Service Plays Tuesday 11/12/13

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Tuesday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons (-10, 49)

Second place in the Mid-American Conference's East Division will be on the line Tuesday night when the Bowling Green Falcons entertain the Ohio Bobcats. Bowling Green kept its division championship hopes alive a week ago, trouncing Miami (Ohio) 45-3 behind 252 passing yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Matt Johnson. The Bobcats saw their two-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt with a 30-3 drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bulls.

Following a pair of narrow losses to the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Toledo Rockets, Bowling Green returned to the strategy that made it a division favorite - stifling defensive pressure. The Falcons limited Miami (Ohio) to just 228 total yards and 16 first downs while forcing three turnovers - one of which BooBoo Gates returned for a touchdown. Ohio has had little trouble putting up points this season but ran into a brick wall against the formidable Bulls.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
LINE: Bowling Green enters as a 10-point favorite, with the over/under set at 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s at game-time with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 4 mph.

ABOUT OHIO (6-3, 3-2 MAC): Ohio is led by senior quarterback Tyler Tettleton, who has had a remarkable season but couldn't get anything going against Buffalo. Tettleton completed just 14 of 31 passes for 126 yards while failing to throw for a touchdown for the first time since the Bobcats' season opener. It was the same kind of story for feature back Beau Blankenship, who managed just 68 yards on 20 carries with a longest rush of nine yards.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (6-3, 4-1 MAC): Johnson needed a strong effort against the winless RedHawks after being held without a scoring pass in each of his previous two games. The sophomore QB completed 20 of 26 passes while overcoming his first interception since a 48-7 triumph over Murray State back on Sept. 21. Second-year running back Travis Greene finished with 14 carries for 112 yards against Miami (Ohio), moving him past the 1,000 mark for the season.

TRENDS:

* Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Under is 8-2-1 in Ohio's last 11 games.
* The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets (-3.5, 54)

The Buffalo Bulls put their unbeaten conference record on the line Tuesday night as they visit the Toledo Rockets in a matchup between Mid-American Conference foes. Buffalo improved its MAC East mark to 5-0 while extending its overall winning streak to seven games with a 30-3 drubbing of the Ohio Bobcats. The Rockets kept alive their slim hopes of a West title, trouncing Eastern Michigan 55-16 for its their fourth consecutive victory.

In addition to a pair of win streaks being at stake, Tuesday's showdown pits the stout Buffalo defense against a formidable Toledo offense. The Bulls have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball since being torched for 110 points in season-opening losses to Ohio State and Baylor, surrendering just 78 points in seven games since. They'll face a stiff test from the Rockets, who have erupted for a whopping 175 points over their last four outings.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: Toledo is listed as a 3 1/2-point favorite, with the over/under set at 54.
WEATHER: The skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the high-20s and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 7 mph.

ABOUT BUFFALO (7-2, 5-0 MAC): Bulls quarterback Joe Licata isn't a big yardage guy, but has been one of the more consistent signal callers in the division. The sophomore completed 13-of-22 passes for 169 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Ohio, and has thrown for at least one score in each of his starts this season. Branden Oliver has been the offensive star of the team, rushing for 928 yards and nine touchdowns over his past five games.

ABOUT TOLEDO (6-3, 4-1 MAC): As good as senior quarterback Terrance Owens has been this year, he wasn't accumulating many yards - until last week, that is. Owens broke out for 375 yards on 18-of-24 passing while racking up three touchdowns for the second consecutive week. Running back David Fluellen (1,067 yards, 10 touchdowns) missed last week's game against Eastern Michigan with a leg injury and is questionable for this week's game.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Rockets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.
* Under is 12-3 in Toledo's last 15 games.
* Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Michigan State vs. Kentucky: What bettors need to know

Michigan State Spartans vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-3)

Julius Randle and the latest dream team at Kentucky got off to a strong start over the first weekend. Things get much tougher on Tuesday, when the top-ranked Wildcats host No. 2 Michigan State in the State Farm Champions Classic at Chicago. Randle posted a double-double in each of his first two games but will be going up against a tough, experienced front line in Adreian Payne and the Spartans.

Michigan State sophomore guard Gary Harris is one of the few non-freshmen in the country getting attention as a lottery pick in the 2014 NBA draft and did nothing to hurt that stock with 20 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in the Spartans’ season-opening win over McNeese State. Michigan State blew past that smaller team and will take on a Wildcats squad much bigger and just as fast. Even the starting backcourt for Kentucky - James Young and Aaron and Andrew Harrison - all stand 6-6 and run the floor.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (1-0): Harris and Payne expect to get more help this season from swingman Branden Dawson, who is fully healthy after battling back from knee surgery last season. The junior joined Payne (10 and 10) and Harris with a double-double against McNeese State, marking the first time the Spartans had three players record double-doubles in the same game since 1988. Head coach Tom Izzo came away from the opening win with positive thoughts on his team but an eye toward improving. “One thing this team does do for you, is it’s been a fun team to be around so far,” Izzo said. “Let’s face it, it’s going to get a lot, lot, lot, lot, lot tougher, and I don’t just mean Tuesday, but from here on out.”

