[h=1]Best 2013-14 NBA title value bets[/h][h=3]Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers among the top NBA title bets[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA season tips off Tuesday night, and the news regarding the odds to win the title is that there isn't much news (especially among the top contenders).When the Miami Heat wrapped up their second straight title on June 20, they were made the 7-4 favorite (expressed plus-175 as a money line) at the LVH SuperBook. As you can see by the chart below, by the time the schedule was released Aug. 6, they had been bumped up a notch to 2-1, not as much because their chances of a three-peat had lessened but to entice bettors to tie up their money for the better part of 10 months.
On the eve of the season, the Heat are still right there as the 2-1 favorite, with the Oklahoma City Thunder at 9-2, the Chicago Bulls at 6-1 and the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers both at 8-1, all exactly as they were on Aug. 6.
The only adjustments in the next tier of title hopefuls have been the Houston Rockets, lowered from 12-1 to 10-1 and the Brooklyn Nets lowered from 15-1 to 12-1. Both teams added high-profile players during the offseason -- the Rockets signed free-agent center Dwight Howard from the Lakers while the Nets traded for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry -- and with those players seeming to jell with their new clubs, it's not surprising that they're getting some support. The only other team to have its future-book odds lowered at the LVH in the past two months is the Golden State Warriors, from 30-1 to 25-1.
Typically, the NBA has far fewer long shots winning titles compared to other pro sports, so most people don't even look that far down the list except to satisfy their curiosity. It's not surprising then that the biggest changes in the futures are cases where the LVH trying to attract any sort of action on the also-rans. The Atlanta Hawks, Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors were all raised from 100-1 to 200-1, while the Boston Celtics ballooned from 100-1 to 300-1.
It seems unlikely that anyone will be tempted to take a flier on the Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic or Charlotte Bobcats, all raised from 500-1 to 1,000-1; the Phoenix Suns, raised from 300-1 to 2,000-1; or the Philadelphia 76ers, raised from 500-1 to 5,000-1.
But there are still some good value bets out there. Here are the best NBA title value bets, along with some updated odds on the best over/under bets.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]ODDS TO WIN 2013-14 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP (Courtesy LVH SuperBook)[/h]
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[h=3]Best title bets[/h]
Indiana Pacers (15-1)
The Pacers are right where they were when I recommended them as my best future-book bet right after the NBA Finals had ended and this still looks like a fair price. This mostly is the same team that took the Heat to Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals, with Danny Granger hopefully returning to form and the additions of C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland and Luis Scola. Home-court advantage throughout the playoffs is probably too much, but they should be set for a deep postseason run again, with a shot at a decent price.
Chicago Bulls (6-1)
I left this team off my midsummer lists because of the uncertainty of Derrick Rose, but after seeing him dominate in just a few preseason games, if you think he can stay healthy, this looks like a good bet, especially since we haven't seen a drop in odds yet.
Golden State Warriors (25-1)
Trying to find a value play in the Western Conference is tougher, but I like the Warriors. They've been bet down from 30-1 to 25-1, so they have some other believers, and I think maybe the better bet could be their 13-1 odds to win the West (so you don't have to worry about potentially hedging in the Finals against the Heat). They took the Spurs to six games in the conference semis with a hobbled Stephen Curry, and adding Andre Iguodala helps them close the talent gap.
Miami Heat (2-1)
I rarely make a case for a favorite, but it's clear they're the class of the league right now. If they don't have major injuries or collectively forget how to play the game, King James & Co. will be hard to dethrone. The issue -- as with any future bet -- is whether the bet is worth tying up your money for so long. If you thought last season that it was a foregone conclusion the Heat would win the title but still waited for the playoffs to start before betting, you would have had to lay minus-175 (odds of 4-7) at the LVH. Even if you decided to bet the series price and roll over your winnings each time, you would have only brought a payoff of minus-200, as they were prohibitive favorites in all their series (1-100 and higher) until being minus-220 against the Spurs in the Finals.
[h=3]Playable over/under win totals[/h]
Below are my suggestions from my column of Oct. 7 after the LVH released its over/under win totals for every team. I've listed the team and the price at the time, then updated it with the current number and whether I think it's still worth a bet. The great thing about over/under win totals is you can bet on a team to overachieve without needing it to win the title like a traditional future-book bet, or you can bet against a team that you think will fall short of expectations.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'over' bets[/h]
Minnesota Timberwolves (over 41 wins; now 40.5): I like this one a lot, with the big three of Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic. A lot of people are predicting the Timberwolves won't make the playoffs, so this number has dipped by a half-game, but the over still looks good to me.
Oklahoma City Thunder (over 50.5; now 53.5): This is another one that has risen like crazy, with people speculating that Russell Westbrook will return early enough (not that the Thunder will have a losing record without him) and lead them to one of the top seeds in the West or maybe even the No. 1 seed.
Golden State Warriors (over 49.5; now 52): I listed them above as my top long-shot title contender, so you know I like them. However, I would say the value is gone from this wager with it rising a full two and a half games (maybe some readers grabbed it earlier this month?).
