Service Plays Sunday 10/27/13

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GL!

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

The New Orleans Saints aren’t the type of team to let things slide.

The Saints, fueled by last year’s “Bounty Gate”-bogged season and suspension of head coach Sean Payton, seem destined to make a run at the Super Bowl – throwing it in the face of the NFL.

The next step in their revenge plot is a home win over the Buffalo Bills, who unfortunately walk into a buzz saw in Week 8. New Orleans has been fuming for two weeks after letting a win slip away against New England in Week 6 and has had a bye week to make sure it never, ever happens again.

Despite this motivation, oddsmakers are only giving the visiting Bills 12.5 points Sunday, keeping the high-powered Saints below two-touchdown favorites. Tight end Jimmy Graham is still questionable with a foot injury but Brees has plenty of other weapons to choose from, including emerging rookie WR Kenny Stills.

Sure, Buffalo has shown some fight in recent weeks and is coming off a win over Miami, but New Orleans is the class of the NFC and has the firepower and new-founded defensive prowess to turn this non-conference clash into a blowout.

The Saints aren’t taking it easy on the Bills in the “Big Easy” this weekend.

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL Week 8 odds have been on the board for a few days now, and early action has already dictated some major moves. We talk to Aron Black of Bet365.com about the notable adjustments in our NFL mid-week line moves:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders – Open: +3, Move: +2.5

The Steelers seem to have it figured out, winning back-to-back games after starting the season 0-4. However, early action has faded Pittsburgh traveling across the country to Oakland in Week 8, pushing this spread below the key number of a field goal.

There are numerous injuries to the Steelers coming off a hard-fought game against rival Baltimore, but despite the move to 2.5, Steelers money is outnumbering Raiders action 2/1.

“It's a tough road game for Pittsburgh but they get the nod on odds as they have the more solid setup, and the QB edge,” Black tells Covers. “As long as Dick LeBeau runs the defense, they will always be tough to score against for a young quarterback like Pryor.”

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -9.5, Move: -7, Move: -8

The Cleveland Browns drew the early action against a Chiefs squad that isn’t as good as its undefeated record would lead you to believe, trimming the opening line as many as 2.5 points at some books. Then, Cleveland announced it would go with veteran Jason Campbell under center, tacking a point on the spread.

“The line looks a tad light for a 3-4 team that’s struggling and going to Arrowhead Stadium. However, this game more about defense than offense,” says Black. “Kansas City undefeated, but lighting up scoreboards on offense is not their forte. Shutting down other offenses and being effective enough on offense is. Cleveland may have their own struggles scoring, but the defense has been the bright spot.”

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -6.5, Move: -7

Are the Jets destined for a letdown after their controversial overtime win against New England? Some books have moved to a touchdown with this spread. Cincinnati stumbled a bit to start the year but has strung together three straight wins. However, books are wondering how much of a hole the injury to star CB Leon Hall will leave.

“Maybe the 6.5 looks good on New York for some,” says Black. “Action so far is split, but there are more siding with the points than the Cincy cover at about a 2/1 clip so far. The bulk of money is still to come and we will see Cincinnati action as the week goes on.”

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +9.5, Move: +10, Move: +9

The Packers limp into this NFC North rivalry without many of Aaron Rodgers’ top targets. James Jones, Jermichael Finley, and Randall Cobb are all out with injuries.

The Vikings, on the other hand, looked terrible under new QB Josh Freeman in a loss to New York on Monday Night Football. Freeman reportedly suffered a head injury, leaving Christian Ponder as the likely Week 8 starter. Action on Green Bay is eclipsing money on Minnesota at a 3/1 rate.

“Green Bay has lost some very good receivers, but running back Eddie Lacy is giving Aaron Rodgers a solid run game the last three games to balance the attack,” says Black.

NFL line watch: Keep tabs on Skins-Broncos spread, total
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Washington Redskins (+14) at Denver Broncos

This line opened at +14, but is dropping. There are some 13.5s on the board and 13s as well. If you're planning on getting down on Washington in this matchup, you may want to jump on board right now.

The reason this line is moving is obvious: The public finally saw the Broncos lose and that Peyton Manning is in fact a human. Denver's prolific offense has clearly helped in masking a suspect defense, but that veil has now unquestionably been lifted.

After dropping 45 on the Bears, bettors are likely to continue to hammer the visitors as the week wares on.

Spread to wait on

San Francisco 49ers (-17.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The 49ers arrived in England for their game with the Jaguars Monday. This lined opened at -17.5, but has already started to drop, with 17s and 16.5s making an appearance now as well. If you're planning on wagering on San Francisco this Sunday, you may want to wait a bit closer to kickoff.

The one area were the Jaguars have actually been decent is on the road, going 1-3 ATS away from friendly confines compared to 0-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville has totaled 39 points in its last two road contests, at St. Louis and Denver respectively.

Travel across the pond is a factor that must always be taken into account. The bottom line though is that it's a detriment for both teams. If you're a situational handicapper, it's pretty obvious why both the public and the sharps are jumping on this sky-high number for the Jags.

