[h=1]Can Auburn jump Ohio State?[/h][h=3]Plus the chances for Mizzou and even Bama to play for a BCS title[/h]By Brad Edwards | ESPN Insider
We should have known the Bowl Championship Series was bound to deliver at least a little shot of drama on its way out the door.
The stage doesn't appear to be set for one of the more epic final weekends in BCS history, but the fairly small margin between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Auburn in this week's standings has at least given us a story line worth following throughout the last few days of the season. For years, we've debated whether a one-loss SEC champion could finish ahead of an undefeated team from another major conference, and that debate is heating up again as the scenario finally plays out before our eyes.
Starting with the BCS numbers of Ohio State and Auburn, here's a look at some of the more interesting twists that this weekend could hold. We might as well cover all of the bases, since game results are sometimes unpredictable when BCS pressure mounts.
If both Auburn and Ohio State win, could the Tigers pass the Buckeyes in the BCS standings?
Remember, the BCS formula is two-thirds human polls (one-third each from the Harris poll and the coaches' poll) and one-third computers. Historically, it has been incredibly rare for a one-loss team to be ranked ahead of a major team with a perfect record in the final regular-season polls, so it would stand to reason that Auburn's best chance would be to have an edge over Ohio State in the computers and just get really close to the Buckeyes in the other two-thirds. But that scenario doesn't appear to be in the cards for the Tigers.
Because the computer algorithms, by BCS mandate, are not allowed to consider the scores of the games (margins of victory), there are very few variables to consider when predicting computer outcomes with so few games remaining. An Auburn win over Missouri would be worth more than an Ohio State win over Michigan State, but not by much. And Florida State, which is ranked near Auburn and OSU in several computers, will also upgrade its profile a little by beating Duke.
This week, Ohio State has a computer percentage of .96 (an average No. 2 ranking across the board), while Auburn has a percentage of .92 (an average ranking of third). My best guess is that wins by OSU, Auburn and FSU on Saturday would increase the Buckeyes' percentage to .97, and the Tigers' to .94 (dropping the Seminoles from .99 to .96). This means Auburn's best case seems to be a minor gain on Ohio State in the computers, but nowhere close to pulling even in that part of the BCS equation.
With those new computer numbers, we can calculate exactly how much of an edge Auburn will need over Ohio State in Sunday's polls to place ahead of the Buckeyes in the final BCS standings. The answer is that the Tigers will need to be ranked ahead of OSU on approximately 75 percent of the ballots. Right now, they appear to be ahead of the Buckeyes on slightly fewer than 25 percent.
Assuming there are some voters who are philosophically opposed to putting a one-loss team ahead of a major unbeaten team, regardless of how their résumés compare, it's possible that nothing short of an Ohio State loss (or a loss by Florida State) could get Auburn to the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings on Sunday. But this math is all based on the assumption that every voter has Ohio State and Auburn in the second and third spots on his/her ballot in either order, and we know that won't be the case, especially with both teams already receiving a few first-place votes (Ohio State 9, Auburn 3).
It would seem that for the Tigers to have any chance of gaining the big advantage they need in the polls, they would not only require many more first-place votes than they currently own, but they would also need OSU to be ranked outside the top three on quite a few ballots. And while that last sentence may reek of possible agenda voting, be aware that the final ballots of all voters are published. So, if anyone decides to, say, drop Ohio State to No. 8, it won't be done in anonymity.
Also be aware that agendas can work both ways, so any voter who doesn't want to see another SEC team in the BCS title game has equal opportunity to drop Auburn a few spots lower. Let's hope we don't see any such shenanigans when the final voting is revealed, but here's something to keep in mind. If foul play were to occur, it would seem more likely to be in the Harris poll, because those rankings were created by the BCS for the BCS and will never appear again after this season. That means that a Harris voter can submit a curious ballot and not have to worry about losing his/her vote next year because of it ... because all of them are losing their votes after this Sunday. Just throwing it out there.