Chicago Bulls (over 56.5; now 56): As stated above, with D-Rose back this looks solid and we get the added benefit of a push on 56 wins.
Los Angeles Lakers (over 33.5; now 35): Yes, they lost Howard and are without Kobe Bryant, but I think this number was adjusted down too far. The market has agreed, as it's been bet up a game and a half, so I'd pass now.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'under' bets[/h]
Houston Rockets (under 54.5 wins; now 55): They have the talent and their number has been bet up slightly, but I'm not convinced. Sure, Howard is doing and saying all the right things now, but what will happen when their first crisis comes along? Maybe he's pulled late in games so the other teams can't Hack-a-Howard? They'll approach the number, but I still say under is the play here.
Denver Nuggets (under 47; now 46): This has been bet down the past few weeks and I'd probably pass now because they'll still be a decent team and every game counts in these wagers.
Brooklyn Nets (under 52.5; still 52.5): A lot of people are high on the Nets, and for good reason. But I still like the under; they do have some stiff competition in the East. Plus, as I said in my previous article, there is a decent chance they'll give some of their stars some nights off (or limit their minutes at times) to help them stay fresh for the playoffs. That could sacrifice some regular-season wins.
Washington Wizards (under 42; now 39): They were under .500 even in games that John Wall played in last year, and I really liked the under 42 a few weeks back, but at 39 now, it's a pass.
New Orleans Pelicans (under 40; still 40): I originally took the under, and the line hasn't moved, but I'm not as confident in it. I have been impressed with Anthony Davis' development, and they should be right around this number with a shot at the playoffs, so I'll drop it from consideration.
[h=3]Tuley's Take[/h]
I would recommend the Pacers at 15-1 and the Warriors at 25-1 as my top future-book bets. As for the Bulls, while 6-1 seems like a fair price, I would feel more comfortable waiting to make sure Rose makes it through the season.
My suggested over/under plays as the season begins would be Timberwolves over 40.5, Bulls over 56, Rockets under 55 and Nets under 52.5.
Good luck and enjoy the season!
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA season tips off Tuesday night, and the news regarding the odds to win the title is that there isn't much news (especially among the top contenders).When the Miami Heat wrapped up their second straight title on June 20, they were made the 7-4 favorite (expressed plus-175 as a money line) at the LVH SuperBook. As you can see by the chart below, by the time the schedule was released Aug. 6, they had been bumped up a notch to 2-1, not as much because their chances of a three-peat had lessened but to entice bettors to tie up their money for the better part of 10 months.
On the eve of the season, the Heat are still right there as the 2-1 favorite, with the Oklahoma City Thunder at 9-2, the Chicago Bulls at 6-1 and the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers both at 8-1, all exactly as they were on Aug. 6.
The only adjustments in the next tier of title hopefuls have been the Houston Rockets, lowered from 12-1 to 10-1 and the Brooklyn Nets lowered from 15-1 to 12-1. Both teams added high-profile players during the offseason -- the Rockets signed free-agent center Dwight Howard from the Lakers while the Nets traded for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry -- and with those players seeming to jell with their new clubs, it's not surprising that they're getting some support. The only other team to have its future-book odds lowered at the LVH in the past two months is the Golden State Warriors, from 30-1 to 25-1.
Typically, the NBA has far fewer long shots winning titles compared to other pro sports, so most people don't even look that far down the list except to satisfy their curiosity. It's not surprising then that the biggest changes in the futures are cases where the LVH trying to attract any sort of action on the also-rans. The Atlanta Hawks, Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors were all raised from 100-1 to 200-1, while the Boston Celtics ballooned from 100-1 to 300-1.
It seems unlikely that anyone will be tempted to take a flier on the Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic or Charlotte Bobcats, all raised from 500-1 to 1,000-1; the Phoenix Suns, raised from 300-1 to 2,000-1; or the Philadelphia 76ers, raised from 500-1 to 5,000-1.
But there are still some good value bets out there. Here are the best NBA title value bets, along with some updated odds on the best over/under bets.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]ODDS TO WIN 2013-14 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP (Courtesy LVH SuperBook)[/h]
| Team | June 20 (open) | Aug. 6 | Oct. 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 7-4 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 9-2 | 9-2 | 9-2 |
| Chicago Bulls | 7-1 | 6-1 | 6-1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 7-1 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 20-1 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| Houston Rockets | 25-1 | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 40-1 | 15-1 | 12-1 |
| Indiana Pacers | 15-1 | 15-1 | 15-1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 20-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| New York Knicks | 20-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Golden State Warriors | 25-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 |
| Denver Nuggets | 25-1 | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 40-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 25-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Washington Wizards | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Detroit Pistons | 300-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 50-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Utah Jazz | 100-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Sacramento Kings | 100-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 100-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Boston Celtics | 40-1 | 100-1 | 300-1 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 100-1 | 500-1 | 1000-1 |
| Orlando Magic | 500-1 | 500-1 | 1000-1 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 500-1 | 500-1 | 1000-1 |
| Phoenix Suns | 300-1 | 300-1 | 2000-1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 100-1 | 500-1 | 5000-1 |
| ***List is re-ordered based on current title odds as Friday, Oct. 25 |
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[h=3]Best title bets[/h]
Indiana Pacers (15-1)
The Pacers are right where they were when I recommended them as my best future-book bet right after the NBA Finals had ended and this still looks like a fair price. This mostly is the same team that took the Heat to Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals, with Danny Granger hopefully returning to form and the additions of C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland and Luis Scola. Home-court advantage throughout the playoffs is probably too much, but they should be set for a deep postseason run again, with a shot at a decent price.
