Service Plays Thursday 12/5/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Houston at Jacksonville

The Jaguars host a Houston team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

NCAA Football Game Picks

Louisville at Cincinnati

The Bearcats host a Louisville team that is coming off a 24-17 win over Memphis and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.

Two for Tuesday December 03, 2013 3:00 AM by GT Staff


2 for Tuesday by Richard Saber


1) Louisville -3½ vs. Cincinnati (NCAA fb)


The Bearcats have won six straight and are looking to avenge last year’s heartbreaking 34-31 loss at Louisville. Always fun seeing Teddy Bridgewater, but Cincy will be his River Kwai. CINCY.


2) Louisville vs. Cincinnati (51 total)


Pushing this “2 for Tuesday” to Thursday; it’s so good and we need a change in luck. Cardinals defense allowing less than 11 points in last four games. Plus the offense is struggling. UNDER.


Richard Saber: Last week 0-2 ATS; 2013 record: 47-45.

The Sports Nostradamus

Louisville -3 -120

Chicago Syndicate

NFL Thursday Night Total of the Year

Texans/Jaguars Over 43

Maddux Sports

Texans -3

Louisville at Cincinnati: What bettors need to know

Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats (+3.5, 51)

Cincinnati looks to keep its faint BCS bowl hopes alive Thursday when the No. 23 Bearcats host 16th-ranked Louisville, which has recorded back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history. Cincinnati's hopes of receiving the American Athletic Conference’s automatic bowl berth hinges on a win over Louisville and having Southern Methodist defeat Central Florida on Saturday. If that happens, the league’s bid will go to whichever team between Cincinnati and Central Florida is ranked higher in the final BCS standings.

Louisville appears headed for the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 28 after having its BCS dreams dashed with a 38-35 loss to Central Florida on Oct. 18. The Cardinals have won four straight since the disappointing loss, and are eager to maintain control of the Keg of Nails rivalry trophy. “We’ll walk into a sellout and a hostile environment,” Louisville coach Charlie Strong said. “We need to control their crowd with our defense. We can't allow them to get out and have a fast start."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and winds blowing NNW crossfield at 7 mph.

LINE: Louisville opened -3.5 and has remained steady. The total opened as high as 51.5 and dropped to 51 points.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (10-1, 6-1 American Athletic Conference, 4-7 ATS): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been named one of 10 finalists for the Manning Award after throwing for 3,268 yards and 25 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. Louisville's defense, ranked second in the country while allowing 242.5 yards per game, forced its 24th turnover in a 24-17 victory over Memphis on Nov. 23. The unit is led by linebacker Preston Brown (team-high 83 tackles) and defensive end Marcus Smith, who leads the Cardinals with 12.5 sacks.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-2, 6-1, 6-5 ATS): The Bearcats are bowl-eligible for the seventh time in eight years and carry a six-game winning streak into Thursday’s showdown. Quarterback Brendon Kay recorded his fourth 300-yard passing game of the season Nov. 23, when Cincinnati posted 573 yards of total offense in a 24-17 victory at Houston. Defensive end Silverberry Mouhon has 8.5 sacks and linebacker Nick Temple has 11.0 tackles for a loss to lead the Bearcats, who rank eighth nationally in total defense at 302.4 yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Cincinnati.
* Favorite is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Louisville starting safety Calvin Pryor is expected to return Thursday after missing one game due to suspension for violating a team rule.

2. Cincinnati leads the series 30-22-1, but Louisville won last year’s contest 34-31 in overtime.

3. Louisville has outscored its opponents 82-6 in the first quarter.

NFL Thursday Night Football betting: Texans at Jaguars

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 43)

The Houston Texans' franchise-record losing streak is up to 10 games, and even Thursday's trip to Jacksonville no longer seems like an easy win for the defending AFC South champions. The Texans let one slip away Sunday, falling 34-31 to visiting New England after leading by 10 at halftime and being up by three in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville rallied for a 32-28 win at Cleveland last week, its third win in the last four games after dropping eight straight to start the season.

While the Texans are playing their way into contention for the top pick in next year's draft - they own the league's worst record at 2-10 - the Jaguars' chances of picking first are fading, as they're one of four teams at 3-9. Jacksonville has yet to win in front of its home crowd but has three straight games to try and change that, with Buffalo and Tennessee visiting the next two weeks. "We don't look ahead much, but I said, 'We have a great opportunity with three (home) games in a row,' " Jaguars coach Gus Bradley told the team's website. "It doesn't make it any more important than an away game, but it is special to play at home."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 60s with a 14 percent chance of rain and winds blowing SE from corner to corner at 5 mph.

