Service Plays Wednesday 11/20/13

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GL!

Northern Illinois at Toledo: What bettors need to know

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets (+2.5, OFF)

Northern Illinois can clinch at least a share of the Mid-American Conference West Division title with a victory Wednesday against host Toledo and assure the No. 21 Huskies a fourth consecutive trip to the MAC championship game. A win by the Rockets in the Glass Bowl would forge a three-way tie for the division lead with Ball State. The No. 1 task for Toledo will be finding a way to stop Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, who upped his Heisman Trophy stock by passing for 345 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 123 yards and two scores in a 48-27 victory last week against Ball State.

Lynch established an FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback earlier this season when he totaled 316 yards in a 38-17 victory against Central Michigan. Last season against Toledo, Lynch threw for a career-best 407 yards and ran for 162 in the 31-24 victory. The Rockets are riding a five-game winning streak, despite giving up 27 fourth-quarter points in 51-41 victory last week against Buffalo, averaging 45.2 points in that span.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Toledo opened at +2 home dogs and have been bet to +2.5. The total is currently OFF.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 30s with an 8 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-0, 6-0 MAC): One of the surprises for the Huskies this season has been the emergence of running back Cameron Stingily. He was limited to four appearances on special teams last season and one rushing attempt after switching to running back in the offseason and figured to be
buried behind Akeem Daniels and Keith Harris Jr. on the depth chart. But Daniels has been sidelined all season with a toe injury and Harris suffered a season-ending ankle injury in October, opening the door for Stingily to rush for 812 yards and nine touchdowns this season - second only to Lynch.

ABOUT TOLEDO (7-3, 5-1): The Rockets have been dealing with their own injuries as running back as David Fluellen, second in the MAC with 133.4 rushing
yards per game, has missed the last two contests with a leg injury and his status against Northern Illinois in uncertain. Fluellen has been replaced by freshman Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 186 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, his fourth straight game with more than 100 yards on the ground. Fluellen’s pass-catching ability is also missed as he’s third on the team with 25 receptions.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Huskies last six games after rushing for more than 200 yards in the previous game.
* Under i 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Rockets are 25-5 in MAC play over the past four years with three losses coming against Northern Illinois.

2. The Huskies have won 14 consecutive road games, the longest active streak in the FBS after Oregon's 19-game streak ended Nov. 7 against Stanford.

3. Northern Illinois CB Sean Evans, who started the first four games before suffering a knee injury, is expected to return against Toledo.

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The South Carolina Gamecocks have a big Week 14 state rivalry with Clemson looming but first a scheduled “walkthrough” against FCS Coastal Carolina Saturday afternoon. The Gamecocks are looking to make waves in the BCS, currently ranked No. 10 in the country, and have only one more chance to do so versus the Tigers. But don’t pass over Coastal Carolina just because they claim FCS status.

The Chanticleers are among the top small-conference schools this season and have an explosive offense, headlined by dual-threat QB Alex Ross. He’s one of the most accurate passers in the FCS, with only six INTS to 17 TDs, and can make plays with his legs when things break down. Books are being very generous with the points, making Coastal Carolina a 34.5-point road underdog against a South Carolina squad not wanting to show much before its clash with Clemson.

Letdown spot

The Oakland Raiders are already knocking on the door when it comes to their season-win total of 5.5 after stealing a 28-23 win in Houston Sunday – improving the Silver and Black to 4-6 on the year. Oakland got a surprise performance from backup QB Matt McGloin, who tossed for three touchdowns and 197 yards, sparking a QB controversy in the Bay Area. Starter Terrelle Pryor is on the mend from a knee injury and has Raiders head coach Dennis Allen faced with a tough decision.

Oakland, jacked up off that win as a 10.5-point underdog in Houston and scratching its head over who to start under center, hosts the Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon. Tennessee is in a foul mood after letting the Indianapolis Colts come from behind last Thursday. The Titans are a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home this season and could catch the Raiders riding high in Week 12.

