[h=1]Midseason NFL Vegas Rankings[/h][h=3]Vegas handicappers' power ratings for all 32 NFL teams after nine weeks[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- It's time for the midseason update of the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll, with every team having played at least eight games (and those yet to have a bye week having played nine games). The Bettors' Poll is meant to be a current snapshot of the relative strength of all of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, and can be used to compare to the lines being offered on upcoming games (with adjustments made for home-field advantage).
Obviously, how teams have fared in their games to date impacts our ratings, but if you want to look at teams ranked by their win-loss records, you can just look at the more mainstream rankings, where the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs are No. 1 (we have them at No. 7). Also, the one comment I hear most often is "such-and-such team is X-X against the spread so why aren't they No. 1 in Vegas?" This year, that team would be the Dallas Cowboys at 7-2 ATS. But if you want to view teams ranked by their ATS records, you can see that in my "Opening Line" midseason column that was posted on Monday.
When our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- compared our power ratings on Monday, the Denver Broncos were our top team, with the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers tied for second and the New England Patriots in the fourth slot. The No. 5 team was the Green Bay Packers, but it's all about timing as QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone in the Monday night loss to the Chicago Bears and caused us to scramble to update our ratings.
After revisiting our numbers, the Packers have been lowered by a consensus 5 points and are now tied for 15th, coincidentally with the Philadelphia Eagles, whom they play this Sunday.
Here are all 32 NFL teams ranked by their Vegas power rating: <OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 --></OFFER>[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (2013 season)[/h]
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TFOOT>
</TFOOT><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Selvaggio on the Packers' adjustment: "Initially I'd take 7 points off their rating as of now and wouldn't be betting on or against them in the next game and would see how [Seneca] Wallace looks after a week of practice."
Sevransky on the adjustment: "Rodgers is a surgeon, one of the four true 'elite' quarterbacks in the NFL along with Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Seneca Wallace is a midtier backup. Without Rodgers, Green Bay falls from elite to midtier, despite its solid defense and strong running game. My adjustment is 4.5 points down for Rodgers' absence, although I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the markets adjust even more."
I adjusted the Packers downward just 3.5 points, so that's where the 5-point average comes in. As for the market, the Las Vegas Hotel had the Packers minus-10 versus the Eagles when it first posted Week 10 lines on Sunday afternoon (and William Hill had them minus-9.5). But as of Tuesday morning, the line is coming up at a field goal at some books and even less at others, so the oddsmakers have opted for even more than a touchdown. If you use the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll to compare to the line, it looks like anything under a field goal could be value on the Packers.
Crunching the numbers for Week 10
Here's a look at a few more games that appear to have value compared to our composite rankings:
Oakland Raiders (plus-7) at New York Giants: Our raw ratings have the Giants 3.5 points better than the Raiders, but even if you give the Giants a full field goal for home-field advantage (and most handicappers would say it's just 2.5), it doesn't rise to the level of a full touchdown.
Pick: Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals (minus-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens: Our ratings have the Bengals 5.5 points better than the Ravens in this AFC North battle, as the Bengals try to complete the changing of the guard and keep the Ravens from clawing back in the race. Even with Baltimore's home-field advantage, this looks like value at anything under a field goal.
Pick: Bengals
San Diego Chargers (plus-7) versus Denver Broncos: Even though they're our No. 1 team, the Broncos are only 6 points ahead of the Chargers in this divisional rivalry and that drops closer to a field goal with the game in San Diego.
Pick: Chargers
Dallas Cowboys (plus-7) at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans is back at home, but we have it only 2 points ahead of the Cowboys. Even if you give the Saints 4 points for home-field advantage, it doesn't get to a full TD.
Pick: Cowboys
Good luck this week (and every week) and be sure to check back on Friday for Tuley's Take with ATS picks for every Week 10 game.
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- It's time for the midseason update of the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll, with every team having played at least eight games (and those yet to have a bye week having played nine games). The Bettors' Poll is meant to be a current snapshot of the relative strength of all of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, and can be used to compare to the lines being offered on upcoming games (with adjustments made for home-field advantage).
Obviously, how teams have fared in their games to date impacts our ratings, but if you want to look at teams ranked by their win-loss records, you can just look at the more mainstream rankings, where the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs are No. 1 (we have them at No. 7). Also, the one comment I hear most often is "such-and-such team is X-X against the spread so why aren't they No. 1 in Vegas?" This year, that team would be the Dallas Cowboys at 7-2 ATS. But if you want to view teams ranked by their ATS records, you can see that in my "Opening Line" midseason column that was posted on Monday.
