(I have no opinion on this article. Simply posting it for others to read as it is paid-material)
[h=1]How to bet over/unders[/h][h=3]A primer on betting totals, along with some Week 14 system plays[/h]By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
For the majority of the 2013 NFL season, we've analyzed archived betting data in order to find historically profitable trends and develop winning betting systems. We've mainly focused on betting point spreads, but also touched on betting totals (also known as over/unders) in our most recent article.
When wagering on totals, bettors are not taking specific teams as they do with point spreads, but are instead betting on the total number of points scored in a game. For example, the total for Monday's game between the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks closed at 48.5 at Pinnacle. Seattle won the game by a score of 34-7, meaning 41 total points were scored. All bets on "under" 48.5 were winners while bettors who took the "over" lost their wagers.
This example describes the outcome of a bet on a full-game total, but there are other ways to bet over/unders for a specific game. Below is a betting primer for over/unders, examples of a couple profitable systems and a couple over/under picks for Week 14.
First-half totals
When wagering on first-half totals, bettors focus on what the score will be at halftime. Returning to our example from "Monday Night Football," the first-half total closed at 24 at Pinnacle. Seattle led 27-7 at the half, meaning the 34 total points scored easily covered the 24 needed for a winning over wager.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Interestingly enough, anyone who took the over in just the first half won their bet, while the full-game line actually went under the total.
Second half-totals
Second-half (also called halftime) totals only relate to points scored in the second half of a game. While full-game and first-half totals are posted prior to kickoff and can be bet until a game's actual start time, second-half totals are available only while a game is at halftime.
Sportsbooks open these wagers as soon as the second quarter ends, and bettors have until the third quarter starts to place bets. Because books have such a small window to post second-half lines, some bettors look for scenarios where the halftime score isn't indicative of the play on the field. They find value by placing wagers based on an expected second-half "correction."
Monday's second half total closed at 23.5, so bettors who expected the high scoring from the first half to continue were burned when only seven points were scored over the final two quarters.
Key numbers when betting totals
When betting point spreads, it's extremely important to understand the concept of key numbers and how they affect line value. Because NFL teams score in multiples of threes (field goals) and sevens (touchdowns) most often, shopping to get on or off three and seven can be the difference between winning and losing a bet.
There also are key numbers that bettors should be mindful of when looking at totals. We analyzed our database of NFL closing lines and found that since 2003, the most frequent numbers for total points scored were 37 (4.25 percent of all games), 44 (4.12 percent) and 41 (4.07 percent). The chart below shows our analysis of key numbers in more detail:
<!-- photo wide photo -->
<CITE>Sports Insights</CITE>
<!-- end wide photo -->Looking ahead at NFL Week 14 lines, the total for Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers game is currently 41 at Pinnacle. However, a quick scan of the sports betting marketplace shows a couple of sportsbooks at 41.5. Because we know 4.07 percent of all games land on 41, bettors interested in taking the under in this game should be sure to shop around and take under 41.5. Conversely, bettors liking the over should ensure they get it at 41.
Totals betting strategy
As weekly readers of this column know, the underlying theme of our analysis is to apply a contrarian approach to sports betting. In short, we look for overreactions in the sports betting market due to recent results or small sample sizes, then take advantage by buying back shaded or inflated lines. In terms of point spreads, the easiest way to implement this is to simply track which side the general public is betting, then take the other side. This strategy has been extremely profitable since 2003 and was highlighted in our Week 7 article for Insider.
Because so much money from public, or recreational, bettors hits the NFL point-spread market each week, fading (or betting against) popular teams is a very solid strategy. However, the general public doesn't bet on totals as often, meaning there are fewer situations where one-sided money solely creates betting value. As a result, we've found that focusing on betting market myths, as opposed to relying simply on betting percentages, improves results.
In fact, our Week 12 Insider article used the mainstream idea that cold weather produces lower scoring to find valuable over/under betting opportunities. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we've also found that games this late in the season (specifically games 12-16) tend to go over the total in matchups between teams with winning percentages of .500 or better. Looking at this week's slate of matchups, there are two games that fit both of these systems.
[h=3]Week 14 system plays[/h]
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 43.5)
Cincinnati is expecting cold temperatures and potential snow this weekend, so this total could drop even more throughout the week. This is also a matchup between two teams well over .500, giving us another trend pointing toward the over as a solid play Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (Over 49.5)
The forecast in Chicago is calling for a kickoff temperature of 24 degrees, easily making this game a match for our cold weather system. The Bears (6-6) and Cowboys (7-5) have been very good "over teams" throughout the season and are clearly offering value to over/under bettors on "Monday Night Football."
