[h=1]Vulnerable ATS faves in Week 10[/h][h=3]Where betting value lies among underdogs coming off blowout losses[/h]By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
Throughout the 2013 NFL season, we've analyzed historical trends in order to find value in the sports betting marketplace. So far, we've bet against the public, bought new coaches early in the season and used bye weeks for good teams to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. However, the main theme of this column has been to educate bettors about how recent results cause betting market overreactions that can be exploited to maximize value through contrarian betting.
One of the easiest, most effective ways to implement this strategy is being willing to back teams coming off blowout losses. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, I created a system based on this theory before the 2012 season and followed it to an 18-9 (66.7 percent) record against the spread. This system has once again been profitable this season and is pointing to a handful of games in Week 10 offering contrarian value.
In this system, I define a "blowout" as a loss of 10 or more points. While running the analysis, I noticed that teams that got blown out as underdogs performed better ATS in their following game than those blown out as favorites. Building on this, I looked at underdogs at different point-spread levels and found some interesting results. The table below summarizes the analysis.
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<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Teams coming off a loss of 10+ points as an underdog, since 2004[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Note: I've received questions regarding units won and how a system with an ATS win rate below 52.4 percent can produce positive units. Our database uses Pinnacle's closing lines, including the juice, so the results don't assume a minus-110 vig. Pinnacle offers reduced juice, which accounts for the increase in units won. All bettors without access to reduced juice lines (although it's highly recommended) should focus on ATS winning percentage and compare it to the break-even point of 52.4 percent needed to earn a profit if consistently laying minus-110 on spread bets.
Not only has this system been profitable over the course of almost 10 seasons, but it has finished only one season with a losing record (in terms of units won). The table below displays yearly ATS records.
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<!-- end inline 3 -->Why does this work?
This is a classic example of sharp bettors taking advantage of overreactions by novice or public bettors. The betting market has not only seen these teams get blown out in their most recent games, but the teams were also underdogs in those matchups, indicating the market already identified them as "bad" teams before the lopsided losses. The public, in turn, sees these bad teams losing by double digits and therefore avoids them at all costs in their following games.
Oddsmakers understand the psychology of public bettors and react by shading lines since the market, as a whole, will most likely be betting against them. This shading creates the baseline value for our system that we can exploit further by taking underdogs of six points or more. Margins of victory of three points (15.39 percent), seven points (9.55 percent) and 10 points (6.14 percent) are the only margins that occur more frequently than six (5.58 percent), explaining why we see the bump in ATS win rate at six-plus points.
[h=3]Week 10 system matches[/h]
Atlanta Falcons (+6) versus Seattle Seahawks
Despite entering the season as a trendy Super Bowl pick, Atlanta has struggled its way to a 2-6 record, including an ugly 34-10 loss to Carolina on Sunday. Only 24 percent of bettors have taken the Falcons so far this week, even though Atlanta is a home underdog for the first time in more than two years. This overreaction falls right into our contrarian betting wheelhouse, and we'll take Atlanta and the points, especially against a Seattle team that has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) at Tennessee Titans
This game is not only a match for this week's system, but it also fits the analysis used in our Week 8 NFL betting article, providing another reason to like Jacksonville. Tennessee is 2-0-1 ATS as a favorite this season but has not been greater than a 3.5-point favorite in any of those games. The Titans have been good to anyone following this column in 2013, but seeing them as an almost two-touchdown favorite reeks of overreaction. We'll jump all over the underdog value created by this inflated line, especially with 60 percent of spread bettors backing Tennessee.
Note: The Oakland Raiders also fit this system, but we chose to lay off them since the New York Giants fall into our bye-week analysis highlighted in last week's article.
Throughout the 2013 NFL season, we've analyzed historical trends in order to find value in the sports betting marketplace. So far, we've bet against the public, bought new coaches early in the season and used bye weeks for good teams to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. However, the main theme of this column has been to educate bettors about how recent results cause betting market overreactions that can be exploited to maximize value through contrarian betting.
One of the easiest, most effective ways to implement this strategy is being willing to back teams coming off blowout losses. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, I created a system based on this theory before the 2012 season and followed it to an 18-9 (66.7 percent) record against the spread. This system has once again been profitable this season and is pointing to a handful of games in Week 10 offering contrarian value.
