Service Plays Monday 11/25/13

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Today's NFL Picks

San Francisco at Washington

The 49ers look to bounce back from their 23-20 loss to New Orleans last weekend and build on their 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 games following a SU defeat. San Francisco is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

J Clifton

WASHINGTON + 6 MNF

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Monday, November 25

SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 7) - 11/25/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Monday, November 25

8:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco

NFL

Week 12

49ers (6-4) @ Redskins (3-7)—You get idea RGIII annoyed some teammates last week with comments that inferred Redskin coaches were getting outprepared by opponents; team that is falling out of contention at this time of year is a bad investment, and if they start sniping at each other, its lot worse. Redskins are 3-2 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’ve lost three of last four games, with only win in OT over Chargers, and are 2-2 at home. Niners lost last two games; they’ve been held to single digits in three of four losses; Redskins allowed 24+ points in their last six games. SF ran ball for 149+ yards in its last five wins, 115 or less in all four of its losses. Washington allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in each of last five games, which is poor, but can Kaepernick (5.9/3.4 last two weeks) exploit that weakness? 49ers are 10-3 in last 13 series games, winning four of last five played here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 11-5-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-6, 1-1 at home. Four of last five Washington games went over the total.

Monday Night Football betting: 49ers at Redskins

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+4.5, 47)

A pair of teams led by underachieving quarterbacks look to avoid a third consecutive loss when the Washington Redskins host the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Washington's Robert Griffin III and San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick burst onto the NFL scene a year ago and gave defenses fits but haven't enjoyed the same success this season. The 49ers are on the fringes of the NFC playoff picture, and the Redskins are in last place in the NFC East.

Kaepernick turned in another mediocre outing, statistically-speaking, in a 23-20 loss at New Orleans last week, but 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh doesn't understand the criticism of his quarterback. "I think he's doing a heck of a job," Harbaugh told reporters. "I guess I'd be puzzled to why people would think that. What's most important is what we see." Griffin's numbers also have dropped off as he returns from offseason knee surgery, and he came under fire this week for comments following last week's 24-16 loss at Philadelphia that seemed to deflect blame toward offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and the team's receivers.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened +4.5 was bet to +6 before being bet back down to +4.5. The Total opened at 49 and has been bet down to 47.

WEATHER: Temperature will be in the mid 30s with a 6 mph wind blowing across the field.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) - Washington (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = San Francisco -6.5

ABOUT THE 49ERS (6-4, 7-3 ATS): San Francisco isn't in panic mode yet, as its consecutive losses have come by a combined four points, unlike its clunkers in Weeks 2 and 3. The defense is still one of the best units in the league and has forced two or more turnovers in seven of 10 games. The lack of offensive production is cause for concern, though, with the 49ers averaging 173.5 total yards over the past two games.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-7, 3-7 ATS): Griffin's sophomore slump has been somewhat overstated considering Washington leads the league in rushing (155.2 yards per game) and ranks sixth in total offense (412.1). The bigger issue is on defense, as the Redskins rank 28th in total defense (389.9) and 30th in scoring (31.1). Washington has allowed 400 or more yards in six of 10 games including three of the last four.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0-2 ATS in the last six meetings.
* 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Redskins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight versus the NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in the Redskins in last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco has an 8-0 record when Kaepernick starts and has a rating of 100 or better, a mark he has achieved only three times this season.

2. Washington TE Jordan Reed, who leads NFL rookies with 45 catches, is listed as questionable after leaving last week's game with a concussion.

3. Griffin does not have a rushing touchdown and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry after rushing for seven scores and 6.8 yards per attempt last season.

Bank shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Nov. 18-24

Hottest ATS - Portland Trailblazers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The Blazers continued to take the league by storm this week, extending their winning streak to 10-straight games, which included 4-0 on a four game East coast road trip. The Blazers are not only the hottest team against the spread this week, but they now have the second-best record ATS in the NBA at 10-4. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard have been unstoppable for the Blazers during this run, Aldridge is scoring 22.3 points and 9.6 rebounds per game while Lillard is scoring 19.9 ppg to go along with 6.1 assists. The Blazers take on the slumping New York Knicks at home, before a short two-game road trip at Phoenix and the L.A. Lakers.

