Service Plays Tuesday 10/22/13

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UL Lafayette at Arkansas State: What bettors need to know

UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves (+2.5)

When it comes to offensive production, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have been as inconsistent as it gets. The Red Wolves will need to be at their explosive best Tuesday night as they welcome one of the nation's most formidable offenses in the UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. Arkansas State is coming off an impressive 48-24 drubbing of the Idaho Vandals 10 days ago but will be in tough against the Cajuns, who have reeled off four consecutive victories.

When they put points on the board, the Red Wolves have a great deal of success - and when they don't, a loss is nearly automatic. Arkansas State is averaging better than 50 points per game in its three victories - including a 62-11 laugher in its season opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff - and fewer than 12 points in its three losses. UL Lafayette has steamrolled its way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference standings, averaging 47.5 points during its winning streak.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Arkansas State has held steady as a 2.5-point home underdog.

WEATHER: Temperatures at Liberty Bank Stadium will be in the low-50s with clear skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the southwest at 8 mph.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt Conference): After relying on the arm of standout quarterback Terrance Broadway in consecutive wins over Akron and Texas State, the Ragin' Cajuns used a stout ground attack to subdue the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 37-20 in their previous game. Alonzo Harris led the way with 115 rushing yards and a pair of scores as UL Lafayette finished with three touchdowns on the ground, amassing 198 of its 254 rushing yards in the opening half. Broadway ranks third in the conference in quarterback efficiency, while Harris is third in rushing yards per game.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (3-3, 1-0): Senior quarterback Adam Kennedy had the game of his career last time out, erupting for a career-high 375 passing yards and four touchdowns in the win over the Vandals. The strong performance vaulted the Utah State transfer into third in the Sun Belt in passing yardage while earning him conference offensive player of the week honors. David Oku led the ground attack with 69 yards and a touchdown, the 24th of his four-year collegiate career. The Red Wolves have one of the best third-down conversion rates in the country, making good on 48 percent of their attempts.

TRENDS:

* UL Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.
* Arkansas State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Ragin' Cajuns' last 26 October games.
* Under is 22-7-2 in Red Wolves' last 31 games against teams with winning records.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Red Wolves cruised to a 50-27 victory in their previous encounter last season at Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns lead the all-time series 21-19-1.

2. Arkansas State has turned the ball over just six times in its first six games.

3. Red Wolves WR Julian Jones needs just 49 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for his career.

Tuesday's Champions League betting cheat sheet

The UEFA Champions League group stage continues Tuesday with the third round of fixtures. Groups E, F, G and H are all in action, headlined by Borussia Dortmund traveling to London to face Group F leaders Arsenal.

Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund (+130, +260, +220)

Why bet Arsenal: Is there a better team in Europe right now? The Gunners are tops in the Barclays Premier League and are tops in this season's Group of Death with six points from two matches. In their last Champions League match, the Gunners made a very good Napoli side look incredibly pedestrian en route to a 2-0 victory. From the holding mids forward, the Gunners have capable goal scorers all over the pitch, including Aaron Ramsey, who has five goals (and three assists!) during his sensational Premier League campaign.

Key players out/doubtful: Mathieu Flamini, Abou Diaby, Theo Walcott, Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

Why bet Borussia Dortmund: Die Schwarzgelben got off to a slow start in group play with a loss at Napoli but the German side bounced back nicely, however, with a 3-0 victory at home versus Marseille. The club is currently second in the Bundesliga, just one point back of Bayern Munich. Newcomers Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have fit in nicely with the side, posting five and three goals respectively in the Bundesliga.

Key players out/doubtful: Sebastian Kehl, Ilkay Gündogan, Lukasz Piszczek

Key betting note: Arsenal prevailed 2-1 over Dortmund the last time the two clubs met at the Emirates (2011).


AC Milan v Barcelona (+550, +320, -175)

Why bet Milan: It has been a solid, if unspectacular, start to the Champions League campaign for Milan with a win versus Celtic in its first match, but a draw in Amsterdam against Ajax last time out. It's been a rough go of things domestically for the Rossoneri, as they sit eighth in Serie A. Star-striker Mario Balotelli could miss out on this match, however, as the fiery goalscorer picked up an injury before Milan's Serie A fixture with Udinese at the weekend.

