[h=1]Opening Line: Early Week 8 moves[/h][h=3]Week 7 gambling reactions and examining Week 8 early line moves[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Another NFL week, another mix of alternatingly predictable and surprising results.
Depending on which games you were on, you might think that Week 7 has been as true to form as they come -- Chargers over Jaguars, Panthers over Rams, Falcons over Buccaneers, 49ers over Titans, Packers over Browns -- or maybe you thought it was unpredictable, as there were six upsets: Jets over Patriots, Bengals over Lions, Bills over Dolphins, Redskins over Bears (Chicago closed as a consensus 1-point road favorite), Cowboys over Eagles and, of course, the Colts knocking off the previously unbeaten Broncos.
But when all was said and done (and tabulated in the ViewFromVegas.com forum thread, where I grade against the consensus closing line in Vegas), sevens were wild as favorites and underdogs were 7-7 against the spread for Week 7 heading into Monday night's Vikings-Giants game. For the season, it's also dead even at 51-51-2 ATS with the two "missing" games being due to the fact that I graded the Lions-Redskins game in Week 3 and the Saints-Bears game in Week 5 as closing at pick 'em (thus no favorite or underdog by definition).
There was only one game where the point spread came into play (meaning the favorite won straight-up but did not cover), and it was also the most dramatic end-game result. The Chiefs were a 6.5-point favorite over the Texans and leading just 17-16 when Houston got the ball with 1:46 left inside its own 10-yard line. Everyone watching the game who was aware of the spread was thinking the same thing: "If Case Keenum follows in Matt Schaub's and T.J. Yates' footsteps and throws a pick-six, the Chiefs will cover." Well, it wasn't an interception, but Keenum fumbled and Derrick Johnson picked up the ball and tumbled into the end zone but was ruled down by contact at the 1-yard line.
Those who laid the points were hoping the Chiefs would punch the ball in for the spread-covering TD, but instead they took three kneel-downs (the correct strategic decision instead of scoring and giving the Texans a chance to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion) to remain undefeated.
On May 19, the LVH SuperBook opened its over/under season win totals with the Chiefs at 7. They've matched that with nine games to spare and need just one more win to go over.
Let's see what else we learned over the weekend and look at the early line movement from the Week 8 openers to get us started looking ahead.<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]
1. Don't automatically fade rookie or untested QBs
It used to be that it was a universally accepted wiseguy rule that you would bet against rookie QBs (or those inexperienced at the pro level). But we've seen in recent years that that's no longer the case. The wide-open offenses in college have helped prepare quarterbacks for the NFL, and it's not just the blue-chip prospects like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III who have had immediate success. This year, we've seen Geno Smith step right in for the Jets, Thad Lewis come off the practice squad to cover two weeks in a row for the Bills and Keenum get the cover against the Chiefs on Sunday.
2. Who's hot/Who's not
The Chiefs' noncover dropped them to 5-2 ATS (also didn't cover when they beat the Cowboys by the exact same score of 17-16 in Week 2 as a 3-point home favorite). The Cowboys are now alone with the best ATS record at 6-1, followed by the Chargers at 5-1-1 and the Chiefs, Seahawks and Jets at 5-2. The Texans-Chiefs result was Houston's first point-spread cover of the season, and it's tied with the Jaguars for the league's worst ATS mark. The Bears are 1-5-1 while the Buccaneers and Giants (who face the Vikings on Monday night) are 1-5 ATS.
In totals wagering, the Broncos stayed perfect at 7-0 with the over in their 39-33 loss to the Colts on Sunday night. The Vikings have the next-best over record at 4-0-1 heading into Monday night. The Bears, who lost 45-41 to the Redskins, are 6-1 with the over (along with the Rams), while the Falcons are 5-1. The Chiefs are the top under team at 6-1 with the Raiders at 5-1 and the Ravens at 5-2.
3. Be careful riding those Colts
The Colts are likely to be the NFL's "flavor of the month." Part of that is deserved, as they've pulled outright upsets of the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos -- the top three favorites in the Super Bowl future books in Vegas before the season started. But in this league, where teams can go from looking like complete trash one week to looking unbeatable the next, the opposite is also true. Don't forget that this is the same team that lost 19-9 to the Chargers just last Monday night in its previous prime-time appearance, nearly lost to the Raiders in Week 1 and did lose to the Dolphins in Week 2. The Colts are 5-2 and lead the Titans by two games in the AFC South, but they're a barely above-average 4-3 ATS and sure to be overpriced in their upcoming games.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday the LVH put up its Week 8 openers. The only game it had off the board was the Giants-Eagles matchup due to the uncertain quarterback situation in Philadelphia after Nick Foles was removed for a head injury in the Eagles' 17-3 loss to the Cowboys. Oddsmakers will likely wait to see whether Michael Vick will be ready to return from his hamstring injury.