Coldest ATS - Brooklyn Nets (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Nets have now lost five games in a row dating back to Nov. 16. and now sit 3-10 SU for the season. This is not the season the Nets envisioned after acquiring Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce from the Boston Celtics in the offseason. The Nets rank 22nd in the league in scoring at 95.4 points per game and are 24th in points against at 103.0 ppg. This week, with both Brook Lopez and Deron Williams nursing ankle injuries, the Nets take on the surprisingly Atlantic division leading Toronto Raptors, the L.A. Lakers, Houston and Memphis.

Best Over play - San Antonio Spurs (3-0 SU, 3-0 O/U)

Last week's best Under play, pulled the old switch-a-roo on us and became this weeks best over play. The Spurs extended their own winning streak to 10 games, not just by playing their usual style of tenacious defense and efficient offense, they are also scoring at a very high clip. During their current streak the Spurs have scored more than 100 points six times and are shooting a ridiculous 49.3 percent from the field in that span. The Spurs take on New Orleans at before a big matchup against Western Conference contenders Oklahoma City. They close out the week at Orlando and at home versus Houston.

Best Under play - Washington Wizards (3-1 SU, 0-4 O/U)

After starting the season with two wins in their first nine games the Wizards have turned things around of late, thanks in large part to point guard John Wall turning up his game. In the past four-game stretch, Wall has averaged 24.3 points and 8.5 assists per game, but more importantly the Wizards playing much better defense. They are only giving up 94 points points per game in their past four compared to 104.6 in their previous nine. The week the Wizards take on the Lakers at home before a quick two-game Midwest road trip in Milwaukee and Indiana before ending the week back at home versus Atlanta.

Surveying the schedule:

The Chicago Bulls will have to soldier on through the remainder of the infamous Circus trip without the aid of former MVP Derrick Rose. Rose is out indefinitely with a torn meniscus in his right knee which he suffered Friday night at Portland. The Bulls started the extended road trip last Monday at Denver and still have visits at the L.A. Clippers, Utah, Detroit and Cleveland before returning home on Dec. 2.

Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Nov. 18 - Nov. 24.

Hot team

Montreal Canadiens (3-0 SU)

Saturday's 3-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins capped off a great week for the Canadiens. The Habs beat three strong teams this past week, including a 6-2 demolition of the Minnesota Wild. Goalie Carey Price has been excellent all season, posting a 2.05 GAA and .935 save percentage. If Montreal can find its goalscoring touch, which it may have done this week, teams atop the East better watch out. Road games in Buffalo and Washington start the week, before a Hockey Night in Canada showdown at home versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Cold team

Tampa Bay Lightning (0-3 SU)

The Lightning won their first two games without Steven Stamkos, but have dropped four-straight games since. Predictably, the team has struggled to light the lamp without their sniper. They managed just three goals in their three losses this week so an exceptional start to the campaign feels like a distant memory. It should be a tough week as the Lightning have games against a pair of hot teams (New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers) before a date with Sidney Crosby and Penguins Friday.

Best Over play

New York Islanders (3-0 O/U)

It hasn't been a particularly good stretch for Isles goalie Kevin Poulin. New York has dropped five of seven with Poulin between the pipes and gave up 14 goals in three games this past week. With an offense that boasts the severely-underrated John Tavares and sniper Thomas Vanek, scoring isn't a problem. But if they can't find consistency in net, Isles games will be in the cross hairs for Over bettors. Home games against the slumping Winnipeg Jets and Detroit Red Wings could see the trend continue this week.

Best Under play

New York Rangers (0-2-1 O/U)

It doesn't matter who is in net for the Broadway Blueshirts, Cam Talbot and Henrik Lundqvist are putting up sensational numbers. The team is 0-4-2 O/U in their last six games and Talbot has posted a pair of shutouts in that stretch. The Rangers are still struggling to score goals, ranking 28th in the league with 2.1 per game, so low-scoring lines are expected. The Rangers have a busy week with three games on the road (at Tampa Bay, at the Florida Panthers and at the Boston Bruins) before a home game against John Tortorella and the Vancouver Canucks Saturday.

Surveying the schedule

All of a sudden, the young Edmonton Oilers are hot and scoring goals for the fun of it. The Oilers hung a seven-spot on the dismal Columbus Blue Jackets and four apiece against the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers this past week. They've won three-straight games and could be the source of value this week with a home game against the Chicago Blackhawks and a date in Nashville against the Predators before a rematch against the Jackets Friday.