All of this said, it seems reasonable that at least 90-something percent of voters will not participate in agenda voting. So if Ohio State controls its game against Michigan State and wins without any late drama, there's not much reason to believe that the final BCS margin between OSU and Auburn will be incredibly close.
What about Missouri?
Mizzou is the forgotten team in this week's conversations, but the Tigers have almost as good of a chance to reach the BCS title game as Auburn. Although Mizzou might not have a prayer of finishing ahead of an undefeated Ohio State, the Tigers should be comfortably in the BCS No. 2 spot if they win the SEC title, and either OSU or Florida State loses.
Understandably, Missouri fans have concern over Alabama being ranked one spot higher than their team in this week's standings, but that's a very narrow margin that will easily be overcome by the computer element alone if Mizzou beats Auburn. Alabama may have had some miraculous recoveries from November losses in previous seasons, but it'll take more than Ohio State and Auburn going down on the season's final day to get the Tide back in the mix.
Does Alabama have any chance to make the title game?
The only realistic scenario by which Alabama could still reach the BCS title game is for Florida State and Ohio State both to lose. In this case, the SEC champion would be in the national title game, and the second spot would likely go to either Bama or Oklahoma State (assuming a Cowboys win over Oklahoma). Some voters might also lean toward Michigan State or Baylor (if Oklahoma State were to lose), but those teams are unlikely to have the computer strength needed to make a serious run at the No. 2 spot.
Alabama versus Oklahoma State. Does that sound familiar? The records, résumés and arguments for and against these teams would be remarkably similar to what they were two years ago when the Tide earned the No. 2 spot to play LSU in the national title game, and if Bama were to prevail again, the BCS championship game would also be what it was a couple of years earlier: SEC vs. SEC.
Due to the incredible odds against Florida State losing to Duke, the national title game is obviously a long shot for the Crimson Tide. But while that possibility still exists, Alabama, believe it or not, is in contention for a spot in all five BCS games. This is partly due to the likelihood that the Tide will finish fourth in the BCS without being a conference champion, which would guarantee them an at-large spot in one of the major bowls.
It's hard to believe the BCS era will end quietly. Perhaps one more big surprise could be in store for us this weekend.
We should have known the Bowl Championship Series was bound to deliver at least a little shot of drama on its way out the door.
The stage doesn't appear to be set for one of the more epic final weekends in BCS history, but the fairly small margin between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Auburn in this week's standings has at least given us a story line worth following throughout the last few days of the season. For years, we've debated whether a one-loss SEC champion could finish ahead of an undefeated team from another major conference, and that debate is heating up again as the scenario finally plays out before our eyes.
Starting with the BCS numbers of Ohio State and Auburn, here's a look at some of the more interesting twists that this weekend could hold. We might as well cover all of the bases, since game results are sometimes unpredictable when BCS pressure mounts.
If both Auburn and Ohio State win, could the Tigers pass the Buckeyes in the BCS standings?
Remember, the BCS formula is two-thirds human polls (one-third each from the Harris poll and the coaches' poll) and one-third computers. Historically, it has been incredibly rare for a one-loss team to be ranked ahead of a major team with a perfect record in the final regular-season polls, so it would stand to reason that Auburn's best chance would be to have an edge over Ohio State in the computers and just get really close to the Buckeyes in the other two-thirds. But that scenario doesn't appear to be in the cards for the Tigers.
Because the computer algorithms, by BCS mandate, are not allowed to consider the scores of the games (margins of victory), there are very few variables to consider when predicting computer outcomes with so few games remaining. An Auburn win over Missouri would be worth more than an Ohio State win over Michigan State, but not by much. And Florida State, which is ranked near Auburn and OSU in several computers, will also upgrade its profile a little by beating Duke.
This week, Ohio State has a computer percentage of .96 (an average No. 2 ranking across the board), while Auburn has a percentage of .92 (an average ranking of third). My best guess is that wins by OSU, Auburn and FSU on Saturday would increase the Buckeyes' percentage to .97, and the Tigers' to .94 (dropping the Seminoles from .99 to .96). This means Auburn's best case seems to be a minor gain on Ohio State in the computers, but nowhere close to pulling even in that part of the BCS equation.
