Service Plays Sunday 12/8/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Carolina at New Orleans

The Saints host Carolina tonight looking to bounce back from last week's 34-7 loss to Seattle and improve on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following a SU defeat. New Orleans is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

Is home field really worth that much to the Seattle Seahawks?

CenturyLink Field flexed its pipes against New Orleans Monday night, breaking the world record for the loudest crowd ever and constantly crossed the Saints’ signals, helping the Seahawks win 34-7 and gain the inside track on home field in the NFC playoffs.

Now, Seattle moves down the coast to San Francisco where it's a 2.5-point road underdog versus the 49ers in Week 14. The Seahawks haven’t been nearly as dominant away from the Emerald City but own an identical ATS mark (4-2) on the road as they do at home, and look like the best team in football after mashing New Orleans Monday night.

Seattle’s opposition Sunday – San Francisco - is gaining momentum after two straight wins, but those victories came against the Redskins and Rams, who have a combined record of 8-16 on the season.

The Niners offense is nowhere near as explosive as in 2012 and only had two touchdowns on 338 yards in the victory over St. Louis, instead settling for three field goals and going 4-for-12 on third down. They went just 4-for-14 on third down versus Washington the week before.

Seattle’s offense is probably the most underrated attack in the NFL, simply because the Seahawks’ defense grabs all the glory. Russell Wilson & Co. average 28.3 points per game – second most in the league – and were a lethal 7-for-14 on third downs Monday night. On the year, Seattle boasts a 40.52 percent third-down completion rate – ninth best in the NFL.

When you have divisional clashes like this, with two strong defenses that know each other so well, it’s the team that scores touchdowns instead of settling for field goals that gets the win.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Sunday, December 8

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 3) at WASHINGTON (3 - 9) - 12/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (3 - 8 - 1) at BALTIMORE (6 - 6) - 12/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (4 - 8) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) - 12/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 157-118 ATS (+27.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 8) at NY JETS (5 - 7) - 12/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-69 ATS (-38.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-68 ATS (-41.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-37 ATS (-22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NY JETS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 4) at CINCINNATI (8 - 4) - 12/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (9 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (9 - 3) - 12/8/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in a road game where the total is

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Sunday, December 8

Kansas City at Washington, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 12-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Washington: 1-8 ATS as an underdog

Minnesota at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 4-18 ATS in road games after a win by 3 or less points
Baltimore: 7-0 ATS in home games against NFC North division opponents

Cleveland at New England, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 19-34 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
New England: 33-18 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Oakland at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 7-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
NY Jets: 17-4 ATS in home games off a home loss

Indianapolis at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 9-1 ATS in December games
Cincinnati: 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Carolina at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Carolina: 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
New Orleans: 25-46 ATS in home games versus division opponents

Detroit at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Detroit: Detroit 15-2 OVER after a win by 21 or more points
Philadelphia: 5-15 ATS after playing a game at home

Miami at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Miami: 31-49 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Pittsburgh: 13-3 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5

Buffalo at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 14-4 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5
Tampa Bay: 3-13 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Tennessee at Denver, 4:05 ET
Tennessee: 8-1 OVER after scoring 14 points or less last game
Denver: 15-4 ATS in games played on a grass field

St Louis at Arizona, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 9-22 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7
Arizona: 25-12 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 or less points

NY Giants at San Diego, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 26-12 ATS in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4
San Diego: 23-9 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Seattle at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 5-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
San Francisco: 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Atlanta at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 1-6 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Green Bay: 52-29 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season

NFL

Week 14

Trend Report

Sunday, December 8

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NEW ENGLAND
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. PITTSBURGH
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Miami is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. BALTIMORE
Minnesota is 3-9-1 SU in its last 13 games ,
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. TAMPA BAY
Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Tampa Bay is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. WASHINGTON
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Kansas City's last 20 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. PHILADELPHIA
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Green Bay is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY JETS
Oakland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Oakland
NY Jets are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games when playing Oakland

4:05 PM
TENNESSEE vs. DENVER
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Tennessee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Denver is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 12 games at home
San Francisco18-5-1 SU in its last 24 games at home

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. SAN DIEGO
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
San Diego is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina

NFL Betting Week 14 Preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 14’s NFL action.

All odds current as of noon ET, Dec. 5.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a perfect example of how quickly things can change in the NFL. After they were hammered in Week 8 by the San Francisco 49ers you could still find odds on whether they were going to 0-16 as they went into their bye.

