Service Plays Tuesday 12/3/13

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GL!

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The Villanova Wildcats had fun in the sun this past weekend, shocking No. 2 Kansas and edging Iowa in overtime to win the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. The Wildcats narrowly avoided a massive letdown against the Hawkeyes in the championship game, overcoming a sloppy first half in which they committed 12 of their 19 turnovers. If it wasn’t for James Bell catching fire from beyond the arc, Villanova would have been a one-hit wonder this weekend.

It will be a shock to the system when the Wildcats return home. Not only does the bitter cold of Philadelphia sting extra when you’ve been soaking in the tropical heat but Villanova could come crashing back to earth against two tough opponents this week. The Wildcats face off against Big 5 rivals Penn Wednesday and St. Joseph’s Saturday. Be careful of overinflated Villanova’s bubble bursting this week.

Lookahead spot

The Houston Rockets are living up to the preseason hype, jumping out to a 13-5 record and winning five straight games heading into Monday’s matchup with Utah. The Rockets peaked with a 112-106 win over the division-leading Spurs Saturday and can make another huge statement in the Western Conference with a win over Golden State Friday.

But before Houston butts heads with the Warriors, it hosts the NBA’s best bet Wednesday night. The Phoenix Suns bring their 12-4-1 ATS mark (as of Monday) to the Honda Center, coming off a game in Memphis the night before. The Suns have hung tough with the best in the West, covering on the road in Oklahoma City, Denver and San Antonio this year, and enter the week as 8-1 ATS away from home. Phoenix went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in its four meetings with Houston last season.

Schedule spot

Some teams see the NFL Thanksgiving games as a burden, throwing a mid-week wrench into a team’s schedule so deep into the season. Others, like the Dallas Cowboys, have learned to cope with the Turkey Day tasks and benefit from them greatly in Week 14 of the season. Since scoring a comeback win over the Raiders last Thursday, the Cowboys will have 10 full days between games before taking the field in Chicago Monday night.

This extended break is huge for Dallas at this point in the season. Not only does the 10-day hiatus act as a mini bye week, giving the coaching staff added time to fine tune its gameplan for Monday, but it also allows the Cowboys to lick their many wounds. Dallas is expected to return top LB Sean Lee from a hamstring injury, and could get CB Morris Claiborne and return weapon Dwayne Harris back as well.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge betting cheat sheet

Illinois Fighting Illini at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1)

Rayvonte Rice sat out last season after transferring from Drake to Illinois, but the junior guard has made up for lost time in sparking the Illini to a 7-0 start. Rice averaged 16.1 points two years ago for Drake, and has led the Illini in scoring four times in seven games. The Illini have been tough when the opposition shoots from long-range, ranking 11th nationally in 3-point defense at 34.9 percent.

Georgia Tech returns home after a pair of disappointing losses to Mississippi and St. John’s in the Barclays Center Classic, in which the Yellow Jackets were unable to put two good halves together. Solomon Poole came off the bench to score 24 points in the loss to Mississippi, but no other Yellow Jackets’ player scored more than 11 points in either of Georgia Tech’s two defeats this weekend.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Over is 7-0 in Yellow Jackets last seven vs. Big Ten.
* Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.

Indiana Hoosiers at Syracuse Orange (-6)

Indiana entered the 2013 NCAA Tournament as an offensive juggernaut capable of winning it all, but Syracuse’s 2-3 zone proved to be too much for the top overall seed to overcome. The Hoosiers are much younger this time around, but rebounded from their only loss of the season with last Tuesday’s rout of Evansville. This game will mark the first time these teams have played on a campus site in six all-time meetings. The Hoosiers lead the nation in rebound margin at plus-18 and are fifth in field-goal percentage defense (35.1).