The LVH went ahead with a line of Seahawks minus-10 against the Rams next Monday night as it was assumed Sam Bradford, who left Sunday's game with a knee injury, would be doubtful to start the next game. Later Sunday night, it was announced that Bradford had a torn ACL and would be out the rest of the season. We'll see if the number gets further adjusted depending on whether the Rams turn the reins over to backup Kellen Clemens, sign a free agent or trade for a quarterback.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Week 8 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Panthers -7
Cardinals (Thursday)
49ers -15.5
Jaguars (at London)
Cowboys
Lions -3
Giants
Eagles OFF
Browns
Chiefs -7
Bills
Saints -12.5
Dolphins
Patriots -6.5
Jets
Bengals -6.5
Steelers -3
Raiders
Redskins
Broncos -13.5
Falcons
Cardinals -2.5 (-120)
Packers -6
Vikings
Seahawks -10
Rams (Monday)
<!-- end inline 2 -->Panthers minus-7 at Buccaneers (Thursday): Most offshore books went with 6.5 while the Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas went with 6. It looks like it will end up right in the middle at 6.5, though we'll see if the public bets it back to a touchdown later in the week.
49ers minus-15.5 versus Jaguars (in London): This line opened all over the place, with a low of 13.5 at BetOnline and a high of 17.5 (with heavy juice on the 'dog) at 5Dimes. The LVH opened right in the middle at 15.5, but it got bet up to 16.5 within half an hour, according to the Don Best live-odds screen. A line of 17 certainly looks possible.
Cowboys at Lions minus-3: This line opened a pretty universal 3 and doesn't look like it's going to move.
Giants at Eagles OFF: See "Off-the-board report" above, plus the Giants' performance Monday night could certainly influence what line is posted.
Browns at Chiefs minus-7: The Wynn opened at Chiefs minus-8, but it got bet down to 7.5 on Sunday night. The LVH was still holding the line at 7, but this looks like it will probably waver between 7 and 7.5 throughout the week (with the offshore books that skew their lines to discourage teaser play going to 9 or 9.5 with heavy juice on the 'dog).
Bills at Saints minus-12.5: This line is in no-man's land between 10 and 14, and it usually doesn't take much in the way of bets to get books to move the line aggressively. Even though the Saints are a popular team, the Bills have received their share of action coming off back-to-back covers.
Dolphins at Patriots minus-6.5: William Hill went with Patriots minus-7, but that got bet down, so even with early money it looks like 6.5 will be the most common number. If you want to grab the Dolphins plus-7, you'll probably need to be right near the betting counters in Vegas (or at your computer or logged into your smartphone app) to grab it.
Jets at Bengals minus-6.5: This looks similar to the Dolphins-Patriots line in that it could bounce back and forth between 6.5 and 7.
Steelers minus-3 at Raiders: This opened with the Steelers, who have won and covered two straight after losing their first four games, as a 3-point favorite, but we've seen early money show for the Raiders coming off their bye. Most books are at Steelers minus-3 (even money) with the Raiders plus-3 (minus-120 instead of the standard minus-110).
Redskins at Broncos minus-13.5: This was posted at the LVH prior to the Broncos' game Sunday night while most books keep the games off the board that involve the Sunday/Monday night games. The Broncos lost, but I wouldn't expect this line to move too much, as most bettors will expect the Broncos to bounce back.
Falcons at Cardinals minus-2.5 (minus-120): The added juice on a line of minus-2.5 often indicates that the bookmakers think it's more likely to go to 3, but even though the Wynn opened with 3, early indications are that the line is more likely to drop. Basically, if you're able to shop around, it looks like you should be able to get plus-3 on the Falcons if you like or Cardinals minus-2.5 (though you might need to pay the added juice).
Packers minus-6 at Vikings: With the Vikings playing Monday night, the vast majority of books don't have a line posted. While the LVH went with Packers minus-6, the William Hill books went with 6.5. Neither has budged.
Seahawks minus-10 at Rams: See the "Off the board report" above. The LVH and William Hill both went with Seahawks minus-10. The LVH was bet to 10.5 within 23 minutes while William Hill didn't go to 10.5 until after the news broke that Bradford was definitely out.