LINE: Houston opened at -2.5 and has been bet up to the key number of -3. The total has jumped to 43.5 at some markets.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+6.0) - Jaguars (+6.5) + Home Field (-3.0) = Jaguars -2.5

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-10, 3-9 ATS): Houston did a lot of things right against the Patriots, including rushing for a franchise-record four touchdowns and scoring TDs on all three of its trips to the red zone. Quarterback Case Keenum has played fairly well despite being winless in six starts, passing for 1,433 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and the ground game continues to produce even with Arian Foster on injured reserve following back surgery. Statistically, the Texans should be better than their 2-10 record - they rank 10th in total offense and third in total defense - but a minus-12 turnover margin contributes to their ranking 29th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (3-9, 4-8 ATS): Jacksonville aims for its first three-game winning streak since 2010 as the league's last-ranked offense has shown signs of life recently. Chad Henne has taken over the starting quarterback job for the remainder of the season and led the Jaguars on an 80-yard drive for the winning score against the Browns. The defense still ranks 30th in scoring and 25th in total yards but turned in a dominant performance in a 13-6 win at Houston two weeks ago.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jacksonville has recorded eight takeaways in the last four games, matching the total from its first eight contests.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson has 49 career 100-yard receiving games and has caught a pass in 113 consecutive contests.

3. The Jaguars have topped 100 yards rushing in two straight games after failing to do so in their first 10.

NBA TNT doubleheader: Knicks at Nets, Heat at Bulls

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets (-1, 189)

When the 2013-14 NBA schedule was released months ago, an early December meeting between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks looked like a sure bet to be a battle between two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Instead, the Knicks will look to snap a nine-game slide when they visit the disappointing Nets on Thursday. Brooklyn is fighting through a series of injuries and turmoil on the coaching staff while dropping eight of its last 10.

New York is just one loss away from matching the worst record in the NBA, and star Carmelo Anthony is not happy about it. “We are the laughingstock of the league right now,” he told reporters. “It’s nothing to hide. We are.” The Nets would be the laughingstock if not for the Knicks and are hoping to snap a five-game home losing streak on Thursday.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Knicks (-2.7) - Nets (-2.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Nets +2.8

ABOUT THE KNICKS (3-13, 4-12 ATS): New York is without Tyson Chandler (broken leg) and is getting little from anyone other than Anthony. Coach Mike Woodson does not believe his players have quit on him and likes the way his team looks in practice. “Right now I think the spirits are still high,” Woodson told ESPN radio in New York. “Practice was spirited (on Wednesday). I think our guys are committed. They haven’t quit.” Anthony did not sound positively spirited when he told reporters, “Do I like being laughed at? Hell no. I don’t like that feeling.”

ABOUT THE NETS (5-13, 6-12 ATS): Brooklyn coach Jason Kidd played for the Knicks last season when the team won 54 games to take the Atlantic Division but is now wearing a suit on the sidelines and making some tough decisions about his staff, including demoting veteran coach Lawrence Frank. That move did not help much on Tuesday, as the Nets were blown out 111-87 in Denver with the former top assistant off the bench. Brooklyn is without Paul Pierce (broken hand), Deron Williams (ankle), Andrei Kirilenko (back) and Jason Terry (knee) while Kevin Garnett is averaging a career low in scoring (6.5 points) and Brook Lopez is seeing constant double teams.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Knicks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Brooklyn.
* Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. New York rookie SG Tim Hardaway Jr. is 7-for-11 from 3-point range in the last two games.

2. The teams split the four meetings last season, with the margin of victory an average of 6.8 points.

3. Brooklyn G Joe Johnson is averaging 24 points on 17-for-30 shooting over the last two contests.

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (+4.5, 189)

A meeting between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls generally produces some sizzle, whether or not Derrick Rose is involved. But Rose’s latest injury has sent the Bulls into a tailspin, and they will be trying to win for just the second time in eight games when they host the Heat on Thursday. Miami had a 10-game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday and is opening up a four-game trip at Chicago that finishes with a stop at East-leading Indiana.

The Bulls remained one of the strongest defensive teams in the league with Rose out for the 2012-13 season but are struggling on that end since the latest season-ending knee injury to the former MVP. Chicago showed some fight in a 131-128 triple-overtime home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday but were burned on the perimeter, where they allowed the Pelicans to knock down 11 3-pointers. “Our defense is not there,” Luol Deng told the team’s website. “Especially we are not covering the (3-point) line well. That’s hurting us.”

