Service Plays Saturday 11/9/13

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College Football odds

Week 11 Opening Line Report

Offensive fireworks will come early in Week 11.

A pair of Thursday night games feature the two highest-scoring offenses in the land in each tilt.

The first of which is a huge Pac-12 affair between the Stanford Cardinal (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) and the unbeaten and explosive Oregon Ducks (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS).

The Ducks are second in the nation averaging 55.6 points per game and are yet to be tested. Lost amid the flurry of hype around the offense, is a very solid defensive unit that is seventh in points against at 16.9.

They are coming off a bye week and disposed of UCLA with relative ease 42-14 on Oct. 26.

The Cardinal are in the midst of a great season in their own right, with just one hiccup at Utah along the way.

They too are coming off a bye week after taming Sean Mannion and the Oregon State offense with a 20-12 victory on Oct. 26.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, knows that despite the high-octane offense, Oregon will be tested by a tough Cardinal defense.

"Stanford has the defense but can only hope to slow Oregon down here and there," Korner. "Our range was from Oregon -10.5 to -15. We had requests for this game last week and we put out Oregon -14. After looking at it again, we kept the same number."

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (-16)

The "other" Thursday matchup featuring a score-at-will offense is this Big 12 tilt in Waco, TX.

The Bears (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) boast the highest-scoring offense around, tallying an astronomical 63.9 points per game.

Not just another team coming off a bye week, but a team that put up a massive victory in their last effort. The Bears rocked the Kansas Jayhawks 59-14 on Oct. 26.

Save for a disappointing loss in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) have put together an excellent season. The Sooners haven't been kind to their backers of late, however, as they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.

"When it comes to Baylor, I usually just go with the highest number. This time I settled for Baylor -16," says Korner. "As always, you're asking any team Baylor plays to pick up their scoring. Because Oklahoma can compete (and win straight up), we do have some respect for them."

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-6)

A tough loss for Wolverines (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) on the weekend as in-state rival Michigan State easily outplayed them en route to the 29-6 victory.

Nebraska (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) bounced back from a loss at Minnesota on Oct. 26 with a victory over Northwestern. The Huskers should count their blessings, however, as the win came as a result of a Hail Mary as the clock hit zeroes. It was the second-straight game which the Huskers failed to cover.

Korner and his team of oddsmakers were all on the same page for this bringing similar numbers to the table.

"We had a range from Michigan -5 to -7 and that made it easy to stick a -6 as our send out," confirms Korner. "This game could go either way and we don't suspect a lot of movement with this line from where it opens."

LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-14)

The top defense in the nation will be tested by one of the more potent offenses in the land in this batle of SEC heavyweights.

This will be a test for 'Bama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) as a win here puts them on the cusp of an unbeaten season heading into the Bowl games. They have a pair of easy games (Mississippi State, Chattanooga) before closing the season at the Auburn Tigers.

LSU (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) would love to play spoiler for the Tide's unbeaten aspirations. At 40.2 points per game, the Tigers are 16th in the nation in scoring, but both of their defeats have come on the road this season.

Korner and his team all brought double-digit spreads to the table and settled on -14.

"We had Alabama -12, -14 and -16 so we put out -14, right in the middle," states Korner. "'Bama fans will think that's too low and LSU fans should drool with two TD's to start."

College Football Line Watch Auburn Backers Act Now

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Auburn Tigers (-7.5) at Tennessee Volunteers

Never mind the tick over a key number, because by the end of the week, we suspect that Auburn backers might have to be worrying about the next pivot number up the ladder at 10.

There has already been some appetite in the marketplace for the Tigers, who opened a solid 7 at most outlets for this SEC clash at Knoxville.

With six-straight wins and spread covers, and improving by the week, Gus Malzahn’s team is starting to attract lots of attention, and the public can be expected to keep betting up the new “it” team on the college football map.

Outscored 76-13 the past two weeks by Bama and Mizzou, Tennessee is not going to get a lot of support from the sports book patrons.

Grab the 7.5 now with Auburn before the price challenges the next key number resistance point at 10 later in the week.