Now, they’re riding a three-game winning streak and have jumped out of the AFC South basement and past the Houston Texans, who they’ll host in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. It’s turning into a tricky game to handicap. The Jaguars may be on a bit of a roll, but they haven’t won a home game all season. Meanwhile, Houston just keeps finding new ways to lose every week, but they hung around with the Patriots and scored 30 points for the first time since the second game of the season.

The Jags opened as 2.5-point underdogs but have since moved to 3.5-point pups as about 64 percent of Sports Interaction’s action comes in on the Texans. This might be a game in which we’ll see a wave of home-team support as the kick nears, so keep a close eye on this line.

Other odds on the move

With cold weather settling in, totals in Denver Broncos games are dropping with the temperature. This week the Tennessee at Denver over/under opened at 50.5 but now sits at 48.5. Denver has over bettors cashing at a 7-4-1 clip so far this season.

The Cincinnati Bengals have won two straight and are unbeaten at home as they get set to host the Indianapolis Colts this week. The Bengals opened as 5.5-poing favorites and are now listed at -6 while the total has dipped from 44.5 to 43.5.

Confidence in New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith is approaching the Mark Sanchez level, so it’s no shocker to see the Jets move from 2.5-point favorites at the open to -1.5 now. The Jets have dropped three in a row straight up and against the spread.

This week’s most popular bet

The Kansas City Chiefs have dropped four of their last five against the number, but face a Washington club that has lost four straight, failing to cover in each. Bettors are going with the lesser of two evils in a big way. Right now, 94 percent of Sports Interaction’s wagers are coming in on Kansas City.

Stephen Nover

156 SFX -2.5(-120) triple-dime bet

143 DET / 144 PHI UNDER 54.0 double-dime bet

134 BAL -6.5(-110) double-dime bet

Maddux
10* Titans +12

4 more to come including a 20*…Ill post when released

Prediction Machine

MIA +3
SEA +3
MIN +7
CHI +1.5

CHI O 49
NYJ O 40.5
DEN O 50
MIN O 43

Week 14 / LV Hilton Contest

Football Jesus Podcast : Saints

Sunday's NFL Week 14 Betting Cheat Sheet


Early Action


Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 41.5)


The Ravens are looking for their first three-game winning streak of the campaign and will also hope to semi-corral Vikings star Adrian Peterson, who rushed for a season-best 211 yards in last week’s overtime win over the Chicago Bears.


Matt Cassel is expected to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings after throwing for 243 yards in relief of Christian Ponder, who left the game against the Bears after suffering a concussion. While Minnesota has struggled on the road, the Ravens have been strong at home with a 5-1 mark while allowing just 12.3 points per game. Baltimore is tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final AFC spot but holds the tiebreaker by virtue of its win over the Dolphins on Oct. 6.


LINE: The Ravens opened -7.5 and are now -7. The total is down to 41.5 from the opening 43.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with freezing rain and/or snow in the forecast.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.0) + Baltimore (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -8.0


TRENDS:
* Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Ravens last 8 home games.


Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 43.5)


The Kansas City Chiefs' dream season has come crashing back to reality with three straight losses, but they can move a step closer to clinching a playoff spot with a victory at Washington on Sunday. Kansas City has found itself unable to keep pace in shootouts the past three weeks, losing to Denver twice with a heartbreaking defeat to San Diego sandwiched between.


Three of Washington's four consecutive losses have come by eight points or fewer, and the league's best ground game has been impressive of late. Quarterback Robert Griffin III turned in one of his best efforts of the season last week, completing 24-of-32 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a season-high 88 yards on 12 carries.


LINE: The Chiefs opened as 3-point road faves. The total is down one point from the opening 44.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with freezing rain and/or snow in the forecast.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-1.5) + Washington (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -2.


TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.


Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 42)


Quarterback EJ Manuel missed more than a month for the Bills, but he has come back to throw for four touchdown passes and one interception in his last three starts. Buffalo saw its slim playoff chances evaporate in the 34-31 overtime loss to Atlanta last week, a setback that led team president Russ Brandon to express concern over whether playing in Toronto wrecks a home-field edge for the Bills.


Tampa Bay's Mike Glennon, a third-round draft pick, had guided the Buccaneers to consecutive straight victories before running into Carolina's stone-wall defense last week. Glennon was the league's Offensive Rookie of the Month in November, but failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in the 27-6 loss to the Panthers.


LINE: The Bucs opened -2.5. The total is down a half-point from the opening 42.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing toward the N end zone at 6 mph.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -3.0


TRENDS:
* Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last five road games.


Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)


After finding the end zone just once in his first 10 games, Mike Wallace scored in his second straight contest as Miami posted a 23-3 triumph over the New York Jets last week. The Dolphins are tied for sixth place in the AFC with Baltimore, which handed the Steelers just their third loss in eight games with a 22-20 decision on Thanksgiving.


