Service Plays Tuesday 10/29/13

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Today's NBA Picks

Chicago at Miami

The Heat begin defense of their title Tuesday against a Chicago team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus Southeast Division opponents. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

Defending NBA champs a bad bet in season openers

The Miami Heat bucked a long-running ATS trend last season, defeating the Boston Celtics 120-107 as 6.5-point home favorites on the opening night of the NBA schedule.

Before that victory, defending NBA champions were 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS in their first game of the season off a title run over the last 10 years. That win over Boston also snapped a six-game ATS skid for reigning NBA champs in their first game of the schedule.

Miami is back in that position again, taking on the Chicago Bulls as a 5-point home favorite to kick off the 2013-14 season Tuesday night.

Before the Heat won their opener last October, the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers (twice), Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, and the 2011-12 Miami squad fell short of the spread in their season debuts.

Going back another 10 seasons, between 1992 and 2001, defending NBA champions flexed their muscles in the season opener, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. However, the Bulls (5), Houston Rockets (2) and Lakers (2) accounted for nine of those titles.

Oddsmakers have set the Heat as +240 favorites to win their third straight NBA title this season. Tuesday’s total is set at 187.5 points.

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

Let’s for a second forget about what went on with the Dallas Cowboys in Detroit this past Sunday. Let’s erase the crushing last-second loss to the Lions and Dez Bryant’s poisonous tantrums on the sideline that nearly had Jason Witten – the NFL’s Man of the Year – ready to rip the Cowboys’ diva WR a new one. All that wiped clean, Dallas finds itself in a huge lookahead spot facing the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.

The Cowboys have a big-time litmus tests on the road against New Orleans on Sunday Night Football in Week 10, a real chance to see where the team stacks up amongst the NFC contenders. With that prime time trip to the Big Easy hanging over its head, Dallas could find itself in trouble as a home favorite versus the Vikes. Now, pile all that other stuff mentioned above back on the ‘Boys. Yikes.

Letdown spot

One of the biggest upsets in Week 9 of the college football schedule went pretty much unnoticed Friday night. The C-USA was shaken as the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders shocked the Marshall Thundering Herd, 51-49 on a last-second TD catch from Tavarres Jefferson, winning outright as 10-point home underdogs.

The Blue Raiders snapped a three-game losing skid and now head to UAB to take on the 2-5 Blazers as 4.5-point road chalk Saturday. Middle Tennessee is 1-3 SU and ATS away from Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium this year and faces a UAB squad playing at home for just the second time in five games. The Blazers can put up points, averaging 29.3 on the season, and won’t roll over for a MTU program still glowing from its Week 8 win.

Schedule spot

Being the defending NBA champs is tough work. Not only are expectations high – on the court and at the sportsbook – but you have a big target on your back to open the year. The Miami Heat run a tough opening stretch of schedule to kick off the 2013-14 campaign, starting with a home date versus Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls Tuesday.

Defending NBA title winners have struggled to cover in their opening games over the past 11 seasons – 4-7 ATS – and following Tuesday's debut, Miami hits the bricks for road games in Philadelphia and Brooklyn before coming back to South Beach to host Washington Sunday. The Heat will have played four games in six days with travel in between, a tough task for any team to start the season.

NFL opening line report: Books limp into Week 9
By JASON LOGAN

Sportsbooks in Nevada limp into Week 9 of the NFL schedule after taking a beating from the betting public this Sunday.

NFL Week 8 favorites are 8-4 ATS, heading into the Monday nighter, serving books their worst week of the 2013 football season, according to media sources in Las Vegas. On top of that, the Over hit in eight of those 12 games, another popular parlay pick of the public.

“The public is 7-1 and going for the throat (Monday) with residual parlays overflowing to Seattle,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook, told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas ***************.

That rough weekend may or may not prompt sportsbooks to inflate the spreads for Week 9’s action. Favorites are 63-53-3 (54.31%) on the year, with home chalk boasting a profitable 42-31-3 record (57.53%) heading into Monday.

“I preach it every week, ‘Jack up those favorites’,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “I tell them every week, stick a number out there and if you start taking money on it, move it. Get to that number where you’re getting money on the underdog.”

“The thing is, a lot of places are too worried about getting middled. That rarely happens,” Korner says. “They’re afraid to put the favorites too high. They’re afraid of money on the underdog. I say get as much money on the underdog as you can before the weekend.”

Korner is pointing at next Monday’s game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, which his oddsmakers sent out with Green Bay as an 11-point favorite.

