Service Plays Sunday 11/17/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Kansas City at Denver

The Chiefs bring their 4-0 road record to Mile High today and look to take advantage of a Denver team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. Kansas City is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

NFL line watch: Patience required for Chicago backers
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

Steelers' fans should consider jumping on their team right away. This line opened at +3, quickly dropped to 2.5, with 1.5's and 1's now starting to predominate.

The Lions would hold on for a 21-19 win in Chicago last week while the Steelers would bounce back from back-to-back losses to beat the Bills 23-10.

As brutally as Pittsburgh started the season, at 3-6 entering Week 11, it still mathematically has a shot at catching the division leading Bengals who are 6-4. A cold day at Heinz Field in mid-November is just what the doctor ordered for Pittsburgh to continue its winning ways.

Expect bettors to hit the undervalued home side throughout the week and for this number to inch closer and closer to the "pick em" range.

Spread to wait on

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-3)

Bears' backers be warned! I'd recommend waiting a little closer to kickoff before jumping on your team this week.

This lined opened at -3 and as of printing, I do in fact see a couple of 2.5's on the board (Pinnacle, 5Dimes), and I suspect that we'll start to see more and more as the week goes on.

Chicago coach Mark Trestman has said that QB Jay Cutler suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week's 21-19 loss to the Lions and has been ruled out vs. Baltimore. Josh McCown will now get the start for 'Da Bears under center this week.

The defending champs have looked brilliant at times this season and pretty pedestrian in others, but their 20-17 win over rival Cincinnati has them once again firmly in the mix for the division title this year. Cutler's injury will force bettors hands into backing the visitors this week.

Total to watch

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get down on this one immediately.

This line opened at 46, and while for the most part that is still the predominating number as of printing, there are now a few 45.5's on the board as well. I think it could drop even lower.

Over the Vikes nine games this year, the total is 7-2; 5-0 at home but just 2-2 on the road. The Seahawks O/U to date is 5-5, dead even at 2-2 at home and 3-3 away from friendly confines.

A wet, blustery week leading up to kickoff in Seattle seems like conducive conditions for each club putting an added emphasis on running and protecting the ball in this game.

Report: Bowe will start for Chiefs despite arrest

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe was cited for driving 48 in a 35 mph zone and possession of marijuana during a traffic stop late Sunday.

The Kansas City Star first reported details of the arrest and ESPN.com reported later Wednesday a Chiefs team source said Bowe will definitely play on Sunday.

The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point underdogs for Sunday night's game at Denver, but a few books were sitting as low as 8 by early Wednesday afternoon.

Bowe was driving a 2011 Audi A8 with two passengers. All three were removed from the vehicle while a K-9 search was conducted, alerting officers to "a black bag holding Bowe's wallet and two containers of what the officer suspected to be marijuana" the Star reported. One container held 3.8 grams of marijuana and the other 6.6 grams, according to the report.

Bowe has 33 receptions, top among the team's receivers but second to running back Jamaal Charles (47), for 369 yards and two touchdowns for the 9-0 Chiefs in 2013.

He was suspended four games in 2009 for violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancing drugs.

Under the terms of the personal conduct policy, Bowe could be subject to fine and discipline. Players pleading guilty or convicted to possession of marijuana have been suspended one game in the past.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

The New Orleans Saints may be the one NFL team nobody wants to play right now - which is very, very bad news for the San Francisco 49ers. And if the Saints continue making the Superdome the hardest place in the league to play, the 3.5-point spread against the Niners could look pretty modest.

New Orleans comes into this one favored by a little more than a field goal, which is an odd line considering how dominant it has been at home. The Saints have yet to lose in Louisiana and have outscored their last four opponents by a combined 95 points. That's an average of nearly 24 per win to the math-deficient.

Drew Brees is channeling his record-breaking 2011 season, spreading the ball around and making it next to impossible to know where teams should focus their efforts in the secondary. The Saints are a solid 6-3-0 against the spread - bad news for a San Francisco unit that managed just nine points at home against Carolina over the weekend.

Colin Kaepernick has looked ordinary in his second season as the starting quarterback and despite the imminent return of top target Michael Crabtree, there simply isn't enough in the way of secondary options to make much of a difference. Factor in the Saints' new-found commitment to pass defense where the Saints have surrendered the third-fewest passing yards in the league.