Schedule spot

The Boston Celtics were the darlings of the NBA betting scene just a short week ago. But things have changed dramatically since their 5-0 ATS streak. Boston has dropped three straight games SU and ATS, including a loss to Charlotte, and plays four of the next five contests away from Beantown, starting with a trip to Houston Tuesday.

The Celtics make trips to San Antonio, Atlanta and Charlotte after that. And sandwiched in between those four road tilts is a “break” back home against the Indiana Pacers – the NBA’s top team. Boston is just 1-5 ATS on the road to start the schedule.

No. 20 Northern Illinois heads to Toledo Wednesday night
by Freddy Wander

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Northern Illinois -3

No. 20 Northern Illinois continues its quest for a perfect season on Wednesday, but will first need to defeat red-hot Toledo, winners of five straight.

The Huskies are creating a lot of noise in the BCS with their undefeated season and domination of the Mid-American Conference. They are ranked 16th in the BCS, and are coming off an impressive 48-27 win against Ball State, in which the game was tied going into the final quarter and NIU outscored the Cardinals 21-0 in the fourth. The Rockets will not roll over in this game though. Winners of their past five contests (4-1 ATS), they could still have a chance at the conference championship with a win. Toledo defeated Buffalo last week by a score of 51-41 with the teams combining for 1,152 yards of total offense. In last season’s game between these two programs, the Huskies took a 31-14 lead early in the fourth quarter but nearly allowed the Rockets to make a comeback, with a final score of 31-24. That meeting clinched a spot in the MAC championship game for the Huskies just as this one could this year. The Rockets are 12-5 SU (10-4 ATS) when facing NIU since 1992, with the average total of the game being 58.0 points. Toledo has yet to lose SU in five contests at home this season (4-1 ATS) and is averaging 46.2 PPG and 552.8 YPG in those games. HB David Fluellen (Achilles) has missed the Rockets' past two games and is questionable for Wednesday’s game.

Northern Illinois has not gone undefeated by luck, deploying a rushing attack which ranks 8th in the nation (303.8 YPG) and has scored 44.6 PPG (6th in FBS). QB Jordan Lynch has 1,273 rushing yards (8th in nation) on 6.6 YPC, and has 317 more rushing yards than the next highest quarterback. Lynch has the ability to throw the ball as well with 2,216 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He put together his best game through the air last week against Ball State going 26-for-32 (81.3%) for 345 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Lynch also added 123 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) and two touchdowns on the ground. Aiding Lynch in the ground game has been HB Cameron Stingily (812 rush yards, 9 TD) who has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his past five games played, but has only 86 yards on 15 carries (5.7 YPC) over the past two weeks. WR Da’Ron Brown leads the team in both receiving yards (689) and touchdowns (9) and is coming off his best game of the season when he gained 209 yards with 2 TD. S Jimmie Ward (64 tackles, 5 INT) and the rest of the NIU defense has held conference opponents to 21.2 PPG and has forced 22 turnovers (2.2 per game) on the season.

Toledo also uses the run game to defeat its opponents, ranking 14th in the nation with 247.3 rushing yards per game. The Rockets have been without their top running back, David Fluellen (1,067 rush yards, 10 TD), for the past two weeks, but he is probable to return from an Achilles injury for this matchup. If Fluellen is not effective, HB Kareem Hunt (672 yards, 6 TD) will take over. This is not such a bad option, as Hunt has rushed for 110+ yards and at least one touchdown over the past four games, totaling six scores. QB Terrance Owens has thrown for 1,837 yards (7.2 YPA), 13 TD and 6 INT this season, and has really elevated his game over the team’s recent five-game win streak, throwing 10 touchdowns and only one interception. WR Bernard Reedy has 736 receiving yards (13.4 avg.) with six touchdowns on the year, and is coming off his best performance to date with 149 receiving yards and 2 TD. DE Jayrone Elliot (61 tackles, 7 sacks) will do his best to help the Rockets' defense in stopping the high-paced NIU offense. Toledo has given up 27.7 PPG this season and has allowed 159.6 rushing YPG to its opponents.

WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

Brooklyn over *Charlotte by 4
The Nets are loaded with savvy veterans so they don't figure to lose against the
Bobcats, but Kemba Walker and Co. could exploit Brooklyn's lack of athleticism on
the perimeter.
BROOKLYN 96-92.

*Cleveland over Washington by 3
Washington isn't a good road team and is playing for the second consecutive night,
but until big men Anderson Varejao and Andrew Bynum are at 100 percent the
Cavaliers aren't worth backing as chalk. Cleveland was 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times
as home chalk through this past Thursday.
CLEVELAND 98-95.

Indiana over *New York by 6
The Pacers were giving up an NBA-low 85.3 points per game. Their physical front
line, anchored by 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert, can take advantage of the Knicks missing Tyson Chandler and lacking sufficient backcourt scoring.
INDIANA 92-86.

Miami over *Orlando by 6
The Magic play much better at home. Just ask the Hornets, Nets and Clippers. The
Magic defeated those three teams during their first three home games by an average of 16.3 points.
MIAMI 97-91.

*Philadelphia over Toronto by 3
Rudy Gay isn't shooting well, DeMar DeRozan remains inconsistent and center Jonas
Valanciunas has been disappointing. There has been nothing disappointing for the
76ers in going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS so far.
PHILADELPHIA 98-95.

*Atlanta over Detroit by 4
Quietly the Pistons have gone 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests through Nov.
10. It's homecoming for Josh Smith, who surely won't lack for motivation.
ATLANTA 101-97.

**PREFERRED
*Milwaukee over Portland by 10
The Bucks have won and covered the past two times hosting Portland and draw the
Trail Blazers, who are not known for their bench strength, playing on the road for the
fourth time in six days.
MILWAUKEE 100-90.

*Minnesota over Los Angeles Clippers by 5
This is the team's second meeting in nine days. The Clippers were leading the league
in scoring through the second weekend of this month, but ranked 28th in defense
yielding 106.3 points a game. Minnesota was giving up an average of six fewer points
per game.
MINNESOTA 109-104.

*New Orleans over Utah by 8
Just one week ago the team's met in Salt Lake City. The youthful Jazz are short of confidence off to the worst start of any team.
NEW ORLEANS 98-90.

*San Antonio over Boston by 16
Tony Parker should have plenty of room to maneuver against the Celtics' unimposing
front line and without injured point guard Rajon Rondo to bother him. San Antonio
was 36-15-2 ATS versus Eastern Conference foes through November 9.
SAN ANTONIO 104-88.

*Phoenix over Sacramento by 6
Sacramento just hosted the Suns last night. Phoenix was 3-0-1 ATS in its last four
home games through Nov. 9. The Suns should get a boost when starting point guard
Goran Dragic returns to the lineup from an ankle injury.
PHOENIX 104-98.

**PREFERRED
Houston over *Dallas by 12
Despite committing 23 turnovers, the Rockets still beat the Mavericks, 113-105, at
home on Nov. 1 in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score. The
Mavericks couldn't contain Dwight Howard on the boards nor match up against
James Harden.
HOUSTON 118-106.

*Golden State over Memphis by 3
The Warriors need to contain Memphis' strong front line something they didn't do in
a 108-90 road loss 11 days ago when the Grizzlies outscored them, 54-18, in the paint.
GOLDEN STATE 104-101.

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

**PREFERRED
Georgia Tech* over Dayton by 18
Tech head coach Brian Gregory invites his former team into his ACC digs. Dayton
needed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to beat IPFW, home, in their season-opener.
Gregory to self: ‘Say, I picked a good year to invite them over, huh?’
GEORGIA TECH, 70-52

Illinois-Chicago* over Northwestern by 1

SMU* over Texas State by 9

Xavier* over Miami-OH by 17

Wichita State over Tulsa* by 5

Valparaiso over Evansville* by 1

BYU* over Iowa State by 7
ISU isn’t the best defensive team around. Not by a longshot. A true road game against
an opponent that knows how to put the ball in the basket is not the best situation for
them.
BYU, 78-71.