Korner believes the injury to Chicago QB Jay Cutler will push this line higher and says books only have to look to this Monday’s game between Seattle and St. Louis as an example. That spread has climbed as high as Rams +14 with QB Sam Bradford out for the season.

“It’s basically a good team versus a bad team,” Korner says of the Green Bay-Chicago matchup. “On Monday, books should jack up the favorite and the total. Be higher than the guy next to you.”

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (Pick, 51)

Robert Griffin III is the big “What if?” in this matchup. The Redskins QB left Sunday’s game against Denver with a knee injury in the fourth quarter but told the media his knee was fine and that the team held him out as a precaution.

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers brought spreads from Washington -2 to a pick’em to the table, settling on Redskins -2 with the expectation that RG3 would be in action versus San Diego.

“They’re playing much better and should be the favorite if he’s in,” Korner says of Griffin and the Redskins. “San Diego is a good team and we do respect them, but San Diego is in double trouble being in the AFC West, with Denver and Kansas City heading to the playoffs and everyone else - besides division leaders - fighting for one spot.”

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+1, 45)

The Texans and Colts both come off a bye week, heading into this Sunday Night Football matchup. Korner says some of his oddsmakers had Houston as a favorite, however, they sent out Colts -1.

“I had to fight for this one,” he says. “I didn’t yield to the other guys.”

Korner is interested to see how Houston’s QB situation impacts the line. Matt Schaub is questionable to return from a leg injury in Week 9, leaving third-stringer Case Keenum as the starter. Keenum was impressive in his first NFL start versus Kansas City in Week 7, passing for 271 yards a score in a close loss to the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.

“He looked good and confident,” Korner says of Keenum. “As bad as Schaub was playing, there’s not much of a drop off here. Now, perception wise there is. We did this (spread) with Keenum playing. We’ll see if the line moves if Schaub comes back.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 44)

A few years ago, this matchup would be a possible AFC Championship preview. But, with the Steelers stumbling and Tom Brady and the Patriots looking less like contenders every week, this AFC showdown has lost its luster.

Korner sent out this game at New England -7.5 but had some of his oddsmakers bring a spread as high as Patriots -9 to the table. Most books opened with the spread at a touchdown.

“This is now just an average game,” says Korner. “And where New England is playing better, it warrants more than a touchdown. It’s a boring game really. New England is the better team and I think (the spread) goes a little higher.”

Tom Donaghy NBA?

ANDRE GOMES
NBA Opening Night
NBA - 501 Orlando Magic @ 502 Indiana Pacers We will have a lot of games this season with double digits lines, but a top team like Indiana won't
be just a -11.5 points favorite many times against a lowly team like Orlando. I have no doubt that
the Pacers will be once again a top team this season. I watched some of their preseason games
and their defense will be once again a top 3 unit, while they are more inconsistent on offense but
with Luis Scola and C.J. Watson coming off the bench, Indiana will also be a better offensive team
than they were last season, especially considering how much Roy Hibbert struggled on offense
during the first half of the past season.
Matchup wise, Orlando couldn't have a worse matchup than Indiana on their season debut. The
Magic will have a lot of problems on offense not only due to lack of talent, but also because their
best player Nikola Vucevic will face the best defensive frontcourt in the league. This is why
Vucevic could only have the following numbers against Indiana last season:
@ IND 3/19: 31min, 4-12 FG 9pts and 11reb
vs IND 03/08: 34min, 6-11 FG 12pts and 6 reb
vs IND 01/16: 35min, 7-13 FG 16 pts and 15 reb


I know we can't take the preseason very seriously, but Orlando committed 20.6 turnovers per
game in those games and they will now face the best defensive team in the league. So, I don't
expect things to work well for the Magic at all. On the other side, Indiana will have a clear mismatch at the PF position that they will explore without much problems. Orlando has both Glen
Davis and Tobias Harris out for this game, so Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson will be the two
available players that can play at the PF position. So, these two players will have to defend David
West and then Luis Scola, good luck with that!
Indiana showed in the preseason that they are already focused and that they are ready to play
faster and more aggressive in order to force turnovers to their opponents. On their last three
preseason games, they forced, 22, 20 and 25 turnovers that led to almost 20 fast break points
per game in those games. This is something that should also happen in here, as Orlando doesn't
have good ball handlers, something that makes them turnover prone. I have Indiana winning this
game by at least 15 points and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-11.5) @ -110

NBA betting: Opening Night cheat sheet

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-4.5, 188.5)

Derrick Rose sat on the bench and watched the Chicago Bulls fall to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals last spring while recovering from knee surgery that kept him out the entire 2012-13 campaign. The Heat, who went on to win their second straight NBA Championship, will begin their title defense against a healthy Rose when they host the Bulls on Tuesday. Rose and Heat superstar LeBron James mark one of several intriguing matchups.