Working in San Francisco's favor: A 6-3-0 mark ATS, a defense ranked eighth against the pass and 11th against the run and a rush attack that has compiled the most touchdowns (15) and the fifth-most yards (1,329). If the 49ers can dominate on the ground - and that means in an Army/Auburn/New Mexico kind of way - they may make a game of it.

NFL

Never, ever underestimate an angry young team. The Indianapolis Colts fit the bill following last week's embarrassing home rout at the hands of the St. Louis Rams - and with Chuck Pagano vowing to have his players much better prepared this time around, it could be a long Thursday night for the Tennessee Titans.

The Colts are giving away less than a field goal, which will turn out to be a gross miscalculation if Andrew Luck bounces back as expected. A slow start cost him against the Rams, forcing him to revert to an all-pass strategy for the entire second half of the 38-8 drubbing. Luck has yet to lose consecutive games in his NFL career - and he isn't about to start against a second straight mediocre opponent.

The Titans have an impressive defense, but putting points could prove difficult with quarterback Jake Locker out for the season with a right foot injury. Veteran retread Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start in his place, which should worry Tennessee fans who watched him complete fewer than 57 percent of his passes in relief of an injured Locker earlier in the season.

Tennessee is 1-3 with Fitzpatrick at the helm in 2013. Barring another brutal effort from the Colts, you can make it 1-4.

Eagles defense making them a better bet
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Philadelphia Eagles' defense got off to a rocky start this season.

In the first four games, defensive coordinator Bill Davis' unit gave up 34.5 points per game, allowed opponents to convert third downs at a 44.2 percent clip, allowed opponents to convert 58.8 percent of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns and gave up nine touchdown passes.

Davis asked everyone to trust him. Said his defense would get better the more it played together. And he was right.

Over the last six games, the Eagles' defense has been a big reason the team finds itself tied for first place in the NFC East at 5-5 - and are 4-2 against the spread over the last six - heading into Sunday's important division battle against the Washington Redskins.

In the last six games, four of which the Eagles have won, the Eagles have allowed just 17.7 points per game. Their third-down efficiency rate has improved to 38.1 percent and their red-zone percentage has dropped to 43.7 percent. And oh, yeah. They've only given up six touchdown passes in the last six games, just two in the last four games.

The man who has been a major part of this turnaround is linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who leads the defense in tackles and is the unit's leader.
"DeMeco is the leader of our defense and he's having an outstanding Pro Bowl year," Davis said. "He quarterbacks the defense - we give him a lot of leeway. He can get us in and out of defenses. Gets us in the best defense possible.

"He's been a force. Whether it's crossing routes he's knocking out or his inside run game that he's tackling. He's playing at a high level."

When the Eagles acquired Ryans in a trade with Houston last year, the perception was that he was a better fit for a 4-3 defense, which the Eagles played last season, than the 3-4 the Texans had switched to in 2011.

When Chip Kelly was hired as head coach in January and hired Davis as his defensive coordinator and he installed a 3-4 scheme, many wondered how Ryans would fit in. Particularly since he's making more than $6 million this season.

But he is playing every bit as well this season as he was before he ruptured his Achilles tendon back in 2010.

"I was coming off an injury (in 2011)," Ryans said. "I knew I had some work to put in to get back to where I wanted to be. But I never had a doubt in my mind that I couldn't get back to this level. This is the level I was playing at (before the injury)."

NFL Betting Week 11 preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 11’s NFL action.

All odds current as of noon ET, Nov. 14

Everybody loves a big payout. That’s why billions of people spend billions of dollars every year on lottery tickets and that’s exactly why football bettors can’t get enough of moneyline upsets.

Right now, outright underdog bettors are frothing at the mouth over the Week 11 odds board. There were eight games seeing pointspreads of a field goal or less at Sports Interaction at noon Thursday, including four home underdogs.

For what it’s worth, outright underdogs are winning games at a 31 percent clip this season and home underdogs have won 39 percent of their games. However, home underdogs are covering the spread at almost a 55-percent clip.

Odds on the move

Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone injury combined with a rebounding New York Giants has resulted in the biggest line move of the week. The Giants opened as 6.5-point favorites at Sports Interaction after reeling off three straight wins, but have dropped to 4.5-point faves at home to Green Bay.

As New England braces for a battle with the surging Carolina Panthers, early bettors can’t get enough of the over. This total opened at 44 points and is now up to 46. New England put 55 points on the board last week and with this game being in a primetime spot, the total may continue to rise.