Ben Roethlisberger has thrown eight touchdown passes in his last three games - and his next one will snap a tie with Hall-of-Famer Terry Bradshaw (212) for the most in franchise history. Wallace's departure opened doors for Antonio Brown, who has reeled in an NFL-best 85 receptions and 1,103 yards - as well as six touchdowns.


LINE: The Steelers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is down one point.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 66 percent chance of snow.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+2.0) + Pittsburgh (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -5.0


TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 vs. AFC.


Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 52)


Detroit, which leads Chicago by one game in the NFC North, continues to ride its talented three-headed offensive attack. Matthew Stafford has 627 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last two games, Reggie Bush racked up 182 total yards and a touchdown against the Packers and Calvin Johnson has 962 receiving yards in his last six games - the best six-game run by any receiver in NFL history.


Philadelphia, playing its third straight home game, enters this weekend tied with Dallas atop the NFC East. While the Eagles have won four straight games, they have not scored a single point in the fourth quarter in any of those contests and their margin of victory has gotten increasingly less (29, 14, eight, three).


LINE: Philly opened -2.5. The total is down 2.5-point from the opening 54.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 66 percent chance of snow.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-4.0) - Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1.5


TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0 in Eagles last five vs. NFC.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Eagles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 43)


Indianapolis is enjoying a three-game lead in the AFC South but is showing some cracks with losses in two of the last four contests. Luck is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes while throwing for two touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. Luck is without favorite target Reggie Wayne and will be dealing with a Cincinnati pass rush that has recorded 36 sacks - including 18 in the last five games - and is a perfect 5-0 at home.


The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the most dominant defensive teams in the NFL but are being overlooked among the contenders in the AFC. Cincinnati is two games up on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and would like to have the division sewn up before closing the regular season against the Ravens on Dec. 29.


LINE: The Bengals opened -5 and are now -6.5. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.


WEATHER: Freezing rain and/or snow is in the forecast.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-2.0) + Cincinnati (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -4.5


TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Bengals last 15 vs. AFC.


Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47)


Cleveland has dropped three straight and six of seven to fall out of the wild-card race and is struggling on defense along with the quarterback issues. The Browns are surrendering an average of 30.8 points in their last six losses despite ranking fourth in the NFL in total defense.


Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offense are making second-half comebacks a staple of their weekly plan. Brady and company would prefer to jump out early and will attempt to avoid climbing out of a big hole when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.


LINE: The Pats opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total is up one point from the opening 46.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with partly cloudy skies.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) + New England (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -15.0


TRENDS:
* Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.


Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3, 40)


Oakland mathematically is still alive for the playoff spot but realistically is playing out the string. The Raiders have lost four of their last five contests, including a 31-24 defeat against Dallas on Nov. 28 in which it squandered a 14-point lead and was outscored 17-3 in the second half.


Despite their current woes, the New York Jets still are in the race for a wild-card spot in the AFC. They can strengthen their chances with a victory over the visiting Oakland Raiders on Sunday. New York has received disappointing performances from rookie quarterback Geno Smith while losing three straight games since its bye week but still finds itself only one game behind Baltimore and Miami for the second wild card.


LINE: The Jets opened -2.5 and are now -3. The total is down a half-point to 40.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with a 47 percent chance of rain and/or snow.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - New York (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -3.0


TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last five games overall.


Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 44)


Not much has gone right for Atlanta, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where it ranks 20th against the pass and 30th against the run. Matt Ryan and the passing game have put up decent numbers, but mostly out of necessity. The Falcons rank 29th in the league in rushing (81.1 yards per game) and have played from behind most of the season.


The Green Bay Packers' playoff hopes are on life support and might not survive another week without Aaron Rodgers as they prepare for Sunday's visit by the Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay's quarterback will sit out a fifth consecutive game due to a broken collarbone and the Packers are winless since he was injured Nov. 4, falling two games behind NFC North leader Detroit in the win column.


LINE: The Pack opened -3.5. The total has dropped from the opening 46.


WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for an 84 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the mid-teens.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.0) - Green Bay (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -1.0


TRENDS:
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.
* Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.

Sunday's NFL Week 14 Betting Cheat Sheet


Late Action


Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-12, 48.5)


Tennessee, which is playing its third straight road game, had its AFC South title hopes all but dashed in last week's 22-14 loss at Indianapolis and has little margin for error in the clustered playoff race. The Titans will need a big game out of running back Chris Johnson - who has only one 100-yard game this season - to keep the ball out of the hands of Manning. The Titans are desperate for a victory, trailing Baltimore and Miami by one game for the AFC's sixth seed.


