Service Plays Tuesday 11/5/13

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Tuesday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (+23.5, OFF)

Coming off back-to-back heartwrenching losses to Mississippi State and Toledo, the Bowling Green Falcons need a bounceback in the worst way. Miami of Ohio presents a golden opportunity for that as the Mid-American Conference rivals meet Tuesday night at Yager Stadium. Bowling Green dropped both games by a combined four points, but should respond well against a RedHawks team still looking for its first win of the season.

The Falcons fell behind 21-0 to Toledo in its previous game, then roared back to score 25 straight points before allowing Terrance Owens' go-ahead 11-yard touchdown pass to Alonzo Russell with 1:22 remaining. Despite the setback, Bowling Green remains in the hunt for the MAC East title. No such aspirations exist for Miami (Ohio), which was thumped 41-16 in Ohio 10 days ago and is averaging a paltry 10.9 points per game.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: Bowling Green opened as a 24.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped one point since.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (5-3, 3-1 MAC): While the defense gets most of the attention - and rightfully so - sophomore quarterback Matt Johnson is quietly putting together a terrific season. Johnson has thrown for 1,827 yards - good for fourth in the conference - and while he has just nine touchdown passes, he has been only been picked off three times. Travis Greene has also been solid offensively, ranked third in the MAC with 906 rushing yards.

ABOUT MIAMI (OHIO) (0-8, 0-4 MAC): The numbers are bad across the board for the RedHawks, who are one of only a handful of winless teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Miami ranks dead last in the 13-team conference in total yards per game at 228.1 - 60 fewer than the closest team (Massachusetts) and more than 100 fewer than 11th-place Central Michigan. Quarterback Austin Boucher has thrown at least one TD pass in five straight games.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Redhawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Under is 12-3 in Miami's last 15 games following a SU win.

Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo Bulls (-4, OFF)

First place in the Mid-American Conference's East Division is at stake Tuesday night when the Buffalo Bills host the Ohio Bobcats at UB Stadium. The Bulls have reeled off six consecutive wins since dropping consecutive decisions to ranked foes Ohio State and Baylor. The Bobcats should present a formidable challenge, having won five of six - including back-to-back games in which they outscored Eastern Michigan and Miami (Ohio) by a combined 53 points.

Tuesday's matchup pits two of the conference's most formidable pass offenses against one another. Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton has already thrown for more than 2,000 yards and is coming off a 306-yard, three-touchdown performance against the RedHawks. He'll be opposed by Buffalo QB Joe Licata, who threw two touchdown passes in a win over Kent State on Oct. 26 and hasn't been intercepted in his last four games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2
LINE: Buffalo is a four-point favorite after opening at -2.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing north across the length of the field at 5 mph.

ABOUT OHIO (6-2, 3-1 MAC): The Bobcats have plenty at stake Tuesday beyond the ability to move into a first-place tie with Buffalo atop the east. A victory would move Ohio over the .500 mark all-time for the first time since the start of the 1995 season. The Bobcats will also be looking to surpass the 40-point plateau for the third consecutive contest - something they haven't done since 2000.

ABOUT BUFFALO (6-2, 4-0 MAC): As prolific as Licata has been this season, the Bulls have been equally dependent on standout running back Branden Oliver. The talented senior exploded for 216 rushing yards in a victory over UMass back on Oct. 19 to become the school's all-time yardage leader, passing current Green Bay Packers running back James Starks. Oliver ranks fourth in the conference in both rushing yards (874) and rushing touchdowns (nine).

TRENDS:

* Bobcats are 7-1-1 in their last nine games following a bye week.
* Bulls are 5-0 in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Tuesday's Champions League betting cheat sheet

Champions League action resumes this week and a few teams in action Tuesday must achieve a positive result of some sort or kiss their European dreams good bye.

Juventus v Real Madrid (+150, +275, +180)

Why bet Juventus: It hasn't been the best of starts in Turin, but Juve has started to play like we expect them too. In Serie A, at least. The Old Lady has stumbled out of the gate in Europe, but with their backs against the wall and a three-match winning streak in Italy, they could be in store for a better performance in front of the home fans.

Key players out/doubtful: Simone Pepe, Mirko Vucinic, Stephan Lichtsteiner, Giorgio Chiellini

Why bet Real Madrid: The Group B leaders are hot, having won all three of their Champions League matches thus far. Madrid leads the competition in possession (55.5 percent) and passing accuracy (88.5 percent) and, save for Fábio Coentrão, fully healthy.

Key players out/doubtful: Fábio Coentrão

Key betting note: Juve has won the last four home matches versus Madrid (all competitions).

Olympiakos v Benfica (+138, +240, +220)

Why bet Olympiakos: The Greek Super League leaders are on an absolute tear domestically having won five-straight matches and will know how vital this match is. The winner here gets a leg up in Group C, so the home side should come out to impress.

