MNF Chaser: How to bet NE-CAR
By Ben Fawkes | ESPN Insider
Tonight's "Monday Night Football" matchup is one of the better games on the MNF slate this season, as the surprising 6-3 Carolina Panthers play host to the 7-2 New England Patriots.
Carolina comes in on a five-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread (ATS). The Panthers have used a more balanced attack this season, relying on a solid ground game (128 yards per game, 10th in the NFL) led by DeAngelo Williams. This in turn has allowed Carolina to ask Cam Newton to do less, as he has thrown 37 passes or more just once during the winning streak, and has a Total QBR of 70.5 or higher in four of the five games.
But what stands out for Carolina is its defense. Led by star linebacker Luke Kuechly, Carolina is allowing only 82 rushing yards per game (third), 16 first downs a game (second), 5.82 yards per play (fourth) and an opposing QBR of 30.3 (second). More important for bettors during the winning streak is that the Panthers have been obliterating the point spread, covering by an average of 13.6 points per game.
For the Patriots (5-4 ATS), it's business as usual. Tom Brady and his young receiving corps seem to finally have clicked, and this is a different offense with Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. At 7-2 SU, New England has a firm grasp on the AFC East and can now start ironing out the kinks in preparation for a likely playoff spot. First on that improvement list should be the Patriots run defense, which is allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game (29th) and needs to find a way to make up for the injury losses of Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly.
Despite Carolina's five-game winning streak, the public thinks three points is too much for Carolina to be favored at home, and 68 percent of the public bets have come in on New England, according to ESPN Insider's PickCenter.
Let's turn our attention as always to line-movement analysis from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from Insider's panel of handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers[/h]
Spread: Opened at Carolina minus-2.5; now Carolina minus-3
Total: Opened at 44.5; now 47
</CENTER><OFFER></OFFER>
Jay Kornegay says: "Carolina opened a minus-2.5 favorite and stayed there the entire week until Saturday. A couple of larger plays came in on the Panthers and Carolina was bumped up to minus-3, even. The ticket count is still in favor (60 percent) of the popular Patriots but there isn't enough support to move the number. Most bookmakers won't want to move on/off this minus-3, so we expect we'll see variations of minus-3 all the way to kickoff.
"The total opened 44.5 and jumped to 46.5 early in the week. Since that point, the total has been flip-flopping back and forth between 46 and 46.5. We expect a little more 'over' money on Monday and the number to creep up to 47 or even higher by the start of the game. "
Prediction: Line will stay at minus-3; total could increase.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "I'm liking the Patriots in this spot as well, but just like the Titans on Thursday night (or the Steelers versus the Lions on the Sunday card), it's hard to take just plus-2.5 in the NFL when the game could very easily come down to a field goal."
ATS pick: Pass
Sports Boss says: "The Panthers head into this game off a huge win in San Francisco last week while the Patriots enjoyed their bye week, giving the Pats a nice edge there, especially considering the two head coaches in this matchup. In addition to that coaching edge, I have a big system play that fades the Panthers in this spot based on their recent performance.
"I look for the Patriots to set their game plan packing the box and stuffing the Panthers' run, turning Newton into a pocket passer. They feel they will take their chances in a game that pits Brady versus Newton in the air, especially because the Pats sport the better pass defense in my ratings versus the tougher opponent pass offense schedule. Like their SNF win as a barking 'dog at Atlanta earlier this season, I am backing New England (recommending the hook if you have plus-3)."
ATS pick: Patriots
Wunderdog says: "The Patriots had to make do without many of their receiving weapons from a year ago to start the season. Brady struggled trying to get the offense going, and he also had an injured hand that apparently was more troublesome than originally known, but things have changed dramatically. He now has a healthy Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. He also should have Shane Vereen back and able to help. Remember, Vereen has not suited up since running for 101 yards on 14 carries in the opener. The Pats offense over the first five games produced just 19 PPG, but over the past four that has risen to 34.8 PPG. Carolina has a solid defense, but the offense is fairly pedestrian at 23.8 points per game. The Pats also get back their best DB here in Aqib Talib, who will make Newton have to find a second option.
"The Brady and Bill Belichick combo is 10-5 ATS on Monday night and 24-10 ATS when not having to lay a field goal or more. And Brady is 8-1 straight up after a bye. Carolina is coming off a tough physical and emotional game, and young teams like this usually can't put together back-to-back great efforts in big games. Meanwhile, New England has gotten healthy and has had two weeks to prepare for this one. Carolina will not be up to this challenge. Take New England."
Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Monday night game
ATS pick: Patriots
By Ben Fawkes | ESPN Insider
Tonight's "Monday Night Football" matchup is one of the better games on the MNF slate this season, as the surprising 6-3 Carolina Panthers play host to the 7-2 New England Patriots.
Carolina comes in on a five-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread (ATS). The Panthers have used a more balanced attack this season, relying on a solid ground game (128 yards per game, 10th in the NFL) led by DeAngelo Williams. This in turn has allowed Carolina to ask Cam Newton to do less, as he has thrown 37 passes or more just once during the winning streak, and has a Total QBR of 70.5 or higher in four of the five games.
But what stands out for Carolina is its defense. Led by star linebacker Luke Kuechly, Carolina is allowing only 82 rushing yards per game (third), 16 first downs a game (second), 5.82 yards per play (fourth) and an opposing QBR of 30.3 (second). More important for bettors during the winning streak is that the Panthers have been obliterating the point spread, covering by an average of 13.6 points per game.
For the Patriots (5-4 ATS), it's business as usual. Tom Brady and his young receiving corps seem to finally have clicked, and this is a different offense with Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. At 7-2 SU, New England has a firm grasp on the AFC East and can now start ironing out the kinks in preparation for a likely playoff spot. First on that improvement list should be the Patriots run defense, which is allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game (29th) and needs to find a way to make up for the injury losses of Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly.
Despite Carolina's five-game winning streak, the public thinks three points is too much for Carolina to be favored at home, and 68 percent of the public bets have come in on New England, according to ESPN Insider's PickCenter.
Let's turn our attention as always to line-movement analysis from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and an ATS pick on the game from Insider's panel of handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers[/h]
Spread: Opened at Carolina minus-2.5; now Carolina minus-3
Total: Opened at 44.5; now 47
</CENTER><OFFER></OFFER>
Jay Kornegay says: "Carolina opened a minus-2.5 favorite and stayed there the entire week until Saturday. A couple of larger plays came in on the Panthers and Carolina was bumped up to minus-3, even. The ticket count is still in favor (60 percent) of the popular Patriots but there isn't enough support to move the number. Most bookmakers won't want to move on/off this minus-3, so we expect we'll see variations of minus-3 all the way to kickoff.
"The total opened 44.5 and jumped to 46.5 early in the week. Since that point, the total has been flip-flopping back and forth between 46 and 46.5. We expect a little more 'over' money on Monday and the number to creep up to 47 or even higher by the start of the game. "
Prediction: Line will stay at minus-3; total could increase.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "I'm liking the Patriots in this spot as well, but just like the Titans on Thursday night (or the Steelers versus the Lions on the Sunday card), it's hard to take just plus-2.5 in the NFL when the game could very easily come down to a field goal."
ATS pick: Pass
Sports Boss says: "The Panthers head into this game off a huge win in San Francisco last week while the Patriots enjoyed their bye week, giving the Pats a nice edge there, especially considering the two head coaches in this matchup. In addition to that coaching edge, I have a big system play that fades the Panthers in this spot based on their recent performance.
"I look for the Patriots to set their game plan packing the box and stuffing the Panthers' run, turning Newton into a pocket passer. They feel they will take their chances in a game that pits Brady versus Newton in the air, especially because the Pats sport the better pass defense in my ratings versus the tougher opponent pass offense schedule. Like their SNF win as a barking 'dog at Atlanta earlier this season, I am backing New England (recommending the hook if you have plus-3)."
ATS pick: Patriots
Wunderdog says: "The Patriots had to make do without many of their receiving weapons from a year ago to start the season. Brady struggled trying to get the offense going, and he also had an injured hand that apparently was more troublesome than originally known, but things have changed dramatically. He now has a healthy Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. He also should have Shane Vereen back and able to help. Remember, Vereen has not suited up since running for 101 yards on 14 carries in the opener. The Pats offense over the first five games produced just 19 PPG, but over the past four that has risen to 34.8 PPG. Carolina has a solid defense, but the offense is fairly pedestrian at 23.8 points per game. The Pats also get back their best DB here in Aqib Talib, who will make Newton have to find a second option.
"The Brady and Bill Belichick combo is 10-5 ATS on Monday night and 24-10 ATS when not having to lay a field goal or more. And Brady is 8-1 straight up after a bye. Carolina is coming off a tough physical and emotional game, and young teams like this usually can't put together back-to-back great efforts in big games. Meanwhile, New England has gotten healthy and has had two weeks to prepare for this one. Carolina will not be up to this challenge. Take New England."
Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Monday night game
ATS pick: Patriots
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