NBA Vegas Handicappers' Power Rankings

[h=1]2013-14 NBA Vegas Rankings[/h][h=3]Handicappers' power ratings for all 30 NBA teams this season[/h]By Evan Abrams | ESPN Insider

With over two weeks gone in the 2013-14 NBA regular season, now is a good time to release the first edition of the ESPN Insider NBA Vegas Rankings. Our esteemed panel of handicappers consists of Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning, Jim Kruger and yours truly, Evan Abrams.
These rankings represent the perceived neutral court value of each NBA team in the eyes of Vegas bettors and handicappers. For example, if the Thunder were to play the Knicks on a neutral court, you could use the ranking system to determine what these four panelists would grade as the perceived line of the game (before adjusting for home-court advantage).
The chart below has our rankings for each team, along with the NBA power rankings from ESPN's Marc Stein, Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projections (which is a player and team projection formula), ESPN's Fall Forecast and the current NBA title odds and NBA preseason win totals from the Las Vegas Hotel. We'll also examine the most undervalued and overvalued teams in Vegas' eyes right now.
Here are all 30 NBA teams ranked by their Vegas power rating.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013-14 NBA Vegas Rankings[/h]

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The Miami Heat are our No. 1 team, which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The third-ranked team is the undefeated Indiana Pacers, who are allowing an absurd 84.5 points per game to opponents. The second- and fifth-ranked teams on our list, the Thunder and Clippers, will be featured in the second half of the ESPN doubleheader Wednesday night, which should be a fantastic matchup between two teams with a combined record of 10-4 and an average points per game of 106.3.
If you compare the SCHOENE projections, the LVH preseason NBA win totals and our aggregate Vegas rankings, two of the most surprising teams so far are the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets were 14th in the SCHOENE projections and 12th in win totals (45.5) but are 24th in our Vegas rankings. The Suns were 30th in the SCHOENE projections, 29th in win totals (19) and are 21st in the Vegas rankings.
Here a few more overvalued and undervalued NBA teams so far this season from a Las Vegas perspective.

[h=3]Overvalued NBA Teams[/h]

Denver Nuggets
The fact that Denver had a projected win total of 45.5 games this season and their preseason odds to win the NBA championship were 30-1 and are now 100-1 pretty much says it all. This is a team that has struggled out of the game and now will be without JaVale McGee.
Kruger: "Many people still think of Denver as a playoff candidate, but put into the driver's seat of a Ferrari-style team is a head coach who obeys the speed limit. This has caused a clash of style and personnel, which could be huge trouble for Denver in the coming months."
Rynning: "They seem to have too many parts going in opposite directions. New head coach Brian Shaw has his hands full with a roster full of low basketball IQ players. In addition, the Nuggets are changing their style of play with resistance from the players."



Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are a completely different story. After everyone thought they would be tanking for a high draft pick in the 2014 NBA draft, they began the season 3-0 with impressive wins over the Heat and Chicago Bulls. But they are 1-4 since and have come back to earth. Still, Philadelphia's LVH win total was a putrid 16.5, which means the Sixers have already won 23.5 percent of the wins needed to surpass their win total through just two weeks.
Rynning: "It was an awesome start for the Sixers, but I'm reluctant to buy in. The blueprint is in place with new head coach Brett Brown and their exciting brand of basketball. However, there's still a talent disparity and the league will quickly adjust to point guard Michael Carter-Williams and especially his major shooting weakness."
Tuley: "The most recent NBA Power Rankings on ESPN.com had the 76ers at No. 16, down from No. 10, and I believe it is still an obvious overreaction to their unexpected fast start."

[h=3]Undervalued NBA Teams[/h]


Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has combined to win just 200 games the past eight regular seasons (25 wins per season on average). Going back to last year, where Kevin Love only played 18 games due to injury, Love has a double-double in 11 straight games going into Wednesday night. The Timberwolves are projected to win 41.5 games this year according to LVH, which would be 16.5 more wins than their average the last eight seasons and over 20 percent of their total wins since 2005.
Kruger: "The T-Wolves are the most underrated team on my list. Love is a beast on the boards and hopefully will have the good health to appear in more than 18 games with PG Ricky Rubio this season. The addition of Kevin Martin and the currently injured Chase Budinger vastly helps the Timberwolves outside shooting."

Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite being listed as high as second in the Vegas Rankings, this panel still believes the Thunder's ceiling is higher than it currently is. Oklahoma City is tied for second with the Indiana Pacers for the lowest odds to win the NBA title at 5-1. The Thunder started out the year 5-1 with their only notable win coming on the road in Minnesota, but that will all change Wednesday night when they take to the road again to face the Los Angeles Clippers. Granted it is a small sample size, but the Thunder are 70-29 (70.7 percent) straight-up since trading James Harden before the 2012 regular season and were 176-97 (64.4 percent) in three seasons with him (including the playoffs).
Rynning: "Remember, the Thunder were the top team in the NBA last year in the regular season. With Russell Westbrook back in the fold, the Thunder simply devours the bulk of their opposition with their athleticism and quickness and Kevin Durant continues to be a nightmare matchup on a nightly basis."

Minnesota at 30-1 odds is still a good bet which can be hedged during playoffs I think


-murph

Those rankings seem solid...

