Service Plays Tuesday 11/26/13

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Tuesday's Champions League betting cheat sheet

Groups E, F, G and H are in action as UEFA Champions League resumes Tuesday. Chelsea and Basel will meet up in Switzerland and Dortmund host Napoli in what could prove to be the most important matches of the day.

Borussia Dortmund v Napoli (-163, +333, +475)

Why bet Dortmund: A loss and Dortmund is all but out of the competition, which would be unacceptable for Jürgen Klopp and his men. Dortmund has been uncharacteristically poor of late, coming off a very disappointing 3-0 loss to Bayern Munich in Bundesliga play. They will be thin at the back, however, as CB's Mats Hummels and Neven Subotic will miss out through injury.

Key players out/doubtful: Ilkay Gündogan, Marcel Schmelzer, Mats Hummels, Neven Subotic

Why bet Napoli: Even without star-playmaker Marek Hamsik, Napoli will be confident due to a 2-1 home win against Dortmund earlier in Champions League. A full three points here essentially sees the Serie A club through to the knockout stages of the competition. Despite having knocked off Dortmund previously, the Serie A club is enduring a poor run of form domestically, having dropped back-to-back efforts against Juventus and Parma.

Key players out/doubtful: Juan Zuñiga, Giandomenico Mesto, Marek Hamsik

Previous matchup result: Napoli 2, Dortmund 1

Key betting note: Five of Napoli's last six matches in Champions League have resulted in scorelines over the 2.5-goal total.

Basel v Chelsea (+375, +260, -118)

Why bet Basel: The Swiss side will be fighting for the European life because a loss, paired with a Schalke win over Bucharest, would knock them out. Basel posted a shock victory at Stamford Bridge in the first meeting between the two clubs and will look for the same end result Tuesday.

Key players out/doubtful: Marcelo Diaz, Behrang Safari

Why bet Chelsea: Revenge would be one reason. Getting back to enjoying consistent, winning form would be another. The Blues dropped big points to Newcastle in the Premier League on Nov. 2 and have a pair of wins and a draw in three matches since. A win in Switzerland and the Blues punch their ticket to the next round.

Key players out/doubtful: Marco van Ginkel, Fernando Torres, Michael Essien

Previous matchup result: Chelsea 1, Basel 2

Key betting note: Chelsea has scored at least three goals in their previous three Champions League matches.

Tuesday's other matches with odds:

Zenit v Atletico Madrid (+100, +260, +300)
Ajax v Barcelona (+550, +333, -182)
Arsenal v Marseille (-450, +600, +1400)
Celtic v AC Milan (+210, +230, +150)
FC Porto v FK Austria Vienna (-700, +800, +2200)
Steaua Bucharest v Schalke (+300, +250, +105)

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois: What bettors need to know

Western Michigan Broncos at Northern Illinois Huskies (-35)

Northern Illinois looks to stay alive in its hunt for a second straight Bowl Championship Series appearance when it hosts Western Michigan on Tuesday. The Huskies, who are 16th in the latest BCS rankings, need to leapfrog Fresno State in the standings to earn a berth. Northern Illinois has already clinched a spot in the Mid-American Conference title game for a fourth straight year.

Things have gone much differently for Western Michigan which hopes to play spoiler in its season finale. The Broncos have just one win on the season, a 31-30 decision at one-win Massachusetts. Other than that, it has been a dismal season as Western Michigan has been outscored by an average of more than three touchdowns and ranks tied for 108th in the nation in rushing (118.3 yards).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: Northern Illinois -34

ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN (1-10, 1-6 MAC): The Broncos haven't beaten the Huskies since opening the 2008 MAC season with a 29-26 victory. Wide receiver Corey Davis has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season as he is 87 yards away from becoming the fourth wide receiver in MAC history to reach 1,000 yards receiving in their rookie season. Dareyon Chance had a 29-yard scoring run in the Tigers' last loss, a 27-22 setback against Central Michigan.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (11-0, 7-0): The Huskies rank seventh nationally in scoring (43.7 points) behind the stellar play of dual-threat quarterback Jordan Lynch. Lynch, who is gaining Heisman acclaim, has thrown 21 touchdown passes while rushing for an additional 17. Lynch scored three times on the ground as Northern Illinois fended off a pesky upset bid by Toledo a week ago in a 35-17 victory.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Broncos are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight meetings in Northern Illinois.
* Huskies are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Northern Illinois has seven wins by double figures.

2. Western Michigan leads the series 23-15.

3. Northern Illinois lost to Florida State 31-10 in the Orange Bowl last season.

NFL Week 13 opening line report: Oddsmakers giving thanks
By JASON LOGAN

This Thanksgiving, Las Vegas oddsmakers are thankful for a relatively tight set of NFL games on the holiday Thursday.