Key players out/doubtful: Ariel Ibagaza, Gaëtan Bong, Paulo Machado

Why bet Benfica: The Portuguese side is another that is playing well domestically, but have not impressed early in Europe. They look like the better side on paper with players like Nicolas Gaitán, Óscar Cardozo and Filip Djuricic leading the attack and a 1-1 draw at home in the reverse fixture should be fuel for revenge.

Key players out/doubtful: Eduardo Salvio, Silvio

Key betting note: Olympiakos has played over the 2.5 goal total in the previous five home games (all competitions).

Tuesday's other matches with odds:

FC Copenhagen v Galatasaray (+250, +250, +120)
Manchester City v CSKA Moscow (-500, +650, +1600)
PSG v Anderlecht (-800, +900, +2500)
Real Sociedad v Manchester United (+188, +240, +160)
Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer Leverkusen (+115, +270, +250)
Viktoria Plzen v Bayern Munich (+2000, +850, -700)

Chicago Syndicate

Top CFB play - Ohio U. +4

NBA
Heat -5
Pacers (ML)

LA Syndicate

Top NBA plays
Mavs/Lakers Under 214
Spurs/Nuggets Over 201

SpOrTs-JuNkiE's 11-05-13 ($500 Play of the Day!!)

NBA: Indiana vs Detroit (7:35 pm est.)

$500 NBA Play: Detroit +2 (bh) (-120) (Bovada) vs Indiana

NHL

Hot teams
-- Washington won three of its last four home games. Islanders won their last two games, allowing five goals.
-- Blues won three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota won five of its last six games.
-- Phoenix won six of last seven games. Canucks won five of their last six.

Cold teams
-- Dallas Stars are 3-5 in their last eight games. Bruins lost three of last four.
-- Ottawa lost its last five games, allowing 22 goals. Blue Jackets lost their last three games.
-- Canadiens lost five of their last eight games.
-- Oilers lost last five games- they got shut out in last two. Florida lost eight of its last nine.
-- Carolina lost last five games, outscored 18-5. Flyers lost six of their last nine games.
-- Flames lost six of their last nine games.
-- Sabres lost seven of their last eight games. San Jose lost its last two, one in SO, one OT.

Totals
-- Four of last five Dallas road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Islander games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Ottawa games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Edmonton games went under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Philadelphia games this season.
-- Five of last six Calgary games went over the total.
-- Last four Vancouver games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Buffalo road games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Dallas/Boston split their last four meetings.
-- Washington won nine of last 13 games against the Islanders.
-- Home side won five of last six Columbus-Ottawa games.
-- Blues won four of last five games against Montreal.
-- Oilers won five of their last six games with Florida.
-- Flyers won 15 of last 18 games against Carolina.
-- Flames are 4-3 in their last seven visits to Minnesota.
-- Canucks won four of last five visits to Phoenix.
-- Sabres won six of their last seven games with San Jose.

NBA

Hot teams
-- Raptors won two of their first three games.
-- Pacers won their first three games, by 10-5-15 points. Detroit won its first two home games, by 10-11 points.
-- Suns won two of their first three games.
-- Mavericks won their first two home games, by 9-12 points.
-- Spurs won two of first three games, splitting pair on road.
-- Portland won its last two games, by 15-10 points. Houston won three of their first four games.

Cold teams
-- Heat lost its two road games by a total of five points.
-- Jazz lost its first three games, by 3-3-11 points. Brooklyn lost two of first three games, beating Miami by point in its only home game.
-- Charlotte is 0-2 on road, losing by 13-21 points. Knicks lost last two games, to Bulls/Wolves.
-- Pelicans lost two of first three games.
-- Lakers lost two of last three games; they lost by 31 in only road game.
-- Nuggets lost their first two games, by 2-15 points.
-- Hawks lost first two road games, by 2-9 points. Sacramento lost its last two games, by 9-11 points.

Series records
-- Miami won its last 11 games vs Toronto, covering six of last nine.
-- Nets lost eight of its last nine games with Utah.
-- Pacers won seven of last eight games with Detroit (6-2 vs spread).
-- Knicks won five of last six games with Charlotte, but covered only two of last eight.
-- Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in Suns' last eight visits to NO.
-- Lakers won seven of last eight games against Dallas, winning last four in Texas by 5-16-26-4 points.
-- Spurs lost three of their last four visits to Denver.
-- Rockets won six of last eight games with Portland; three of last seven in series went to OT.
-- Hawks won their last nine games with Sacramento, winning last five here, by 5-8-6-7-16 points.

Totals
-- Over is 6-3 in Miami's last nine visits to Toronto.
-- Under is 2-1 in first thrr egames for both Jazz, Nets.
-- First three Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 2-1 in first three games for both Bobcats, Knicks.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Phoenix-New Orleans games.
-- Three of four Laker games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1 in Spurs' last five visits to Denver.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Houston-Portland games.
-- Seven of last eight Hawk-King games went over the total.

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Ohio at Buffalo[/h] The Bobcats look to build on their 7-1-1 ATS record in their last 9 games following a bye week. Ohio is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+4). Here are all of today's games.