Crazy looking back at some of the win totals, how didn't I get on the under for Denver, they're terrible and totally rebuilding.

Interesting how high they have Detroit, I like their players a lot but they really gotta deal Monroe since Smith can't play the 3 at all. Smith/Drummond is such a nice PF/C duo but it just doesn't work with Monroe.

Monroe for a SG and I'd like that team a lot.

Also I do think Minn is a pretender that can't play defense and will get dusted off in the playoffs but definitely a fun regular season team to watch play.

Called it as soon as it came out, and put it on here: The Wolves were EASILY the best bet on the board for Win Totals. It was COMMON SENSE that they were a playoff team with Love, Rubio, and Pec, and then they added Kevin Martin, who has always been one of the most underrated scorers and pure shooters in all of basketball over the past five years (Plus he never misses at the free throw line), as everyone forgets how well they were playing before they got struck by injuries.

And that's when you know to unload on a bet: If the ONLY concern is "injuries" for a team, rather than the talent involved, that's when you know it's a bet to put a huge amount on, which is why Wolves Over 40.5 (Got it as soon as it came out; can't believe Vegas made such a laughable mistake with that) is my biggest NBA bet I've ever done (To win $550; previous was Kings Over 20 in the lockout-shortened season, which won with little room to spare). People need to understand that, including Vegas apparently, that, more times than not, injuries are coincidental. Love and Rubio's injuries were fluke-ish so you knew they'd be around most or all of the season, and that's the key. Plus, you can't underrate their depth (Apparently 90% of the world forgot who JJ Barea is; as good a back-up as there is and he's a winning player with a good attitude and leadership qualities).

Raptors are also underrated on here and now everyone is seeing what they're all about tonight with the performance they're putting on in Memphis. They're definitely a playoff contender, especially as long as Kyle Lowry stays healthy. The beauty of that is while he's injury prone, I love DJ Augustin as a back-up so he's more than capable of filling in. Raptors Over 35.5 (Another underrated number by Vegas considering what they did after they got Rudy Gay last year) was my second biggest one, as I wrote about also before the season on here, albeit not nearly as big as my Wolves one.

CatsOverUnders said:

Called it as soon as it came out, and put it on here: The Wolves were EASILY the best bet on the board for Win Totals. It was COMMON SENSE that they were a playoff team with Love, Rubio, and Pec, and then they added Kevin Martin, who has always been one of the most underrated scorers and pure shooters in all of basketball over the past five years (Plus he never misses at the free throw line), as everyone forgets how well they were playing before they got struck by injuries.

And that's when you know to unload on a bet: If the ONLY concern is "injuries" for a team, rather than the talent involved, that's when you know it's a bet to put a huge amount on, which is why Wolves Over 40.5 (Got it as soon as it came out; can't believe Vegas made such a laughable mistake with that) is my biggest NBA bet I've ever done (To win $550; previous was Kings Over 20 in the lockout-shortened season, which won with little room to spare). People need to understand that, including Vegas apparently, that, more times than not, injuries are coincidental. Love and Rubio's injuries were fluke-ish so you knew they'd be around most or all of the season, and that's the key. Plus, you can't underrate their depth (Apparently 90% of the world forgot who JJ Barea is; as good a back-up as there is and he's a winning player with a good attitude and leadership qualities).

Raptors are also underrated on here and now everyone is seeing what they're all about tonight with the performance they're putting on in Memphis. They're definitely a playoff contender, especially as long as Kyle Lowry stays healthy. The beauty of that is while he's injury prone, I love DJ Augustin as a back-up so he's more than capable of filling in. Raptors Over 35.5 (Another underrated number by Vegas considering what they did after they got Rudy Gay last year) was my second biggest one, as I wrote about also before the season on here, albeit not nearly as big as my Wolves one.

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Yeah if those guys stay healthy Wolves will easily win over 40.5. I get the "if the injury prone is the only reason lock" but ALL those guys were injury prone. Wolves are very well built for the regular season though as they can just outscore teams most nights. Corey Brewer really underrated pickup too...Wolves can't play D but with him and Rubio they can force tons of TOs and turn them into points fast.

As far as the Raps, keep in mind they got Masai from Toronto as their GM. If they are just plodding along and doing mediocre they might choose to blow it up. There have already been reports they will trade everyone on the team besides Valancuinas so that is the risk there. Raps should win 38-42 if they keep it together but not sure if they will.

I think a lot of people liked the Cleveland over, they look terrible. 1 of the worst teams in the league, Kyrie's stock falling a little compared to other top PGs.

Wiz are 2-5 and I do think once everything gets situated thats a good time, however, Ariza is now out I guess so who knows.


Obviously a lot of bad teams, rebuilding teams, young teams but that top 7-8 is as stacked as it has been in some time.

Also I'll add it wouldn't take much for the Pelicans to be a top 10 team since AD is a top 5 player (top 3 probably but wouldn't make that statement yet) but they really screwed up some of those offseason signings.

In their defense, AD is probably so good they couldn't have tried to lose another year for Parker/Wiggins anyway....

He is gonna look great in a Celts uniform in 3 years. Rondo-Bradley-Wiggins-AD-Olynyk

said the Thunder's most notable win this year was in Minnesota....the Thunder got throttled in Minnesota. I think the Thunder is severely overrated right now