Outside of the Dallas Cowboys being favored by 9.5 points at home to Oakland, the other two contests should stay within a touchdown, which is good news on a day when the turkey-stuffed public loves to pound the favorite and the Over.

“That’s the way it is anytime you see marquee schedules,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Everyone will have their separate wagers rolling into each other on Thanksgiving. But this year’s schedule presents a pretty good challenge to bettors.”

The biggest question on everyone’s mind heading into Thursday’s trio of games is the status of Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who has missed the last three games with a broken collarbone. Korner is advising his clients to keep the game off the board until more is known on Rodgers but says to expect a 7-point swing if the former MVP is ready to go.

“Without (Rodgers), I’d have to say Detroit by a touchdown,” Korner says of Thursday’s early game. “If he’s back, probably around a pick. Detroit was a ‘bet against’ team last week, with early money on Tampa Bay. We’ll see what happens with them with a short week.”

Korner expects the majority of the middle game action to come in strong on Dallas. Most shops are dealing the Cowboys as 9.5-point home favorites but Korner isn’t convinced books will want to go above the key number of 10.

“We’re wary of the Oakland-Dallas game. That’s the trouble game,” says Korner. “Oakland has come down with such a thud last week and Dallas is coming off a big win. All the action with be on Dallas.”

As for the night cap, Korner says books couldn’t be happier to have a rivalry like Pittsburgh-Baltimore split the action. This AFC North grudge match could have a ton of parlay action rolling into it depending on the outcome of the first two games.

“This is the game you want,” he says. “These types of games, anything can happen. The difference is pretty much the home field.”

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

With both of these AFC West powers coming off a loss, bettors have some tough terrain to scale in Week 13. Denver took the first meeting with Kansas City easily two weeks ago but playing in Arrowhead is a completely different scenario.

“These two are meeting again on such short notice that it is coming in around a pick,” says Korner. “There is a revenge factor for Kansas City but certainly the Chiefs need to redefine themselves and this is the game to do it.”

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Korner sent out this spread at Seattle -4 but agrees with the move many books have taken to Seahawks -6. New Orleans just hasn’t been the same team away from the Big Easy and heads to the toughest venue in football – CenturyLink Field – where Monday temperatures are expect to be around freezing with a chance of showers.

“That line plays into Seattle, not that the conditions and the home field aren’t noted,” he says. “New Orleans’ last game is going to be on people’s minds – scoring only 17 points on the road in Atlanta – and how different that scoring is between home and the road."

Packers' Rodgers 'slim to none' to play on Thanksgiving

Cheeseheads and Green Bay bettors alike were holding out hope that MVP QB Aaron Rodgers would be able to return to action this Thursday when the Packers head to Detroit to take on the Lions on Thanksgiving.

As reported by Dan Gantt of Pro Football talk, Aaron Rodgers wants to play this week, but Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters it would be a 'huge stretch' to think he would be sufficiently recovered from a broken collar bone to play the Lions on Thursday. Rodgers suffered the broken collar bone four weeks ago against Chicago.

McCarthy is leaning towards starting Matt Flynn at QB for the Packers (5-5-1 ATS) against the Lions (6-5 ATS), after solid relief work replacing Scott Tolzien against Minnesota this past Sunday.

Tuesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Nets at Raptors

Brooklyn: 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS
Toronto: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS

This is not the season that Nets' fans imagined after acquiring Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett from the Celtics. The veteran mega-team that was set to compete with Miami for the Eastern Conference title has lost 10 of its first 13 games, while point guard Deron Williams and center Brook Lopez have each missed time due to injuries. To make matters worse, the Nets have won just once away from the Barclays Center in eight tries, while covering only twice on the highway.

The Raptors are running away with the Atlantic Division even though they sit below .500 as the other four teams in the division have stumbled out of the gate. Toronto is seeking its first three-game winning streak of the season after knocking off Philadelphia and Washington. The Raps have covered six of their last eight games overall, but are a coin-flip at the Air Canada Center by splitting six home contests. These teams are meeting for the first time this season, as the Nets grabbed three of four matchups last season.

Lakers at Wizards

Los Angeles: 7-7 SU, 8-5-1 ATS
Washington: 5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS

The Lakers travel east for a three-game road trip after winning three straight contests to close out their homestand. Los Angeles beat Detroit and Golden State as an underdog, before knocking off Sacramento as a favorite on Sunday night. The Lakers haven't performed well away from Staples Center, posting a 1-4 SU/ATS record with all four losses coming by double-digits. L.A.'s defense has improved of late by allowing 99 points or less in four of the last five games.