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Sun Sports (Miami)

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Heat (-14.5) - Bulls (-7.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Bulls +4.5

ABOUT THE HEAT (14-4, 9-9 ATS): Miami is among the league leaders in 3-point efficiency, knocking down 41.1 percent from long range, and rattled in 11-of-20 from beyond the arc in a 107-95 home triumph over the Bulls in the season opener on Oct. 29. The Heat were just 9-for-28 from 3-point range on Tuesday, however, as Shane Battier, James Jones and Chris Bosh combined to go 0-for-9. LeBron James is fighting through a back injury but is still shooting 57.8 percent from the field in his last three games.

ABOUT THE BULLS (7-9, 6-10 ATS): Despite the loss of Rose and the recent swoon, coach Tom Thibodeau is taking a positive approach. “I don’t see anyone hanging their head,” Thibodeau told ESPN Chicago. “(Rose’s) not going to be here, we know that. We’ve got more than enough here. Just concentrate on what we have to concentrate on.” Deng is stepping up with 27.4 points on 54.8 percent shooting in the last five games and Taj Gibson is coming off a career-best 26 points and 14 rebounds in Monday’s loss.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Heat G Dwyane Wade (soreness) sat out Tuesday’s game and is day-to-day.

2. Miami has taken five straight in the series going back to last spring’s Eastern Conference semifinals.

3. Chicago F Carlos Boozer is struggling to 7.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting in the last three contests.

Who's the worst NBA bet in New York: Knicks or Nets?

Considered to be an emerging rivalry, the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets have quickly turned into two of the most disappointing teams in the NBA, both in terms of wins and success against the spread.

Brooklyn’s blowout loss at home to Denver Tuesday pushed the two franchises’ combined ATS record to a poor 10-14. Both are missing key starters and on and off-court drama is giving the New York media plenty of fodder to make things worse.

Before these two battle for Big Apple bragging rights Thursday night, we ask which team is the worst bet in New York: Knicks or Nets?

Bad at the Barclays, Mayhem at MSG

Brooklyn's new digs in the Barclays Center have proven no refuge for the Nets. They are a matching 2-5 in the win column and ATS. With the team falling further and further behind the pack, that home-court advantage the team was expecting with a rebrand may fade with a lack of excitement in the building.

The Knicks are even more pathetic at home, going 0-8 ATS. With the Knicks 4-4 away from Madison Square Garden, they’re at least treading water on the road. But both of these teams’ home records are head scratching.

Coaching chaos

Brooklyn faces a more uphill climb than the Knicks, based on their coaching situation. Head coach Jason Kidd has never coached and is just one year removed from playing point guard for the Knicks. He recently reduced former head coach Lawrence Frank's role after the two reportedly got into an argument.

While New York isn't short of its own drama with Carmelo Anthony spouting off in head coach Mike Woodson's huddle, they at least have the advantage of having a unit that has turned it around before.

Injuries

Both teams have lost their cornerstones to injury, with the Nets losing Deron Williams and Paul Pierce and the Knicks missing center Tyson Chandler.

While the Nets can use guys like Joe Johnson to bring up the ball, their lack of a primary playmaker on offense has them struggling, which is why they’re 3-6 ATS without Williams this season.

Meanwhile the Knicks are a much worse 3-9 ATS without Chandler, who has an history of being unhealthy. If he doesn't return to full strength at some point, New York’s season could get even uglier.

Verdict

Both N.Y. teams desperately need a season-defining win Thursday night to turn things around.

After a blowout loss at home, the Nets could turn it around in the first meeting between the two teams this season. Recent wins over the Grizzlies and the Raptors show that Brooklyn has what it takes while the Knicks have covered just once during a nine-game losing skid.

At the moment, if you’re going to pick your poison, the Nets seem to have more value.

To the dogs: MAC title game provides best underdog value

Conference championships provide bettors with one last taste action before bowl season gets underway, and in certain conferences, the underdogs have yielded plenty of value.

Here's a quick look at the underdog ATS and game O/U records in title games by conference, listed in order beginning with the best underdog value:

Pac-12 Conference (2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U)

The brief history of the conference championship has been known for two things: impressive performances by the underdogs, and plenty of points - even by Pac-12 standards. The ninth-ranked Oregon Ducks, installed as 31-point favorites, rode three LaMichael James rushing touchdowns to a 49-31 shootout win over the UCLA Bruins. The following season, the No. 8 Stanford Cardinal needed a Jordan Williamson 36-yard field goal with 6:49 remaining to fend off the 16th-ranked Bruins, who entered as 9.5-point underdogs.