Key players out/doubtful: Daniele Bonera, Giampaolo Pazzini, Mario Balotelli, Stephan El Shaarawy, Mattia De Sciglio, M'Baye Niang

Why bet Barcelona: Because it's Barca and they've essentially owned Milan in recent meetings. The Catalans are unbeaten in nine of the previous 10 matchups with the Italian giants in all competitions. They are coming off a peculiar 0-0 draw in La Liga against minnows Osasuna, but will look to rebound nicely in this Champions League tilt and extend their lead in Group H.

Key players out/doubtful: Ibrahim Afellay, Jordi Alba

Key betting note: Milan and Barca have played over the 2.5 goal total in four of the last six meetings between the two clubs.


Tuesday's other matches with odds:

Celtic v Ajax (+155, +250, +190)
FC Porto v Zenit St. Petersburg (-163, +310, +500)
FK Austria Vienna v Atletico Madrid (+1000, +400, -275)
Marseille v Napoli (+225, +230, +140)
Schalke v Chelsea (+240, +240, +130)
Steaua Bucharest v Basel (+180, +250, +160)

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The Bronze Boot is resting safely back in Fort Collins after the Colorado State Rams stomped the rival Wyoming Cowboys, 52-22 as 6.5-point road underdogs, in the Border War Saturday. That win marked CSU’s first victory over Wyoming since 2008 and was a rare high spot for the Rams this season. But what goes up, must come down.

Colorado State could have some trouble in paradise with a letdown looming in Hawaii. A trip to the islands has plagued even the best of football programs. And with CSU overconfident off a rivalry win and focusing more on the tropical surroundings than the Warriors, there is value in Hawaii as a 5.5-point home underdog. The home team has covered in each of the past four meetings between these teams.

Lookahead spot

The Boston Bruins close out a three-game road trip in Buffalo Wednesday, headlining one of two NHL primetime games. With wins in their first two stops on this trek – over Florida and Tampa Bay – the Bruins are 5-2-0-0 and right in the mix in the Atlantic Division. However, the reigning Eastern Conference champs could find themselves looking past the lowly Sabres and to a monster matchup on Thursday’s slate.

A game against last-place Buffalo pales in comparison to a home showdown with the San Jose Sharks, who enter the week with the best record in the NHL. San Jose has picked up points in its first eight games, going 7-0-0-1 out of the gate. Boston struggled against Buffalo last season, losing three of their five meetings. Bettors will get great home moneyline value on the Sabres Wednesday.

Schedule spot

The San Francisco 49ers are a long way from home in Week 8, taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, England Sunday. The Niners, who have to overcome an eight-hour time difference, left Nashville, where they beat the Titans Sunday, and traveled straight to the UK in preparation for this weekend’s contest.

The Niners organization has made this trip before, beating Denver 24-16 as 2-point favorites in Wembley Stadium back in 2010, but was a much more traveled team at that point in the season. This year, San Francisco has only ventured as far east as Tennessee and has played four of its first seven games in the Bay Area. On top of playing on the other side of the globe, the 49ers are hefty 17-point chalk versus the Jaguars Sunday.

College football line watch: Keep tabs on Baylor total
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Utah Utes (+7) @ USC Trojans

The season is not progressing quite as planned for either of these Pac-12 entries, both of which are no guarantee to get to the required number of wins for bowl eligibility (in SC’s case, that means seven wins this season due to the extra game at Hawaii).

But on the disappointment meter, the Trojans score higher, already enduring a coaching dismissal and dealing with a roster shorn of depth thanks to recent NCAA penalties.

More illuminating is the fact that the normally voracious SC support base has gone into seclusion and is not moving numbers in Las Vegas as it did when the Trojans were riding high a few years ago. And for good reason, as Troy is now 5-15 vs. the line since last season.

In addition, sources report that the last possible indicator of an SC turnaround was squandered last week in an unsightly 14-10 loss at Notre Dame, a game in which the Trojans couldn’t capitalize upon a KO of Irish QB Tommy Rees.

And now, with star WR Marqise Lee reinjuring his knee at South Bend, the SC offense could once again be minus its most field-stretching component.

Further, the loss at Notre Dame effectively condemns interim HC Ed Orgeron to caretaker status. Sources report that the only way Orgeron could have emerged as a potential candidate to retain the job on full-time basis would have been to run the table after Lane Kiffin’s late-September dismissal. Now, that’s not going to happen.

In fact, many Pac-12 observers believe SC’s season could possibly go up in a mushroom cloud, with uncertainties about a new regime causing assistants to plan their escape route and many players on scholarship to worry about their place in the upcoming new order. History suggests those sorts can be expected to send out transfer feelers, adding more potential distractions in the last half of this season.