[h=1]How to bet over/unders[/h][h=3]A primer on betting totals, along with some Week 14 system plays[/h]By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
For the majority of the 2013 NFL season, we've analyzed archived betting data in order to find historically profitable trends and develop winning betting systems. We've mainly focused on betting point spreads, but also touched on betting totals (also known as over/unders) in our most recent article.
When wagering on totals, bettors are not taking specific teams as they do with point spreads, but are instead betting on the total number of points scored in a game. For example, the total for Monday's game between the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks closed at 48.5 at Pinnacle. Seattle won the game by a score of 34-7, meaning 41 total points were scored. All bets on "under" 48.5 were winners while bettors who took the "over" lost their wagers.
This example describes the outcome of a bet on a full-game total, but there are other ways to bet over/unders for a specific game. Below is a betting primer for over/unders, examples of a couple profitable systems and a couple over/under picks for Week 14.
First-half totals
When wagering on first-half totals, bettors focus on what the score will be at halftime. Returning to our example from "Monday Night Football," the first-half total closed at 24 at Pinnacle. Seattle led 27-7 at the half, meaning the 34 total points scored easily covered the 24 needed for a winning over wager.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Interestingly enough, anyone who took the over in just the first half won their bet, while the full-game line actually went under the total.
Second half-totals
Second-half (also called halftime) totals only relate to points scored in the second half of a game. While full-game and first-half totals are posted prior to kickoff and can be bet until a game's actual start time, second-half totals are available only while a game is at halftime.
Sportsbooks open these wagers as soon as the second quarter ends, and bettors have until the third quarter starts to place bets. Because books have such a small window to post second-half lines, some bettors look for scenarios where the halftime score isn't indicative of the play on the field. They find value by placing wagers based on an expected second-half "correction."
Monday's second half total closed at 23.5, so bettors who expected the high scoring from the first half to continue were burned when only seven points were scored over the final two quarters.
Key numbers when betting totals
When betting point spreads, it's extremely important to understand the concept of key numbers and how they affect line value. Because NFL teams score in multiples of threes (field goals) and sevens (touchdowns) most often, shopping to get on or off three and seven can be the difference between winning and losing a bet.
There also are key numbers that bettors should be mindful of when looking at totals. We analyzed our database of NFL closing lines and found that since 2003, the most frequent numbers for total points scored were 37 (4.25 percent of all games), 44 (4.12 percent) and 41 (4.07 percent). The chart below shows our analysis of key numbers in more detail:
<!-- photo wide photo -->
<!-- end wide photo -->Looking ahead at NFL Week 14 lines, the total for Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers game is currently 41 at Pinnacle. However, a quick scan of the sports betting marketplace shows a couple of sportsbooks at 41.5. Because we know 4.07 percent of all games land on 41, bettors interested in taking the under in this game should be sure to shop around and take under 41.5. Conversely, bettors liking the over should ensure they get it at 41.
Totals betting strategy
As weekly readers of this column know, the underlying theme of our analysis is to apply a contrarian approach to sports betting. In short, we look for overreactions in the sports betting market due to recent results or small sample sizes, then take advantage by buying back shaded or inflated lines. In terms of point spreads, the easiest way to implement this is to simply track which side the general public is betting, then take the other side. This strategy has been extremely profitable since 2003 and was highlighted in our Week 7 article for Insider.
Because so much money from public, or recreational, bettors hits the NFL point-spread market each week, fading (or betting against) popular teams is a very solid strategy. However, the general public doesn't bet on totals as often, meaning there are fewer situations where one-sided money solely creates betting value. As a result, we've found that focusing on betting market myths, as opposed to relying simply on betting percentages, improves results.
In fact, our Week 12 Insider article used the mainstream idea that cold weather produces lower scoring to find valuable over/under betting opportunities. Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we've also found that games this late in the season (specifically games 12-16) tend to go over the total in matchups between teams with winning percentages of .500 or better. Looking at this week's slate of matchups, there are two games that fit both of these systems.
[h=3]Week 14 system plays[/h]
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 43.5)
Cincinnati is expecting cold temperatures and potential snow this weekend, so this total could drop even more throughout the week. This is also a matchup between two teams well over .500, giving us another trend pointing toward the over as a solid play Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (Over 49.5)
The forecast in Chicago is calling for a kickoff temperature of 24 degrees, easily making this game a match for our cold weather system. The Bears (6-6) and Cowboys (7-5) have been very good "over teams" throughout the season and are clearly offering value to over/under bettors on "Monday Night Football."