As mentioned, the Broncos are holding as 8-point favorites – for now. However, with the Broncos playing under the total for the first time all season last week, we’ve seen Week 11’s total drop from 51 to 49.

Week 11’s most popular bets

Sports Interaction bettors are all over the Colts to bounce back after last week’s dud. About 91 percent of our action is on Indianapolis as it travels to Tennessee for Thursday Night Football.

The most popular bet on the board is the Detroit Lions (-2.5) at the Pittsburgh Steelers with 93 percent of bets coming in on the road team.

And, if you were wondering, the Kansas City Chiefs are seeing 75 percent of our action as 8-point underdogs heading into Denver.

NFL mid-week line moves: Sharps like Under in Denver

Week 11’s odds are on the move with action forcing sportsbooks to adjust their numbers before the weekend. We talk to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag about the biggest mid-week line moves and where those odds could end up come Sunday:

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

Most wagering outlets opened with the Saints as fieldgoal faves at home for this clash of NFC giants. Bettors are backing the home team, who are coming off a spectacular performance on the national stage last Sunday night.

"Literally all the early money was on the Saints, forcing us to to to Saints -3 (-120) and eventually getting off that key number of 3 and going to 3.5 flat," says Stewart. "I doubt we'll go much higher than 3.5 and if anything, we might go -3.5 (-115) later this week, but again at this point we're fine with our 3.5 flat number.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Open: 51, Move: 49.5

Bettors have loved betting the Over in Broncos' games this season, but this week we have seen a change in direction. Early action was on the Under, but Stewart stated that since the public hasn't gotten involved yet, fully expects them to come in and take the Over like they have for each game this season.

"We opened the Chiefs-Broncos total 51, by far the lowest total we've offered on at Bronco game since Week 3," Stewart said. "But our opening total didn't last long as we saw sharp action bet us under that number, and we moved aggressively off that sharp bet and went straight to 50, eventually going to 49.5 and that's the number we've been dealing since Tuesday.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants - Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Even with the Packers starting a third-string QB, it hasn't been a deterrent to Packer backers. Money has come in on the Pack since that opening number forcing a move, and books are starting to see New York money trickle in.

"We opened the Giants -7 versus the Packers, and we thought the Giants would attract the money in this game," Stewart told Covers. "We were wrong. Most of the initial action was on the Packers +7, forcing us to go to Packers +7 (-115) / Giants -7 (-105). With more money coming in on the Packers at that number, we moved off the key number of 7 and went to Giants -6.5 flat. But even at that number we're seeing more and more action come in on the dog so we further adjusted off the 6.5 and made the Packers +6.5 (-115) / Giants -6.5 (-105)."

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are the four biggest betting mismatches for Week 11:

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 43.5)

Atlanta's decrepit running game vs. Tampa Bay's stout defensive line

The Falcons have said they'd like to see marquee free-agent acquisition Steven Jackson get more work in the coming weeks. They won't be doing Jackson any favors this week as he goes head-to-head with one of the league's most formidable run defenses. Atlanta comes into the NFC South matchup with the fewest rushing yards in the league (579) and just three touchdowns on the ground. Part of the problem is that Jackson has missed most of the season due to injury, and the Falcons have spent so much time trailing that Matt Ryan has been forced to air it out more than he or his coaches would like.

Featuring Jackson prominently in Week 11 could be a major mistake if the Buccaneers' defense continues to play at a high level. Despite having just one win past the halfway mark of the season, Tampa Bay is allowing the fifth-fewest yards on the ground in the NFL while surrendering only four rushing touchdowns. The Falcons managed a crowd-pleasing 18 rushing yards on 18 carries in their Week 7 matchup in Atlanta - and Jackson or no Jackson this time around, Sunday's result should be similar.

Kansas City Broncos at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 49)

Kansas City's pass rush vs. Peyton Manning's wonky ankle(s)

Rare is the week when the Broncos aren't one half of the biggest totals of the week - but then, this marks the Broncos' first of two meetings with a Chiefs defense that has humiliated opponents en route to the only unbeaten record in the league through 10 weeks. Manning injured both ankles a few weeks back, then aggravated his right ankle sprain in last week's victory over San Diego. He'll be good to go for Sunday despite being limited in practice this week, and should fare better than other Kansas City foes thanks to his quick instincts and impressive receiving corps.

