[h=1]Opening Line: Week 12 moves[/h][h=3]Week 11 gambling reactions and examining Week 12 early line moves[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Another NFL Sunday, another dollar (for the sports books).
Sunday's action brought its usual mix of nail-biting finishes and blowouts, but when it was all over favorites had gone 7-5-1 against the spread (7-5-2 ATS in Week 11 including the push in the Colts' 3-point win over the Titans on Thursday night) with the overs going 9-5. That combination would normally not be good for the books (because the public tends to bet favorites and overs), but they won most of the major decisions and the four games that hit the fave/over parlay didn't involve the most popular teams: Falcons-Buccaneers, Browns-Bengals, Cardinals-Jaguars and Vikings-Seahawks.
I like to use the LVH SuperContest as a barometer of where the betting market is on most games. It's a mix of sharps and squares and is pretty indicative of what games the books end up needing. The most selected teams by the SuperContest entrants were the Saints minus-3 (push against the SuperContest line), Chiefs plus-8 (loss), Jets plus-1 (loss after going off as the favorite) and Chargers minus-1.5 (loss) with the Patriots plus-2.5 going Monday night against the Panthers. That's 0-3-1 this week and drops the Top 5 Consensus Picks to 15-37-2 ATS (28.8 percent) on the season while the overall consensus went 5-7-2 ATS and is 64-92-4 ATS (41 percent).
Actually, the Saints' 23-20 win over the 49ers was one of the losers for the house as the game closed a consensus Saints minus-3.5 (and that's how it was graded in the accompanying chart below, with the Saints failing to cover and the 49ers improving to being tied for a league-best ATS record of 7-3), so they refunded all the action on the 3-point spread and lost vast majority of late bets when they went to 3.5.
The books made out like bandits when the Raiders upset the Texans 28-23. The line was Texans minus-7 until it was announced that QB Terrelle Pryor would be out for the Raiders and all the parlays and teasers that were already on the Texans increased even further as Houston was bet up to a consensus 10.5-point favorite. Even with having to pay off around plus-400 on the Raiders' money line, the books made out great on that result.
Another big winner for the books was the Giants, who opened as high as minus-6.5 against the Packers but closed at a consensus minus-3.5, as they won and covered 27-13. Home underdogs went 3-1 SU and ATS on Sunday (3-1-1 including Thursday night) but bettors didn't back the Bills, Steelers and Dolphins in their upsets of the Jets, Lions and Chargers, though they did have the covering Cardinals as the unpopular Jaguars were the lone home 'dog with an ATS loss.
Let's take a look at the other Week 11 gambling lessons and examine some early line moves for Week 12. <OFFER></OFFER>
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Here are the year-to-date records as of Sunday night:
Favorites: 107-51 SU, 79-75-4 (51.3 percent) ... three games closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 99-60 SU, 89-66-4 ATS (57.4 percent) ... two games on neutral field in London
Home underdogs: 25-33 SU, 32-25-1 ATS (56.1 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 5-16 SU, 13-8 ATS (61.9 percent)
Over/unders: 87-71-3 (55.1 percent)
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 11[/h]
1. Broncos are back to No. 1 (or still at No. 1, depending on source)
In the latest Most Anticipated Game of the Year (until they meet again in two weeks), the Broncos beat the Chiefs 27-17 Sunday night, also covering the 7.5-point spread. They'll now be No. 1 in just about any rankings that you see (and already were there when we updated the NFL Vegas Bettors' Poll at the midseason mark). Some rankings had the Chiefs at No. 1 because of their 9-0 record, but the game showed that the Broncos are a more complete team overall and lived up to their power rating.
2. Chiefs did win in one regard
The Chiefs' style of play won out in regards to the over/under as the 27-17 score fell short of the over/under of 49.5 on the game. The Broncos, whose first eight games this season had gone over their totals, stayed under for the second straight game. Their 8-2 over record is still tied for best in the league with the Rams (yes, the Rams). The Vikings are next at 7-2-1 with the Titans at 7-3. The Chiefs improved to 8-2 with the under, the best record in the league by far, as the only other team with an under record of better than 60 percent is the Panthers at 5-3-1 heading into Monday night's game with New England.