College football odds: Week 14 opening line report

Thanksgiving weekend and football make a great American tradition. On the college gridiron, it’s a time when the turkeys are on the table, not on your television screen, with myriad big matchups, including many rivalries.

Perhaps the most noteworthy contest is Saturday’s Iron Bowl, with high stakes in both the Southeastern Conference and the Bowl Championship Series standings.

Top-ranked Alabama (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) makes the short road trip to face archrival and sixth-ranked Auburn (10-1 SU), which is tied for third nationally at the betting window with a stout 9-2 ATS record.

The Tigers have won six in a row SU and seven in a row ATS, and they’re coming off a bye following the absolutely stunning late touchdown that secured a 43-38 home win over Georgia as a 3-point favorite Nov. 16. The Crimson Tide also ostensibly had a bye this weekend, taking on FCS outfit Chattanooga on Saturday and rolling 49-0, though that only earned them a push, as they were laying 49.

Speaking of 49-0, that’s the exact score by which ‘Bama basted Auburn last year. With that in mind, Peter Korner – founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club -- said while this year’s matchup looks great based on ranking and such a strong rivalry, it didn’t pencil out that way with his oddsmakers.

“It’s not a particularly good game. We all had Alabama between a 12 to 14-point favorite,” Korner said. “After seeing Oregon and Baylor fall this past week, we're pretty sure Alabama will be focused. We sent out Alabama -13. Offshores were at -10.5, but we had it higher before we saw their number and like it even better now. There is no way ‘Bama gets caught off guard.”

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-6)

It’s not exactly Texas-Texas A&M, a rivalry that went bye-bye when the Aggies bolted for the Southeastern Conference after the 2011 season. But if you’ve had your fill of the NFL on Thanksgiving day and want to skip the Steelers-Ravens that evening, this could be an entertaining contest.

Texas Tech (7-4, 5-6 ATS) is coming off a bye and has the nation’s No. 1 passing attack at 400.2 ypg, helping the Aggies to an average of 37.5 ppg (21st). But the Red Raiders have had the bottom fall out since winning their first seven games, going 0-4 SU and ATS while allowing 50.5 ppg.

Texas (7-3, 5-5 ATS) also is coming off a bye, after its six-game win streak – which probably saved coach Mack Brown’s job – was snapped in a 38-13 blowout home loss to Oklahoma State.

“We had an odd range of numbers – as low as Texas -2 up to Texas -8, which I had personally,” Korner said. “I sent out Texas -6. This game has meaning only to Texas, and I didn't see how Tech was going to be motivated in this spot. The Longhorns need the win. I'm glad to see our opener is a lot higher than the offshores, but I did notice early money on Tech. That seems like a really strange move. I only see this line coming back up.”

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan (+13.5)

Even if nothing is on the line, this game is always huge. In this case, the ramifications for Ohio State are huge.

The Buckeyes (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS) have a shot at squeezing into the BCS Championship Game if they can remain unbeaten. Michigan (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has no shot at reaching the Big Ten title game, but the Wolverines’ season would be deemed a full success if they beat the archrival Buckeyes.

Michigan is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine against Ohio State, winning 40-34 two years ago at the Big House but failing to cash as an 8.5-point chalk.

“Another double-digit favorite in which this plays into the favorite all the way,” Korner said. “Ohio State needs the game, while Michigan is playing for some obscure bowl game being played on a Tuesday night sometime in the future. There is no way Ohio State is distracted."

“Our range went from Ohio State -10.5 to -14.5, and we sent out -13.5. It looks like there was some early money on Michigan, but we're not going for that. Anyone hanging this line on the light side will pay for it come game time.”

UCLA Bruins at Southern California Trojans (-6)

Prior to this weekend, both these teams had a shot to reach the Pac-12 title game. But Arizona State’s victory over UCLA on Saturday knocked both the Bruins and USC out of contention, so they’ll play this one for pride.

Southern Cal (9-3, 6-6 ATS) has stunningly regained its form since firing Lane Kiffin, going on a 6-1 SU run (5-2 ATS), including a 47-29 victory at Colorado on Saturday as a 21-point favorite. UCLA (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) had won three in a row SU before the 38-33 loss to ASU as a 3-point home underdog.

