Service Plays Wednesday 12/4/13

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ACC/Big Ten Challenge betting cheat sheet: Day 2

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes (-10)

Ohio State passed every test in November and looks to continue raising its game when talented Maryland visits on Wednesday as part of the Big Ten/ACC challenge. The third-ranked Buckeyes won six games by an average of 21.2, including a 17-point triumph at Marquette, with a balanced offense. Maryland, which returns several players from last season's 25-win team, dropped a one-point decision to No. 14 Connecticut and suffered a home loss to Oregon State before winning its last four.

Senior point guard Aaron Craft will be a key as Ohio State meets the Terrapins for the first time since 1985. Craft, who owns the school’s all-time steals record and is 18 shy of becoming the Buckeyes’ top assist man, will be tested by a defense that allowed 32.3 shooting the last four games. Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz has recorded a double-double in his last two games for Maryland and will play Ohio State for the seventh time.

TRENDS:

* Maryland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.
* Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last five versus the ACC.
* Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.

Wisconsin Badgers at Virginia Cavaliers (-3.5)

Wisconsin may not have the most talented team in the country, but the ninth-ranked Badgers are proving that a little bit of chemistry can go a long way. Off to their best start in 20 years, the Badgers look to extend their undefeated run when they visit Virginia in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Wednesday. "We get along off the court really well. We're all best friends," said junior guard Josh Gasser. "When we're on the court, it's just fun for us. We're playing together and when you've got a group of unselfish guys who really want to win - and have common goals - good things can happen."

Wisconsin already has a strong resume that includes victories over Florida, Notre Dame, St. Louis and West Virginia. A win over Virginia would be another notch in the Badgers' belt, as the Cavaliers enter this matchup on a six-game winning streak and sporting a defense that has allowed fewer than 60 points six times in eight games. Virginia won the Corpus Christi Challenge with an 83-63 victory over Missouri State on Saturday despite trailing 11-3 early on, prompting coach Tony Bennett to comment afterward, "I thought we responded after a very sluggish start."

TRENDS:

* Wisconsin is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games versus the ACC.
* Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Virginia's last seven games following an ATS win.

Northwestern Wildcats at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-8.5)

Northwestern could be without one of its best players Wednesday night when the Wildcats visit North Carolina State as part of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. Drew Crawford, a fifth year-swingman, sat out Saturday’s loss to UCLA with a sore back and then missed Sunday’s workout. Crawford, second on the team in scoring at 14.3 points and tops in rebounding at 6.9, reportedly had a sore back heading into the Las Vegas Invitational and then felt a sharp pain while diving for a loose ball in Thursday’s loss to Missouri, limiting him to two points in 13 minutes on 1-for-6 shooting and then forcing him out of Saturday’s game.

The area the Wildcats could be hurting the most if Crawford is unable to play is rebounding. Jordan Vandenberg, a 7-1 center from Australia, missed the first four North Carolina State games with a sprained ankle, but has totaled 21 points and 18 rebounds in the two games since his return. Then there’s T.J. Warren, a 6-foot-8 forward for the Wolfpack who’s averaging 22.7 points and 7.3 rebounds following back-to-back 30-point games with a combined 20 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Northwestern is 1-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
* North Carolina State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.
* Under is 9-2 in North Carolina State's last 11 games overall.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Michigan State Spartans (-9)

Michigan State will begin its third week as the top-ranked team in the nation when it hosts No. 25 North Carolina on Wednesday night as part of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. The Tar Heels already have one victory over a top five opponent this season, knocking off then-No. 2 Louisville on Nov. 24 to end its school-record 21-game winning streak, but they suffered their second major upset this season when they were defeated Sunday at Alabama-Birmingham, dropping nine spots in this week’s rankings, the biggest movement of any team in the top 25.

The Spartans played without leading scorer Gary Harris in their blowout victory Friday against Mount St. Mary’s as he rested a sore ankle, but the 6-foor-4 guard is expected to play against North Carolina. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo also sent a message by keeping Keith Appling, Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson out of the starting lineup because they showed up late to a class. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine took advantage of the extra playing time and scored 15 points apiece, but they’ll likely be back in their reserve roles against the Tar Heels.