The Denver Broncos have a chance to celebrate head coach John Fox's return to the sideline by clinching a playoff berth. Peyton Manning carved up the Chiefs for 403 yards and five touchdown passes - four to Eric Decker - in last week's come-from-behind victory, pushing his season totals to 41 scoring passes against only nine interceptions.


LINE: The Broncos opened -13 and are now -12. The total opened 50.5 and is now 48.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with a 44 percent chance of snow.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+2.5) - Denver (-7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Denver -13.0


TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.


St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)


St. Louis has proved to be up to the challenge against top competition, knocking off Indianapolis and Chicago in back-to-back games before falling 23-13 at San Francisco last week. Quarterback Kellen Clemens is completing only 51.7 percent of his passes since taking over for the injured Sam Bradford and could be without center Scott Wells (broken ankle) and left tackle Jake Long (head).


The Cardinals will look to continue their wild-card push at the expense of the Rams when they host their division foe on Sunday. Arizona is a game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 6 spot in the NFC. Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald caught two TD passes in the first meeting and has at least one TD reception in three straight games.


LINE: The Cards opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total has held at 41.5.


WEATHER: N/A


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+3.0) - Arizona (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona -8.0


TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)


The Seattle Seahawks are trying to wrap up the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are three games up on the 49ers in the division with four games left and is coming off its most impressive performance yet in the 34-7 triumph over the Saints.


San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick is not having such an easy go of it in his second year as a starter and leads a passing attack that ranks 31st in the league with an average of 180.3 yards. Kaepernick is starting to come around in the last two weeks, however, with a total of 510 yards and four touchdowns in back-to-back wins.


LINE: The Niners opened -2.5. The total is currently 41.5.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -1.5


TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.


New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47)


Justin Tuck collected a career-best four sacks versus the Redskins to earn NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Tuck's increased workload came in the absence of fellow defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who is in line to miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. New York has experienced production from its 26th-ranked running game as Andre Brown scored twice last week and has reeled in at least three receptions in each of the last three contests.


The Chargers have dropped four of their last five and committed three turnovers in last week's 17-10 setback to Cincinnati to fall one game behind Baltimore for the coveted sixth seed in the AFC. While San Diego veteran TE Antonio Gates often receives the fanfare, backup Ladarius Green has seen his snaps increase and scored in consecutive games.


LINE: The Chargers opened -3 and are now -3.5. The total has held at 47.


WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.0) + San Diego (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -3.0


TRENDS:
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 road games.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 46)


The Panthers surged into a tie for the division lead on the heels of an eight-game winning streak in which they have allowed only one opponent to score 20 points. Cam Newton has directed Carolina to four road victories during the eight-game run and will try to hand New Orleans it first home loss.


New Orleans' high-powered offense was limited to 188 total yards in the 34-7 drubbing in Seattle - the lowest total since Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. Brees was held to 147 yards passing last week but has eclipsed 300 yards in each of the six home games this season.


LINE: The Saints opened -4 and are now -3. The total is up a half-point from the opening 45.5.


WEATHER: N/A


COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-5.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5


TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New Orleans.
* Under is 7-1 in Saints last eight vs. NFC.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 14

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 14:

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 44.5)

Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge vs. Ruined Redskins

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows more about the NFC East than most outside the division, having waddled the sidelines in Philadelphia for 13 seasons. That inside info has shown in the Chiefs record versus NFC East teams this season, with Kansas City going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against Dallas, New York and Philadelphia.

Washington has fallen far from the class of the NFC East in just one season, lugging a 3-9 record into Week 14. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is no longer a dual-threat dynamo, having been put on a short leash as a pocket passer to protect his wonky knees. The Redskins have done a terrible job protecting him and have allowed RG3 to be sacked 15 times in the past three games - all loses SU and ATS. The Chiefs pass rush isn’t as potent as earlier in the season but still has teeth, especially with Reid exploiting Washington’s weakness.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-2.5, 40)

Raiders’ fast starts vs. Jets’ failure to launch

The Raiders don’t waste any time finding the end zone. Oakland ranks second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring – 7.2 points per opening frame – and sits eighth in the league in first-half points, averaging 13.1 points through the first two quarters. The Raiders have outscored opponents 86-41 in the first 15 minutes before suffering a power outage following halftime.