James and Rose combined to win the last five NBA MVP awards, with Rose stealing the crown from James in his last fully healthy season, 2010-11. The dynamic point guard could spend some time going up directly against James, who proved during the playoffs last season that he could guard all five positions on the court with little trouble.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE: The Heat opened s 5.5-point faves and are now -5. The total opened 187.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-13.3) - Miami (-15.0) + home court (-3.0) = Heat -4.7
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (-12, 187.5)

The Indiana Pacers nearly ousted the Miami Heat in a stellar seven-game Eastern Conference finals last season and the goal is to dethrone the two-time NBA champions this time around. The task begins Tuesday when the Pacers open against the visiting Orlando Magic, a squad that struggled to a league-worst 20-62 record last season after dealing Dwight Howard. The Pacers open the campaign a man down after it was revealed Monday that swingman Danny Granger (calf) will miss at least three weeks.

Orlando is hoping to display improvement and is counting on rookie guard Victor Oladipo – the second pick of the 2013 draft – to excel immediately. The Pacers are on the other side of the equation with their fan base expecting a deep run that includes reaching the NBA Finals.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, FSN Florida (Orlando), FSN Indiana
LINE: The Pacers opened -11 and are now -12. The total opened 187 and is up to 187.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Orlando (-1.0) - Indiana (-13.1) + home court (-3.0) = Pacers -15.1
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Indiana.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers (+8.5, 198.5)

The Los Angeles Lakers officially ruled Kobe Bryant out for Tuesday’s season opener, leaving the stage set for Doc Rivers and the rival Los Angeles Clippers. Rivers will spend his first game on the sidelines with his new team when the Clippers serve as visitors Tuesday in the arena they share with the Lakers. Bryant, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon toward the end of last season, is practicing with the team in a limited capacity.

Rivers made headlines over the summer when he jumped from the Boston Celtics to the Clippers, drawing criticism from Celtics fans while giving Clippers fans hope that the team can build on last season’s progress. The Clippers quickly re-signed Chris Paul and brought in J.J. Redick to help spread the floor for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan inside.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE: The Clippers opened -8 and are now -8.5. The total opened 197 and is up to 198.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Clippers (-13.5) - Lakers (-4.6) + home court (-3.0) = Lakers +5.9
TRENDS:

* Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

NBA Top 6: Easiest and hardest early schedules

The NBA season kicks off Tuesday, and some teams will have an easier time of it than others in the early going.

Here are three teams with easy schedules over the first five games, along with three teams that have a tough opening sked:

Easy Schedules

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers represent one of the few teams in the Eastern Conference capable of knocking off the Miami Heat - and they've been handed a gift opening schedule. They'll kick off the season with games against non-contenders Orlando, New Orleans and Cleveland. A visit to Detroit is followed by Indiana's only tough game of the stretch, a home date with Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are expected to challenge for one of the final East playoff berths, and can bolster their chances - albeit infinitesimally - with a friendly opening stretch. Milwaukee opens on the road against the turmoil-riddled New York Knicks and putrid Boston Celtics, then return home to face Toronto, Cleveland and Dallas. A winning record over this span should be close to a given.

New York Knicks

Despite facing plenty of question marks about their roster, the Knicks have a favorable opening to the season. Consecutive games against Milwaukee and Chicago should provide a stiff test, but with just three games over the next nine days - one against Minnesota and two against woeful Charlotte - New York should be fresh and competitive in the second half of that stretch.

Hard Schedules

Houston Rockets

No team has a busier early stretch than the Rockets, who play their first five games in a seven-day span. The only easy one in that stretch is the home opener at Charlotte, but Houston will entertain the Dallas Mavericks two nights later before hitting the road for a three-game trek. Facing games against the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers in a four-game stretch will test Houston's early-season fitness level.

Atlanta Hawks

It's unclear who the Hawks ticked off at the league office, but something must have happened for Atlanta to end up with such a bizarre - and demanding - season-opening docket. Atlanta visits Dallas in its opener before traveling back to Georgia for a one-game homestand against Toronto. That's followed by road games against the L.A. Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Denver Nuggets.

