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Thread: Newsletters

  1. #8626  
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    Newsletter Tracking (through 9/12/2021) from Mendoza Line

    I'll update the list if we see newsletters altering their rating systems or changing the titles of their play categories, which sometimes happens at the beginning of a new season.

    Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

    Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

    CKO (not posted yet this season)
    11* (0-0-0)
    10* (0-0-0)
    o/u (0-0-0)

    Gridiron Gold Sheet (not posted yet this season)
    NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0)
    NFL Best Bets (0-0-0)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
    5* (1-0-1)
    4* (1-1-0)
    3* (2-0-0)
    Upset pick (1-1-0)
    Betcha Didn't Know (1-0-0) (Raiders +4 pending for Monday)
    Awesome Angle (0-1-1)
    Incredible Stat (1-1-0)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
    5* (1-0-0)
    4* (0-0-0) (Raiders +4 pending for Monday)
    3* (1-0-0)

    Pointwise NCAA
    1* (3-1-0)
    2* (0-2-0)
    3* (0-2-0)
    4* (4-0-0)
    5* (2-2-0)

    Pointwise NFL
    3* (0-0-0) (Ravens -4.5 pending for Monday)
    4* (1-1-0)
    5* (1-1-0)

    PowerSweep NCAA
    4* (0-2-0)
    3* (2-2-0)
    2* (3-1-0)
    Underdog Play of the Week (1-1-0)
    Tech Play of the Week (0-2-0)
    Revenge Play of the Week (1-1-0)
    Situational Play of the Week (1-1-0)
    Series Play of the Week (0-0-0)

    PowerSweep NFL (0-5-0 overall this week)
    4* (0-1-0)
    3* (0-1-0)
    2* (0-1-0)
    NFL System play (0-1-0)
    4* Pro Angle (0-0-0)
    3* o/u play (0-1-0)

    Powers Picks NCAA (4-0-0 overall this week)
    3* (2-1-0)
    2* (5-2-0)
    1* (0-0-0)

    Powers Picks NFL
    4* (0-0-0)
    3* (0-0-1)
    2* (1-2-0)
    1* (0-0-0)

    Sports Reporter
    NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
    NCAA Best Bets (2-4-0)
    NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
    NFL Best Bets (0-2-0)

    Red Sheet
    90* (0-0-0)
    89* (4-0-0)
    88* (3-4-0) (Ravens -4.5 pending for Monday)

    Winning Points
    NCAA 4* (1-0-0)
    NCAA 3* (1-0-0)
    NFL 4* (0-1-0)
    NFL 3* (1-0-0)

    Killer Sports, not including teasers (not posted yet this season)
    SBB 4.5* (0-0-0)
    SBB 4* (0-0-0)
    Cajun NCAA (0-0-0)
    Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0-0)

    Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
    3* (0-2-0)
    2* (1-0-0)
    Team Total of the Week (1-0-0)

    PowerPlays
    NCAA 4.5* (2-1-0)
    NCAA 4* (3-4-0)
    NFL 4* (1-0-0)

    Gold Sheet
    NCAA Key Releases (2-6-0)
    NFL Key Releases (2-0-0)

    ITPB
    NCAA (2-7-0)
    NFL (0-0-0) (we didn't see the NFL part of ITPB)

    Kenny White
    NCAA (3-2-0)
    NFL (0-2-0)
    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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  2. #8627  
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    Newsletter Tracking (through 9/13/2021) from Mendoza Line

    **Updated to include Monday Night Football**

    I'll update the list if we see newsletters altering their rating systems or changing the titles of their play categories, which sometimes happens at the beginning of a new season.

    Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

    Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

    CKO (not posted yet this season)
    11* (0-0-0)
    10* (0-0-0)
    o/u (0-0-0)

    Gridiron Gold Sheet (not posted yet this season)
    NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0)
    NFL Best Bets (0-0-0)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
    5* (1-0-1)
    4* (1-1-0)
    3* (2-0-0)
    Upset pick (1-1-0)
    Betcha Didn't Know (2-0-0)
    Awesome Angle (0-1-1)
    Incredible Stat (1-1-0)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
    5* (1-0-0)
    4* (1-0-0)
    3* (1-0-0)

    Pointwise NCAA
    1* (3-1-0)
    2* (0-2-0)
    3* (0-2-0)
    4* (4-0-0)
    5* (2-2-0)

    Pointwise NFL
    3* (0-1-0)
    4* (1-1-0)
    5* (1-1-0)

    PowerSweep NCAA
    4* (0-2-0)
    3* (2-2-0)
    2* (3-1-0)
    Underdog Play of the Week (1-1-0)
    Tech Play of the Week (0-2-0)
    Revenge Play of the Week (1-1-0)
    Situational Play of the Week (1-1-0)
    Series Play of the Week (0-0-0)

    PowerSweep NFL (0-5-0 overall this week)
    4* (0-1-0)
    3* (0-1-0)
    2* (0-1-0)
    NFL System play (0-1-0)
    4* Pro Angle (0-0-0)
    3* o/u play (0-1-0)

    Powers Picks NCAA (4-0-0 overall this week)
    3* (2-1-0)
    2* (5-2-0)
    1* (0-0-0)

    Powers Picks NFL
    4* (0-0-0)
    3* (0-0-1)
    2* (1-2-0)
    1* (0-0-0)

    Sports Reporter
    NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
    NCAA Best Bets (2-4-0)
    NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
    NFL Best Bets (0-2-0)

    Red Sheet
    90* (0-0-0)
    89* (4-0-0)
    88* (3-5-0)

    Winning Points
    NCAA 4* (1-0-0)
    NCAA 3* (1-0-0)
    NFL 4* (0-1-0)
    NFL 3* (1-0-0)

    Killer Sports, not including teasers (not posted yet this season)
    SBB 4.5* (0-0-0)
    SBB 4* (0-0-0)
    Cajun NCAA (0-0-0)
    Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0-0)

    Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
    3* (0-2-0)
    2* (1-0-0)
    Team Total of the Week (1-0-0)

    PowerPlays
    NCAA 4.5* (2-1-0)
    NCAA 4* (3-4-0)
    NFL 4* (1-0-0)

    Gold Sheet
    NCAA Key Releases (2-6-0)
    NFL Key Releases (2-0-0)

    ITPB
    NCAA (2-7-0)
    NFL (0-0-0) (we didn't see the NFL part of ITPB)

    Kenny White
    NCAA (3-2-0)
    NFL (0-2-0)
    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Anyone have the Brad Powers newsletter yet?
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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  14. #8639  
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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  15. #8640  
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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  17. #8642 Thanks! 
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    Podcast
    Marc Lawrence's September 15 Podcast with Victor King - /soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2021-09-15-marc-lawrence-podcast
    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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  21. #8646  
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    Quote Originally Posted by rv5858 View Post
    Anyone have the Brad Powers newsletter yet?

    Powers' Picks
    - /drive.google.com/file/d/1WBSK8ZXVZVXan_RI1DZ6KyO5FmGC7n_f/view?usp=sharing
    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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  23. #8648 How about those Raiders! 
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    Thanks to our loyal contributors! Also thanks to the contributors over at Cappersmall and Menodza Line on his excellent record keeping.

    Your newsletters, records, comments or anything else you want to post is welcomed here. If you are new here, be sure to say hi!