Spread to Wait on

USC Trojans at Cal Golden Bears (+17)

Though Cal has quietly covered two games on the trot after dropping 12 straight on the board from mid 2012 to mid-October 2013, Golden Bear support headed to the Sierras long ago.

Enduring the worst season in Berkeley since Tom Holmoe’s last campaign in 2001, Cal is hardly a public team these days. And the sharps stopped paying attention to Cal (unless as a go-against) long before HC Sonny Dykes arrived on the scene.

USC, however, can quickly rally its legion of followers with efforts such as last Friday’s 31-14 romp past Oregon State, which has revived hope that the Trojans can salvage a decent bowl bid out of what has already been a disrupted season featuring HC Lane Kiffin’s dismissal.

Further, it has been one-way traffic in this series over most of the last decade, with SC winning the last nine meetings outright, and covering 7 of the last 8, mostly by significant margins. The Golden Bears are also 1-8 vs. the line in their last nine in Strawberry Canyon.

We suspect Cal backers can get a few more points, perhaps close to the next key numbers up the scale at 20 or even 21, by waiting until later in the week. The Bears’ recent spread-covering efforts at least suggests they are still playing hard, and Cal might offer decent value at the higher price.

Total to Watch

BYU Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers

We are very curious to note where the oddsmakers will place the total in this fascinating November intersectional at Madison.

Both BYU and Wisconsin are 5-3 to the Under this campaign, and perceptions of the two teams might suggest a suppressed total at Camp Randall Stadium.

The Cougars, however, have accelerated their offensive pace in recent games behind emerging soph QB Taysom Hill, and have scored 31 or more in five straight outings.

The extra angle is the coaching matchup between BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall and Wiscy’s Gary Andersen, both defensive experts by trade.

Last season, when Andersen coached at Utah State, the Cougs and Utags played one of the best defensive wars of 2012, with BYU prevailing 6-3, one of the easiest Unders of last season.

We will be curious to see if the oddsmakers respect the reputations of these coaches and recent defense-oriented nature of the respective programs, or bend to the current reality of potent offenses each way and post this total well into the 50s.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan

NCAAF

We were in this same spot last week with Missouri, thinking that 11-point spread at home to Tennessee was a touch too thin. And, as it would happen, the Tigers stomped the Volunteers 31-3.

Books are still selling Mizzou short, having posted the Tigers as two-TD chalk in Lexington this Saturday. Kentucky isn’t as bad as past seasons, but the Wildcats have yet to pick up an SEC win and are coming off a cupcake blowout over FCS Alabama State.

Missouri is sticking with Maty Mauk under center this weekend, even though No. 1 QB James Franklin could be ready to play for the first time since suffering a shoulder injury in mid October. That’s not a bad thing considering Mauk passed for three touchdowns and tacked on 114 yards rushing in the win over Tennessee.

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Utah State Aggies (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)

This week: -13.5 at UNLV

Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton is out for the season, but backup Darell Garretson is doing just fine, especially after getting one start under his belt. In his last two games, the freshman has completed 43 of 64 passes for 514 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception. The Aggies beat New Mexico and Hawaii by a combined score of 92-20 in those two contests.

On the other side of the ball, Utah State starts seven seniors and three juniors. The lone sophomore of the experienced unit, Kyler Fackrell, earned Mountain West Defender of the Week honors for his performance against Hawaii. UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck praised his opponents' defense for disguising its formations and throwing off quarterbacks with different looks.

The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Rebels.

Team to beware: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS)

This week: +17 at East Carolina

The Golden Hurricane have scored 22 total points in their current two-game slide. Head coach Bill Blankenship apologized to fans after last week's dreadful 34-15 Homecoming loss to Texas-San Antonio. Tulsa linebacker Trent Martin is questionable after missing the last two games due to a knee injury. Despite playing in five of eight games he is still third on the team with 4.5 tackles for loss.

Tulsa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Golden Hurricane may have a hard time reversing those trends because this doesn’t look like a great matchup for them. Taking to the ground is their strength on offense but they are going up against an East Carolina defense that is giving up just 85.3 rushing yards per game.