3. Offenses continue to overwhelm defenses
The overs are 9-5 this weekend heading into Monday night and lead 87-71-3 (55.1 percent) on the season. No matter how high oddsmakers continue to set the totals, many of them still fly over. In fact, seven of the 14 games so far this weekend exceeded their totals by 10 points or more. Even games that look like stone-cold unders often end up sneaking just over the total. Another thing adding to this rash of overs is that even when defenses get a stop via turnover, they often run back the fumble or INT for a TD and those add to the scoring instead of slowing it down.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday the LVH put up its Week 12 openers, including those involving teams still playing Sunday and Monday night. Like last week, there were some games with question marks at QB (Raiders with Terrelle Pryor, Bears with Jay Cutler, Packers with Aaron Rodgers), but it was only the Vikings-Packers game that was left off the openers. We'll detail any significant influences on the lines in the game-by-game breakdown below.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number. <!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 12 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Saints -7
Falcons (Thursday)
Buccaneers
Lions -9
Jaguars
Texans -11
Vikings
Packers OFF
Chargers
Chiefs -4.5
Panthers -4
Dolphins
Steelers
Browns -2
Bears
Rams -1
Jets
Ravens -3
Titans -1
Raiders
Colts
Cardinals -2
Cowboys
Giants -2.5
Broncos -2.5
Patriots
49ers -5
Redskins (Monday)
<!-- end inline 3 -->Saints minus-7 at Falcons (Thursday): The LVH advance line on this game last week was Saints minus-6.5 and adjusted to a full touchdown after the Falcons fell to 2-8 with a loss to the Bucs and the Saints outlasted the 49ers. As expected, early action came in on the Saints and I don't see anything keeping this from moving off the key number to 7.5 and possibly getting to 10 before a significant number of people are willing to back the Falcons.
Buccaneers at Lions minus-9: This was minus-10 on the LVH advance line and re-opened at 9 after the Bucs' win over the Falcons and the Lions' loss to the Steelers. Unlike the Falcons, the Bucs should be expected to get some support off two straight wins and three straight covers, and this line should settle around Lions minus-8 or 8.5.
Jaguars at Texans minus-11: This was Texans minus-10 last week before both teams lost Sunday, and the LVH went with Texans minus-11 as its opener. The offshore book CRIS went with 10 and the market has since settled right in the middle at 10.5 (which is where the Wynn and William Hill books here in Vegas opened it).
Vikings at Packers OFF: The LVH kept this off the board because of Rodgers' status. Though most speculation has been that he will return for the Thanksgiving game against the Lions, he hinted on his radio show last week that he might be back for this game. If it was announced that he was returning, this line will probably be at least minus-10; if Scott Tolzien is starting, it's probably around a field goal (maybe a little higher on both with Vikings getting routed by the Seahawks).
Chargers at Chiefs minus-4.5: This line was posted before the Chiefs' Sunday night game at Denver. Their 10-point loss shouldn't alter this spread too much.
Panthers minus-4 at Dolphins: Most books have this off the board with the Panthers playing Monday night and it could be impacted by what happens in their game against the Patriots. William Hill opened Panthers minus-3.5.
Steelers at Browns minus-2: This was Browns minus-3 on the advance line before they got blown out by the Bengals and the Steelers beat the Lions. CRIS opened at 2.5, but by late Sunday night many offshore books were down to 1.
Bears at Rams minus-1: Josh McCown led the Bears to victory Sunday, so oddsmakers aren't seeing too much of a drop-off from Jay Cutler and most books that post openers on Sunday nights went ahead with a line. Offshore books and the Wynn opted for pick 'em, so we could see the Bears bet to favoritism.
Jets at Ravens minus-3: This was minus-3.5 on the advance line before both teams lost Sunday. The Wynn went with 3.5 and by late Sunday night it looked like that's where the line is settling.
Titans minus-1 at Raiders: This was off the board with Pryor's injury last week and there's a difference of opinion as the LVH reopened the Titans minus-1 but the Wynn and offshore books went with the Raiders as a small favorite. It should hover around pick 'em all week.
Colts at Cardinals minus-2: This was pick 'em last week, but after the Colts rallied to beat the Titans on Thursday night and the Cards beat the Jaguars on Sunday, the LVH went with Arizona minus-2 while William Hill and offshore books went with 1.5. I expect this to get bet toward pick 'em.
Cowboys at Giants minus-2.5: This was Giants minus-1.5 on the advance line and moved to 2.5 after New York's fourth straight win. CRIS went with 3 and William Hill went with 1.5. Later Sunday night, several offshore books went to a 1-point spread to discourage teasers on the Cowboys. It looks like this will settled in the area under a field goal.