And yet, Manning hasn't had to contend with such a voracious pass rush than the one employed by the Chiefs. Linebackers Justin Houston (11 sacks) and Tamba Hali (nine) have laid waste to opposing quarterbacks, guiding a Kansas City defense that is allowing a paltry 11.3 points per game while ranking first in the NFL in turnover differential at plus-15. Manning is the best a picking apart opposing secondaries, but he and his ankles could be in serious trouble against a blitz-happy Kansas City attack.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 53)

Washington's Griffin-to-Garcon connection vs. Philadelphia's battered secondary

Here is the biggest total of the week, and with good reason - both teams possess dynamic offensive attacks and anemic pass defenses. A Chip Kelly-run offense facing the Redskins' overwhelmed secondary would normally be favored by more than 3 1/2 points, but the Eagles' benefit on offense is negated by their ineptitude on the other side of that ball. And that trouble area will be put to the test Sunday against a vastly improving Washington pass game highlighted by quarterback Robert Griffin III and wideout Pierre Garcon.

RGIII has spread the ball around in his second season, but Garcon remains his favorite target. After missing most of last season with a nagging foot injury, Garcon has remained healthy in 2013 and has racked up the third most targets in the NFL as a result. He has been particularly explosive the past two weeks, racking up 14 catches for 291 yards and a touchdown. With nobody in the Philadelphia secondary capable of matching up with him either over the middle or down the sideline, Garcon should be in for another 100-yard day.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)

Minnesota's starting quarterback vs. Seattle's home-field advantage

No team in the league enjoys more of an edge in its own stadium than the Seahawks, who have turned CenturyLink Field into a house of horrors for opposing offenses. Seattle has outscored opponents by more than 60 points in its four home wins - and while Tampa Bay nearly pulled off a major upset two weeks ago, the fact that it didn't - after leading 21-0 with 2:16 remaining in the first half - speaks to how dominant the Seahawks can be when they pull it altogether. None of that bodes well for whichever poor soul stand under center for Minnesota on Sunday.

That the starter remains unnamed may be a problem in itself - no team likes going into such a pivotal game without having a sense of who will be throwing the passes. But whether it's Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman or the injured Christian Ponder, the lucky winner will be up against a Seattle defense surrendering fewer than 16 points per game while allowing the third-fewest yards in the NFL. Add in the fact that opposing quarterbacks are averaging just over 175 yards in Seattle so far in 2013, and things aren't looking good for Minnesota's mystery QB.

Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at Toronto

The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Hamilton is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Lead pipe locks

mike greenberg
saints and bengals

mike golic:
Chiefs and browns

Football Jesus Podcast Pick : Patriots Monday night

Scott Kellen Sixth Sense Sports

2nd Round Golden Nugget Contest

Scott Kellen (SixthSenseSports)
1) Bills -1
2) Browns-Bengals under 42
3) Buccaneers +1.5
4) Chargers -1.5
5) Redskins +4.5
6) Redskins-Eagles over 53
7) Patriots-Panthers under 46 BEST BET

Inside the Stats:

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings…

As The Noose Tightens

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race. College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tip off new campaigns. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten on out are 99-34-1 SU and 57-67-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Ohio State this week.

Pair them up against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season and watch them immediately play down to the level of the opposition as they dip to 6-21 ATS. Bring these same guys in off a win of 20 or more points and they have a difficult time getting their head through the door, going just 3-19 ATS.

Both the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes look to meet their financial maker this week.

Down The Stretch

Its stretch-run time in college football and with it a list of teams that have been either moneymakers or money breakers at this stage of the season.

From my powerful database, here is how various teams have fared of late from Game Ten out during the regular season heading in to this year. As usual, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) with a minimum five occurrences.

Best Dogs: Arizona 11-1, Boston College 7-1, Memphis 7-1, San Jose State 6-0, Virginia Tech 6-1 and West Virginia 9-1.

Worst Dogs: Air Force 0-8, Michigan 0-5-1, Middle Tennessee State 1-9, Oklahoma State 1-10-1 and Texas Tech 1-5.

Best Favorites: Arkansas 7-0, Arkansas State 5-0, Baylor 5-0, Kansas 6-1, Middle Tennessee State 9-1, Oregon State 5-1, Troy 7-0 and UCLA 5-1.

Worst Favorites: Arizona 1-11, Boise State 0-8, Florida State 1-6, Navy 0-5, Louisville 1-5, Oklahoma 1-5, UAB 1-5 and Utah 0-5.