This sets up as a classic lookahead/let down spot for the 49ers, who will enjoy their bye after lowly Jacksonville.

Total to watch

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (56.5)

If you're planning on playing the Under, consider grabbing the line now. As of writing, there are still some 56.5s on the board, but 55.5 predominates. At some point in the season, the Broncos will need their defense to step up and win a game for them. Here's the perfect opponent.

The Redskins are coming off a 45-41 shootout over the Bears last week but have gone 1-2 O/U on the road this year. Both the sharps and the public saw Manning struggle at times last week and must now finally believe the veteran is slowing down after his manic start to the season.

DCI

Sunday, October 27, 2013
Dallas 26.8 at DETROIT 27.6, 1:00 pm ET
Cleveland 12.0 at KANSAS CITY 20.3, 1:00 pm ET
Miami 17.1 at NEW ENGLAND 26.3, 1:00 pm ET
Buffalo 20.8 at NEW ORLEANS 32.1, 1:00 pm ET
N.Y. Giants 23.5 at PHILADELPHIA 25.9, 1:00 pm ET
San Francisco 35.7 at JACKSONVILLE 8.4, 1:00 pm ET
Pittsburgh 19.5 at OAKLAND 15.0, 4:05 pm ET
N.Y. Jets 12.4 at CINCINNATI 25.3, 4:05 pm ET
Washington 28.6 at DENVER 44.1, 4:25 pm ET
Atlanta 22.1 at ARIZONA 24.8, 4:25 pm ET
Green Bay 33.8 at MINNESOTA 17.4, 8:30 pm ET

Today's NFL Picks

Green Bay at Minnesota

The Vikings look to take advantage of a Green Bay team that is coming off a 31-13 win over Cleveland and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Minnesota is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9). Here are all of this week's picks.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, October 27

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 7) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (4 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 3) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (1 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 0) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 1) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (3 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/27/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-117 ATS (+25.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 3) at CINCINNATI (5 - 2) - 10/27/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 113-146 ATS (-47.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 4) at OAKLAND (2 - 4) - 10/27/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-33 ATS (+21.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-67 ATS (-37.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-66 ATS (-42.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 4) at DENVER (6 - 1) - 10/27/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (2 - 4) at ARIZONA (3 - 4) - 10/27/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ATLANTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 2) at MINNESOTA (1 - 5) - 10/27/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, October 27

San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 8-26 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders
Detroit: 11-3 OVER as a favorite

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 32-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points

Cleveland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Kansas City: 13-4 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
New Orleans: 19-8 ATS in games played on turf

Miami at New England, 1:00 ET
Miami: 2-11 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite
New England: 11-2 ATS off a division game

NY Jets at Cincinnati, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 1-9 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 12-2 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game

Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 58-33 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Oakland: 7-21 ATS in home games off a road loss against a division rival

Washington at Denver, 4:25 ET
Washington: 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Denver: 0-7 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 4 straight games

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 31-50 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Arizona: 20-7 ATS in home games off a home loss

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS versus division opponents
Minnesota: 55-34 OVER in weeks 5 through 9

NFL

Week 8

Trend Report

Sunday, October 27

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the NY Giants last 14 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 11 of San Francisco's last 14 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games on the road
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. CINCINNATI
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Football Jesus text : Lions in NFL Sunday. 18-7-1 so far this season

BURNS.. lions, eagles

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington at Denver (Sunday 10/27 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 59.5 (-110) at Sportsbook.com

There is no question that the Denver Broncos are an efficient offensive team, but what Peyton manning was doing was simply unsustainable. He has cooled off a bit, and teams are learning from film what the Broncos are doing and are making some adjustments. Manning took a lot of big hits last week, and missed practice on Wednesday. The ball simply didn't look good coming out against Indianapolis. The Colts showed a recipe for disrupting Manning and you can be sure the rest of the league took notice. Washington does get good pressure, so I think they can hurry Manning enough to take a couple of drives away from him. Washington is going to try and run the ball here to try to shorten the game and keep the Broncos offense on the sidelines. And, running the ball is what Washington does well (4th in the league in rushing yards per game and 2nd in yards per carry). But, Denver has done well against the run, so it will be interesting to see this one play out. Washington is 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 vs. a winning home team. They are also 9-2 UNDER the past couple of seasons when facing great offensive teams (those like Denver averaging 5.7+ yards per play). And, since the arrival of Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are a perfect 8-0 UNDER on the road vs. winning teams. These expected shootouts, much like Philly and Dallas last week, often don't pan out. Take the UNDER.