The Orange improved to 9-0 all-time in Maui, thanks in large part to tournament MVP C.J. Fair, who scored 24 points in the title game. Tyler Ennis averaged 17 points, six assists and four steals while committing only two turnovers during the event. Syracuse has started no worse than 9-0 over the previous five seasons and is 4-1 all-time against Indiana.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-0-1 in Orange last four overall.
* Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Orange are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Pittsburgh Panthers (-14)

Penn State guard D.J. Newbill hasn’t scored less than 15 points in a game this season and is 20-for-32 from the field in the last two games, including 6-for-11 from 3-point range. The loss to Mississippi in Saturday's championship game at the Barclays Center Classic ended a five-game winning streak for the Nittany Lions, their longest in five years. Penn State began the week with the third-fewest turnovers in Division I, giving the ball away just under nine times a game.

Pittsburgh’s go-to guy is Lamar Patterson, who is coming off the best week of his five-year career after averaging 21.7 points and shooting 56.8 percent from the floor in three games. Patterson needs 86 points, 53 rebounds and 89 assists to become the third player in Pittsburgh history to record 1,000 points, 500 rebounds and 400 assists in a career.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten.

Michigan Wolverines at Duke Blue Devils (-7)

With the Wolverine's leading scorer Nik Stauskas sidelined, Zak Irvin recorded a career-high 24 points against Coppin State and was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week. Michigan is 3-9 all-time in Cameron Indoor Stadium and has not won at the venue since 1996.

Although Duke is 21-8 all-time against the Wolverines, the Blue Devils look to rebound after falling to 0-2 against ranked foes following Friday’s loss to No. 2 Arizona in the NIT Season Tip-Off title game. Jabari Parker, who saw his seven-game streak of scoring 20 points or more snapped with 19 against the Wildcats, became only the second player over the last 10 years (Texas’ Kevin Durant in 2006) to open his college career with such a run.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Over is 13-3 in Wolverines last 16 vs. Atlantic Coast.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Iowa Hawkeyes (-9.5)

Notre Dame gets its first taste of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge with a visit to Carver-Hawkeye Arena to face No. 24 Iowa. One of the keys to Notre Dame's success going forward is the play of junior swingman Pat Connaughton, who has had periods of inactivity this season. Against Army, he took just three shots, but he followed that up with his third career double-double with 18 points and 10 boards against Cornell Sunday.

After playing three games in three days in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, then a longer than expected trip home, there's a school of thought that Iowa could be run down for the matchup with Notre Dame. But Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery doesn't see it that way. “These kids are in great shape,” McCaffery told the Iowa City-Press Citizen. “It's something we prepared for. These guys have been through those kinds of trips.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Hawkeyes last five home games.
* Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last eight overall.

Florida State Seminoles at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-3)

Florida State has lost two of its last three games, including a heartbreaking 67-66 loss to No. 12 Florida on Nov. 29. Boris Bojanovsky scored a season-high 14 points on 6-of-6 shooting in the loss to Florida. Miller leads the team in average minutes (28.7), points per game (15.1), free throw percentage (94.3) and total assists (24).

The Golden Gophers bounced back from two consecutive defeats in the Maui Invitational tournament with an 83-68 victory over Chaminade to secure seventh place in the competition. Minnesota will be back in the friendly confines of Williams Arena and hopes to make it two straight wins over the Seminoles after beating them 77-68 in Tallahassee in the 2012 edition of the challenge.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten.
* Golden Gophers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.

Crystal Palace v West Ham: What bettors need to know

December is a busy month in the Barclays Premier League and we see a flurry of midweek activity right off the bat in the first week of the month. Wednesday sees a generous portion of nine games on the board, but first, Tuesday brings one game involving a pair of struggling clubs.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on Tuesday's lone fixture.

Crystal Palace v West Ham (+220, +230, +145)

Why bet Crystal Palace: Palace couldn't parlay a draw and a win into consistent football as it struggled to a 1-0 defeat to Norwich on the weekend. The Eagles and new manager Tony Pulis will look to reverse their fortunes as they have posted just one victory in their last 10 matches. Having home field on their side, coupled with West Ham's poor form away from Upton Park, and the Eagles could be poised to grab some points.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Yannick Bolasie, Jerome Thomas, Patrick McCarthy

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers finally grabbed a victory on the weekend - their first since defeating Spurs 3-0 back on Oct. 6. The club has struggled to score goals but were able to put three past an awful Fulham side in their last game. The Coles, Carlton and Joe, provided the second and third goals respectively, and if the Hammers can put goals on the board, their solid defending is capable of taking care of the rest.