    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 85, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.
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    • Chris Fallica
    • Steve Coughlin




    "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
    Records:
    The Bear (Last Week: 1-2, Season: 3-4)
    Stanford Steve (Last Week: 3-2, Season: 6-4)

    Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

    The Plays


    Auburn Tigers at Penn State Nittany Lions (-5, 53)
    Stanford Steve: The White Out is back! Auburn comes in with two impressive wins over inferior opponents in new Coach Brian Harsin's first two home games in Jordan-Hare Stadium. This game is not in Jordan-Hare. I know QB Bo Nix has played in a couple Iron Bowls and road games in the SEC. But, this is a different deal in State College, and the idea of Nix in his new system in this environment makes me think the Penn State defense will have a major advantage when those two are going against each other. The Penn State offense hasn't been great to start the season, but I think the talent level is a lot higher than what Auburn has faced. I'll lay the points with the home team.
    Pick: Penn State -5 (Penn State 27, Auburn 19)


    Purdue Boilermakers at No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 58)
    Fallica: I might be taking the bait here with this number being north of seven points, but you've got me. Is there a bit of everyone getting super excited after that stand-alone Sunday night game in Tallahassee? What if it was just two average teams playing a fun OT game? The Irish OL has been unusually below average. Somehow ND is averaging 2.7 YPC!!! There have been injuries adding up, and Marcus' Freeman's defense has been disappointing. People have been expecting Jeff Brohm's team to take a step forward for a while now, and maybe this will be the year. Losing RB Zander Horvath hurts, but if QB Jack Plummer can stay healthy, this team will put up points in 2021.
    Pick: Purdue +7

    Boston College Eagles (-15.5, 57) at Temple Owls
    Stanford Steve: The news this week has not been good out of Chestnut Hill, as they have suffered serious injuries, most notably QB Phil Jurkovec. But when you talk to people in and around the BC program, they are very excited see what new QB Dennis Grosel, will bring to the table with his experience and energy. On the other side, you have Temple, who has not been impressive in any way, shape or form this year, which even includes a win over Akron. I think BC comes out with a focus around their new QB and takes care of the Owls.
    Pick: Boston College -15.5 (Boston College 34, Temple 10)

    No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3, 50.5)

    Fallica: The Mountaineers played pretty well in the season-opening loss at Maryland. They certainly had their chances. I'm a fan of RB Leddie Brown, and the defense has played better than I had expected after losing key starters at every level. The Hokies pulled off the season-opening upset of North Carolina, but my sense is that was more a product of UNC imploding in a hostile road environment than it was VT being a great team, as VT had 296 yards and averaged just three yards a carry.
    Pick: West Virginia -3

    Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 13 UCLA Bruins (-11.5, 63)
    Fallica: The immediate reaction by many, I'm sure is to take Fresno and the points. But UCLA has had a week off since the blowout win over LSU, and all the news of the USC head coaching change has probably taken the Bruins out of the news cycle some. I doubt Oregon would admit it, but I wonder if after grabbing a quick 14-0 lead and then a 21-6 lead, if the Ducks minds wandered to Columbus. That win will certainly move Fresno up in the minds of many, but Brittain Brown and Zach Charbonnet have run the ball at will, UCLA hasn't turned it over yet this season and the defense has allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempt. I'm laying the points here.
    Pick: UCLA -11.5

    Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-3.5 57.5)
    Stanford Steve: I have not liked what I have seen from the Cowboys in their first two games this year. I know they have had QB Spencer Sanders in only one of those games, but it has been far from what I have expected in a Mike Gundy offense. The Boise State offense has shown way more capability in their first two games as they have scored 85 points combined with the help of the defense and special teams. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has thrown for over 600 yards in those games while they have rushed for just over 100 yards in those two games. I anticipate a very balanced and dominant performance from the Broncos.
    Pick: Boise State -3.5 (Boise State 41, Oklahoma State 20)

    Fallica: Boise State did everything but win its season-opener at UCF and easily could be 2-0 right now. Oklahoma State has been an enigma. The Cowboys have made such strides defensively in the last couple of years, but the running game has disappeared, and the health of QB Spencer Sanders seems like its a weekly concern. It's a rare opportunity for the Broncos to get a Power Five team on their home field, and I think new head coach Andy Avalos' will have a solid game plan to keep that Oklahoma State offense in check and do enough offensively to get the win.
    Pick: Boise State -3.5

    Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-22, 62)
    Stanford Steve: Points! Points! Points! That is the forecast for Norman, Oklahoma on Saturday around noon Eastern time. Both teams will contribute on the offensive side of the ball.
    Pick: Over 62 (Oklahoma 48, Nebraska 24)

    Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-5, 61.5)
    Fallica: I'm a bit surprised this number has come down. Not sure I'd want to be backing the 'Noles right now after blowing a double-digit lead vs. an FCS team and being shredded by Jack Coan in the opener. We all want to see McKenzie Milton do well, but in two games, he's averaging 4.8 yards per attempt. Jordan Travis is completing 41% of his passes, and three of his 22 passes have been picked off. The best quarterback on the field is Wake's Sam Hartman. Wake has an excellent running game and a coach in Dave Clawson that gets the best out of his team's talent, which is underrated. I like the Deacs to continue FSU's struggles.
    Pick: Wake Forest -5
    Stanford Steve: We have all seen how the Seminoles lost to Jacksonville State, and I have to wonder how they will rebound after two such brutal losses. Now, they have a trip to Winston Salem to play against one of the best-coached teams in the league in Wake Forest. The Deacs are more than capable to take advantage of the 'Noles weaknesses with QB Sam Hartman, who has thrown for more than 440 yards and 4 TDs in his first two games of the year. The expectation is the Demon Deacons, who are the better team, will play well and take care of business
    Pick: Wake Forest -5 (Wake Forest 38, Florida State 17)

    Arizona State Sun Devils (-4, 51) at BYU Cougars
    This is the third-straight Pac-12 game to start the year for BYU. I can't help but feel BYU will have a little bit of a hangover after snapping that losing streak vs. Utah. While ASU hasn't been great to start the year, I think the Sun Devils play their best game of the young season and get a solid road win.
    Pick: Arizona State -4

    Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. San Jose State Spartans (-6.5, 61)
    Fallica: The eventual MWC champs went to Hawaii last year and won by 11. RB Kairee Robinson and Tyler Nevens both had huge games, as QB Nick Starkel was just 11-23. The Spartans have been off since the 30-7 loss to USC (was 13-7 in 4th quarter), but I like Hawaii here. Both losses have come on the mainland to Pac-12 foes, and now they host a MWC opponent that probably won't have the offensive skill those teams did. Yes, Todd Graham's team will need to be better on defense vs. the SJSU running game, but grabbing seven points is certainly appealing.
    Pick: Hawaii +6.5

    The Bear's money-line parlay

    Last Week: -100
    Season: -200

    *Let the record show the last thing Clay Helton did as USC head coach was kill our ML parlay.

    $100 returns $60
    Louisiana Rajin' Cajuns -1300
    Michigan Wolverines -4500
    Eastern Michigan Eagles -1300
    Boston College Eagles -750
    Alabama Crimson Tide -750
    Iowa Hawkeyes -2000
    Ohio State Buckeyes -4000
    Baylor Bears -1000
    UCLA Bruins -450


    The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line

    Last Week: 1-3, -1.8 units
    Season: 5-5, +6.85 units

    Michigan State Spartans +210
    Purdue Boilermakers +245
    Duke Blue Devils +125
    Memphis Tigers +150
    Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +220
    East Carolina Pirates +320


    Bear Bytes


    Michigan State Spartans at No. 24 Miami Hurricanes
    In Miami's last 25 games as a favorite, the 'Canes are 14-11 on the field and 10-15 ATS.
    No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers
    Since 2016, there have been 23 Top 20 teams which were underdogs to an unranked team. Those 23 teams went 7-16 outright.
    No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats at Indiana Hoosiers
    Since 2015, there have been 24 Group of Five teams favored away from home vs. a Power Five team. Those 24 teams went 17-7 outright and 13-9-2 ATS.