In this system, I define a "blowout" as a loss of 10 or more points. While running the analysis, I noticed that teams that got blown out as underdogs performed better ATS in their following game than those blown out as favorites. Building on this, I looked at underdogs at different point-spread levels and found some interesting results. The table below summarizes the analysis.
<OFFER></OFFER>
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Teams coming off a loss of 10+ points as an underdog, since 2004[/h]
| Team types | ATS record | Units won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 417-411 (50.4%) | -16.45 units | -2.0% |
| Underdogs | 283-258 (52.3%) | +10.02 units | +1.9% |
| Underdogs 6+ points | 174-125 (58.2%) | +37.64 units | +12.6% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $3,764 ($100 x 37.64 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY><TFOOT>
</TFOOT>
<!-- end inline 2 -->Note: I've received questions regarding units won and how a system with an ATS win rate below 52.4 percent can produce positive units. Our database uses Pinnacle's closing lines, including the juice, so the results don't assume a minus-110 vig. Pinnacle offers reduced juice, which accounts for the increase in units won. All bettors without access to reduced juice lines (although it's highly recommended) should focus on ATS winning percentage and compare it to the break-even point of 52.4 percent needed to earn a profit if consistently laying minus-110 on spread bets.
Not only has this system been profitable over the course of almost 10 seasons, but it has finished only one season with a losing record (in terms of units won). The table below displays yearly ATS records.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->
| Season | ATS record | Units won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 11-9 (55.0%) | +1.25 units | +6.2% |
| 2012 | 18-9 (66.7%) | +7.81 units | +28.9% |
| 2011 | 22-14 (61.1%) | +6.60 units | +18.3% |
| 2010 | 16-9 (64.0%) | +6.00 units | +24.0% |
| 2009 | 27-20 (57.4%) | +5.35 units | +11.4% |
| 2008 | 21-20 (51.2%) | -0.46 units | -1.1% |
| 2007 | 16-12 (57.1%) | +3.10 units | +11.1% |
| 2006 | 14-7 (66.7%) | +6.15 units | +29.3% |
| 2005 | 12-11 (52.2%) | +0.09 units | +0.4% |
| 2004 | 17-14 (54.8%) | +1.74 units | +5.6% |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 3 -->Why does this work?
This is a classic example of sharp bettors taking advantage of overreactions by novice or public bettors. The betting market has not only seen these teams get blown out in their most recent games, but the teams were also underdogs in those matchups, indicating the market already identified them as "bad" teams before the lopsided losses. The public, in turn, sees these bad teams losing by double digits and therefore avoids them at all costs in their following games.
Oddsmakers understand the psychology of public bettors and react by shading lines since the market, as a whole, will most likely be betting against them. This shading creates the baseline value for our system that we can exploit further by taking underdogs of six points or more. Margins of victory of three points (15.39 percent), seven points (9.55 percent) and 10 points (6.14 percent) are the only margins that occur more frequently than six (5.58 percent), explaining why we see the bump in ATS win rate at six-plus points.
Atlanta Falcons (+6) versus Seattle Seahawks
Despite entering the season as a trendy Super Bowl pick, Atlanta has struggled its way to a 2-6 record, including an ugly 34-10 loss to Carolina on Sunday. Only 24 percent of bettors have taken the Falcons so far this week, even though Atlanta is a home underdog for the first time in more than two years. This overreaction falls right into our contrarian betting wheelhouse, and we'll take Atlanta and the points, especially against a Seattle team that has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) at Tennessee Titans
This game is not only a match for this week's system, but it also fits the analysis used in our Week 8 NFL betting article, providing another reason to like Jacksonville. Tennessee is 2-0-1 ATS as a favorite this season but has not been greater than a 3.5-point favorite in any of those games. The Titans have been good to anyone following this column in 2013, but seeing them as an almost two-touchdown favorite reeks of overreaction. We'll jump all over the underdog value created by this inflated line, especially with 60 percent of spread bettors backing Tennessee.
Note: The Oakland Raiders also fit this system, but we chose to lay off them since the New York Giants fall into our bye-week analysis highlighted in last week's article.