So there's the opening look at the Week 8 lines. Join us Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
LAS VEGAS -- Another NFL week, another mix of alternatingly predictable and surprising results.
Depending on which games you were on, you might think that Week 7 has been as true to form as they come -- Chargers over Jaguars, Panthers over Rams, Falcons over Buccaneers, 49ers over Titans, Packers over Browns -- or maybe you thought it was unpredictable, as there were six upsets: Jets over Patriots, Bengals over Lions, Bills over Dolphins, Redskins over Bears (Chicago closed as a consensus 1-point road favorite), Cowboys over Eagles and, of course, the Colts knocking off the previously unbeaten Broncos.
But when all was said and done (and tabulated in the ViewFromVegas.com forum thread, where I grade against the consensus closing line in Vegas), sevens were wild as favorites and underdogs were 7-7 against the spread for Week 7 heading into Monday night's Vikings-Giants game. For the season, it's also dead even at 51-51-2 ATS with the two "missing" games being due to the fact that I graded the Lions-Redskins game in Week 3 and the Saints-Bears game in Week 5 as closing at pick 'em (thus no favorite or underdog by definition).
There was only one game where the point spread came into play (meaning the favorite won straight-up but did not cover), and it was also the most dramatic end-game result. The Chiefs were a 6.5-point favorite over the Texans and leading just 17-16 when Houston got the ball with 1:46 left inside its own 10-yard line. Everyone watching the game who was aware of the spread was thinking the same thing: "If Case Keenum follows in Matt Schaub's and T.J. Yates' footsteps and throws a pick-six, the Chiefs will cover." Well, it wasn't an interception, but Keenum fumbled and Derrick Johnson picked up the ball and tumbled into the end zone but was ruled down by contact at the 1-yard line.
Those who laid the points were hoping the Chiefs would punch the ball in for the spread-covering TD, but instead they took three kneel-downs (the correct strategic decision instead of scoring and giving the Texans a chance to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion) to remain undefeated.
On May 19, the LVH SuperBook opened its over/under season win totals with the Chiefs at 7. They've matched that with nine games to spare and need just one more win to go over.
Let's see what else we learned over the weekend and look at the early line movement from the Week 8 openers to get us started looking ahead.<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]Takeaways[/h]
1. Don't automatically fade rookie or untested QBs
It used to be that it was a universally accepted wiseguy rule that you would bet against rookie QBs (or those inexperienced at the pro level). But we've seen in recent years that that's no longer the case. The wide-open offenses in college have helped prepare quarterbacks for the NFL, and it's not just the blue-chip prospects like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III who have had immediate success. This year, we've seen Geno Smith step right in for the Jets, Thad Lewis come off the practice squad to cover two weeks in a row for the Bills and Keenum get the cover against the Chiefs on Sunday.
2. Who's hot/Who's not
The Chiefs' noncover dropped them to 5-2 ATS (also didn't cover when they beat the Cowboys by the exact same score of 17-16 in Week 2 as a 3-point home favorite). The Cowboys are now alone with the best ATS record at 6-1, followed by the Chargers at 5-1-1 and the Chiefs, Seahawks and Jets at 5-2. The Texans-Chiefs result was Houston's first point-spread cover of the season, and it's tied with the Jaguars for the league's worst ATS mark. The Bears are 1-5-1 while the Buccaneers and Giants (who face the Vikings on Monday night) are 1-5 ATS.
In totals wagering, the Broncos stayed perfect at 7-0 with the over in their 39-33 loss to the Colts on Sunday night. The Vikings have the next-best over record at 4-0-1 heading into Monday night. The Bears, who lost 45-41 to the Redskins, are 6-1 with the over (along with the Rams), while the Falcons are 5-1. The Chiefs are the top under team at 6-1 with the Raiders at 5-1 and the Ravens at 5-2.
3. Be careful riding those Colts
The Colts are likely to be the NFL's "flavor of the month." Part of that is deserved, as they've pulled outright upsets of the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos -- the top three favorites in the Super Bowl future books in Vegas before the season started. But in this league, where teams can go from looking like complete trash one week to looking unbeatable the next, the opposite is also true. Don't forget that this is the same team that lost 19-9 to the Chargers just last Monday night in its previous prime-time appearance, nearly lost to the Raiders in Week 1 and did lose to the Dolphins in Week 2. The Colts are 5-2 and lead the Titans by two games in the AFC South, but they're a barely above-average 4-3 ATS and sure to be overpriced in their upcoming games.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday the LVH put up its Week 8 openers. The only game it had off the board was the Giants-Eagles matchup due to the uncertain quarterback situation in Philadelphia after Nick Foles was removed for a head injury in the Eagles' 17-3 loss to the Cowboys. Oddsmakers will likely wait to see whether Michael Vick will be ready to return from his hamstring injury.