The Wizards have quietly won three of their last four contests, including a 98-89 home victory over the downtrodden Knicks to finish off four games in five days. Washington's defense has settled in as the Wizards have gone 'under' the total in six of the last seven games. The Wizards own a 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS record against the Western Conference this season, but all four teams are currently sitting above the .500 mark.

Magic at Hawks

Orlando: 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS
Atlanta: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS

The Magic pulled off a few minor upsets to start the season, but Orlando has lost seven of its last eight games including four in a row. To make matters worse, the Magic has failed to win a game away from home, posting an 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS on the highway. All three covers on the road were all as double-digit underdogs, including Saturday's heartbreaking defeat at Miami, 101-99 as 13-point 'dogs. Orlando fell flat the following night in a 104-96 home setback to Phoenix as two-point 'chalk.'

The Hawks haven't lost consecutive games this season, coming off Saturday's 94-87 home defeat to the Celtics. Atlanta has done a fantastic job of bouncing back off a loss with a 4-0 SU/ATS record, including three of those victories at Philips Arena. Earlier this month, the Hawks downed the Magic, 104-94 to cash as 6 ½-point home favorites, the ninth straight win in the series for Atlanta. The totals are starting to drop on Atlanta, as the Hawks have hit the 'under' in five consecutive games.

Warriors at Pelicans

Golden State: 8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS
New Orleans: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS

The Warriors are going backwards at the moment with three consecutive losses, including Saturday's home defeat to red-hot Portland. Andre Iguodala suffered a hamstring injury in Friday's setback to the Lakers and sat out the Blazers' loss, as the swingman is out for Tuesday's contest. The Warriors will also be without center Andrew Bogut, who was suspended one game for an altercation in Saturday's loss. Golden State is in the midst of a 1-5 ATS stretch the last six contests, while dropping three of its past four games away from Oracle Arena.

The Pelicans are listed as an underdog for just the third time this season, as New Orleans returns home after playing with no rest on Monday at San Antonio. Home is where the heart is for the Pelicans, who have won four consecutive games in the Big Easy, while hitting the 'over' in each of the last three home contests. The Pelicans lost all four meetings with the Warriors last season, while Golden State has won each of the last four visits to New Orleans.

NCAA Football Game Picks

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois

The Huskies host Western Michigan tonight and look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 home games against the Broncos. Northern Illinois is the pick (-35) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 43. Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-35). Here are all of today's games.

Today's NBA Picks

LA Lakers at Washington

The Wizards host the Lakers tonight looking to build on their 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 5 head-to-head meetings. Washington is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Dallas

The Ducks look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games against the Stars. Anaheim is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

Football Crusher
Northen Illinois -34.5 over Western Mich
(System Record: 39-3, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 39-36-1

NCAA Basketball Picks

St. Louis vs. Wisconsin

The Badgers face the Billikens in the Cancun Challenge and look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games against Atlantic 10 opponents. Wisconsin is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Badgers favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's early games.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1134-857 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years College FB 62-38 this yr, NFL 36-25:

Free winner TUES W Vig -7

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Ducks +105

Weber State +1

NCAAF

Tuesday's game

Northern Illinois is 9-3 in last 12 games with Western Michigan, winning last four by average score of 42-20; Broncos lost five of last six visits to DeKalb, with four of five losses by 27+ points-- underdogs covered five of last seven series games. NIU has gained 566+ yards in last five games; they're 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-39-21 points. Western is 1-7 vs spread in its last eight games; they're 3-6 as an underdog this season, 3-2 on road- their last three games overall were decided by total of nine points. Huskies played Wednesday, so this is short week; Western has not played in ten days. Remember that NIU is trying to finish as high as possible in BCS ratings, so they'll run up the score, if they can.

Cappers Access

(CBB) St Louis +1.5
(CBB) Illinois -4

Madduxsport

Basketball
#522 - NCAAB - 10 units on Bowling Green -9.5

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Marshall* over Western Kentucky by 2

Western Michigan* over Oakland by 3

Indiana* over Evansville by 11

Valparaiso* over Central Florida by 4

**PREFERRED
Princeton* over George Mason by 11
Clown coach Paul Hewitt of George Mason, who teaches lousy defense in a true road
game against unusual style of opposing offense? Where do we sign up to be on board
against this?
PRINCETON, 69-58.

Illinois over UNLV* by 2
UNLV: Gored by Gauchos, now fried by Fighting Illini?
ILLINOIS, 70-68.

CANCUN CHALLENGE (Cancun, Mexico)
West Virginia over Old Dominion by 8

Wisconsin over Saint Louis by 3