Key players out/doubtful: Mladen Petric, Andy Carroll, Ricardo Vaz Te, Winston Reid

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: The Hammers have scored just four goals in their six matches away from home.

Where the action is: "Action has been siding more with the away side at prices from +160 down to the current +145, the draw sees more action than a home win. Given the lack of first choice striker in recent games for West Ham, and lack of goals overall for Palace, goal scorer markets are very quiet, however the Total Goals market sees many siding with a high scoring affair. Regardless the stats, over 2.5 at +120 is a very popular play."

Capping the calendar: December's best/worst NFL bets
By MARC LAWRENCE

And down the stretch they come.

With December upon us, the 2013 NFL season heads in to the final quarter of the season and with it our final take on monthly teams trends.

Please note that all trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

HOME TEAMS

• Good: Whether Seattle had a good team or a not so good team, they always are tough to beat at home. This is true in December as well at 31-15 ATS. Besides the big Monday night battle with New Orleans, their final two games of the season are at Century Link Field against Arizona and St. Louis.

• Keep an eye on (Good): Aaron Rodgers is expected to return and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy has stated his team needs a 4-0 finish to have a shot at the playoffs. At home this month, the Packers are 30-16 ATS and Atlanta along with Pittsburgh will visit, giving them two shots at covers.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Large group to keep an eye on here. St. Louis is 16-26 ATS and will have NFC South teams New Orleans and Tampa Bay in weeks 15-16.

The New York Jets slate of Miami, Oakland and Cleveland is not necessarily foreboding, but the offense is sure to have coal left in the stocking of the quarterback position. Gang Green is 16-30 ATS in New Jersey.

New Orleans is 18-32 ATS at home and at least part of this in recent years is they have wrapped up the division late in the season and are playing backups. Before Drew Brees and Sean Payton, they just stunk.

Oakland has been a play against home team no matter the month for years and facing Kansas City and Denver is not likely to improve their chances.

AWAY TEAMS

• Good: The hottest team in the NFL, Carolina, has been road warriors for years and is a sensational 24-12 ATS in the final month of the year. The Panthers have a HUGE game at New Orleans on Dec. 8 and end the season at hapless Atlanta.

• Bad: This flies under the radar unless you are sharp handicapper or a Bears fan. Chicago is Grinch-like 11-32 ATS in road games, stealing money from its followers and makes trips to Cleveland and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks. Wonder what those in Whoville will be thinking?

Before Jim Harbaugh arrived, San Francisco was ripe play against material late in the season, accounting for their 16-32 ATS figure. They will go to Tampa Bay and Arizona to improve that number.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Like cold weather in the Midwest and East this time of year, Dallas struggling on the road fits the season. The Cowboys are 19-32 ATS away and will be in the Windy City for a Monday night affair and at the hated Redskins just before Christmas, trying to win a division title.

FAVORITES

• Bad: The weather might be nice in South Florida, but the Miami Dolphins are scarier than room full of Santa Clauses when doling out points. The Fins are a miserable 20-41 ATS as favs. Two contests to possibly be careful of the Dolphins are Week 16 at Buffalo and the season finale versus the Jets.

• Keep an eye on (Good): Green Bay is a fantastic 44-23 in December and if Rodgers stays healthy, they will be favored in their two home games. But with how unsightly the defense has become, little chance they will be a favorite at Dallas or Chicago.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): We won’t know for sure, but Dallas could be favored as many as three times this month and conceivably four if the public likes them against the Bears. At 18-33 ATS, it might be wise to find another team to consider for this role. Note: Tony Romo is 4-14 ATS as a favorite during December in his NFL career.

The New York Jets will be handing out points to Oakland and Cleveland, but with their quarterback situation and a 14-26 ATS mark, this might be harder to swallow than Aunt Margaret’s fruitcake.