If Oakland gets out to another strong start versus the Jets, a poor second half may not matter. New York has dropped three in a row, scoring a combined 18 points in those games. A QB shuffle hasn’t helped the offense at all, and Gang Green could finally be giving up on head coach Rex Ryan. New York averages just 2.6 points per first quarter – worst in the NFL – and has mustered only three total first-half points during this losing skid.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)

Rams’ pass rush vs. Cardinals’ QB Carson Palmer

The high point in a low season for the Rams has been the play of their front four. St. Louis has been able to bring a dominant pass rush with just its defensive linemen, especially DE Robert Quinn who is second in the NFL with 13 sacks. Quinn has three sacks on Arizona QB Carson Palmer in Week 1, helping the Rams edge the Cardinals 27-24 as 3-point home underdogs. On the season, St. Louis has 37 sacks – tied for fifth in the league.

Palmer doesn’t respond well to pressure. The aging passer runs like he’s stuck in mud and has a bad habit of relieving that pressure by throwing away interceptions. Palmer was sacked five times and threw two INTs in the loss to Philadelphia last weekend and has been crushed 11 times in the past three games. To make matters worse, RB Andre Ellington is out of action, taking away one of Palmer’s favorite check downs when things get hot.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 45.5)

Panthers’ time of possession vs. Saints’ Superdome offense

The Seahawks may have laid the blueprint for locking down the Saints during last Monday’s squash, but Carolina coach Ron Rivera may not even look to his defense to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense Sunday night. The Panthers offense can do that. Carolina tops the league in time of possession, chewing up more than 33 minutes per game, and has limited opponents to an average of 58.7 plays per game – fewest in the NFL.

New Orleans defense is improved but the backbone of the Big Easy is Brees and that potent pass game. The Saints sit second in time of possession this season - 32:30 – but held on to the football for only 26:22 in the loss to Seattle. Opponents have been trying to kill the clock in recent meetings with New Orleans, limiting it to an average of only 29:05 TOP and just over two touchdowns in the Saints last three games. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS in the span.

NFL Prop Shop

Week 14's Best Player Prop Bets

Covers Expert Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 14.

Most passing yards

Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)

The Chiefs have opened up their offense over the last couple of weeks, with Alex Smith passing for just shy of 600 yards. There's little reason to expect anything different this week, as they should come out aggressively against a down-trodden Redskins defense.

The Washington offense is broken. I don't think I'm the only one that holds that opinion. Last Sunday, we saw the 'Skins orchestrate a nice opening drive, but after scoring a touchdown early in the second quarter, they were lifeless the rest of the way. RGIII has been off his game all season, and his supporting cast hasn't been much better. With the Chiefs in line for a strong bounce-back performance defensively, look for Griffin's struggles to continue.

Take: Smith

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

The Colts have done everything they can to prove they can be a physical, ground-oriented offensive team this season, but it's come at the expense of Andrew Luck's numbers. Luck threw for nearly 4,400 yards last season. He's reached only 2,793 passing yards this year, with his yards per pass average dropping from 7.0 to 6.7.

Cincinnati's aerial attack has been inconsistent at best this season, but with Andy Dalton coming off back-to-back poor outings, I look for a positive response against the Colts. Note that Dalton has still thrown for over 270 yards in five of his last seven games. He and A.J. Green should be in for a big day against a Colts defense that gives up 12.5 yards per pass completion.

Take: Dalton

Most rushing yards

C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills) vs. Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

C.J. Spiller returned to form last week against Atlanta, running for 149 yards on 15 carries in Toronto. With that being said, 77 of those yards came on a single rush. He also suffered an ankle injury in that contest, and while he should be good to go this Sunday, I don't expect him to have another big day on the ground.

Bucs RB Bobby Rainey has been bright spot in an otherwise dismal season, busting out with over 300 yards rushing over his last four games. The last time we saw the Bucs play here at home, they leaned heavily on Rainey, as he carried the ball 30 times for 163 yards. They should employ a similar gameplan against a Bills defense that has given up 4.9 yards per rush over their last three contests.

Take: Rainey

Most pass receptions

Nate Burleson (Detroit Lions) vs. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)

The Eagles offense has been flying high under the guidance of QB Nick Foles, and DeSean Jackson has obviously played a major role as well. With that said, I'm going to go contrarian with this play, and back Nate Burleson in his third game back from injury.

Burleson wasn't a factor in last week's win over Green Bay, but remember, just two weeks ago, he caught seven passes for 77 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. The Packers keyed on him last week, but I don't expect to see him garner quite as much attention from the Eagles secondary on Sunday.

For all of the yardage, not to mention seven touchdowns, DeSean Jackson has racked up this season, he's actually been held to only 11 catches over the last three games.

Take: Burleson

Sixth Sense
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Maddux ADDED

10* Raiders/Jets under 40
10* Cincy -6.5