When our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- compared our power ratings on Monday, the Denver Broncos were our top team, with the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers tied for second and the New England Patriots in the fourth slot. The No. 5 team was the Green Bay Packers, but it's all about timing as QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone in the Monday night loss to the Chicago Bears and caused us to scramble to update our ratings.
After revisiting our numbers, the Packers have been lowered by a consensus 5 points and are now tied for 15th, coincidentally with the Philadelphia Eagles, whom they play this Sunday.
Here are all 32 NFL teams ranked by their Vegas power rating: <OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 --></OFFER>[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (2013 season)[/h]
| Rank | Team | Aug. 8 | Sept. 24 | Nov. 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| *-With Aaron Rodgers out | ||||
| 1 | Denver Broncos | 25.5 | 27 | 26 |
| T-2 | Seattle Seahawks | 25 | 26.5 | 25 |
| T-2 | San Francisco 49ers | 26 | 22.5 | 25 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | 22.5 | 23 | 23 |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 20.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 20.5 | 21.5 |
| T-8 | Indianapolis Colts | 19.5 | 20.5 | 21 |
| T-8 | Dallas Cowboys | 20.5 | 23 | 21 |
| T-8 | Carolina Panthers | 19.5 | 20 | 21 |
| T-11 | Detroit Lions | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20 |
| T-11 | San Diego Chargers | 17.5 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 20.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 |
| 14 | Tennessee Titans | 17 | 19 | 18.5 |
| T-15 | Green Bay Packers | 24 | 23 | 18* |
| T-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19.5 | 20 | 18 |
| T-17 | Houston Texans | 22.5 | 23 | 17.5 |
| T-17 | New York Giants | 21.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 |
| T-19 | Cleveland Browns | 17 | 15.5 | 17 |
| T-19 | Baltimore Ravens | 21.5 | 21.5 | 17 |
| T-19 | Washington Redskins | 21 | 18.5 | 17 |
| T-19 | New York Jets | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| T-19 | Arizona Cardinals | 15.5 | 17 | 17 |
| T-19 | Miami Dolphins | 19.5 | 21 | 17 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | 22 | 21 | 16 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 21.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | 16.5 | 16 | 15 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| 29 | St. Louis Rams | 19 | 16.5 | 13.5 |
| 30 | Minnesota Vikings | 19 | 16.5 | 13 |
| 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.5 | 17 | 11.5 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 | 10 | 7 |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TFOOT>
</TFOOT><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Selvaggio on the Packers' adjustment: "Initially I'd take 7 points off their rating as of now and wouldn't be betting on or against them in the next game and would see how [Seneca] Wallace looks after a week of practice."
Sevransky on the adjustment: "Rodgers is a surgeon, one of the four true 'elite' quarterbacks in the NFL along with Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Seneca Wallace is a midtier backup. Without Rodgers, Green Bay falls from elite to midtier, despite its solid defense and strong running game. My adjustment is 4.5 points down for Rodgers' absence, although I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the markets adjust even more."
I adjusted the Packers downward just 3.5 points, so that's where the 5-point average comes in. As for the market, the Las Vegas Hotel had the Packers minus-10 versus the Eagles when it first posted Week 10 lines on Sunday afternoon (and William Hill had them minus-9.5). But as of Tuesday morning, the line is coming up at a field goal at some books and even less at others, so the oddsmakers have opted for even more than a touchdown. If you use the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll to compare to the line, it looks like anything under a field goal could be value on the Packers.
Here's a look at a few more games that appear to have value compared to our composite rankings:
Oakland Raiders (plus-7) at New York Giants: Our raw ratings have the Giants 3.5 points better than the Raiders, but even if you give the Giants a full field goal for home-field advantage (and most handicappers would say it's just 2.5), it doesn't rise to the level of a full touchdown.
Pick: Raiders
Pick: Bengals
Pick: Chargers
Dallas Cowboys (plus-7) at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans is back at home, but we have it only 2 points ahead of the Cowboys. Even if you give the Saints 4 points for home-field advantage, it doesn't get to a full TD.
Pick: Cowboys
Good luck this week (and every week) and be sure to check back on Friday for Tuley's Take with ATS picks for every Week 10 game.