TRENDS:

* North Carolina is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Boston College Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers (Pick)

Matt Painter hopes to see more consistency from his Purdue Boilermakers when they host Boston College on Wednesday for the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. "I've never been with a team that can show such promise against quality opponents and then in the other half lose their focus," Painter said in his Tuesday teleconference. "It is a positive that ... you show that you can be successful. It's also a negative in terms of when things don't go your way, you're not able to right the ship and show more consistency." The Boilermakers have alternated good and bad halves during a 1-2 stretch while the Eagles enter the game with back-to-back wins.

Purdue has won four straight games in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, matching Illinois for the longest active win streak. The Boilermakers are 6-6 overall in the event while Boston College is 6-1, its only loss to Penn State in 2011. The Eagles are 0-2 all-time against Purdue but haven't played the Boilermakers since 2008.
TRENDS:

* Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Boston College's last six games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Purdue's last five games overall.

Miami Hurricanes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5)

Two teams beginning to adjust after a big turnover on their rosters meet when Miami (Fla.) visits Nebraska on Wednesday as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Nebraska has five newcomers in its regular rotation and won its last two games after losing to unbeaten Massachusetts and Alabama-Birmingham, who defeated North Carolina recently. The Hurricanes return one player that averaged more than two points and come in off two victories, including an impressive effort against Arizona State.

Coach Jim Larranaga called Miami’s performance against Arizona State in a 60-57 win Sunday the best it has put forth on both ends of the court. Rion Brown leads the balanced Hurricanes in scoring (12.4) and Miami will have to continue its improvement on the other end against a capable Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers boast three players scoring at least 12 points per game and averaged 36.4 off the bench the last five games.

TRENDS:

* Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Nebraska is 7-1-1 in its last nine home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.

Barclays Premier League: Wednesday's betting cheat sheet

Midweek action in the Premier League resumes Wednesday with nine games on the board, highlighted by a potentially fantastic matchup as Everton travels to face Manchester United.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about some of the action coming in on Wednesday's hotter fixtures.

Arsenal v Hull (-450, +600, +1400)

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners have rebounded from the loss to Man United with back-to-back wins, including a 3-0 victory away at Cardiff on the weekend. Midfielder Aaron Ramsey has elevated his game to 'player of the year' caliber and is a standout on a club full of standouts.

Key players out/doubtful: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski, Bacary Sagna

Why bet Hull: The Tigers are coming off a massive 3-1 win over Liverpool at the weekend. That said, they play their best football at home and nabbing any kind of points will be difficult at the Emirates.

Key players out/doubtful: Curtis Davies, Sone Aluko, Stephen Quinn

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Arsenal has been winning at half time and full time in their previous five games at the Emirates Stadium.


Liverpool v Norwich (-350, +500, +1100)

Why bet Liverpool: The aforementioned loss to Hull last weekend should provide enough ammo for Liverpool to come out and play inspired football at Anfield. They are third-best in the Premier League at home and have won three-straight matches in front of home supporters.

Key players out/doubtful: Kolo Touré, Daniel Sturridge, José Enrique

Why bet Norwich: The Canaries have potentially turned the corner on the dreadful start to the season. They've won two of three overall and prized-acquisition Gary Hooper netted the winner on the weekend - just his second goal of the season.

Key players out/doubtful: Ricky van Wolfswinkel, Robert Snodgrass, Elliott Bennett, Anthony Pilkington

2012-13 fixture result: Liverpool 5, Norwich 0

Key betting note: Liverpool has scored at least three goals in its last three matches at Anfield.


Manchester United v Everton (-133, +280, +425)

Why bet Manchester United: A slow start has been forgotten in Manchester as the Red Devils have not lost a match since Sept. 28. Wayne Rooney is playing some of the best football of his career and tallied two goals in the 2-2 draw against Spurs last weekend.

Key players out/doubtful: Phil Jones, Darren Fletcher, Michael Carrick

Why bet Everton: Roberto Martinez has replaced David Moyes and it has been a seemless transition in the blue-half of Liverpool. The Toffees have the least amount of losses (one) in the league and have three wins and three draws in their last six. When striker Romelu Lukaku is on his A-game, he has his way with any back-four in the league, making Everton a contender day in, day out.

Key players out/doubtful: Leighton Baines, Darron Gibson, Arouna Koné

2012-13 fixture result: Man United 2, Everton 0

Key betting note: United is unbeaten in 27 of its last 30 matches in all competitions against Everton.