Broncos minus-2.5 at Patriots: Next Sunday night's marquee matchup was posted before Sunday night's Broncos-Chiefs game. It might get adjusted back up to a field goal (which is where it was on the LVH advance line), though obviously the Patriots' Monday night performance will influence this line further.
49ers minus-5 at Redskins (Monday): The LVH advance line was 49ers minus-5.5 and got bet down to 4.5 last week. LVH re-opened it at 5 (the Wynn went even higher at 5.5) while CRIS went with 4 and by late Sunday night it appeared to have settled right at 4.5.
So there's the opening look at the Week 12 lines. Join us Friday with my "Tuley's Take" (and a tentatively scheduled live chat for Insiders around 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST) after we see the market settle on all these games.
LAS VEGAS -- Another NFL Sunday, another dollar (for the sports books).
Sunday's action brought its usual mix of nail-biting finishes and blowouts, but when it was all over favorites had gone 7-5-1 against the spread (7-5-2 ATS in Week 11 including the push in the Colts' 3-point win over the Titans on Thursday night) with the overs going 9-5. That combination would normally not be good for the books (because the public tends to bet favorites and overs), but they won most of the major decisions and the four games that hit the fave/over parlay didn't involve the most popular teams: Falcons-Buccaneers, Browns-Bengals, Cardinals-Jaguars and Vikings-Seahawks.
I like to use the LVH SuperContest as a barometer of where the betting market is on most games. It's a mix of sharps and squares and is pretty indicative of what games the books end up needing. The most selected teams by the SuperContest entrants were the Saints minus-3 (push against the SuperContest line), Chiefs plus-8 (loss), Jets plus-1 (loss after going off as the favorite) and Chargers minus-1.5 (loss) with the Patriots plus-2.5 going Monday night against the Panthers. That's 0-3-1 this week and drops the Top 5 Consensus Picks to 15-37-2 ATS (28.8 percent) on the season while the overall consensus went 5-7-2 ATS and is 64-92-4 ATS (41 percent).
Actually, the Saints' 23-20 win over the 49ers was one of the losers for the house as the game closed a consensus Saints minus-3.5 (and that's how it was graded in the accompanying chart below, with the Saints failing to cover and the 49ers improving to being tied for a league-best ATS record of 7-3), so they refunded all the action on the 3-point spread and lost vast majority of late bets when they went to 3.5.
The books made out like bandits when the Raiders upset the Texans 28-23. The line was Texans minus-7 until it was announced that QB Terrelle Pryor would be out for the Raiders and all the parlays and teasers that were already on the Texans increased even further as Houston was bet up to a consensus 10.5-point favorite. Even with having to pay off around plus-400 on the Raiders' money line, the books made out great on that result.
Another big winner for the books was the Giants, who opened as high as minus-6.5 against the Packers but closed at a consensus minus-3.5, as they won and covered 27-13. Home underdogs went 3-1 SU and ATS on Sunday (3-1-1 including Thursday night) but bettors didn't back the Bills, Steelers and Dolphins in their upsets of the Jets, Lions and Chargers, though they did have the covering Cardinals as the unpopular Jaguars were the lone home 'dog with an ATS loss.