ABOUT KENTUCKY (2-0): The biggest question for John Calipari and the Wildcats coaching staff was how fast they could get all of their talented freshmen on the same page and working the offense. A pair of easy wins over the weekend showed that Randle, at least, had made a smooth transition to the college game with 22.5 points and 14.5 rebounds against Northern Kentucky and UNC-Asheville, and he made a habit of getting to the free throw line with a total of 27 attempts. Calipari is looking forward to the test from Michigan State. “For us, it’s just a bar of where we are right now,” he said. “We’ve got a long way to go.”

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten.
* Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Southeastern.
* Under is 5-0 in Spartans last five overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last five overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Kentucky leads the all-time series 12-10 but the schools have not met since Michigan State took a 94-88 double-overtime thriller in the 2005 Elite Eight.

2. Harris, Payne and Randle are three of the 15 players named to the preseason watch list for the Oscar Robertson Trophy, given annually to the most outstanding player in the country.

3. The Spartans handed out 32 assists on 42 made field goals in their opener, led by Travis Trice’s eight.

Duke vs. Kansas: What bettors need to know

Duke Blue Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks (+5)

Freshmen phenoms Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins square off Tuesday when No. 4 Duke meets sixth-ranked Kansas at the United Center in Chicago in the Champions Classic. Duke has won four of the last five meetings in the series, and Parker made an immediate impact with 22 points in the Blue Devils’ 111-77 rout of Davidson in Friday’s season opener. “First game in college -- are you kidding me?” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said of Parker. “That was a terrific performance.”

Wiggins was equally impressive with a team-high 16 points in Friday’s 80-63 victory over Louisiana-Monroe, helping the young Jayhawks win their 41st straight home opener. Kansas lost all five starters from last season, but the Jayhawks are favored to make another title run behind Wiggins and fellow freshmen Wayne Selden Jr. and Joel Embiid. The key player in Tuesday’s matchup could be Kansas 6-foot-8 sophomore forward Perry Ellis, who could have plenty of opportunities against the smaller Blue Devils.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT DUKE (1-0): Parker’s debut overshadowed the first game in a Blue Devils uniform for Mississippi State transfer Rodney Hood, who had 22 points on 9-of-10 shooting along with a game-high nine rebounds. The Blue Devils averaged 92 points in two exhibition wins and maintained its up-tempo pace against Davidson, when they shot 70.4 percent from the field and made 13 3-pointers. Duke had four players score 20 or more in the opener, including guards Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook, who ranked second in the ACC in assists last season.

ABOUT KANSAS (1-0): The Jayhawks started three freshmen in Wiggins, Selden and Frank Mason in the opener, but junior Naadir Tharpe will replace Mason at point guard after serving a one-game suspension for playing in an unauthorized summer league game. “We’re ridiculously young, and everything’s a new experience for us,” said Self, whose team boasts eight newcomers. Memphis transfer Tarik Black, the Jayhawks’ only senior starter, had eight points and seven rebounds in the opener.

TRENDS:

* Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big 12.
* Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Jayhawks last five vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last seven overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Duke has made at least one 3-pointer in 838 consecutive games, the fourth-longest streak in the nation.

2. Kansas is seeking its first win in the Champions Classic after losing to Kentucky in 2011 and Michigan State last year.

3. Duke holds a 7-2 edge in the all-time series against the Jayhawks.

Florida at Wisconsin: What bettors need to know

Florida Gators at Wisconsin Badgers (-6)

Florida coach Billy Donovan is not feeling nearly as positive about his team as the pollsters, who have the Gators ranked No. 10. Donovan’s team will get a chance to prove its coach wrong on Tuesday, when Florida visits No. 19 Wisconsin. The Gators struggled against Northern Florida over the weekend, drawing criticism from their coach for their play on both ends of the floor.

The Badgers didn’t exactly blow out their first opponent, either, but knocked down 11 3-pointers in an 86-75 triumph over St. John’s while putting five players in double figures. That sort of balance would be a welcome development for Florida, which got 28 points from Casey Prather but just two from senior center Patric Young in the 77-69 win. “Sometimes we’re just lost out there. We are light years away from even being a remotely good defensive team right now and light years away from even being a ranked team,” Donovan told reporters.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2

ABOUT FLORIDA (1-0): The Gators got 15 points from freshman point guard Kasey Hill and 19 from Michael Frazier but did not have anyone else record more than four points against Northern Florida. Most shockingly for a Donovan-coached team, Florida struggled to 2-of-10 from 3-point range, had trouble defending the 3-pointer and was outrebounded. “My expectations are based on what our team looks like, what they’re capable of and whether they’re playing at the level you expect them to,” Donovan said. “I thought there were times we had guys not playing up to their standards.”

