Service Plays Monday 12/9/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Dallas at Chicago

The Cowboys travel to Chicago tonight to face a Bears team that is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games. Dallas is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+1). Here are all of this week's picks.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Monday, December 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (7 - 5) at CHICAGO (6 - 6) - 12/9/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Mon, Dec. 9

Dallas at Chicago, 8:40 ET
Dallas: 56-36 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season
Chicago: 1-8 ATS against conference opponents double digit favorite

NFL

Week 14

Trend Report

Monday, December 9

8:40 PM
DALLAS vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

R.a.w. Football

2* = chicago

Marc Lawrence

3* Chicago

Jimmy Boyd

3* Bears

Mike O'Connor

Bears

ER -Year to Date

This is posted on the "Memo" website right now. NOT by me, I do not post there. Posted by a paying customer:

Erin - what's up with your recent NBA plays? Heat lose by 25+ ATS at Chicago, Orlando loses by 35 ATS at NYK, then LAC last night? Now I see you picked another side for today... It looks like your hitting sides at around 30% and totals close to 67%!! If your total have been so good, why have you been playing sides for 4 days in the NBA? Really hope you have a winner and get back on track

Monday Night Football betting: Cowboys at Bears

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1, 48)

The margin for error is slim for the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears, who meet Monday night with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. The host Bears can't afford a third straight loss, as they trail Detroit by a game in the NFC North and lost both head-to-head meetings with the Lions. The Cowboys have won two straight and are tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East.

The Cowboys bolstered their playoff chances with a 31-24 win over Oakland on Thanksgiving, but they haven't had much luck in December - a month when quarterback Tony Romo is 11-15 as a starter. "It all comes with the dinner," Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters of the criticism of his quarterback. "He's got a position that is one of the great jobs on the planet. What comes with that is some of the scrutiny, and he understands that." The Bears won 34-18 last year in Dallas, intercepting Romo five times and taking two of them back for touchdowns.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at +1.5 and after some back and forth, the number has settled at +1. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high teens with a 12 mph wind blowing across the field.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-3) - Chicago (0) + home field (-3) = pk

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-5, 8-4 ATS): Dallas' playoff chances seemed slim after a 49-17 pummeling by New Orleans in Week 10, but the Cowboys have eked out close wins the past two weeks. The ground game has come to life with DeMarco Murray scoring a career-high three touchdowns against the Raiders, and that's likely to be a focus against the Bears' league-worst run defense. The defense has to be better in December, as the Cowboys rank last in the league in total yards allowed (421.6) and 22nd in scoring defense (25.3).

ABOUT THE BEARS (6-6, 2-9-1 ATS): Chicago's hopes of an NFC North title took a hit when Robbie Gould missed a potential game-winning field goal in a 23-20 overtime loss at Minnesota last week. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been ruled out for Sunday, meaning Josh McCown will make his fourth straight start and his fifth in six games. The defense has struggled, especially against the run, and linebacker Lance Briggs will miss his sixth straight game with a shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday night games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bears last five versus a team with a wining record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo has passed for 300 yards in all three games against Chicago.

2. Chicago RB Matt Forte needs 29 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the fourth time in his career.

3. McCown has passed for 1,461 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception and boasts a 103.6 rating.

Tale of the tape: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Dallas travel to Chicago for a Monday night matchup with two teams struggling defensively. The Bears playoff hopes are still alive and the Cowboys try to hang on to the NFC's 4th seed.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Cowboys suffered a tough loss last week with Lance Dunbar out for the season. The Cowboys are ranked 3rd in the NFL with 27.4 points per game and 15th in passing yards at 243.3. Tony Romo has completed 64.8 percent of his passes with a ratio of 24 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. The Cowboys have not been very good rushing the ball ranking 27th. They have not attempted a single 4th down this year, and are only completing 35 percent of their 3rd down conversion attempts.

Led by Josh McCown, the Bears come in to Week 14 ranking 5th in total points scored with 26.9. McCown has completed 65.2 percent of his passes with a ratio of 9 TD to 1 INT. The Bears are ranked 8th in the league in total yards and have receiver Alshon Jeffery comes off a career best performance last week with 12 receptions for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeffery has had a consistent year and alongside Brandon Marshall, the Cowboys secondary could be in for a very long day. When they are not throwing the ball, Chicago still has Matt Forte in the backfield having a great year, only 29 yards short of his fourth 1000 yard rushing season.

Edge: Chicago Bears

Defense

The Cowboys defense come in to Week 14 allowing the most yards in the NFL per game with 421.6. The Cowboys defense are 8th in the league in total tackles (622) despite their inability to pressure quarterbacks and get sacks. The Cowboys have struggled giving up 126.7 rushing yards per game and are ranked 30th in total passing yards per game allowing 294.9. In a 3week span, the Cowboys have given up over 600 yards of offense in games to the Lions and Saints.

The Bears defense are ranked 14th in the NFL against the pass and dead last against the run. Without Lance Briggs, Chicago will continue to struggle bringing pressure and getting sacks. The Bears defense have allowed the most runs of 20 or more yards in the NFL with 15. The Bears have been great at forcing fumbles ranking 2nd in the league with 19 forced fumbles and 8 recovered. The Bears defense have 4 interceptions returned for touchdowns ranking them 1st overall.