Let's take a look at the other Week 11 gambling lessons and examine some early line moves for Week 12. <OFFER></OFFER>
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com all records based on VFV Consensus Closing Lines; teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record then ATS streak; O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers (6-4) | 7-3 | W1 | 5-5 | U2 |
| Dallas Cowboys (5-5) | 7-3 | L2 | 5-5 | O1 |
| Oakland Raiders (4-6) | 7-3 | W2 | 4-6 | O3 |
| Seattle Seahawks (10-1) | 7-4 | W2 | 6-5 | O1 |
| Carolina Panthers (6-3) | 6-3 | W5 | 3-5-1 | U2 |
| Tennessee Titans (4-6) | 5-3-2 | P1 | 7-3 | O4 |
| Denver Broncos (9-1) | 6-4 | W3 | 8-2 | U2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) | 6-4 | L1 | 2-8 | U2 |
| New Orleans Saints (8-2) | 6-4 | L1 | 4-5-1 | U1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) | 6-4-1 | W1 | 6-5 | O1 |
| Arizona Cardinals (6-4) | 6-4 | W1 | 5-5 | O2 |
| New York Jets (5-5) | 6-4 | L1 | 6-3-1 | O1 |
| New England Patriots (7-2) | 5-4 | W2 | 4-5 | O1 |
| Indianapolis Colts (7-3) | 5-4-1 | P1 | 6-4 | O4 |
| Baltimore Ravens (4-6) | 5-4-1 | P1 | 4-6 | O1 |
| San Diego Chargers (4-6) | 5-4-1 | L3 | 4-6 | U2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (6-5) | 6-5 | W3 | 6-5 | U2 |
| Buffalo Bills (4-7) | 6-5 | W1 | 6-4-1 | O1 |
| Detroit Lions (6-4) | 5-5 | L1 | 6-4 | O1 |
| Miami Dolphins (5-5) | 5-5 | W1 | 5-4-1 | U1 |
| Cleveland Browns (4-6) | 5-5 | L1 | 6-4 | O3 |
| Green Bay Packers (5-5) | 4-6 | L3 | 4-6 | U3 |
| New York Giants (4-6) | 4-6 | L2 | 5-5 | U1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) | 4-6 | W2 | 4-6 | O1 |
| St. Louis Rams (4-6) | 4-6 | W1 | 8-2 | O2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) | 4-6 | W3 | 6-4 | O6 |
| Minnesota Vikings (2-8) | 4-6 | L1 | 7-2-1 | O2 |
| Chicago Bears (6-4) | 2-6-2 | P1 | 7-3 | O1 |
| Washington Redskins (3-7) | 3-7 | L2 | 6-4 | U1 |
| Houston Texans (2-8) | 2-8 | L1 | 7-3 | O3 |
| Atlanta Falcons (2-8) | 2-8 | L4 | 6-4 | O1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) | 2-8 | L1 | 6-4 | O3 |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Here are the year-to-date records as of Sunday night:
Favorites: 107-51 SU, 79-75-4 (51.3 percent) ... three games closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 99-60 SU, 89-66-4 ATS (57.4 percent) ... two games on neutral field in London
Home underdogs: 25-33 SU, 32-25-1 ATS (56.1 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 5-16 SU, 13-8 ATS (61.9 percent)
Over/unders: 87-71-3 (55.1 percent)
1. Broncos are back to No. 1 (or still at No. 1, depending on source)
In the latest Most Anticipated Game of the Year (until they meet again in two weeks), the Broncos beat the Chiefs 27-17 Sunday night, also covering the 7.5-point spread. They'll now be No. 1 in just about any rankings that you see (and already were there when we updated the NFL Vegas Bettors' Poll at the midseason mark). Some rankings had the Chiefs at No. 1 because of their 9-0 record, but the game showed that the Broncos are a more complete team overall and lived up to their power rating.
2. Chiefs did win in one regard
The Chiefs' style of play won out in regards to the over/under as the 27-17 score fell short of the over/under of 49.5 on the game. The Broncos, whose first eight games this season had gone over their totals, stayed under for the second straight game. Their 8-2 over record is still tied for best in the league with the Rams (yes, the Rams). The Vikings are next at 7-2-1 with the Titans at 7-3. The Chiefs improved to 8-2 with the under, the best record in the league by far, as the only other team with an under record of better than 60 percent is the Panthers at 5-3-1 heading into Monday night's game with New England.
3. Offenses continue to overwhelm defenses
The overs are 9-5 this weekend heading into Monday night and lead 87-71-3 (55.1 percent) on the season. No matter how high oddsmakers continue to set the totals, many of them still fly over. In fact, seven of the 14 games so far this weekend exceeded their totals by 10 points or more. Even games that look like stone-cold unders often end up sneaking just over the total. Another thing adding to this rash of overs is that even when defenses get a stop via turnover, they often run back the fumble or INT for a TD and those add to the scoring instead of slowing it down.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday the LVH put up its Week 12 openers, including those involving teams still playing Sunday and Monday night. Like last week, there were some games with question marks at QB (Raiders with Terrelle Pryor, Bears with Jay Cutler, Packers with Aaron Rodgers), but it was only the Vikings-Packers game that was left off the openers. We'll detail any significant influences on the lines in the game-by-game breakdown below.