ABOUT WISCONSIN (1-0): The Badgers are known for their lock-down defense and slow pace under coach Bo Ryan but looked like a more open squad on both ends in their opener. Josh Gasser, who missed last season with a torn ACL, went 3-of-5 from beyond the arc and finished with 19 points, drawing praise from his coach. “He brings a lot to the arena,” Ryan said. “His nature and basketball IQ affects other people around him.”

TRENDS:

* Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Badgers last seven home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Gators last five vs. Big Ten.

TIP-INS:

1. Florida will again be without G Scottie Wilbekin, who is suspended for the first five games, and G Dorian Finney-Smith, who was suspended two games.

2. Wisconsin G Ben Brust matched Gasser with three 3-pointers and led the team with 203 last season.

3. The Gators saved themselves by going 27-for-32 from the free throw line in the opener.

Trends - No. 1 Kentucky at No. 2 Michigan St

ATS Trends
Kentucky

Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Michigan St

Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern.
Spartans are 10-23-2 ATS in their last 35 Tuesday games.
Spartans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
Spartans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

OU Trends
Kentucky

Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 7-2-1 in Wildcats last 10 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
Under is 16-5-1 in Wildcats last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 15-5-3 in Wildcats last 23 Tuesday games.
Under is 19-7-1 in Wildcats last 27 road games.
Under is 19-7-1 in Wildcats last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Michigan St

Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 vs. Southeastern.
Under is 13-3 in Spartans last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games.
Under is 29-13 in Spartans last 42 Tuesday games.

NBA betting: Three ATS slam dunks for bettors

With the NBA season now two weeks old, it has been an interesting start as we have seen some good teams play poorly and some bad teams play very well. But as the league moves into its third week let's take a look at who some of the best teams have been when it comes to covering the spread.

Phoenix Suns (6-0-1 ATS)

No one in the NBA has had a hotter start to the season than the Phoenix Suns. The Suns lead the Pacific Division with a 5-2 SU record and are the only team in the NBA without a loss ATS. The Suns have been successful this season by being stingy on defense and efficient on offense. At the defensive end of the court the Suns are ranked in the top 10 in ppg, field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage. On offense the Suns are scoring 100.3 ppg which puts them 13th in the league and are shooting at a clip of 46.5 percent from the floor, which ranks ninth. The Suns next four opponents have a combined record of 10-14 ATS.

Indiana Pacers (5-2 ATS)

If not for a meaningless last second dunk by the Raptors Terrance Ross when the Pacers beat the Toronto 91-84 last Saturday, the Pacers would have covered and be 6-1 ATS to start the season. Indy is off to its hottest start in franchise history by going 7-0 SU and are the NBA's only remaining undefeated team. The Pacers are led by Paul George, who does everything. He is scoring 25.1 points per game, shooting almost 47 percent from the field to go along with 7.9 rebounds, 4 assists and 1.7 steals per game. But the Pacers do most of their damage at the defensive end of the court, where they rank first in points allowed per game, first in field goal percentage, sixth in rebounds and ninth in 3-point percentage. The Pacers next four opponents have a combined 7-15 record ATS.

Minnesota Timberwolves (5-2)

The Timberwolves have had a strong start to the season going 5-2 straight up and have covered the spread in five of their last six games. The Wolves have been able to do this because of their work on the offensive glass. They are currently seventh in the league in offensive rebounding and that is creating a lot of second chance opportunities for the Wolves who are averaging a league high 88.4 field goal attempts per game. Kevin Love seems to have regained his old form after an injury riddled 2012-13 campaign. Love is second in the league in ppg with 26.9 and leads the league in rpg with 14.4. The Wolves next four opponents have a combined 12-14 record ATS.


**All stats and numbers prior to Monday's action.

NHL betting: Stamkos injury a big blow to Lightning odds

The Tampa Bay Lightning have confirmed that sniper Steven Stamkos has suffered a broken right leg (tibia) and is out indefinitely.

Stamkos suffered the injury after colliding awkwardly with his own goal post in Monday's 3-0 loss to the Boston Bruins.

The superstar's absence will have a noticeable impact on Tampa Bay's odds and futures and it could impact Canada's hopes for a Gold Medal at Sochi.

"If it's ruled he is out for long period of time, odds on Tampa Bay to win the Cup will go from 20/1 to 30/1 at least and from 8/1 to 12/1 to win East," states Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag.

