[h=1]TNF Primer: How to bet HOU-JAC[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from Vegas experts on the Thursday night game[/h]By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
There's no mystery to why people will be tuning in to watch Thursday night's classic between the Texans and Jaguars. With no playoff implications and limited fantasy football significance, the biggest intrigue is from a handicapping point of view (and potential No. 1 draft pick implications in May). Sometimes the greatest value can be found in the worst games.
The Jaguars, surprisingly, have won three of their past four, the second win coming when these two teams played two weeks ago. Midway through the season, Jacksonville seemed like a solid bet to have the worst record in the NFL. The Jaguars seemed vulnerable to an 0-16 season, and gamblers pondered questions such as, "What would the line be if the University of Alabama played Jacksonville?"
It helps to play Chad Henne instead of Blaine Gabbert, and the impact of a new coach's new scheme sometimes takes some time to begin to show tangible results. Gus Bradley seems like he was a good choice to lead this struggling franchise.
As for the Texans, it's hard to believe how a Super Bowl contender is in position to have the top overall pick. Everything has gone wrong, from Gary Kubiak suffering a mini-stroke during a game, to Matt Schaub losing his job to stars Arian Foster and Brian Cushing suffering season-ending injuries.
When these teams met two weeks ago, the loss prompted Ben Tate to say he was "embarrassed" and for Andre Johnson to say, "We suck as an offense. That's pretty much it."
But despite nine straight losses, the Texans are still a field goal favorite Thursday night on the road. Preseason expectations still have some meaning, evidently. The public, however, is fairly split as only 54 percent of the bets are on the Texans.
Let's turn to our panel of Vegas experts for an ATS pick on Thursday night's matchup.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]
Spread: Opened Texans minus-2.5; now Texans minus-3
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43.5
</CENTER>
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]<OFFER></OFFER>
Sal Selvaggio says: "Earlier in the week I took Houston minus-3, plus-105 and at minus-3, minus-125 or better. That is the side I would want to be on in this game. Jacksonville knocked off Houston a couple weeks ago and based on the stats, it was no fluke. After the game, several Texans players called this an embarrassment. So even though the spot isn't ideal -- traveling on a short week off a monster effort against the rival Pats -- I am not expecting Houston to just mail this one in like a lot of teams on long losing streaks do.
"Jacksonville has surprisingly won three out of their last four games but has been a bit lucky as they have been out gained 5.4 yards per play to 4.5 YPPL in those four games. In three of the four games they were out gained by over 100 yards. Jacksonville is still bad ... just not as historically bad as it looked with Gabbert as the quarterback. Jacksonville has very little, if any, home-field advantage, has been blown out in every home game this year and hasn't sniffed a point spread cover.
"I also have some good situations that favor the Texans in this one, including a bounce-back situation that is 88-34 ATS since 1980. They also qualify in my turnover table, which once again is having a good year and historically has been a consistent winner just about every year since I discovered it. The game reads like Houston does care, and between that and the situations I think there is value on the Texans."
ATS pick: Texans
Dave Tuley says: "I've been on these teams quite a bit (some say way too much), so I've watched a lot of bad football this year, but I think I have a good handle on these teams. When they met two Sundays ago in Houston, I was more than happy to take the Jaguars as double-digit underdogs because I didn't believe the Texans (especially the way they had been playing) deserved to be that big of a favorite over anyone. The Jaguars won that game outright, 13-6, and followed up with a second straight win over the Browns. Now they're just a 3-point home 'dog.
"With these two teams' respective (or not so respected) home-field advantages, we'd expect to see a four- to five-point swing in the line with the change of venue. However instead we've seen it adjusted by eight points. I think that's too much and doesn't offer enough value on the Jags. The Texans, despite that earlier result, are still better on both sides of the ball and I'd need more points to fade them again. I think we saw a better representation of the Texans' talent against the Patriots last week, and I highly doubt the Jaguars will hold them to just six points again."
ATS pick: Pass (lean to Texans)
Wunderdog says: "Has there ever before been an NFL team that owns a top-three defense yet has lost 10 straight games? I doubt it. This week the Houston defense goes up against the worst offense in the entire NFL in the Jaguars. The Jags are the worst in terms of points per game (14.5 overall and just 6.2 per game on the road) and yards per game (285.6 overall and 252.5 on the road). So is this the week the Texans break the 10-game slide? If history is predictive, then the answer would be yes.
"NFL teams on a seven-game losing streak or longer are 108-64-6 ATS, covering about 63 percent of all bets since the 1989 season. The Texans covered in this role a week ago and I think they do it again tonight. Those numbers go to 33-14 ATS if they are favored or a 'dog of less than 11. The Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 250-plus yards passing in their last game, while the Jags are 10-29-1 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 350-plus total yards in their last game. Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS at home in its last five. I think Houston snaps its losing streak here and covers this short number. Go with the Texans."