Fresno State* over Cal Poly-SLO by 5

Pepperdine* over San Jose State by 12
After playing three nights in a row at DeKalb, IL, San Jose must go out on the road
again to face a stranger. And, they’re not a good team.
PEPPERDINE, 75-63.

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB N ILLINOIS at TOLEDO
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (N ILLINOIS) quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games
183-81 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.3% 0.0 units )
21-10 this year. ( 67.7% 0.0 units )

NBA

Hot teams
-- Bobcats are 4-1-1 against the spread on the road.
-- Pacers won nine of their first ten games (5-2 as F).
-- Miami won seven of last eight games, covered three of last four.
-- Hawks won/covered three of their four home games.
-- Portland won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers won four of their last five games. Minnesota won its last three home games, by 8-29-18 points.
-- Spurs won last seven games, covered three of last four.
-- Rockets won four of last five games, covered last three. Mavericks also won four of their last five games.
-- Memphis won its last three games, all on the road. Warriors won their last four games, with three of four by 11+ points.

Cold teams
-- Nets lost five of their last six games.
-- Cleveland lost five of its last seven games. Wizards lost their last four games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Knicks lost seven of their last nine games, five in row at home.
-- Magic lost four of their last five games.
-- Raptors lost six of their last eight games. 76ers lost seven of last nine.
-- Pistons lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost their last five games; they're 1-3 at home.
-- Jazz lost 11 of first 12 games, are 1-4-1 vs spread on road. Pelicans lost three of their last four games.
-- Celtics lost their last four games, scoring 88 ppg.
-- Kings lost seven of last nine games; they're 0-2 on road, losing by 11-13 points. Phoenix lost last three games by total of six points.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Brooklyn games went over the total; Charlotte's last four games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Toronto games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games stayed under total; four of last five Portland games went over.
-- Last four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Memphis-Golden State games went over.

Series records
-- Nets won last six games with Charlotte (4-2 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers won their last four games with Washington.
-- Indiana beat the Knicks in six games in LY's playoffs- they lost five of last six visits to Manhattan.
-- Miami won its last four games (3-1 vs spread) with Orlando.
-- 76ers won seven of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Pistons lost last 10 games in Atlanta (4-2-1 vs spread last seven).
-- Bucks won/covered their last four games with Milwaukee.
-- Clippers won their last six games with Minnesota (4-2 vs spread).
-- Jazz won last four games with New Orleans; underdogs covered nine of last eleven series games.
-- Spurs won last three games with Boston by 1-12-15 points.
-- Kings won last three games with Phoenix; they rallied from behind to nips the Suns 107-104 at home last night.
-- Mavericks won ten of last eleven games with Houston.
-- Grizzlies won their last ten games with Golden State.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Minnesota won seven of its last nine games.
-- Washington won seven of its last nine games.
-- Devils won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Senators lost three of their last four games.
-- Penguins lost four of their last six games.
-- Columbus lost nine of its last eleven games. Flames lost six of last seven.
-- Anaheim is home from an 0-4 road trip; they're 8-0 at home.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Ottawa games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Pittsburgh games.
-- Four of last five Calgary games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-0-3 in last nine New Jersey games.

Series records
-- Senators won their last four games with Minnesota.
-- Penguins won their last four games with Washington.
-- Blue Jackets won their last three visits to Calgary.
-- Devils won their last three games with Anaheim.

Chris justice college basketball

Wichita state -5

valprasio +5.5

Ben Burns

10* Mavs
10* Toledo
9* BYU

NCAA Football Game Picks

Northern Illinois at Toledo

The Huskies travel to Toledo tonight coming off a 48-27 win over Ball State and carrying a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Northern Illinois is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

NCAA Basketball Picks

American at Ohio State

The 3-0 Buckeyes host an Eagles team that is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Ohio State is the pick (-26) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by 35 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-26). Here are all of today's games.

Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at Washington

The Capitals host a Pittsburgh team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Washington is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

The Factsman

Wednesday CFB Video Pick

Northern Illinois-2.5