Total team: UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (6-2 SU, 5-3 O/U)

This week: 67.5 vs. Troy

Louisiana-Lafayette is averaging 43.7 points per outing in its current six-game winning streak. It scored 35 in the second half of last week's 49-35 win over New Mexico State and running back Alonzo Harris ran for five touchdowns. Troy, Thursday's opponent, may be without stud safety Camren Hudson, who will be a game-time decision. For ULL, linebacker Chris Hill (sixth leading tackler on the team with 30, including three for loss) missed last week’s game against New Mexico State due to a concussion and is questionable.

The over is 6-0-1 in UL Lafayette's last seven home games. It is 14-2 in Troy's last 16 overall, 4-1 in its last five on the road, and 8-2 in its last 10 conference games.

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Michigan State Spartans (8-1 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

The Spartans defeated their rivals Michigan in East Lansing by a score of 29-6 Saturday. They own the nation's third-ranked defense, allowing just 11.6 points per game. Connor Cook has settled in at quarterback and, while he doesn't put up impressive numbers, he's doing enough to give them a chance to win.

The Spartans close out the season with games against Nebraska, Northwestern and Minnesota, and all of those are very winnable games. Michigan State might just have a shot at the Big Ten title.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS)

The Red Raiders have made my list before, as the most overrated team in the Top 25. After starting the season with seven straight wins, they've now dropped back-to-back games against ranked opponents (Oklahoma and Oklahoma State).

They host Kansas State this week, and the Wildcats defense has really been impressive lately. Only a fourth-quarter fumble deep in their own territory prevented them from pitching a shutout over Iowa State last week. It figures to be a tough game for the Red Raiders and a loss will surely see them drop outside the Top 25.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Mississippi Rebels (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

The Rebels have lost three games to Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M. Two of those losses came in close games, and all three of those teams are near the top of the rankings.

This week they host Arkansas and the Razorbacks have collapsed, losing six in a row. They'll face Troy the following week and if they can put together back-to-back wins, they should get back into the rankings.

Todays Best Bets

5* - [199] LSU +12.5 -110 vs Alabama

5* - [197] UCLA -1 -110 vs Arizona U

4* - [140] Minnesota U -2.5 -115 vs Penn State

4* - [170] Michigan -7 -105 vs Nebraska

3* - [194] Tennessee U +7.5 -110 vs Auburn

NCAA Football Game Picks

LSU at Alabama

The Crimson Tide look to take advantage of an LSU team that is coming off a 48-16 win over Furman and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Alabama is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Crimson Tide favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-12). Here are all of this week's games.

LA Syndicate

Top CFB Plays

Over Wyoming
Over Texas Tech
Wisconsin
North Texas
Over California
Utah State
Over Houston
Over Arizona
Over San Jose State

Chicago Syndicate

Top CFB Plays

Over Army
Over Tulsa
Indiana
Virginia Tech
Over Penn State
Wisconsin
Texas
Over Michigan
Over Navy
Texas A&M
UL Monroe
Over UCF
Over Alabama

Beat Your Bookie

[FONT=&quot]SATURDAY[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10* Play Vanderbilt +10 over Florida (NCAA TOP PLAY)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]12:00 PM EST[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Vanderbilt is 7-1 ATS when playing in the month of November[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10* Play BYU +7 over Wisconsin (NCAA TOP PLAY)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]3:30 PM EST[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]BYU is 9-0 ATS when playing as an underdog the last three seasons[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]BYU is 11-3 ATS when playing in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of the season[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10* Play Houston +10.5 over Central Florida (NCAA TOP PLAY)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]7:00 PM EST[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Houston is 7-1 ATS in all games this season[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Houston is 17-7 ATS when playing after the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] month of the season[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10* Play LSU +13 over Alabama (NCAA TOP PLAY)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]8:00 PM EST[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]LSU is 5-0 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]LSU is 17-6 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in their last game[/FONT]

Saturday Edge

Early Plays:

2.5* Units, Missouri Tigers – 14 vs Kentucky Wildcats
3.5* Units, Iowa -15 vs Purdue
2* Units, Arizona State -6.5 vs Utah
1* Unit, USC -16.5 vs California