[h=3]Early line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number. <!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 12 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Saints -7
Falcons (Thursday)
Buccaneers
Lions -9
Jaguars
Texans -11
Vikings
Packers OFF
Chargers
Chiefs -4.5
Panthers -4
Dolphins
Steelers
Browns -2
Bears
Rams -1
Jets
Ravens -3
Titans -1
Raiders
Colts
Cardinals -2
Cowboys
Giants -2.5
Broncos -2.5
Patriots
49ers -5
Redskins (Monday)
<!-- end inline 3 -->Saints minus-7 at Falcons (Thursday): The LVH advance line on this game last week was Saints minus-6.5 and adjusted to a full touchdown after the Falcons fell to 2-8 with a loss to the Bucs and the Saints outlasted the 49ers. As expected, early action came in on the Saints and I don't see anything keeping this from moving off the key number to 7.5 and possibly getting to 10 before a significant number of people are willing to back the Falcons.
Buccaneers at Lions minus-9: This was minus-10 on the LVH advance line and re-opened at 9 after the Bucs' win over the Falcons and the Lions' loss to the Steelers. Unlike the Falcons, the Bucs should be expected to get some support off two straight wins and three straight covers, and this line should settle around Lions minus-8 or 8.5.
Jaguars at Texans minus-11: This was Texans minus-10 last week before both teams lost Sunday, and the LVH went with Texans minus-11 as its opener. The offshore book CRIS went with 10 and the market has since settled right in the middle at 10.5 (which is where the Wynn and William Hill books here in Vegas opened it).
Vikings at Packers OFF: The LVH kept this off the board because of Rodgers' status. Though most speculation has been that he will return for the Thanksgiving game against the Lions, he hinted on his radio show last week that he might be back for this game. If it was announced that he was returning, this line will probably be at least minus-10; if Scott Tolzien is starting, it's probably around a field goal (maybe a little higher on both with Vikings getting routed by the Seahawks).
Chargers at Chiefs minus-4.5: This line was posted before the Chiefs' Sunday night game at Denver. Their 10-point loss shouldn't alter this spread too much.
Panthers minus-4 at Dolphins: Most books have this off the board with the Panthers playing Monday night and it could be impacted by what happens in their game against the Patriots. William Hill opened Panthers minus-3.5.
Steelers at Browns minus-2: This was Browns minus-3 on the advance line before they got blown out by the Bengals and the Steelers beat the Lions. CRIS opened at 2.5, but by late Sunday night many offshore books were down to 1.
Bears at Rams minus-1: Josh McCown led the Bears to victory Sunday, so oddsmakers aren't seeing too much of a drop-off from Jay Cutler and most books that post openers on Sunday nights went ahead with a line. Offshore books and the Wynn opted for pick 'em, so we could see the Bears bet to favoritism.
Jets at Ravens minus-3: This was minus-3.5 on the advance line before both teams lost Sunday. The Wynn went with 3.5 and by late Sunday night it looked like that's where the line is settling.
Titans minus-1 at Raiders: This was off the board with Pryor's injury last week and there's a difference of opinion as the LVH reopened the Titans minus-1 but the Wynn and offshore books went with the Raiders as a small favorite. It should hover around pick 'em all week.
Colts at Cardinals minus-2: This was pick 'em last week, but after the Colts rallied to beat the Titans on Thursday night and the Cards beat the Jaguars on Sunday, the LVH went with Arizona minus-2 while William Hill and offshore books went with 1.5. I expect this to get bet toward pick 'em.
Cowboys at Giants minus-2.5: This was Giants minus-1.5 on the advance line and moved to 2.5 after New York's fourth straight win. CRIS went with 3 and William Hill went with 1.5. Later Sunday night, several offshore books went to a 1-point spread to discourage teasers on the Cowboys. It looks like this will settled in the area under a field goal.
Broncos minus-2.5 at Patriots: Next Sunday night's marquee matchup was posted before Sunday night's Broncos-Chiefs game. It might get adjusted back up to a field goal (which is where it was on the LVH advance line), though obviously the Patriots' Monday night performance will influence this line further.
49ers minus-5 at Redskins (Monday): The LVH advance line was 49ers minus-5.5 and got bet down to 4.5 last week. LVH re-opened it at 5 (the Wynn went even higher at 5.5) while CRIS went with 4 and by late Sunday night it appeared to have settled right at 4.5.
So there's the opening look at the Week 12 lines. Join us Friday with my "Tuley's Take" (and a tentatively scheduled live chat for Insiders around 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST) after we see the market settle on all these games.