ATS pick: Texans
There's no mystery to why people will be tuning in to watch Thursday night's classic between the Texans and Jaguars. With no playoff implications and limited fantasy football significance, the biggest intrigue is from a handicapping point of view (and potential No. 1 draft pick implications in May). Sometimes the greatest value can be found in the worst games.
The Jaguars, surprisingly, have won three of their past four, the second win coming when these two teams played two weeks ago. Midway through the season, Jacksonville seemed like a solid bet to have the worst record in the NFL. The Jaguars seemed vulnerable to an 0-16 season, and gamblers pondered questions such as, "What would the line be if the University of Alabama played Jacksonville?"
It helps to play Chad Henne instead of Blaine Gabbert, and the impact of a new coach's new scheme sometimes takes some time to begin to show tangible results. Gus Bradley seems like he was a good choice to lead this struggling franchise.
As for the Texans, it's hard to believe how a Super Bowl contender is in position to have the top overall pick. Everything has gone wrong, from Gary Kubiak suffering a mini-stroke during a game, to Matt Schaub losing his job to stars Arian Foster and Brian Cushing suffering season-ending injuries.
When these teams met two weeks ago, the loss prompted Ben Tate to say he was "embarrassed" and for Andre Johnson to say, "We suck as an offense. That's pretty much it."
But despite nine straight losses, the Texans are still a field goal favorite Thursday night on the road. Preseason expectations still have some meaning, evidently. The public, however, is fairly split as only 54 percent of the bets are on the Texans.
Let's turn to our panel of Vegas experts for an ATS pick on Thursday night's matchup.
Spread: Opened Texans minus-2.5; now Texans minus-3
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43.5
</CENTER>
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]<OFFER></OFFER>
Sal Selvaggio says: "Earlier in the week I took Houston minus-3, plus-105 and at minus-3, minus-125 or better. That is the side I would want to be on in this game. Jacksonville knocked off Houston a couple weeks ago and based on the stats, it was no fluke. After the game, several Texans players called this an embarrassment. So even though the spot isn't ideal -- traveling on a short week off a monster effort against the rival Pats -- I am not expecting Houston to just mail this one in like a lot of teams on long losing streaks do.
"Jacksonville has surprisingly won three out of their last four games but has been a bit lucky as they have been out gained 5.4 yards per play to 4.5 YPPL in those four games. In three of the four games they were out gained by over 100 yards. Jacksonville is still bad ... just not as historically bad as it looked with Gabbert as the quarterback. Jacksonville has very little, if any, home-field advantage, has been blown out in every home game this year and hasn't sniffed a point spread cover.
"I also have some good situations that favor the Texans in this one, including a bounce-back situation that is 88-34 ATS since 1980. They also qualify in my turnover table, which once again is having a good year and historically has been a consistent winner just about every year since I discovered it. The game reads like Houston does care, and between that and the situations I think there is value on the Texans."
ATS pick: Texans
Dave Tuley says: "I've been on these teams quite a bit (some say way too much), so I've watched a lot of bad football this year, but I think I have a good handle on these teams. When they met two Sundays ago in Houston, I was more than happy to take the Jaguars as double-digit underdogs because I didn't believe the Texans (especially the way they had been playing) deserved to be that big of a favorite over anyone. The Jaguars won that game outright, 13-6, and followed up with a second straight win over the Browns. Now they're just a 3-point home 'dog.
"With these two teams' respective (or not so respected) home-field advantages, we'd expect to see a four- to five-point swing in the line with the change of venue. However instead we've seen it adjusted by eight points. I think that's too much and doesn't offer enough value on the Jags. The Texans, despite that earlier result, are still better on both sides of the ball and I'd need more points to fade them again. I think we saw a better representation of the Texans' talent against the Patriots last week, and I highly doubt the Jaguars will hold them to just six points again."
ATS pick: Pass (lean to Texans)
Wunderdog says: "Has there ever before been an NFL team that owns a top-three defense yet has lost 10 straight games? I doubt it. This week the Houston defense goes up against the worst offense in the entire NFL in the Jaguars. The Jags are the worst in terms of points per game (14.5 overall and just 6.2 per game on the road) and yards per game (285.6 overall and 252.5 on the road). So is this the week the Texans break the 10-game slide? If history is predictive, then the answer would be yes.
"NFL teams on a seven-game losing streak or longer are 108-64-6 ATS, covering about 63 percent of all bets since the 1989 season. The Texans covered in this role a week ago and I think they do it again tonight. Those numbers go to 33-14 ATS if they are favored or a 'dog of less than 11. The Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 250-plus yards passing in their last game, while the Jags are 10-29-1 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 350-plus total yards in their last game. Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS at home in its last five. I think Houston snaps its losing streak here and covers this short number. Go with the Texans."
ATS pick: Texans