Today's NBA Picks

Indiana at Detroit

The Pacers are coming off an 89-74 win over Cleveland on Saturday and look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after allowing less than 75 points in the previous game. Indiana is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

St. Louis at Montreal

The Blues look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is coming off a 4-1 loss to Colorado on Saturday and is 0-5 in its last 5 games following a defeat by 3 or more goals. St. Louis is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

College football line watch: Auburn backers act now

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Auburn Tigers (-7.5) at Tennessee Volunteers

Never mind the tick over a key number, because by the end of the week, we suspect that Auburn backers might have to be worrying about the next pivot number up the ladder at 10.

There has already been some appetite in the marketplace for the Tigers, who opened a solid 7 at most outlets for this SEC clash at Knoxville.

With six-straight wins and spread covers, and improving by the week, Gus Malzahn’s team is starting to attract lots of attention, and the public can be expected to keep betting up the new “it” team on the college football map.

Outscored 76-13 the past two weeks by Bama and Mizzou, Tennessee is not going to get a lot of support from the sports book patrons.

Grab the 7.5 now with Auburn before the price challenges the next key number resistance point at 10 later in the week.

Spread to wait on

USC Trojans at Cal Golden Bears (+17)

Though Cal has quietly covered two games on the trot after dropping 12 straight on the board from mid 2012 to mid-October 2013, Golden Bear support headed to the Sierras long ago.

Enduring the worst season in Berkeley since Tom Holmoe’s last campaign in 2001, Cal is hardly a public team these days. And the sharps stopped paying attention to Cal (unless as a go-against) long before HC Sonny Dykes arrived on the scene.

USC, however, can quickly rally its legion of followers with efforts such as last Friday’s 31-14 romp past Oregon State, which has revived hope that the Trojans can salvage a decent bowl bid out of what has already been a disrupted season featuring HC Lane Kiffin’s dismissal.

Further, it has been one-way traffic in this series over most of the last decade, with SC winning the last nine meetings outright, and covering 7 of the last 8, mostly by significant margins. The Golden Bears are also 1-8 vs. the line in their last nine in Strawberry Canyon.

We suspect Cal backers can get a few more points, perhaps close to the next key numbers up the scale at 20 or even 21, by waiting until later in the week. The Bears’ recent spread-covering efforts at least suggests they are still playing hard, and Cal might offer decent value at the higher price.

Total to watch

BYU Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers

We are very curious to note where the oddsmakers will place the total in this fascinating November intersectional at Madison.

Both BYU and Wisconsin are 5-3 to the Under this campaign, and perceptions of the two teams might suggest a suppressed total at Camp Randall Stadium.

The Cougars, however, have accelerated their offensive pace in recent games behind emerging soph QB Taysom Hill, and have scored 31 or more in five straight outings.

The extra angle is the coaching matchup between BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall and Wiscy’s Gary Andersen, both defensive experts by trade.

Last season, when Andersen coached at Utah State, the Cougs and Utags played one of the best defensive wars of 2012, with BYU prevailing 6-3, one of the easiest Unders of last season.

We will be curious to see if the oddsmakers respect the reputations of these coaches and recent defense-oriented nature of the respective programs, or bend to the current reality of potent offenses each way and post this total well into the 50s.

Backing NFL backup QBs not as bad as you think

Life is tough for NFL quarterbacks these days.

Out of 32 NFL teams, 11 have dealt with either a switch under center or injuries to their No. 1 QB at some point this season. But while a drastic shift at the most important position in football would normally spell doom for a team and their pointspread chances, these scrambled squads have actually been a better bet when starting their second stringer.

The 11 teams – Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Oakland, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis – are a combined 21-37-3 ATS with their first-string passer in the lineup (36.8 percent ATS). Those same teams, excluding Chicago (which starts No. 2 Josh McCown Monday night in place of injured No. 1 Jay Cutler), are 13-16 ATS (44.8 percent ATS) with their backups wielding the offense.

The biggest reason for this uptick in ATS winning percentage is the adjustment to those spreads with backup QBs in play. Oddsmakers tack on extra points and the betting public jumps on the other side, moving the line even further. Also, of the quarterbacks either replaced or injured so far this season, none are among the NFL's elite passers - Cutler excluded - so the dropoff in offensive execution hasn't been as severe.

The Cleveland Browns are the most extreme example of this trend, going 1-3 ATS under starter Brandon Weeden but 5-0 ATS with backups Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer getting the starting nod. The Browns added to the tally with Campbell passing for 262 yards and three touchdowns in a 24-18 win over the Baltimore Ravens Sunday.

The Buffalo Bills have had the biggest downgraded when it comes to covering the spread, starting the season 3-1 ATS with rookie QB E.J. Manuel slinging the ball until a knee injury forced the Buffalo to go down the depth chart. Since then, the Bills are 2-3 ATS with Jeff Tuel and Thaddeus Lewis stepping in. Luckily for Buffalo backers, Manuel is expected to return against the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) this Sunday.

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Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Phoenix -130

Florida/Edmonton under 5.5

Cappers Access

Buffalo U -3.5
Miami-Ohio +23
Raptors +6