It’s no box of chocolates in Salt Lake City, either, with Utah blowing a fourth quarter lead at Arizona last Saturday and perhaps minus QB Travis Wilson, who was pulled after suffering a hand injury at Tucson. Backup Adam Schulz, however, was serviceable in relief, and if Wilson can’t make the post this week, the effective drop-off at QB for the Utes should be minimal.

We suspect that because of those aforementioned Trojan pointspread shortcomings, there will be some anti-SC money showing up as Saturday approaches. Early in the week, however, several seven's were still available throughout Nevada.

We suggest Utah backers to grab the full seven ASAP, because the price likely drops below that key number as the week progresses, especially with the usual Trojan support base now staying away from the sports book windows in droves.

Spread to wait on

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7) at Oklahoma Sooners

Not a lot of early movement either way in the sports book action for this key Big 12 battle Saturday at Norman.

But given the parameters and recent history in this series, we suspect the money will be mostly drifting in Oklahoma’s direction at some point during the week.

Specifically, this is a price that we believe the public is likely to move (perhaps unwisely) toward the Sooners as we proceed to the Saturday kickoff.

Though unbeaten, Texas Tech remains a bit of a mystery, having taken advantage of a favorable schedule in the first half of the season.

Fueled by the football media, and aware of past late-season fades in Lubbock, many college football followers are understandably a bit wary of the Red Raiders and new HC Kliff Kingsbury. Popular opinion is that Texas Tech will soon get its comeuppance against a backloaded schedule that begins to toughen considerably this week with the trip to Norman.

And Oklahoma is still, well, Oklahoma, even though Bob Stoops’ troops have burned their backers with recent non-covers vs. Texas and Kansas.

Back home in Norman this week, however, the masses will likely be swayed by the trends in this back-and-forth series in which home field edge has proven a huge benefit.

In fact, the home team has won the last nine meetings between these teams, and covered the spread in seven in a row. That sort of angle is not to be lost on the masses, who could be expected to support the Sooners in greater numbers as the week progresses.

The fact there was no sharp money movement towards the Red Raiders at the onset of wagering suggests that any sharp money interested in Texas Tech is probably waiting until later in the week to make a move. And with the current price mostly sitting at OU -7, any Red Raider-inclined backers would probably rather sit tight and wait for the spread to float higher as we get closer to Saturday.

No reason for Texas Tech supporters to bite on this price as long as it rests on a key number. We’d advise Red Raider money to idle for the moment, as this spread likely moves above that key seven later in the week.

Total to watch

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks

We remain fascinated by the machinations involving totals on Baylor games, which continue to distort normal oddsmaker etiquette.

Once again last week against Iowa State, there was buy pressure on the Over involving the Bears, even with the oddsmakers hanging an initial total in the mid-to-high 70s for the game against the Cyclones.

Indeed, most books had the first total price at a sky-high 75 or 76 for Cyclones-Bears last week at Waco, but there was still considerable appetite for the Over as there were mostly 78.5s posted around Las Vegas at kickoff time.

The game landed on 78, with Art Briles’ team once again doing almost all of the scoring with 71 points. The Over was the winner on most of the tickets, moving the Waco bunch to 5-1 O/U this season.

As mentioned earlier, oddsmakers are making pre-emptive moves on totals involving video-football teams like Baylor and Oregon, posting heretofore unthinkable totals into the stratosphere from the outset. We suspect another initial total in the 70s for Bears-Jayhawks, with totals perhaps into the 80s for upcoming games vs. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

We’ll be interested to see if there is a bit more caution on the part of the wagering public regarding another Baylor Over this week, simply because the Bears are on the road. That’s because in their one game away from Waco, against Kansas State, Baylor was held to “only” 35 points, a far cry from the 71 ppg it is scoring at home. (The Wildcats were also the stiffest test to date the Bears have faced this season.)

If nothing else, it will be fascinating to see if the public continues to play the Over on Baylor games no matter how high the oddsmakers set the totals price.

NFL Week 8 opening line report: Rams big dogs without Bradford
By JASON LOGAN

Quarterbacks seem to be dropping like flies these days, and you can add St. Louis Rams passer Sam Bradford to that growing list.

The Rams, who fell 30-15 to Carolina Sunday, announced that Bradford would miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, leaving the offense in the hands of backup Kellen Clemens.

Oddsmakers opened St. Louis as a 10-point home underdog hosting the Seattle Seahawks Monday night and quickly took action on the road team, jumping up as high as St. Louis +11.