Where the action is: "Action so far is much more about the home team, but there are backers for the Draw and an Everton win. Depending on the team news, this game will see a lot of action after they are announced, and if RVP is in, the price will definitely sway to United. The most popular play for Goalscorers is on Wayne Rooney to Score Anytime at +162."


Southampton v Aston Villa (-143, +280, +475)

Why bet Southampton: A brilliant start to the campaign could come crashing down Wednesday if the Saints don't earn a point (at least) against Villa. Southampton has lost back-to-back matches and are spiraling toward the bottom 10 in the table. The Saints must resort to their defensive ways as they've been outscored 5-1 in their previous two matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Morgan Schneiderlin, Artur Boruc, Gastón Ramírez, Daniel Fox

Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains, slowly climbing out of the bottom half of the table, are unbeaten in their last four matches away from home and have one win and three draws in their last four matches overall. Striker Christian Benteke has not scored in his last seven and is due for a goalscoring outburst at any moment.

Key players out/doubtful: Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia

2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 4, Villa 1

Key betting note: The Saints are 4-0-0 in their last four home matches.


Stoke v Cardiff (+115, +240, +280)

Why bet Stoke: Stoke's home field advantage will play a big factor in Wenesday's match against Cardiff. The Potters have allowed just three goals at the Brittania this season, while the Welsh outfit has scored just four away from home.

Key players out/doubtful: Marko Arnautovic, Robert Huth

Why bet Cardiff: Cardiff is coming off a tough 3-0 loss to Arsenal on the weekend and manager Malky McKay is feeling the pressure. The Bluebirds must get a result away at Stoke for McKay's sake.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Stoke has just one win in its last 10 matches in the league.


Sunderland v Chelsea (+550, +350, -188)

Why bet Sunderland: As poor as the Black Cats have been this season, they are capable of pulling off a big upset at the Stadium of Light. Both of their wins have come on their home pitch - a 2-1 win over Newcastle and a 1-0 win over Manchester City.

Key players out/doubtful: Carlos Cuéllar

Why bet Chelsea: A big win on the weekend has the Blues firmly in second place in the table on 27 points. The squad is deep and loaded with talent, enabling them to not lose a beat during these weeks with three matches. Players like Willian, Ba and Juan Mata can come in to replace the likes of Oscar, Fernando Torres and Schurrle and the side doesn't lose quality in the slightest.

Key players out/doubtful: David Luiz, Oscar, Marco van Ginkel

2012-13 fixture result: Sunderland 1, Chelsea 3

Key betting note: Chelsea has beaten Sunderland in 16 of the last 17 meetings (all competitions).


Swansea v Newcastle (+115, +250, +260)

Why bet Swansea: Without Michu in the lineup, it's hard to get behind this team. But, in the three games which the Spaniard has missed, Swansea has won, drawn and lost. Not a bad result to be fair. The Swans are coming off a bad defeat to Man City, so a return to the friendly confines of the Liberty Stadium will be welcomed.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Wilfried Bony, Angel Rangel, Garry Monk

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies could be the hottest side in England. They've won four straight Premier League matches and new signing Loïc Remy is playing as good as anyone. The French goalscorer has eight goals in his last nine matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor

2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 1, Newcastle 0

Key betting note: Five of Newcastle's six away matches have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

Where the action is: "This game seems to stand out as badly priced. The action is pretty split overall, but I expect the prices to look different come game time tomorrow. The price on Newcastle has shortened from +275 to +260, but with numerous tipsters giving Newcastle as a value play, I can only see this one going towards them and Swansea's price drifting. The Total Goals market sees mainly over play at -125 over 2.5. Goalscorer markets are largely seeing action on Loic Remy - +200 to score anytime - with Swansea only having Alvaro Vazquez as a lone striker."


Fulham v Tottenham (+480, +290, -150)

Why bet Fulham: Because Martin Jol is mercifully out and Rene Meulensteen is in as Fulham boss after a five-match losing skid that involved some of the most disinterested football you could ever see from a top-flight club. There's nowhere to go but up for this club flirting with relegation.