Chicago Bulls (6-1)
I left this team off my midsummer lists because of the uncertainty of Derrick Rose, but after seeing him dominate in just a few preseason games, if you think he can stay healthy, this looks like a good bet, especially since we haven't seen a drop in odds yet.
Golden State Warriors (25-1)
Trying to find a value play in the Western Conference is tougher, but I like the Warriors. They've been bet down from 30-1 to 25-1, so they have some other believers, and I think maybe the better bet could be their 13-1 odds to win the West (so you don't have to worry about potentially hedging in the Finals against the Heat). They took the Spurs to six games in the conference semis with a hobbled Stephen Curry, and adding Andre Iguodala helps them close the talent gap.
Miami Heat (2-1)
I rarely make a case for a favorite, but it's clear they're the class of the league right now. If they don't have major injuries or collectively forget how to play the game, King James & Co. will be hard to dethrone. The issue -- as with any future bet -- is whether the bet is worth tying up your money for so long. If you thought last season that it was a foregone conclusion the Heat would win the title but still waited for the playoffs to start before betting, you would have had to lay minus-175 (odds of 4-7) at the LVH. Even if you decided to bet the series price and roll over your winnings each time, you would have only brought a payoff of minus-200, as they were prohibitive favorites in all their series (1-100 and higher) until being minus-220 against the Spurs in the Finals.
[h=3]Playable over/under win totals[/h]
Below are my suggestions from my column of Oct. 7 after the LVH released its over/under win totals for every team. I've listed the team and the price at the time, then updated it with the current number and whether I think it's still worth a bet. The great thing about over/under win totals is you can bet on a team to overachieve without needing it to win the title like a traditional future-book bet, or you can bet against a team that you think will fall short of expectations.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'over' bets[/h]
Minnesota Timberwolves (over 41 wins; now 40.5): I like this one a lot, with the big three of Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic. A lot of people are predicting the Timberwolves won't make the playoffs, so this number has dipped by a half-game, but the over still looks good to me.
Oklahoma City Thunder (over 50.5; now 53.5): This is another one that has risen like crazy, with people speculating that Russell Westbrook will return early enough (not that the Thunder will have a losing record without him) and lead them to one of the top seeds in the West or maybe even the No. 1 seed.
Golden State Warriors (over 49.5; now 52): I listed them above as my top long-shot title contender, so you know I like them. However, I would say the value is gone from this wager with it rising a full two and a half games (maybe some readers grabbed it earlier this month?).
Chicago Bulls (over 56.5; now 56): As stated above, with D-Rose back this looks solid and we get the added benefit of a push on 56 wins.
Los Angeles Lakers (over 33.5; now 35): Yes, they lost Howard and are without Kobe Bryant, but I think this number was adjusted down too far. The market has agreed, as it's been bet up a game and a half, so I'd pass now.
[h=3]Tuley's recommended 'under' bets[/h]
Houston Rockets (under 54.5 wins; now 55): They have the talent and their number has been bet up slightly, but I'm not convinced. Sure, Howard is doing and saying all the right things now, but what will happen when their first crisis comes along? Maybe he's pulled late in games so the other teams can't Hack-a-Howard? They'll approach the number, but I still say under is the play here.
Denver Nuggets (under 47; now 46): This has been bet down the past few weeks and I'd probably pass now because they'll still be a decent team and every game counts in these wagers.
Brooklyn Nets (under 52.5; still 52.5): A lot of people are high on the Nets, and for good reason. But I still like the under; they do have some stiff competition in the East. Plus, as I said in my previous article, there is a decent chance they'll give some of their stars some nights off (or limit their minutes at times) to help them stay fresh for the playoffs. That could sacrifice some regular-season wins.
Washington Wizards (under 42; now 39): They were under .500 even in games that John Wall played in last year, and I really liked the under 42 a few weeks back, but at 39 now, it's a pass.
New Orleans Pelicans (under 40; still 40): I originally took the under, and the line hasn't moved, but I'm not as confident in it. I have been impressed with Anthony Davis' development, and they should be right around this number with a shot at the playoffs, so I'll drop it from consideration.
[h=3]Tuley's Take[/h]
I would recommend the Pacers at 15-1 and the Warriors at 25-1 as my top future-book bets. As for the Bulls, while 6-1 seems like a fair price, I would feel more comfortable waiting to make sure Rose makes it through the season.
My suggested over/under plays as the season begins would be Timberwolves over 40.5, Bulls over 56, Rockets under 55 and Nets under 52.5.
Good luck and enjoy the season!