BeatYourBookie Football Plays

Sunday

10* Play Kansas City -8 over Cleveland (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Cleveland is 1-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in their last game
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points


10* Play Detroit -3 over Dallas (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Dallas is 1-6 ATS coming off two or more UNDER the totals
Dallas is 1-6 ATS coming off a road win in their last game


10* Play Pittsburgh -2 over Oakland (NFL TOP PLAY)
4:00 PM EST

Oakland is 36-67 ATS when the line posted is between +3 to -3
Oakland is 15-30 ATS when playing as a home underdog of 7 points or less


10* Play Green Bay -9 over Minnesota (NFL TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Green Bay is 12-2 ATS vs. division opponents the last three seasons
Green Bay is 13-2 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in their last four games

Posting NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP early so there isnt ten requests:
4* New Orleans 3* Dallas Over 2* Den Over
3* New England 3* Cinn Under 2* Atl Over
2* Pittsburgh 3* KC Under
83% System Play Pittsburgh THIS IS MAGAZINE NOT LTP

Las Vegas Hilton Contest

Winning Points (The Newsletter)

4* Detroit 38-17
3* Atlanta 31-16
2* San Fran 33-6
2* Cleveland 17-14

Sports Reporter ( The Newsletter )

Best Bet: New Orleans 41-17
Best Bet: Atlanta 27-17

Recommended: Cincy 29-14

Hilton Contest

Top Contestant
(25-9-1): Cincy / Pitt / Wash / Minny / Seattle

Last Place Contestant (minimum of 35 selections)
(7-28): Dallas / New England / NY Jets / Atlanta / Minny

DALLAS VS. DETROIT
October 27, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: top bet @ -3 -115 Detroit
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 27 - 1:00 PM

I'm playing on DETROIT. Off a loss vs. Cincinnati, their second in the last three games, the Lions know they can't afford another loss. Not if they want to keep up in the competitive NFC North. That's particularly true given that they've got back-to-back road games on deck. I expect them to bring their "A Game."
*
The Lions are outgaining teams by a 430 to 389.3 average margin here at Detroit, outscoring them 32.7 to 27.7.*
*
The Lions are 4-2 ATS when laying points this season. Over the past couple of seasons, they've gone 2-1 ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points and 7-4 ATS in the month of October.*
*
The Cowboys, who are being outgained by an average margin of 365.7 to 334.3 on the road, are off back-to-back double-digits victories and three straight covers.*Note that the Cowboys, who may be ripe for a letdown after the big division wins, are*only 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were off two or more consecutive victories, 4-8 ATS off a division game.*
*
Also, note that the Cowboys will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time this season.*Last season, the only time that they won the front-end of back-to-back road games, they followed it up by losing 27-7 in the back-end. (The two times that they lost the front-end of b2b road games, they won the back-end.)*
*
I look for the Lions to finish on top, covering the small number along the way. 9*
N.Y. JETS VS. CINCINNATI
October 27, 2013 - 4:05 PM

Pick: sbgglobal @ -6.5 -110 Cincinnati
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 27 - 4:05 PM

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Jets last week when they upset the Patriots. They're on the road now though, facing a surging Bengals team which has won three straight. I expect them to receive a reality check.*
*
Note that the Jets lost 38-13 when off their previous division win. They're 2-4 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons.*
*
The Bengals are undefeated here. Not only did they beat the hated Steelers (a team which just beat the Jets by double-digits a couple of weeks ago) but the Bengals also beat the Patriots and the Packers here. Needless to say, they won't be intimidated by the Jets.*
*
The Bengals outscore teams by a 22.3 to 15.3 average margin here. The Jets are being outscored by an average margin of 26.3 to 17.7 on the road.*
*
The Jets are 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. During the same stretch, the Bengals are 4-1 ATS as home favorites*in the 3.5 to 7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion Sunday afternoon. *9*
N.Y. GIANTS VS. PHILADELPHIA
October 27, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: sportsinteraction @ -6 -105 Philadelphia
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 27 - 1:00 PM

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Giants are off back-to-back covers and finally got themselves a victory. They've still some serious problems though and I expect them to come back down to earth on Sunday.*
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These teams met at NY a few weeks ago. The Eagles won by 15 points, 36-21. They had a 140-53 edge on the ground.*
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Sure, the Giants will be motivated to avenge the earlier loss and to snap their 8-game road losing streak. However, with an 0-3 mark at home, 0-9 since last season, the Eagles should be every bit as motivated to finally deliver the Philly faithful a victory. Also, while the playoffs are extremely unlikely for the Giants, they're still very much a possibility for the Eagles.*
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While they won as favorites in their last game, the Giants are 1-4 ATS as underdogs, 0-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.*
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Vick, who is 4-2 as a starter against the Giants, while with Philly is back. He had this to say:*"I've pretty much set my mind to play the way I want to play," he said. "I'm giving it everything I got. No holding back. I don't want to play that way."
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I expect a win and cover for the home team. 9*

Scott Ferrall paid picks

Miami

NEW ENGLAND -6 ½ (1)



SAN FRANCISCO -16 ½ (2)

Jacksonville



Cleveland

KANSAS CITY -7 (3)



Buffalo

NEW ORLEANS -11 ½ (4)



DALLAS +3 (5)

Detroit



Jets

CINCINNATI -6 ½ (6)