Note: see our ‘Stat Of The Week’ below for the crème de la crème of this study.

Pennzoil Plays

Fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games has proven to be a long-term winning investment.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 17-19 ATS overall this season, including 12-13 in CFB and 5-6 in the NFL.

According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Central Michigan, Colorado, Kent State and West Virginia on the college gridiron, along with Atlanta in the NFL.

Overwhelming

As we alluded to here last week, our NFL Totals Tipsheet reports OVER players have been taking down the cash in non-conference games this season.

After yet another unassailable 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 35-11 OVER this season, including a bookie busting 11-0 the last three weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS look to be: Lions vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Jaguars and Patriots vs. Panthers.

Stat Of The Week

The underdog in Arizona Wildcats football games is 22-2 ATS from Game Ten out during the regular season.

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Arizona at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/17 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona -8 (-110) at Bovada

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally won a game last week. Congratulations. They ended up in a shootout against Tennessee, scoring a season-high 29 points. Sometimes it takes just one game to start to believe that you can score, so I expect that the Jags don't get to 29 again here, but score more than the 11.8 points per game they were averaging before last week. The bigger problem for the Jags remains their defense which has allowed 32.3 points per game and is showing little signs of improvement. Only once this season have they held an opponent to under 24 points (and that was offensively challenged Oakland). Arizona is a much improved team over a year ago. Over the last eight weeks they are 5-3 with the losses coming to San Francisco, New Orleans and Seattle - nothing to cry about there. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat. The offense, which had been problematic, has suddenly found its way as the Cardinals have scored 20 points or more in five straight games. Last year they scored 20+ just once in their final 12 games so this team is far advanced offensively over a year ago. The Cards have now covered six of their last seven following an ATS loss. While Jacksonville may have that satisfied feeling here, as they are 1-7-1 ATS off a win in their previous game. And home field has provided no advantage for them as they are just 2-9 ATS at home dating back to last season. Lay the points with Arizona.

CFL
Long Sheet

Second Round

Sunday, November 17

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HAMILTON (11 - 8) at TORONTO (11 - 7) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
HAMILTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-4 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-5 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SASKATCHEWAN (12 - 7) at CALGARY (14 - 4) - 11/17/2013, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 113-74 ATS (+31.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 100-66 ATS (+27.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 9-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CFL

Second Round

Trend Report

1:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home

4:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
Saskatchewan is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games

CFL

Second Round

Don’t forget, two home teams this week won their division and had last week off; road teams both played close games last week in first round of playoffs.

Hamilton (11-8) @ Toronto (11-7)—TiCats won two of three meetings this year, winning last two 33-19 (+3.5) here in Week 15, then beating Argos 24-18 (pick) the next week in Guelph, after Argos had beaten them 39-34 (-3.5) here in season opener. Hamilton’s win at Rogers Centre was its first in last five visits there. Toronto stumbled down stretch, going 2-3 in last five games, 1-3 in last four home games. Argos are 3-6 as home favorites this season, 1-5 in last six tries. Hamilton won five of last six games; they’re 4-2 in last six games as an underdog (4-5 overall), 10-4 SU after starting season 1-4- they’re 4-3 SU in last seven road games, with wins at Montreal/Toronto. Five of last seven series games went over the total, but last seven Hamilton games and four of last five Toronto tilts stayed under. Last time teams met in playoffs, Argos (+6.5) upset Hamilton 16-13 three years ago.

Saskatchewan (12-7) @ Calgary (14-4)—Stampeders won eight of last ten series games, with home side winning last five; Roughriders lost last six visits here (1-3-2 vs spread), losing 42-27 (+3) and 29-25 (+4) here this year, after beating Stamps 36-21 in first meeting in Regina. 29-25 loss was only three weeks ago, when Stamps outgained Riders by 170 yards but were -3 in turnovers. Last time Saskatchewan won in Calgary was playoff game three years ago, as 7.5-point dogs. Streaky Riders started season 8-1, are 4-6 since; they’re 2-1-1 as underdogs this year, 5-4 on road, though just 2-4 in last six away games. Calgary had won five games in row before meaningless Week 19 loss to Lions; they’re 5-3-1 as home favorites this year, with only loss to Toronto in Week 13. Under is 6-1 in Riders’ last seven games, 3-0 in last three Calgary games.