UNDERDOGS

• Good: With Carolina being such a good wager on the road, naturally they would be a Play On underdog. However, with this year’s team, fewer opportunities will be available and just the Dec. 8th matchup at New Orleans should place them in this role.

Besides Carolina, Seattle also fits the bill and they are 39-19 ATS on the receiving end of digits and they might see only one or two points at San Francisco on the second Sunday of the month.

• Bad: With how bad the Chicago Bears defense is in 2013, they should be a frequent underdog in December and could well add onto an abysmal 16-34 ATS mark.

• Keep an eye on (Good): New England is 21-11 ATS in the underdog role and only a trip Baltimore could place them in that position this month.

The New York Giants are notorious closers and are a sparkling 31-18 ATS as a pooch. This year’s team lacks the same qualities of more recent vintage and they might be hard-pressed to match previous levels at San Diego, vs. Seattle and at Detroit in the middle games of the month.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): St. Louis in November showed signs of improvement, but with three division road games and hosting New Orleans, hard to imagine they will improve as underdogs at 19-33 ATS.

DIVISION

• Good: No team in any month can match Carolina’s 23-8 ATS record versus division opponents and they will have four shots against their rivals to close 2013.

New England is also very good at 28-14 ATS, being the dominant team for more than a decade in the AFC East. The Patriots will be at Miami on the 15th and host Buffalo in the final game of the season.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Starting the month as part of a large group of 5-6 teams with a chance to be a wild card club, Miami will play in division four times and with how the Jets and Buffalo are playing, the Dolphins could make a move. They will have to overcome the ghosts of December past with a 16-31 ATS mark.

NFL line watch: Titans backers should act fast
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Tennessee Titans (+13.5) at Denver Broncos

If you like the Titans to keep this one close, then I'd recommend jumping on this line as fast as possible. While you can still get a 13.5 at 5Dimes as of printing, for the most part 12 is the predominating number across the board. It's likely to drop even lower.

Tennessee is coming off a hard-fought 22-14 loss in Indianapolis last week and catches a somewhat complacent home side coming off its second victory of the season over division rival Kansas City. As good as Denver is, there is no question that this sets up as a natural "letdown/trap" game for the Broncos, with a contest vs. division rival San Diego next week.

While the Titans have struggled for bettors at home this year, they've been a non-stop profit buffet on the road all season, going a near-perfect 5-1 ATS so far. Expect this line to continue to drop as the week wares on.

Spread to wait on

St. Louis Rams (+6) at Arizona Cardinals

Divisional contests at this time of year are always important. If you think the Rams can bounce back from their 23-13 setback at San Francisco last week and hand the Cardinals a second-straight loss, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kick-off before getting involved with this one.

This line opened at 6 and while that is pretty much the predominating number across the board as of printing, there is a 6.5 (Pinnacle) and even a 7 (5Dimes) available right now as well. I think this number could go even higher. Bettors are jumping on Arizona as it looks to bounce back from its first loss in four games and to avenge a 27-24 setback in St. Louis in Week 1.

With two straight on the road, including a game in Seattle on December 22nd, this contest takes on added importance for the home side. Expect this line to continue to climb as we get closer to kickoff.

Total to watch

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (50.5)

Once again we look to the Denver Broncos for this week's total to watch. Denver has seen the total go 10-2 this year, 5-1 at home and 5-1 on the road.

As mentioned above, the Broncos most recently beat the Chiefs for a second time in the last three weeks, a 35-28 barn-burner, the total sailing above the posted number of 49.5 in that one.This total opened at 50.5, but is already starting to drop, with 50's and even a 49.5 on the board as of printing (5Dimes).

Tennessee has seen the total go 2-3-1 on the road so far this year. If you're planning no playing the "under", consider getting involved as soon as possible.

Alex Smart

CBB-
10* Illinois+1
9* Massacheusetts-6
10* IPFW-1
10* Northern Iowa+1
9* Utah+10
9* Michigan+7

NBA

Hot teams
-- Nuggets won last six games, covered three of last four.
-- Miami won its last ten games, covered six of last eight.
-- Suns covered eight of their nine road games.
-- Thunder won last seven games, covered six of last eight.

