Need the smartest minds on this one.... parlay hedge question

whisperluncnh · Oct 26, 2013

St. Louis Cardinals +103 for Game WINNER
Carolina Panthers -6 -122 for Game WINNER
New York Giants +195 for Game PENDING
New Orleans Saints -530 for Game PENDING
Central Florida -14 -110 for 1st Half WINNER
Houston +3½ -110 for 1st Half WINNER

this is for risk of 100 to get back $4,700

two games left in the NFL

Giants ML is the tough one.. but saints is no lock

they both go at same time

How and the heck would you hedge?
or would you hedge?
its only 100 at risk but is there a way to do this to guarantee some decent money?

TopShelf11 · Oct 26, 2013

I'd bet $2300 on the Eagles ML....and roll the dice with the Saints.

JaBrady · Oct 26, 2013

TopShelf11 said:
I'd bet $2300 on the Eagles ML....and roll the dice with the Saints.

was just going to say something similar but the other question is do you have the means to bet 2300 on a play?

Willie99 · Oct 26, 2013

roll with the Saints, play Eagles ML (I wouldn't do $ 2,300 though)

look for some in game action or at least halftime action which may give you some great opportunities

whisperluncnh · Oct 26, 2013

yes have the funds to do those amounts what happens then if i play 2300 on ml eagles? what would guarantee be? then watch saints shit the bed...

JaBrady · Oct 26, 2013

profit dime basically

HacheMan · Oct 26, 2013

Wow I'm surprised at some of the suggestions.

No way you should risk a high dollar amount on the Philadelphia ML.
We all know that both the Giants and Eagles are unpredictable and anything can happen.
If the Giants suddenly show up, then you're not only out your original $100, bu another $2300 (or whatever amount) as well.

I think your have to ride it out.
Yes the the hedge could work out accordingly but I believe it's too risky.

The only other thing I would consider is Willie's advice on a possible halftime wager, or in-game action which may provide opportunities. ..

JaBrady · Oct 26, 2013

just trying to answer his question not give him advice on guaranteed decent money

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

Hache Man said:
Wow I'm surprised at some of the suggestions.

No way you should risk a high dollar amount on the Philadelphia ML.
We all know that both the Giants and Eagles are unpredictable and anything can happen.
If the Giants suddenly show up, then you're not only out your original $100, bu another $2300 (or whatever amount) as well.

I think your have to ride it out.
Yes the the hedge could work out accordingly but I believe it's too risky.

The only other thing I would consider is Willie's advice on a possible halftime wager, or in-game action which may provide opportunities. ..

What do you mean Hache, he would win his parlay (assuming NO wins). How would he be out the initiall 100? If the Giants show up he's likely gonna WIN 4700 minus whatever he decided to hedge on Philly if anything...

whisperluncnh · Oct 26, 2013

thanks guys. its only 100 risk but i would like to gurantee couple dimes if possible. like i said earlier saints should win but crazy things can happen...not sure why i even have nyg in there.... was not thinking it would matter i guess now it does.... i could throw couple 100 on bills and get a nice return

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

Yeah I'd personally put like 1k/400 on philly ML and 300/1130 on bills ML...

If your parlay wins you're still up 3400
philly and NO wins you break even
NYG win but NO botches your parlay you basically break even...

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

I'm running this through Excel Solver right now to find the maximum guaranteed win you can have...one sec

whisperluncnh · Oct 26, 2013

Harry i dont follow what i philly wins and saints win i lose parlay... i win ml philly but lose bills ml bet i gain nothing..
WHAT SUCKS IS BOTH GAMES GO AT SAME TIME

100 TO WIN 4700 is sweet. but id like to gaurantee the best for sure profit... its impossible cause of same kick off time and even tho saints look golden that means nothing to me....... no way to safely hedge with to games starting at same time without risk losing it all..... gosh i hate the NYG play now....

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

whisperluncnh said:
Harry i dont follow what i philly wins and saints win i lose parlay... i win ml philly but lose bills ml bet i gain nothing..
WHAT SUCKS IS BOTH GAMES GO AT SAME TIME

100 TO WIN 4700 is sweet. but id like to gaurantee the best for sure profit... its impossible cause of same kick off time and even tho saints look golden that means nothing to me....... no way to safely hedge with to games starting at same time without risk losing it all..... gosh i hate the NYG play now....

Yeah like I said in my post you would break even if Philly wins. My scenario basically gave you a no-risk situation that maximized your win if the parlay hits.

That may not be what you want to do.

Max guarantee coming up next post...

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

The most you can GUARANTEE at this point is $406.10 by betting the amounts below, assuming the moneylines I plugged in.

The most you can guarantee if you're assuming NO wins is $1,311.49 by betting the amounts below, assuming the moneylines I plugged in. As you can see though this scenario really leaves you up shit's creek if NYG win but NO blows your parlay.

I can send you the Excel sheet so you can plug in different odds or manually change the "Risk" amounts. I ran 2 solver scenarios that auto-adjusted the 2 risk amounts: the first assumed you wanted to maximize the total guarantee (anything goes) and the 2nd assumed you wanted to maximize the guarantee while assuming NO won...

TopShelf11 · Oct 26, 2013

Hache Man said:
Wow I'm surprised at some of the suggestions.

No way you should risk a high dollar amount on the Philadelphia ML.
We all know that both the Giants and Eagles are unpredictable and anything can happen.
If the Giants suddenly show up, then you're not only out your original $100, bu another $2300 (or whatever amount) as well.

I think your have to ride it out.
Yes the the hedge could work out accordingly but I believe it's too risky.

The only other thing I would consider is Willie's advice on a possible halftime wager, or in-game action which may provide opportunities. ..

Unreal.

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

In case anyone wants to ever do something like this themselves here is how the sheet is set up.

Here is how I configured the Solver. You might have to add it in (Excel Options --> Go --> Solver Add-In --> Install, it then shows up to the right of the Data tab)

CowboyT · Oct 26, 2013

You just have to set an equation for all the scenarios. ...

X = hedge on philly (assuming -245 at 5d now)
y = hedge on buffalo (+425)

4700 - x - y = giants and saints win
-100 + (1/2.45)x - y = Philly wins, saints win
-100 - x + 4.25y = giants win, buffalo wins
-100 + (1/2.45)x + 4.25y = Philly wins, buffalo wins

i could solve for break-even, but you probably wouldn't like the results. Let me know though.

CowboyT · Oct 26, 2013

Oh Harry just did...nevermind...

HarryCaray · Oct 26, 2013

CowboyT said:
Oh Harry just did...nevermind...

Yeah Excel solver one of the handier tools I've ever learned in this type of situation. Super easy too. :toast:

Need the smartest minds on this one.... parlay hedge question

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