    Purdue Boilermakers at No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
    Under Jeff Brohm, Purdue has been a road underdog seven times. The Boilermakers went 6-1 ATS with two outright wins.
    Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
    Since 2017, FSU is 12-20 in ACC play and 10-20-2 ATS. Since 2018, FSU is 2-12 on the road. The 'Noles only two wins in that span have come over Steve Addazio and Bobby Petrino coached teams, and their average margin of defeat in those road games is 20.1 PPG. The Noles are 3-10-1 in those 14 games.
    Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars
    Under Herm Edwards, ASU is 5-12 ATS with five outright losses as a favorite.



    EXCLUSIVE CONTENT


    Week 3 college football best bets: Will Florida keep up with Alabama?


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    Bryce Young has thrown seven TD passes this season and is completing 70% of his throws. Gary Cosby/USA TODAY Sports
    Sep 15, 2021
    • College Football Betting Insiders




    Intro by Doug Kezirian
    Whenever Nick Saban and Alabama take the field, they seemingly are breaking or extending a record -- and Saturday will be just the latest case. The Crimson Tide are poised to become the largest road favorite over an AP top-15 team since 2000, laying 15.5 points against the No. 11 Florida Gators.
    "How much of this line is an overreaction to how dominant 'Bama was against Miami," pro bettor Jay Romano said to ESPN, referencing the Crimson Tide's 44-13 mauling in the season opener. "The Gators have a better defense than Miami. They're playing (at home) in The Swamp. They're familiar with this Alabama team and have been able to play with them the last couple years. And we haven't seen Bryce Young in a hostile environment."
    Alabama is favored for an 83rd straight game, which is the nation's longest active streak, and is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games games as double-digit favorite. The public will ride the Tide and thus they will have to pay a tax to back Saban, who is 10-0 in his career against Dan Mullen.
    "You're never going to make a living betting against 'Bama. I don't care about the situation. However, having said that, where is the Florida money coming from other than the sharps? This line is likely going up," Romano said. "It's taking everything in me not to grab the 15.5 points."


    Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (4-9 overall, 2-6 last week), Bill Connelly (6-4, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (2-1, 1-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (5-4, 1-3) and David M. Hale (2-5, 1-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
    Here are their best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
    Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
    Saturday's best bets


    No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3, 50.5), Noon ET

    Connelly: I'm just putting total trust in SP+ in this one. It had Virginia Tech a healthy 33rd to start the season -- certainly higher than most humans had them -- and the Hokies have looked fantastic thus far, actually rising to 22nd. WVU feasted on FCS newcomer Long Island last week but got outplayed significantly by Maryland in Week 1, and I'm honestly not really sure why the Mountaineers are favored. It should be pretty tight, and even the Tech-loving SP+ has it only a three-point game. But Tech should probably be the three-point favorite, not WVU.
    Pick: Virginia Tech +3


    Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 25 Michigan Wolverines (-27, 54), Noon ET

    Connelly: Time to put faith in ... Michigan? What could possibly go wrong? The Wolverines have looked legitimately strong in their first two games, and while those games were against WMU and Washington, they overachieved against the closing line by a combined 31 points. SP+ has had a stronger read on UM than the books so far and thinks this is more like a five-touchdown game, not four.
    NIU has done better than expected thanks to bursts -- two quick touchdowns in the first half against Georgia Tech in a one-point win and an out-of-nowhere four-touchdown binge to turn a 26-point deficit against Wyoming into a brief one-point lead -- but while that shows plenty of heart and opportunism, it probably isn't sustainable. UM should be able to avoid a binge and win comfortably.
    Pick: Michigan -27


    Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 58.5), 2:30 p.m. ET

    Kezirian: I respect situational spots probably more than most handicappers. It's hard to imagine a worse one than what both Florida State and Notre Dame faced last weekend, coming off a short week and overtime thriller. Neither covered, but at least Notre Dame escaped the upset bid. The Irish survived Toledo and now seem like a good buy-low opportunity. I trust Brian Kelly to get his team back on track. Purdue has handled its business in the first two games, but this is a step up in class compared to its first two opponents. I think the rivalry game brings out the best week of practice for the golden domers and we see a convincing win Saturday.
    Pick: Notre Dame -7
    Fortenbaugh: What does this game mean to Notre Dame? I ask because with several marquee matchups on the schedule, it's easy for the Purdue game to slip through the cracks, especially when you consider a Soldier Field showdown with Wisconsin is on deck for the Irish. For the Boilermakers, this game means everything, as evidenced by the fact that Purdue is 5-1 against the spread in its last six trips to South Bend. Additionally, Jeff Brohm's squad is 17-5 ATS over its last 22 games as an underdog. That Irish defense has been highly suspect through two games, allowing a grand total of 67 points while ranking 64th in opponent yards per play. Purdue should be able to move the ball in this one.
    Pick: Purdue +7


    No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5, 58.5) at No. 11 Florida Gators, 3:30 p.m. ET

    Fortenbaugh: Led by quarterback Bryce Young, who is currently completing 70% of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, Alabama's offense shouldn't have an issue scoring on a Florida defense that has already surrendered 34 total points to Florida Atlantic and South Florida. I know 34 points may not seem like a lot, but it's Florida Atlantic and South Florida! The Gators are currently deploying a two-quarterback system featuring Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, the latter of whom has put up huge ground numbers (11 carries, 275 yards, two touchdowns) and should pose problems for a Tide front seven that is already down linebacker Christopher Allen (foot) and could be without linebacker Will Anderson (knee). Florida's offensive pace should put this number over the top.
    Pick: Over 58.5


    Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes (-26.5, 61), 3:30 p.m. ET

    Fulghum: Love this spot for Ohio State to bounce back in front of the home fans in a "get right" spot. C.J. Stroud and his bevy of wide receivers should light up the Tulsa secondary. After the loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes have a great opportunity and the incentive to go off and light up an inferior opponent.
    Pick: Ohio State first quarter -7


    Old Dominion Monarchs at Liberty Flames (-27.5, 54), 6 p.m. ET on ESPN3

    Fulghum: Liberty is 2-0 ATS so far this season and has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Malik Willis and head coach Hugh Freeze. As a small school independent, the Flames are incentivized to run up the score as often as they can, and Freeze is more than happy to do so. The Liberty defense is also pretty stout, holding opponents to just 10.0 PPG this season
    Pick: Liberty -27.5


    Utah Utes (-7.5, 44.5) at San Diego State Aztecs, 7 p.m. ET

    Fortenbaugh: This is an excellent buy-low spot on the Utes, who are coming off a brutal Holy War performance against BYU in which Utah converted only 2-of-9 third-down opportunities, finished -2 in turnover differential and held the ball for just over 24 minutes in a nine-point loss despite closing as seven-point favorites. Take note that the Utes are 11-3 against the spread in the regular season when coming off a loss over the last five years. Don't expect much from an anemic San Diego State offense that is currently overvalued following wins against New Mexico State and Arizona -- two horrific programs.
    Pick: Utah -7.5


    No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6, 53), 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

    Kezirian: I am really pumped to watch this game. Not only is the "white out" atmosphere going to resonate, but I want to see a Big Ten school like Penn State deliver against an SEC school like Auburn. If you may recall, my favorite season win total play was Auburn under seven wins. This is a situation where I anticipated a loss, and that's because of Bo Nix's road woes. In 12 starts away from Jordan-Hare Stadium, he has never surpassed 300 passing yards and has only thrown three TD passes once. Plus, he's not exactly lights out on the plains.
    I expect Auburn to approach things very conservatively on offense and lean on its strong defense. Penn State has demonstrated a stout defense as well, so this should be a low-scoring battle most of the way. I am a bit concerned that one team may unravel in the second half, much like we saw with Iowa and Iowa State last weekend. So I'll ride with the first half under.
    Pick: First half under 26.5


