepare is no edge to those who can't convert it to an advantage; after the midseason open date in each of Fisher's first three years, he's 0-3 ATS with two outright losses as a favorite.
The impressive pace at which Florida State assembles elite athletes shows no sign of abatement, but this staff is a long way from proving it can coach that talent to reach its full potential. Fisher's track record is downright ugly when Florida State doesn't have the opponent outmanned.
Score: Clemson 41, Florida State 35
[h=3]Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-28) at Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]ATS pick: Arkansas
Our dim view of 2013 Alabama did not extend to fading the Tide against a truly awful Kentucky team, but we're ready to resume operations. Arkansas was miserable last week, managing just 30 passing yards on 37 offensive plays in a blowout at the hands of the Gamecocks. Still, this is a well-coached, reasonably talented team with good toughness. Alabama is occasionally excellent but mostly inconsistent, by no means a well-oiled machine. This Tide edition still suffers from the intangible afflictions we've observed all year and has no business laying monster weight every week.
Score: Alabama 24, Arkansas 10
[h=3]Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos (minus-21)[/h]ATS pick: Boise State
We've recommended selling Nevada all season, and the Pack have responded with a 1-4 ATS record. Two forgivable losses have this youngish Boise State team off the mainstream radar, but the Broncos remain well-trained and roundly capable in all three phases. We'll back them for a second straight week against a Nevada program very much in transition. An accomplished quarterback in Cody Fajardo and an accordingly decent offense -- along with a 3-3 record forged against super soft competition -- have kept some investors interested in the Wolf Pack, but the defense may not hold any opponent under 500 yards the rest of the season.
This is hardly Chris Petersen's best team, but the Smurfers always fundamentally know who they are and what they're doing. That's in contrast to an invading Pack bunch that's still learning the ropes, and the Broncos' fine track record as big home chalk also appeals. Petersen hasn't covered a game against UNLV since 2006, but he'll find new Pack boss Brian Polian weaker prey than Hall of Famer Chris Ault.
Score: Boise State 56, Nevada 17
[h=3]Florida Gators (minus-3) at Missouri Tigers[/h]ATS pick: Missouri
Relentlessly fading a Gators regime that managed just a 7-6 ATS record even during its high-water mark of 2012 should remain a key part of your game plan. This week Florida hits the road again after a physically draining loss at LSU, and we receive points at home with a quality Missouri team that's ready to rally around backup quarterback Maty Mauk.
Score: Missouri 24, Florida 17
[h=3]Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (minus-12.5)[/h]ATS pick: Texas A&M
It's obvious that the Texas A&M offense is awesome and the defense is one of the weakest in the SEC. The current narrative is that Johnny Manziel is showing no ill effects from his offseason adventures and that the doubters have been silenced once and for all by his incredible playmaking.
Don't believe it. Manziel will always be an elite playmaker, but his ball security has gone from bad to awful, and it will be his turnovers that prevent the Aggies from earning any major prizes this year. This week, though, Kevin Sumlin's crew has its opponent outmanned, as a very banged-up Auburn team with no hope of slowing A&M's offense rolls into College Station just as the Aggies received a lesson in closing the door with a lead.
Score: Texas A&M 49, Auburn 24
[h=3]Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls (minus-20.5)[/h]ATS pick: Massachusetts
The only two MAC schools with a Northeastern rather than Midwestern culture are budding rivals, especially with both current head coaches former offensive assistants under Brian Kelly. Since surviving a five-overtime affair with Stony Brook, Buffalo has looked good in routing a trio of bad teams. We're not sold on this outfit, though, and will happily take the most points the Buffalo program has never been asked to lay with a confident UMass squad that led this game 13-0 at the half last season and is now coming off its first home win as an FBS member.
Score: Buffalo 24, Massachusetts 14
[h=3]Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (minus-14)[/h]ATS pick: Connecticut
We endorsed the Huskies last week in interim coach T.J. Weist's debut, but although South Florida managed just 228 yards, the Bulls claimed a second consecutive win without benefit of an offensive touchdown. Connecticut will show major improvement on the offensive line this week, which should be enough to hang with a poor Cincinnati team that has already demonstrated it shouldn't be laying double digits to much of anybody.
Score: Cincinnati 24, Connecticut 17