“One of the bigger moves so far,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “Bradford is done for the season, but we’re not sure how much of a downgrade Kellen Clemens is. Definitely worth a point less.”

Stewart says sharps love double-digit NFL underdogs – especially at home – and does expect some action to come back on the Rams as this spread gets higher and higher. The public has been in love with Seattle all season and will keep betting the Seahawks right until kickoff.

“It's a brutal Monday Night Football game for us to book because parlays, teasers and pretty much 75 percent of the straight action is going to be on the Seahawks,” says Stewart. “Needing this Rams team in this stand alone game is already giving me an ulcer.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Patriots are coming off a crushing overtime loss to the rival Jets Sunday, giving up an extra crack at the game-winning field goal due to a controversial call - Rule 9, Section 1, Article 3. New England opened as a 6.5-point home favorite, hosting Miami Sunday.

“We were debating 6.5 and seven, and instead of opening on that key number -7, we opened at -6.5 and put some added juice on the favorite,” says Stewart. “(New England head coach Bill) Belichick is great SU and ATS off a loss, but this Patriots team isn't as good as years past. Lots of holes on defense.”

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)

The Cowboys continue to be the big breadwinner this season, boosting their ATS mark to 6-1 after a solid performance against Philadelphia Sunday. However, books have their eye on Dallas heading into Week 8, and have tabbed the Lions as 3-point home chalk. Detroit is 1-2 in its last three games, coming off a loss to Cincinnati in Week 7.

“The Lions opened -3 because the spot for Cowboys is awful,” says Stewart. “They're off two key divisional wins as well as playing the second of back-to-back road games. Throw in all their injury issues and I believe the sharps will back the Lions here. But the public is already pounding ‘America's Team’."

Today's NHL Picks

Nashville at Minnesota

The Predators look to build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games versus the Wild. Nashville is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+130). Here are all of today's picks.

NCAA Football Game Picks

UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State

The Ragin' Cajuns look to build on their 21-8 ATS record in their last 29 road games. UL-Lafayette is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ragin' Cajuns favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-2 1/2).

NHL

Hot teams
-- Anaheim won its last seven games, scoring 29 goals.
-- Canadiens won four of their last five games.
-- Blackhawks won four of their last five games.
-- Predators won four of their last five games.
-- Phoenix won four of its last six games.


Cold teams
-- Maple Leafs lost their last two games after a 6-1 start, scoring three goals.
-- Vancouver lost four of its last six games. Islanders lost four of their last five.
-- New Jersey lost seven of its first eight games. Blue Jackets lost four of their last five.
-- Oilers lost five of their last six games.
-- Panthers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Minnesota lost its last three games, outscored 9-3.
-- Jets lost five of their last seven games. Washington lost four of last six games.
-- Flames are 2-3 on the road so far this season.


Series records
-- Ducks lost their last three games against Toronto.
-- Islanders lost four of their last six games with Vancouver.
-- Columbus/New Jersey split their last four meetings.
-- Canadiens won last two games with Edmonton, 5-3/4-1.
-- Chicago won last three games with Florida, outscoring Panthers 10-3.
-- Predators won eight of last eleven games with Minnesota.
-- Washington won last four games with Jets, outscoring them 18-4.
-- Flames won four of last five games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Vancouver games.
-- Four of last five New Jersey games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Nashville games.
-- Six of last seven Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Calgary games stayed under the total; five of last seven Phoenix games went over the total.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Columbus -140

Calgary-Phoenix over 5.5

SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks


102. Arkansas St. +3

Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had Np on Monday and has Np on Tuesday.

"Mr Chalk" is 0-1 -$55 for the week and 111-73 -$110 for the 2013 MLB season.

Ben lee lost on Monday with the Over 47 Vikings/Giants.

Ben lee is 0-1 -$55 for the week in the NFL.

PAUL LEINER

100* UL-Lafayette -2.5

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL NEW JERSEY at COLUMBUS
Play Against - A favorite against the money line (COLUMBUS) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%) in the first half of the season
60-38 since 1997. ( 61.2% 43.8 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 3.3 units )

NHL NEW JERSEY at COLUMBUS
Play Against - A favorite against the money line (COLUMBUS) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%)
71-51 since 1997. ( 58.2% 47.3 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 3.3 units )

NHL CHICAGO at FLORIDA
Play Against - Road Favorites of -200 to -300 against the money line (CHICAGO) good offensive team - averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game
21-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.8% 25.5 units )

Hondo

Ark st