With those new computer numbers, we can calculate exactly how much of an edge Auburn will need over Ohio State in Sunday's polls to place ahead of the Buckeyes in the final BCS standings. The answer is that the Tigers will need to be ranked ahead of OSU on approximately 75 percent of the ballots. Right now, they appear to be ahead of the Buckeyes on slightly fewer than 25 percent.
Assuming there are some voters who are philosophically opposed to putting a one-loss team ahead of a major unbeaten team, regardless of how their résumés compare, it's possible that nothing short of an Ohio State loss (or a loss by Florida State) could get Auburn to the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings on Sunday. But this math is all based on the assumption that every voter has Ohio State and Auburn in the second and third spots on his/her ballot in either order, and we know that won't be the case, especially with both teams already receiving a few first-place votes (Ohio State 9, Auburn 3).
It would seem that for the Tigers to have any chance of gaining the big advantage they need in the polls, they would not only require many more first-place votes than they currently own, but they would also need OSU to be ranked outside the top three on quite a few ballots. And while that last sentence may reek of possible agenda voting, be aware that the final ballots of all voters are published. So, if anyone decides to, say, drop Ohio State to No. 8, it won't be done in anonymity.
Also be aware that agendas can work both ways, so any voter who doesn't want to see another SEC team in the BCS title game has equal opportunity to drop Auburn a few spots lower. Let's hope we don't see any such shenanigans when the final voting is revealed, but here's something to keep in mind. If foul play were to occur, it would seem more likely to be in the Harris poll, because those rankings were created by the BCS for the BCS and will never appear again after this season. That means that a Harris voter can submit a curious ballot and not have to worry about losing his/her vote next year because of it ... because all of them are losing their votes after this Sunday. Just throwing it out there.
All of this said, it seems reasonable that at least 90-something percent of voters will not participate in agenda voting. So if Ohio State controls its game against Michigan State and wins without any late drama, there's not much reason to believe that the final BCS margin between OSU and Auburn will be incredibly close.
What about Missouri?
Mizzou is the forgotten team in this week's conversations, but the Tigers have almost as good of a chance to reach the BCS title game as Auburn. Although Mizzou might not have a prayer of finishing ahead of an undefeated Ohio State, the Tigers should be comfortably in the BCS No. 2 spot if they win the SEC title, and either OSU or Florida State loses.
Understandably, Missouri fans have concern over Alabama being ranked one spot higher than their team in this week's standings, but that's a very narrow margin that will easily be overcome by the computer element alone if Mizzou beats Auburn. Alabama may have had some miraculous recoveries from November losses in previous seasons, but it'll take more than Ohio State and Auburn going down on the season's final day to get the Tide back in the mix.
Does Alabama have any chance to make the title game?
The only realistic scenario by which Alabama could still reach the BCS title game is for Florida State and Ohio State both to lose. In this case, the SEC champion would be in the national title game, and the second spot would likely go to either Bama or Oklahoma State (assuming a Cowboys win over Oklahoma). Some voters might also lean toward Michigan State or Baylor (if Oklahoma State were to lose), but those teams are unlikely to have the computer strength needed to make a serious run at the No. 2 spot.
Alabama versus Oklahoma State. Does that sound familiar? The records, résumés and arguments for and against these teams would be remarkably similar to what they were two years ago when the Tide earned the No. 2 spot to play LSU in the national title game, and if Bama were to prevail again, the BCS championship game would also be what it was a couple of years earlier: SEC vs. SEC.
Due to the incredible odds against Florida State losing to Duke, the national title game is obviously a long shot for the Crimson Tide. But while that possibility still exists, Alabama, believe it or not, is in contention for a spot in all five BCS games. This is partly due to the likelihood that the Tide will finish fourth in the BCS without being a conference champion, which would guarantee them an at-large spot in one of the major bowls.
It's hard to believe the BCS era will end quietly. Perhaps one more big surprise could be in store for us this weekend.