Philadelphia 76ers

The good news for Philadelphia - and there isn't that much this season - is that they'll play five of their first six games at home. The bad news: three of those games come against legitimate conference contenders - Miami, Chicago and Golden State. Add in a pair of games against the improving Washington Wizards, and the 76ers may find themselves 0-5 to open the campaign.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Anaheim won eight of its last ten games. Flyers are 3-7 but won their last two games, giving up total of three goals.
-- Lightning won five of their last six games.
-- Chicago won six of its last nine games.
-- Los Angeles won seven of its last nine games. Coyotes won three of last four.


Cold teams
-- Rangers/Islanders both lost six of their last eight games.
-- Dallas Stars lost four of last five road games. Montreal lost three of last four home games.
-- Devils lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Senators lost three of their last four games.
-- Winnipeg lost four of its last five games. Blues lost three of last five games.
-- Edmonton lost three in row, 10 of first 13 games. Maple Leafs lost three of their last five games.

Series records
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games with the Islanders.
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games with Anaheim.
-- Canadiens lost their last two games with Dallas, 5-2/3-0.
-- Devils are 20-6 in last 26 games vs Tampa Bay, but lost last two.
-- Senators lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Blues won three of their last four games with Winnipeg.
-- Oilers lost their last four games with Toronto, the last two in OT.
-- Kings won eight of last eleven games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Rangers' last five games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Philadelphia games.
-- Five of last six Dallas games went over the total; eight of last ten Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Devil-Lightning games went over the total.
-- Last three Chicago games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Winnipeg-St Louis games.
-- Last three Toronto-Edmonton games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.

Today's NHL Picks

Toronto at Edmonton

The Maple Leafs look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 2-9 in its last 11 home games. Toronto is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

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Rose leads Bulls into Miami on Tuesday night
by Zach Cohen

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -5, Total: 187.5

The NBA season tips off with three games on Tuesday night, but none will draw the amount of attention or excitement of the matchup between the Bulls and Heat.

Miami's quest for a three-peat and Derrick Rose’s return from a torn ACL are just two of the stories that will begin when Chicago heads to South Beach for the first game of the 2013-2014 regular season. This matchup is between two teams that could very well be playing in the Eastern Conference Finals when all is said and done. These teams met in the playoffs last season, where Chicago stole Game 1 as a heavy underdog, but did not get another win the rest of the series. Miami won four straight games SU and covered in three of those four games. Last season, the Heat were 82-23 SU and 58-47 ATS (55%) including playoffs. The Bulls, on the other hand, went 50-44 SU and just 41-52-1 ATS (44%). Miami is 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in the past 10 games against Chicago, but is a dominant 12-3 SU (9-6 ATS) the past 15 times it has faced the Bulls at home. Last year during the regular season, the Heat were 28-26 ATS when playing at home and the Bulls were 27-20-1 ATS when playing on the road.

The Bulls played the entire 2012-2013 season without their superstar PG Derrick Rose, and still made the playoffs and won their first round series. This season, Rose returns and if his preseason is any indication of how he’ll play starting Tuesday, the Bulls are looking at a special season. One of the highlights of Rose’s preseason was a 32-point, 9-assist performance against the Pacers in just 31 minutes of play. Chicago didn’t change its roster too much in the offseason, but did bring in Mike Dunleavy (10.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 43% 3-pt FG last season with Bucks) in free agency. He provides a nice offensive player off the bench for a team that sometimes struggles to score. The Bulls may be without C Joakim Noah (groin) and PG Kirk Hinrich (concussion) when they take on the Heat, as the two have been out of the past few preseason games and have not been full participants in practice.

The Heat have now won the last two NBA championships and have their eyes set on a third. SF LeBron James and SG Dwyane Wade are more familiar with each other than ever and PF Chris Bosh is excellent in a pick-and-pop situation. The Heat lost sharp-shooter Mike Miller to the Grizzlies in free agency, but did make a few low-risk, high-reward moves. They signed PF Michael Beasley and C Greg Oden, moves that if they pan out could help the Heat run away with another title. Beasley, a talented scorer, fell out of favor in Phoenix after averaging 10.1 PPG on a miserable 40.5% FG. He is, however, only 24, and just two seasons removed from averaging 19.2 PPG on 45.0% FG with the Timberwolves. Oden is a whole other story. After being selected No. 1 in the 2007 NBA Draft over Kevin Durant, Oden has been plagued by injuries throughout his entire career. When he stepped on the court versus the Pelicans in the preseason on Oct. 23, it was the first time Oden played a minute of a game since 2009. When healthy, the big man is one of the better defensive stoppers in the game, but he still not 100 percent and may never be again. He is a reclamation project and the Heat are hoping to get just 10-to-15 minutes out of him a night to spell Bosh.