“This is a good game, which we wouldn't have expected four weeks ago,” Korner said. “Four of my oddsmakers had this in the range of USC -3 to -5.5. I personally had -9. USC has been the nuts since their shakeup. I tempered my bad line to send out USC -6, while I stared at a -3.5 on the offshores. Both teams are having good seasons, but USC is winning games by an average of almost 17 points the past five contests. The only big game UCLA has had in the past five weeks was at home against Colorado. No big feat. I think this number climbs come game time.”

West Brom v Aston Villa: What bettors need to know

Round 12 of the Premier League fixture list comes to a close with West Brom hosting Aston Villa Monday. The fixture could prove to be an exciting one as both clubs will fight to get into the top half of the table.

West Brom v Aston Villa (+120, +240, +260)

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies have four points in their last two games, including a 2-2 draw against Chelsea, prior to the international break. They could receive a big offensive boost with the potential return of Nicolas Anelka and Scott Sinclair, both of whom missed the aforementioned Chelsea match.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, Billy Jones

Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains can sneak their way into the top 10 with a victory at the Hawthorns Monday, which would be quite a feat considering the Villains field one of the youngest XI's week in, week out. The club posted a big 2-0 win over Cardiff before the week off, but could be without influential midfielder Fabian Delph for this one. Villa has been surprisingly good away from home, collecting eight points in five away matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Fabian Delph, Gabriel Agbonlahor

2012-13 fixture result: West Brom 2, Aston Villa 2

Key betting note: Aston Villa has played under the 2.5 goal total in their last five Premier League matches.

EPL betting: Manchester City 7/4 after thrashing Spurs

Jesús Navas scored 13 seconds into the game and it was all downhill for Tottenham Hotspur from there.

Navas and Sergio Agüero each netted a pair of goals as Manchester City dismantled Spurs 6-0 at the Etihad Sunday.

The win moves the Citizens to 7/4 to win the Premier League and drops Spurs from 25/1 to 60/1.

Manchester United left Wales with a 2-2 draw versus Cardiff and sees their odds move to 13/2.

Here is a list of the updated Premier League odds, courtesy of the LVH Superbook.

MANCHESTER UNITED 13/2
MANCHESTER CITY 7/4
CHELSEA 7/2
ARSENAL 3/1
LIVERPOOL 7/1
TOTTENHAM 60/1
EVERTON 150/1
NEWCASTLE 1000/1
ASTON VILLA 2000/1
WEST BROM 2500/1
SOUTHAMPTON 200/1
SWANSEA CITY 1500/1
FULHAM 5000/1
WEST HAM 5000/1
SUNDERLAND 5000/1
STOKE CITY 3000/1
CARDIFF CITY 5000/1
NORWICH CITY 5000/1
HULL CITY 5000/1
CRYSTAL PALACE 9000/1

2Halves2Win (Went 3-2; 60% & +1.8 units this week in NFL):

49ers -5(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units)

Football Crusher
San Francisco 49ers + Washington Redskins OVER 47
(System Record: 39-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 39-35-1

Chris justice


La tech -12.5




san Diego -8.5

NBA

Hot teams
-- Bobcats won three of their last four games.
-- Pacers are 12-1 SU, covered five of last seven games.
-- Suns are 7-0 against spread on the road. Miami won its last six games, covering three of last four.
-- Rockets/Grizzlies both won four of their last five games.
-- Nuggets won five of their last seven games. Dallas won six of eight.
-- Pelicans won their last three games by 37-7-4 points, but they're 1-4 vs spread on road. San Antonio won its last ten games, covering five of last seven.
-- Portland won last ten games, covered four of last five.

Cold Teams
-- Celtics lost six of their last seven games.
-- Timberwolves lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost their last eight games (0-5 vs spread last five). Detroit lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Chicago lost its last three games, scoring 88 ppg. Jazz are 1-14 this season, losing their last six games (5-2 vs spread in last seven).
-- Knicks lost last five games, covered two of last ten.

Totals
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Phoemix games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Denver games went over the total.
-- Last five New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four New York games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Bobcats won three of last four games with Boston.
-- Minnesota lost last four trips to Indiana by 11-11-23-16 points.
-- Pistons won three of last four games with Milwaukee.
-- Suns lost their last six games with Miami (1-5 vs spread).
-- Grizzlies won three of last four games with Houston.
-- Nuggets won three of last four games with Dallas.
-- Spurs won 14 of last 17 games with New Orleans.
-- Bulls won their last six games with Utah (5-1 vs spread).
-- Knicks lost last three visits to Portland, losing by 1-15-28 points.