Key players out/doubtful: Hugo Rodallega, Brede Hangeland, Matthew Briggs

Why bet Tottenham: It was a difficult loss to stomach for Tottenham on the weekend, but the club played infintely better than the performance they churned out against Man City. Roberto Soldado is still struggling from open play, but Spurs will take goals from anybody - as evidenced by contributions from CDM Sandro and RB Kyle Walker in the 2-2 draw to United.

Key players out/doubtful: Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Danny Rose

2012-13 fixture result: Fulham 0, Tottenham 3

Key betting note: Fulham and Tottenham have combined to go over the 2.5 total in their last four meetings at Craven Cottage.


West Brom v Manchester City (+500, +320, -163)

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies have been punching above their weight for most of the season, but have been brought down to earth a little bit in recent outings. They have just two points in their last three matches and will need to play their best football of the season at the Hawthorns against the red-hot Citizens.

Key players out/doubtful: Ben Foster, George Thorne

Why bet Manchester City: Because it looks like City can score five goals any time they want to. They may have only won three of the last four matches in the Premier League, but their goalscoring is unreal right now. In the previous four matches, they've outscored their opponents 16-1.

Key players out/doubtful: Stevan Jovetic, Matija Nastasic, David Silva, Jack Rodwell

2012-13 fixture result: West Brom 1, Man City 2

Key betting note: Eight of Manchester City's last nine games have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

Five huge injuries impacting the NBA odds

Heading into the second month of the NBA season, it’s no surprise that the injury bug has begun to bite. From Derrick Rose to the most recent injury of Anthony Davis, injuries have been a huge talking point. Here is a look at five injuries affecting betting lines this December.

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

Worth to spread: 3 to 4 points

Rose was on the track to lift the Bulls to their highest level since the Jordan era in the Windy City, prior to multiple knee injuries. With Rose struggling to start the season, before tearing his meniscus, the Bulls were coming up short against the spread, going 5-6 ATS. Since Rose was ruled out for the year, Chicago is just 1-4 ATS. Expect more struggles and less respect from linemakers in December, Something that might increase value.

Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans

Worth to spread: 1 to 2 points

The recent loss of Anthony Davis may just have as big of an effect as any big-name loss of the NBA season. The rebuilding Pelicans will miss Davis due to their lack of veteran replacements to step in place of the 2012 top draft pick. New Orleans is currently 7-9-1 ATS but, at 9-8 overall and sinking fast in the West, there is value in picking against the Pelicans this month. A triple OT win against the Bulls Monday may give the Pelicans hope without Davis, however.

Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets

Worth to spread: 2 to 3 points

Like the Bulls, the Brooklyn Nets are a team that has whimpered out of the gate while missing their point guard, going just 3-5 ATS with Williams nursing an ankle injury. Brooklyn is 5-12 SU and is only slightly better ATS at 6-11. Most of the Nets’problems stem from new faces and a first-year coach Jason Kidd. On a team loaded with veteran talent, the Nets could be turning things around sooner than later. Brooklyn is a 4.5-point underdog against Denver at home Wednesday.

Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies

Worth to the spread: 1 to 1.5 points

The Spanish post presence has been the cornerstone of the Grizzlies for the past couple of seasons and without him the Grizzlies have been struggling, going 1-3 ATS since Gasol went down with a sprained knee. Starting the season 5-10-1 ATS, the Grizzlies are still 8-8 in the win/loss column. Once the lines start to adjust for the absence of Gasol, expect that ATS record to improve.

Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks

Worth to the spread: 1 to 1.5 points

Tyson Chandler is nearing a return from his early-season leg injury – and just in time. Things have fallen apart for the Knicks without their center. With Andrea Bargnani having to play serious minutes in Chandler's absence, New York is just 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS. However, things weren’t great even with the Knicks’ shot blocker in the paint, with N.Y. going just 1-3 ATS before Chandler’s injury. Bettors would be wise to stay away from the Knicks at all cost, or at least until Chandler is 100 percent healthy.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Pittsburgh (-13 1/2) on Tuesday and likes Michigan State on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1415 sirignanos.

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Valparaiso over Ball State* by 9

William & Mary* over Richmond by 1

Ohio State* over Maryland by 8

**PREFERRED
Wisconsin over *Virginia by 9
Who beat the Badgers at Kohl Center last season? Virginia did. The refs in these
“Made-for-TV Big Ten vs. ACC” games are often neutral, as they were last season
when John Higgins’s crew (Missouri Valley and Big 12) worked the game. So, it’s not
as bad a true roadie as it normally is. Revenge! Wisconsin is more comfortable in its
offense now than it was last year, when they were turning it over too much early.
WISCONSIN, 68-59.

