[h=1]Contrarian value bets for Week 11[/h][h=3]Where value lies among teams that performed poorly ATS in season's first half[/h]By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
With 10 weeks of the 2013 NFL season in the books, all 32 teams have played at least nine games, meaning we're officially past the halfway point. By now, analysts and fans have seen enough football to separate the contenders from the pretenders and predict which teams have that championship pedigree.
Recreational bettors also believe they can now distinguish the good teams from the bad and will adjust their action going forward because of first-half results. As contrarian bettors who buy on bad news and sell on good, this is something we can take advantage of -- not only this week, but for the rest of the season. With this in mind, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to create a winning system that exploits early-season results to find NFL betting value.
To get started, I added Bet Labs' "Game Month" filter to isolate only regular-season games played in November, December and January. Next, I applied the "Team ATS%" filter and immediately discovered a system with a sample size of more than 110 games and against-the-spread (ATS) win rate of 60.4 percent that is producing four system matches in Week 11.
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The Team ATS% filter allows users to isolate teams that have performed ATS at a specific winning percentage. While conducting the analysis, I quickly discovered that in the months of November, December and January, NFL teams with an ATS winning percentage of 25 percent or less coming into November actually cover the spread in their remaining games at a rate of 60.4 percent. The table below summarizes the analysis.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Week 11 System[/h]NFL teams with an ATS win rate of 25% or less, since 2004
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Why does this work?
Using our contrarian betting strategy, we're always searching for situations where the betting public "knows" the result of a game before it's played. By November, bettors will no longer back teams that have burned them while also sticking with those that have been profitable.
Because the above system looks at ATS winning percentage (as opposed to straight-up winning percentage), the system matches are all teams that have lost money for bettors so far this season. The betting public, in turn, gets fed up and either stays away from these teams or begins betting against them.
When oddsmakers can accurately predict where they'll receive one-sided action, they shade those lines and force public bettors to get money down at worse numbers. Conversely, this shading creates line value for those willing to bet on the teams that have performed poorly ATS.
[h=3]Week 11 system matches[/h]
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) versus Arizona Cardinals
Last week, Jacksonville notched its first win of the season, beating Tennessee 29-27. However, bettors are not impressed, as only 21 percent of spread bets have taken the Jaguars this week as home underdogs of almost a touchdown. For the second straight week, we'll buy Jacksonville and fade an Arizona team that is favored on the road for the first time this season.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in six of its past seven games, including Sunday's ugly home loss to Seattle. Despite the downward spiral, our analysis above indicates that Atlanta is a team offering value this week, especially against a Tampa Bay team that notched its first win of the season in front of a national television audience on "Monday Night Football."
Chicago Bears (-2.5) versus Baltimore Ravens
Chicago has once again lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler, but backup Josh McCown has already proved that he can play well enough to win. With Baltimore coming off a high-profile overtime victory, expect the majority of bettors to take the Ravens and the points. That makes the Bears a nice value play, especially laying less than field goal.
Houston Texans (-7) versus Oakland Raiders
With the Matt Schaub era seemingly over, Case Keenum has stepped in and breathed new life into the Houston passing game. The Texans were a popular bet early this season, but they have burned bettors with a 2-7 ATS record to date. We usually don't lay a touchdown or more in the NFL, but see this as a rare opportunity in which a seven-point home favorite is offering contrarian value.
ESPN INSIDER
With 10 weeks of the 2013 NFL season in the books, all 32 teams have played at least nine games, meaning we're officially past the halfway point. By now, analysts and fans have seen enough football to separate the contenders from the pretenders and predict which teams have that championship pedigree.
Recreational bettors also believe they can now distinguish the good teams from the bad and will adjust their action going forward because of first-half results. As contrarian bettors who buy on bad news and sell on good, this is something we can take advantage of -- not only this week, but for the rest of the season. With this in mind, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to create a winning system that exploits early-season results to find NFL betting value.
To get started, I added Bet Labs' "Game Month" filter to isolate only regular-season games played in November, December and January. Next, I applied the "Team ATS%" filter and immediately discovered a system with a sample size of more than 110 games and against-the-spread (ATS) win rate of 60.4 percent that is producing four system matches in Week 11.
<OFFER></OFFER>
The Team ATS% filter allows users to isolate teams that have performed ATS at a specific winning percentage. While conducting the analysis, I quickly discovered that in the months of November, December and January, NFL teams with an ATS winning percentage of 25 percent or less coming into November actually cover the spread in their remaining games at a rate of 60.4 percent. The table below summarizes the analysis.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Week 11 System[/h]NFL teams with an ATS win rate of 25% or less, since 2004
| Team ATS % | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,918 ($100 x 19.18 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. | |||
| 25% and less | 67-44 (60.4%) | +19.18 units | +17.3% |
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</TFOOT><TBODY>
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Why does this work?
Using our contrarian betting strategy, we're always searching for situations where the betting public "knows" the result of a game before it's played. By November, bettors will no longer back teams that have burned them while also sticking with those that have been profitable.
Because the above system looks at ATS winning percentage (as opposed to straight-up winning percentage), the system matches are all teams that have lost money for bettors so far this season. The betting public, in turn, gets fed up and either stays away from these teams or begins betting against them.
When oddsmakers can accurately predict where they'll receive one-sided action, they shade those lines and force public bettors to get money down at worse numbers. Conversely, this shading creates line value for those willing to bet on the teams that have performed poorly ATS.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) versus Arizona Cardinals
Last week, Jacksonville notched its first win of the season, beating Tennessee 29-27. However, bettors are not impressed, as only 21 percent of spread bets have taken the Jaguars this week as home underdogs of almost a touchdown. For the second straight week, we'll buy Jacksonville and fade an Arizona team that is favored on the road for the first time this season.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in six of its past seven games, including Sunday's ugly home loss to Seattle. Despite the downward spiral, our analysis above indicates that Atlanta is a team offering value this week, especially against a Tampa Bay team that notched its first win of the season in front of a national television audience on "Monday Night Football."
Chicago Bears (-2.5) versus Baltimore Ravens
Chicago has once again lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler, but backup Josh McCown has already proved that he can play well enough to win. With Baltimore coming off a high-profile overtime victory, expect the majority of bettors to take the Ravens and the points. That makes the Bears a nice value play, especially laying less than field goal.
Houston Texans (-7) versus Oakland Raiders
With the Matt Schaub era seemingly over, Case Keenum has stepped in and breathed new life into the Houston passing game. The Texans were a popular bet early this season, but they have burned bettors with a 2-7 ATS record to date. We usually don't lay a touchdown or more in the NFL, but see this as a rare opportunity in which a seven-point home favorite is offering contrarian value.