The LVH went ahead with a line of Seahawks minus-10 against the Rams next Monday night as it was assumed Sam Bradford, who left Sunday's game with a knee injury, would be doubtful to start the next game. Later Sunday night, it was announced that Bradford had a torn ACL and would be out the rest of the season. We'll see if the number gets further adjusted depending on whether the Rams turn the reins over to backup Kellen Clemens, sign a free agent or trade for a quarterback.
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Week 8 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Panthers -7
Cardinals (Thursday)
49ers -15.5
Jaguars (at London)
Cowboys
Lions -3
Giants
Eagles OFF
Browns
Chiefs -7
Bills
Saints -12.5
Dolphins
Patriots -6.5
Jets
Bengals -6.5
Steelers -3
Raiders
Redskins
Broncos -13.5
Falcons
Cardinals -2.5 (-120)
Packers -6
Vikings
Seahawks -10
Rams (Monday)
<!-- end inline 2 -->Panthers minus-7 at Buccaneers (Thursday): Most offshore books went with 6.5 while the Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas went with 6. It looks like it will end up right in the middle at 6.5, though we'll see if the public bets it back to a touchdown later in the week.
49ers minus-15.5 versus Jaguars (in London): This line opened all over the place, with a low of 13.5 at BetOnline and a high of 17.5 (with heavy juice on the 'dog) at 5Dimes. The LVH opened right in the middle at 15.5, but it got bet up to 16.5 within half an hour, according to the Don Best live-odds screen. A line of 17 certainly looks possible.
Cowboys at Lions minus-3: This line opened a pretty universal 3 and doesn't look like it's going to move.
Giants at Eagles OFF: See "Off-the-board report" above, plus the Giants' performance Monday night could certainly influence what line is posted.
Browns at Chiefs minus-7: The Wynn opened at Chiefs minus-8, but it got bet down to 7.5 on Sunday night. The LVH was still holding the line at 7, but this looks like it will probably waver between 7 and 7.5 throughout the week (with the offshore books that skew their lines to discourage teaser play going to 9 or 9.5 with heavy juice on the 'dog).
Bills at Saints minus-12.5: This line is in no-man's land between 10 and 14, and it usually doesn't take much in the way of bets to get books to move the line aggressively. Even though the Saints are a popular team, the Bills have received their share of action coming off back-to-back covers.
Dolphins at Patriots minus-6.5: William Hill went with Patriots minus-7, but that got bet down, so even with early money it looks like 6.5 will be the most common number. If you want to grab the Dolphins plus-7, you'll probably need to be right near the betting counters in Vegas (or at your computer or logged into your smartphone app) to grab it.
Jets at Bengals minus-6.5: This looks similar to the Dolphins-Patriots line in that it could bounce back and forth between 6.5 and 7.
Steelers minus-3 at Raiders: This opened with the Steelers, who have won and covered two straight after losing their first four games, as a 3-point favorite, but we've seen early money show for the Raiders coming off their bye. Most books are at Steelers minus-3 (even money) with the Raiders plus-3 (minus-120 instead of the standard minus-110).
Redskins at Broncos minus-13.5: This was posted at the LVH prior to the Broncos' game Sunday night while most books keep the games off the board that involve the Sunday/Monday night games. The Broncos lost, but I wouldn't expect this line to move too much, as most bettors will expect the Broncos to bounce back.
Falcons at Cardinals minus-2.5 (minus-120): The added juice on a line of minus-2.5 often indicates that the bookmakers think it's more likely to go to 3, but even though the Wynn opened with 3, early indications are that the line is more likely to drop. Basically, if you're able to shop around, it looks like you should be able to get plus-3 on the Falcons if you like or Cardinals minus-2.5 (though you might need to pay the added juice).
Packers minus-6 at Vikings: With the Vikings playing Monday night, the vast majority of books don't have a line posted. While the LVH went with Packers minus-6, the William Hill books went with 6.5. Neither has budged.
Seahawks minus-10 at Rams: See the "Off the board report" above. The LVH and William Hill both went with Seahawks minus-10. The LVH was bet to 10.5 within 23 minutes while William Hill didn't go to 10.5 until after the news broke that Bradford was definitely out.
So there's the opening look at the Week 8 lines. Join us Friday with Tuley's Take after we see the market settle on all these games.