    Stanford Cardinal (-11, 49) at Vanderbilt Commodores, 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU

    Kezirian: Perhaps people do change, contrary to what jaded daters will tell you. Stanford is now an offensive juggernaut and David Shaw is comfortable throwing the ball, especially when protecting a lead. Okay, that's a bit much, but Stanford did unveil a much different offense last week with its dominant win at USC. Tanner McKee took over the starting quarterback job and showed why he was such a top recruit. The QB turned down offers from high-profile programs like Florida and Auburn; he was the No. 3 pocket passer in the class of 2018, right behind Trevor Lawrence and J.T. Daniels, before taking two years off for his LDS mission. His 16-for-23 passing performance with two touchdowns against USC was no fluke.
    On the flip side, Vanderbilt is still abysmal. Yes, the Commodores rallied from a 14-0 deficit to pick up their first win last week, but it came against Colorado State. Both schools suffered convincing losses to FCS schools in their openers. Vandy should get smoked, even if it's consecutive road games for the Cardinal.
    Pick: Stanford -12
    Connelly: Pretty much what Doug said. SP+ isn't designed to account for things like "You played the first game with the wrong quarterback," but it still projects the Cardinal to win by 14.8. Any extra adjustment you give them for playing McKee makes this an even safer bet, and that's before we talk about the fact that Vandy's win over (a very bad) CSU came with the Commodores getting outgained by two yards per play. This should indeed be a blowout.
    Pick: Stanford -12


    Rice Owls at Texas Longhorns (-26, 52.5), 8 p.m. ET

    Connelly: Like Stanford, Texas might have begun the season with the wrong quarterback. Hudson Card was solid against Louisiana but overwhelmed against Arkansas, and Casey Thompson filled in and both steadied the ship and, evidently, won the starting job. He'll be the first-stringer against Rice.
    Again, as with the Stanford game, SP+ liked Texas to cover (it says UT by 32.9), even without any sort of "correct quarterback" adjustment. Rice games can be tricky since they can slow the tempo way down at times, but if Thompson's insertion means any sort of bonus points for the Horns, they should win by four-plus touchdowns.
    Pick: Texas -26


    No. 19 Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5, 51.5) at No. 23 BYU Cougars, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN

    Fortenbaugh: This is a major flat spot for a BYU program that just defeated archrival Utah in the Holy War for the first time since 2009. Take note that everything broke right for the Cougars in that contest, from their performance on third down (11-for-19) to turnover differential (+2) to time of possession (35:26). Arizona State plays a nasty brand of defense in which the Sun Devils have allowed just 24 points through two contests while holding the opposition to a paltry 2.8 yards per play (third in the NCAA). Also note that ASU brings back 20 starters from a squad that went 3-0 against the spread on the road last season.
    Pick: Arizona State -3.5


    Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 13 UCLA Bruins (-11.5, 62.5), 10:45 p.m. ET

    Connelly: SP+ has had a strong read on UCLA as well, so let's ride that hot streak until it runs out. Fresno State has been one of the stronger teams in the Mountain West thus far and threw a scare into Oregon with a second-half charge, but UCLA rode a dynamite run game and aggressive defense to a blowout of Hawaii and a shockingly comfortable win over LSU. There's always a chance that Chip Kelly's Bruins spent their bye week reading the proverbial press clippings -- are clippings still a thing? -- and come out flat after their big win. If that's the case, or if their aggression is misplaced and takes some counterpunches, they could struggle for a while. But UCLA has shown just about as much raw upside as any team outside of Tuscaloosa or Athens, so let's ride that out until SP+'s faith actually proves misplaced. It says UCLA by 18.1, and that's good enough for me.
    Pick: UCLA -11.5





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