"He is Tampa Bay's best player, so their odds are going to take a hit for sure," Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag told Covers. "As for Team Canada the talent pool is pretty deep, so the effect of his injury won't be felt nearly as much as it does with the Lightning."

In terms of value to the moneyline, Stamkos is near the top of the list of NHL stars.

"On average, I would say hes worth about 20 cents on a 20 cent progressive moneyline," says Aron Black of Bet365. "But that again depends who they play, so it could be more, could be less dependent on the team and if at home or on the road."

Maddux Basketball
Lsu +5
Charleston -5.5
Kentucky +3
Illinois +5
Ohio St -17

J Clifton
TOLEDO - 3 1/2
OHIO + 10
TOLEDO UNDER 54
OHIO UNDER 49 1/2

NBA:
LAKERS +3
DALLAS -5
DETROIT +9

NCAAB:
MICHIGAN STATE -3
KANSAS +5
FLORIDA +6
LSU +5

NBA

Hot teams
-- Heat won three of last four games, are 1-3 as home favorites.
-- Mavericks are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 9-12-19 points.
-- Golden State is only 4-3, but they're 2-0 as home favorites, winning by 31-11 points.

Cold teams
-- Bucks are 2-3 this season, but covered both games as road dogs.
-- Washington is 1-3 on road, losing by 11-10-1 points- they're 2-1 as a road underdog.
-- Pistons lost their last three games by 8-9-6 games.
-- Lakers lost five of their last seven games. Pelicans are 1-2 on road; underdogs won all three games.

Series records
-- Bucks lost six in row vs Miami, all by 11+ points.
-- Dallas won last six games vs Washington, but Wizards covered five of last seven series games.
-- Golden State won last four games with Detroit; underdogs covered last five series games.
-- Lakers lost by 11 in New Orleans Friday, its first loss to Pelicans in last ten meetings; New Orleans lost last five games at the Lakers.

Totals
-- Five of seven Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of six Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total; four of last five Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last three New Orleans games stayed under the total.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Kings won five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers won six of their last seven games.
-- Washington won its last four home games, allowing seven goals.
-- Colorado won eight of its last nine games.
-- Lightning won four of last five games, but star Stamkos broke his leg yesterday.
-- Ottawa won its last three games, allowing four goals.
-- Winnipeg won three of its last four games.
-- Ducks won five in row and eight of their last nine games.
-- Coyotes/Blues both won six of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Buffalo lost six of its last seven games.
-- Islanders lost last four games, by combined score of 16-6. Nashville lost its last two games, both by 5-0 scores.
-- Devils lost nine of their eleven road games.
-- Columbus lost five of its last six games.
-- Hurricames lost six of their last eight games.
-- Canadiens lost four of their last five games.
-- Flyers lost four of their last six games.
-- Detroit lost its last three games, the last two in OT.
-- Florida lost its last nine games, scoring 17 goals.
-- San Jose lost its last five games, three in SO, one in OT. Calgary lost five of its last six games.

Totals
-- Three of last four Los Angeles games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Nashville games.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Ranger-Devil games.
-- Five of last seven Columbus games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Carolina games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Tampa Bay games.
-- Three of last four Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Detroit-Winnipeg games went over.
-- Three of last four Florida-Anaheim games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Calgary games went over the total.

Series records
-- Kings lost their last three visits to Buffalo, outscored 13-3.
-- Islanders lost last three games with Nashville by combined score of 10-3.
-- Rangers won three of their last four games with New Jersey.
-- Blue Jackets lost their last four games with Washington.
-- Home side won five of last six Colorado-Carolina games.
-- Canadiens won seven of last nine games with Tampa Bay.
-- Flyers lost nine of last eleven visits to Ottawa.
-- Red Wings lost three of last four games with Winnipeg.
-- Ducks won last three games with Florida, outscoring them 10-3.
-- Blues won six of their last seven games with Phoenix.
-- Sharks won eight of their last eleven games with Calgary.

bookiemonsters
174-125-3 run
9-1 last 10 plays
POD NHL Kings over 5

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Today's NBA Picks

New Orleans at LA Lakers

The Lakers look to take advantage of a New Orleans team that is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games. LA is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

New Jersey at NY Rangers

The Devils are coming off a 5-0 win over Nashville and look to take advantage of a Rangers team that is 1-7 in its last 8 games when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. New Jersey is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+145). Here are all of today's picks.

NCAA Football Game Picks

Ohio at Bowling Green

The Bobcats look to bounce back from their 30-3 loss to Buffalo last week and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following a defeat of more than 20 points. Ohio is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+10). Here are all of today's games.

NCAA Basketball Picks

Duke vs. Kansas

The Blue Devils are coming off a 111-77 win over Davidson and face a Jayhawk team that is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game. Kansas is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Jayhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+5) . Here are all of today's games.