Mid-American Conference (9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)

It's fitting that a conference known for being an underdog in the overall NCAA landscape has produced the most value for dogs in the conference championships. The Chad Pennington-led Marshall Green Wave highlighted a stretch of four consecutive underdog covers in the late 1990's and early 2000's, but the favorites came on strong with successful covers in five of the next six years. Buffalo's stunning 42-24 win over 12th-ranked and previously unbeaten Ball State - which entered as a 15-point favorite - kickstarted another four-year stretch of underdog covers.

Southeastern Conference (9-9-2 ATS, 10-10 O/U)

Bettors haven't gained an inch betting the underdog in the last 20 years of SEC championship games. Underdogs went 5-2-1 in the eight title matchups from 1993 to 2000, but the favorites dominated the early 2000s - most notably the fourth-ranked Georgia Bulldogs, whose 237 passing yards and a touchdown from standout quarterback David Greene and two rushing scores from Musa Smith led to a 30-3 drubbing of the Arkansas Razorbacks, who went into the 2002 title game as a 9-point underdog. The over/under has also been an even split over the past 20 championships.

Atlantic Coast Conference (4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U)

Like its SEC brethren, the ACC has seen the underdogs cover half the time. Florida State and Wake Forest won outright as dogs in 2005 and 2006, but were followed by four straight covers by the favorites. The most emphatic of those victories came in 2008, when Tyrod Taylor ran in a pair of scores to lead the Virginia Tech Hokies - 1-point faves - to a convincing 30-12 win over the Boston College Eagles. The underdogs have since returned to prominence the past two years, with both results landing Under.

Big Ten Conference (1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)

The Big Ten has only held two championship games, but both provided great value to those willing to bet the Over. The Wisconsin Badgers, who entered as 9.5-point favorites, rode Russell Wilson's three touchdown passes and Montee Ball's three rushing scores to a thrilling 42-39 win over Michigan State in the inaugural conference title game in 2011. Ball was back at it the following year, leading the Badgers - then 3-point favorites - with three more rushing TDs en route to a 70-31 thumping of the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Bryan Leonard please

Fox Sheets for Thursday NFL

- Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game.
(30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*)

- Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(39-9 since 1983.) (81.2%, +29.1 units. Rating = 4*)

Prediction Machine

NFL SIDE & TOTAL
Houston Texans -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 53.3%)
OVER 43 (Covers 55.6%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Houston 25.4 - Jacksonville 21.0
SU Pick and Win%: Houston wins 60.8%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans -3 covers 53.3%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $10
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 55.6%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $34

H&H Sports

Double Dime Jaguars

NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Sharks won their last six games, outscoring foes 24-12. Penguins won seven of last nine.
-- Bruins won six of their last eight games. Montreal won seven of last eight.
-- Jets won three of their last four games.
-- Blues won last four games, scoring 20 goals.
-- Chicago won six of its last seven games.
-- Avalanche won five of their last six games.


Cold teams
-- Sabres lost six of their last seven games.
-- Toronto lost its last five games, outscored 23-11. Dallas Stars lost four of last six games.
-- Senators lost six of their last nine games.Tampa Bay lost six of last eight.
-- Panthers lost five of their last six games.
-- Islanders lost last seven games; they're 3-9 on road.
-- Predators lost last three games, outscored 9-3. Carolina lost six of its last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
-- Edmonton lost nine of its twelve home games.

Totals
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Ranger games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Toronto games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven San Jose games.
-- Under is 17-8-4 in Montreal games this season.
-- Seven of last eight Ottawa games went over total.
-- Four of last five Florida games went over the total.
-- Last four Islander games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Nashville games.
-- Seven of last ten Chicago games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Colorado games.

Series records
-- Rangers won six of last eight games with Buffalo.
-- Toronto won its last two games with Dallas, 4-1/4-3so
-- Sharks won five of last six games with Pittsburgh.
-- Canadiens won their last three games with Boston.
-- Lightning lost seven of last ten games with Ottawa.
-- Winnipeg won five of last seven games with Florida.
-- Islanders lost three of last four games with St Louis.
-- Predators won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Wild lost seven of last nine games against Chicago.
-- Oilers won four of last five games with Colorado.

NBA

Hot teams
-- Heat won 10 of last 11 games; they're 5-2 vs spread on road.

Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); Nets lost eight of last ten.
-- Clippers lost their last two games, by 5-10 points. Memphis is 1-3 in last four home games; they're 2-7 vs spread at home.
-- Bulls lost six of their last seven games.


Totals
-- Six of last eight New York games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Clipper-Memphis games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago-Miami games went over the total.

Series records
-- Knicks won eight of last eleven games with Brooklyn.
-- Clippers lost their last five games with Memphis.
-- Bulls lost five of last six games with Miami.