Cold Teams
-- Philly lost four in row, eight of last nine games. Magic lost six of their last eight games.
-- Bucks are 3-13 this season, but 2-0 against Boston, which lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Nets lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Pistons lost five of their seven road games (3-3 AU).
-- Memphis lost its last four home games.
-- Dallas lost four of its last five games. Bobcats lost three of last four games, are 6-1-1 vs spread on road.
-- Kings lost last four games; they're 2-8 vs spread at home.
-- Warriors lost five of their last seven games. Toronto also lost five of last seven games; they're 5-2 vs spread on road.

Totals
-- Five of last six Orlando-Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Buck-Celtic games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Denver road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Detroit games went over the total; six of last eight Miami games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in Bobcats' last ten games.
-- Seven of last ten Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Toronto games went over the total.

Series records
-- 76ers lost six of last seven games with Orlando.
-- Celtics lost five of last six games against Milwaukee.
-- Nets lost six of their last eight games with Denver.
-- Pistons lost nine of last ten games with Miami (5-4 vs spread last 9).
-- Suns lost three of last four visits to Memphis.
-- Mavericks won eight of last nine vs Charlotte, but Bobcats are 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to Dallas.
-- Kings lost 14 of last 16 games with Oklahoma City, but covered three of last four.
-- Warriors won seven of last eight games with Toronto, which lost last four visits to Oakland by 6-12-38-7 points.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Sharks won their last five games, scoring 20 goals.
-- Penguins won six of their last eight games.
-- Chicago won its last six games, allowing ten goals.
-- Oilers won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Toronto lost five of its last six games.
-- Islanders lost last six games, outscored 25-11.
-- Carolina lost six of its last eight games. Washington lost three of last four on road.
-- Columbus lost 12 of its last 17 games. Lightning lost five of last seven.
-- Senators lost six of their last eight games. Florida lost four of last five.
-- Dallas Stars lost four of their last five games.
-- Vancouver lost seven of its last ten games. Predators lost three of last four home games.
-- Phoenix lost four of its last five games.
-- Ducks lost seven of their last ten games. Kings lost four of last five.

Totals
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six San Jose games.
-- Six of last seven Islander-Penguin games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Carolina-Washington games stayed under.
-- Last four Columbus-Lightning games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Ottawa games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Chicago games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Nashville games.
-- Eight of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Anaheim games went over the total.

Series records
-- Sharks won five of last six games with Toronto.
-- Islanders lost nine of last twelve games with Pittsburgh.
-- Washington won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Lightning won last three games with Columbus; home side won six of seven in series.
-- Senators won 12 of last 14 games with Florida.
-- Blackhawks won their last six games with Dallas
-- Canucks won 10 of last 14 games with Nashville.
-- Coyotes won 11 of last 14 games with Edmonton.
-- Kings won seven of last ten games against Anaheim.

The Sports Nostradamus

CBB
Indiana
Georgia Tech
Belmont

LA Syndicate

CBB
BYU
Colorado (ML)
UCLA

NBA
Over Thunder
Over Warriors

Chicago Syndicate

NBA
76ers
Over Pistons

CBB
Georgia Tech
Duke
Minnesota
Belmont

Today's NBA Picks

Denver at Brooklyn

The Nets host Denver tonight and look to take advantage of the Nuggets 4-7 ATS record in their last 11 games as road favorites of 3 1/2; to 6 points. Brooklyn is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Tampa Bay at Columbus

The Blue Jackets come into the contest with a 10-14-3 record and face a Tampa Bay team that is 10-1 in its last 11 games versus a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

J Clifton
ILLINOIS -1
COLORADO - 2 1/2
EAST MICH + 6
N TEXAS +18
UTAH +10
SYRACUSE -6
UCLA - 11

NCAA Basketball Picks

Michigan at Duke

The Wolverines travel to Duke tonight to face a Blue Devils team that is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a 6 1/2 to 9 point favorite at Cameron Indoor. Michigan is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1137-861 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years College FB 62-38 this yr,NFL 38-30:

Free winner tues: Iowa -10

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

IPFW -1