Saturday Edge

GoSooners

1 Unit Kansas State +3 (-110)
1/2 Unit KSU/Texas Tech over 59 (-120)
1 Unit OSU/Kansas over 53.5 (-110)

Saturday Edge

Pezgordo

197 UCLA -1 (1 unit)
157/158 BYU – Wisconsin UNDER 55.5 (1 unit)

5* NCAA CONF. GAME OF THE YEAR!
Game Date/Time: 11/9/13 7:00 pm
Our Selection: Louisiana-Monroe Opponent: Arkansas St. Line: -4.5 Rating: 5*
Analysis: At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks minus the points over Arkansas State. The Warhawks are a half-game behind Sun Belt leader La-Lafayette in the Conference standings, but control their own destiny, as they will play at La-Lafayette in three weeks. This will be Monroe's last home game of the season, and they fall into two "Last Home Game" systems of mine that have records of 110-61, 82-51 and 82-48 ATS since 1980. This will be a tough task for Arkansas State, as La-Monroe had a couple of extra days to rest and prepare, as their last game was Thursday (a 49-37 win at Troy), while Arkansas St. had to play last Saturday (a 17-16 upset win at South Alabama). Those extra two days of rest are important, as teams that play in mid-week games do significantly better the next week vs. foes that are coming off a weekend game, including 59% (125-88 ATS) if our 'play-on' team is off a straight-up win. Additionally, since 1980, road underdogs off an upset win at a conference foe are a dreadful 42-78 ATS vs. conference foes off a win. And, since Nov. 2002, Sun Belt Conference underdogs of +3.5 or more points, off an upset win, are 0-18 SU and ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win. That doesn't bode well for Arkansas St. on Saturday. And neither does the fact that QB Kolton Browning has been spectacular since returning from a quad injury. Against Georgia St., he was 30-of-44, for over 300 yards, and four TDs. And last week, he completed 21-of-32 for 354 yards and five touchdowns. Look for the Sun Belt's top QB to lead the Warhawks to a blowout win. Lay the points with Louisiana Monroe.

5* NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH!
Game Date/Time: 11/9/13 8:00 pm
Our Selection: LSU Opponent: Alabama Line: +12.5 Rating: 5*
Analysis: At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Alabama. The Crimson Tide roll into this game undefeated, with an 8-0 record, after their 45-10 victory over Tennessee (as a 28-point favorite). Now, they'll look to win their 3rd straight game in this series. Last year, Alabama was out-statted by Les Miles' Tigers, who outgained the Tide 435 to 331, but Bama survived to win 21-17 as 7-point dogs. This year, the Tigers are 7-2, but each of those losses were by a field goal (to Georgia and Ole Miss). Here, LSU is catching almost two touchdowns, and it must be noted that it's been over 12 years since the last time LSU was this big of an underdog (Oct. 6, 2001 vs. Florida). Even Alabama rarely wins by double-digits vs. LSU, as it's defeated the Tigers just once by that margin in the last 11 meetings (The BCS Championship Game two seasons ago). Admittedly, Alabama's been impressive since "only" winning by 7 points at Texas A&M. But the Tide was favored by 26+ points in all but one of their last six games, so their recent foes weren't exactly 'Murderer's Row.' This is a huge step-up in class from what the Tide has faced recently (Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia St.), and 'Bama falls into a negative 24-58 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams that are stepping up in class after a string of 'Cream Puff' opponents. Even worse for Alabama: it falls into a nasty 0-25 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play against any undefeated team in the regular season with a record of 8-0 or better, if it covered by 6+ points in its last game, and is favored by 3+ points against a team which lost the previous meeting in the series, and whose win percentage is between .630 and .880. Take LSU plus the points.

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

CFB
MISSISSIPPI ST @ TEXAS A&M
Mississippi St.+pts

CFB
ILLINOIS @ INDIANA
Indiana-9

Steve Fezzick

3*CFB SHOOTOUT OVR GAME OF THE YEAR

OVER - Nevada/Colorado St.

Bonus play - West Virginia+7

Ted Holmlund
21-9 70%

CFB
Texas A & M
Alabama

Atrain Sports

Auburn -7

Minnesota -2

Missouri -14