George Washington* over Rutgers by 6

George Mason* over South Florida by 1

Wake Forest* over Tulane by 10

Toledo* over Detroit by 5

Northeastern* over Harvard by 1

Drexel* over Cleveland State by 16
Bruiser’s defense-and-rebounding is the kind of style that kills Cleveland State’s style
when they play on the road.
DREXEL, 69-53.

North Carolina State* over Northwestern by 10

Louisiana Tech* over Louisiana-Lafayette by 12

SMU over Illinois-Chicago* by 8

Villanova* over Penn by 20

Texas A&M* over Houston by 9

Temple* over St. Joseph’s by 2

Michigan State* over North Carolina by 12
Something about this matchup suggests that the Tar Heels won’t be able to get out and run like they prefer to do. Or, that Michigan State can actually do it better than North Carolina can right now, kind of like when Sparty’s Big Ten cousin Indiana ran them out of a neutral building last year.
MICHIGAN STATE, 84-72.

Purdue* over Boston College by 1

Nebraska* over Miami-FL by 2

Pepperdine* over CS Fullerton by 1

The Sports Nostradamus

CBB
Nebraska -4
Evansville pk

LA Syndicate

(CBB)
Wisconsin
SMU
Houston
CS Fullerton
Southern Mississippi
Evansville

Cappers Access

Ohio St -10
Wisconsin +3
Michigan St -9

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Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Red Wings -135

Valporaiso -3.5

NCAA Basketball Picks

North Carolina at Michigan State

The Tar Heels travel to East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that is 34-9 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Michigan State is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-9). Here are all of today's games.

Today's NBA Picks

Oklahoma City at Portland

The Thunder face a Portland team that is coming off a 106-102 win over Indiana and is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games after scoring 105 points or more in the previous game. Portland is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Trail Blazers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Montreal at New Jersey

The Canadiens look to follow up Monday night's 3-2 win over the Devils and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Montreal is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

J. Clifton

Iona -18
Richmond -3
Moorhead state +9 1/2
Detroit +8

NHL

Wednesday, December 4

Hot teams
-- Canadiens won six of their last seven games.
-- Detroit won its last four games, outscoring foes 18-4.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost four of their last six games.
-- Flyers lost four of their last five road games.
-- Flames lost seven of their last ten games. Phoenix lost four of last five.

Totals
-- Under is 6-3-2 in New Jersey home games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Philly games.
-- Coyotes lost their last three visits to Calgary.

Series records
-- Devils lost three of last four games with Montreal.
-- Home team won last three Philly-Detroit games.
-- Six of last seven Phoenix games went over the total.

NBA

Wednesday, December 4

Hot teams
-- Nuggets won their last seven games.
-- Clippers won four of their last five games.
-- Rockets won/covered five of their last six games.
-- Pistons won four of their last six games.
-- Pelicans won six of their last eight games.
-- Pacers won seven of their last eight games; they're 7-2 vs spread on road this season. Utah won three of last four after a 1-14 start.
-- Spurs won 13 of last 15 games, covered one of last four.
-- Portland won 13 of its last 14 games. Thunder won their last eight games, covered four of last six.

Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers lost five of their last six games.
-- Hawks lost five of their last six games.
-- Suns lost last two games by 8-19 points, but they're 8-2 vs spread on the road.
-- Bucks lost 11 of last 12 games, are 2-6 vs spread at home.
-- Dallas lost four of last six games (0-5 vs spread in last five).
-- Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Clipper games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Utah games went over the total.
-- Seven of Spurs' last eight games went over the total.
-- Last four Thunder-Portland games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Nuggets won six of last seven games with Cleveland.
-- Clippers lost their last four visits to Atlanta.
-- Suns lost four of their last five visits to Houston.
-- Pistons won four of last five games with Milwaukee.
-- Pelicans lost six of their last eight games with Dallas.
-- Pacers lost their last four visits to Utah.
-- Minnesota is actually 4-3 in its last seven games against the Spurs.
-- Thunder won last seven games with Portland (6-0-1 vs spread).