Edge: Chicago Bears

Special Teams

The Cowboys special teams unit have allowed only five returns longer than 30 yards. Dwyane Harris is 2nd in the NFL in averaging 31.3 average yards per kickoff return and 2nd with 14 average yards per punt return. Harris has a return for 90 yards and has been a lethal weapon for the Cowboys. Harris is questionable for Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. Kicker Dan Bailey is 19/21 in field goals made with a long of 53 yards. Bailey is a perfect 6/6 in field goals made from 40 - 49 yards.

The Bears have started 18 drives inside their 20, the second most inside the 20 drives In the league. The Bears lead the NFL with seven returns of less than 10 yards. They have allowed a league low 12 returns for 109 yards. Kicker Robbie Gould has made 21/24 field goals with a long of 58.

Edge: Chicago Bears

Notable Quotable

"I think it's real," Jones said. "I don't mean to be trite, but you can probably tie that to why we have had disappointments in December. In this time of the NFL, it's hard to build up enough edge to play at that level during December, so you'd better be having your arrow going up rather than going down. – Jerry Jones on the Cowboys 25-41 record in December.

“It still is a great franchise. You grew up watching those guys and knew how great their defenses are,” Murray said. “They have a lot of pride, Monday night game, so definitely don’t take anything for granted. I know they’re going to be ready to play.” – DeMarco Murray on the Chicago Bears defense.

Swansea v Hull City: What bettors need to know

The final matchup in this round of Premier League fixtures has Swansea hosting Hull City.

Swansea v Hull (-138, +275, +450)

Why bet Swansea: This is a club with several key players out with injury, yet has won two of three matches and looks poised to leap into the top-half of the table. Michu, Bony, Angel Rangel - all out, yet the Swans are coming off a 3-0 pasting of one of the hottest clubs in the league in Newcastle United. They're unbeaten in their last four at home and playmaker Jonjo Shelvey will look to continue his stellar form.

Key players out/doubtful: Álvaro, Michu, Wilfried Bony, Angel Rarngel

Why bet Hull: There is little doubt that the Tigers are the best of the three promoted clubs but have faltered of late. The club has managed just a pair of wins in their last eight matches and still has just one win away from home. As the central-mid pairing of Tom Huddleston and Jake Livermore go, so go the Tigers, but it's time for striker Danny Graham to step his game up. The ex-Swan would love to get one against his former club.

Key players out/doubtful: Sone Aluko, Paul McShane, Stephen Quinn

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Swansea has played over the 2.5 goal total in seven of their last eight home games.

Bank shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Dec. 1 to 7.

Hottest ATS - Detroit Pistons (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

The Pistons have really revved up their game of late, winning four games in a row, which included a three game road trip with stops in Miami and Chicago. Detroit has now covered in six of the past eight games and are in second place in the Central Division. Andre Drummond has been an absolute monster for the Pistons during the winning streak, averaging 18.3 points and 17.5 rebounds per game. This week the Pistons host a rematch with the Heat, then they face off against Minnesota at home, before heading on the road to take on New Orleans and then Brooklyn back at home.

Coldest ATS - Philadelphia 76ers (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

After the 76ers impressive start to the season, they have really struggled of late, winning only once in their past seven games and they haven't covered the spread six games in a row. On defense the Sixers are giving up a league worst 110.2 points per game and are the second to last team in the league when it comes to defensive rebounding. At the offensive end the Sixers are really struggling to sink the 3-ball, only shooting 32 percent from downtown. This week the Sixers host the L.A. Clippers, then go on the road to face Minnesota and Toronto, before returning home to take on Portland.

Best Over play - Portland Trail Blazers (4-1 SU, 5-0 O/U)

The Blazers continue to play great basketball after notching wins against top contenders Oklahoma City and Indiana this week. Portland now sits atop the Northwest Division with a 17-4 record and are the second highest scoring team in the NBA, netting 106.2 points per game. In fact,they also rank in the top 10 in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage and offensive rebounds per game. The Blazers will look to hit the Over for the seventh time in a row this week when they take on Utah, before matchups with Houston and Philadelphia.

Best Under play - Charlotte Bobcats (1-2 SU, 1-2 O/U)

Despite the fact the Bobcats hit the over once this week, they are still the best Under play in the NBA this season and are the best Under play in Bank Shots two weeks in a row. The Bobcats have done this by going 11-1-1 O/U in their last 13 games and that trend should still be a solid play going forward thanks to their combination of good defense and lousy offense. The Bobcats are second in the league in points against per game at 91.5, but are dead last in points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. This week the Bobcats face Golden State, Orlando, Indiana and the L.A. Lakers.

Surveying the Schedule:

Can we just fast forward to the Eastern Conference Final please? The Miami Heat at 15-5 and the Indiana Pacers at 18-2 are clearly the class of the conference and it would be nice if we could skip past all these needless regular season games and jump straight to the playoffs. The two teams meet on Tuesday in Miami for the first time since the Heat eliminated the Pacers in last year's conference finals. The Heat are 10-10 ATS and 11-9 O/U, while the Pacers are now a league best 15-5 ATS and 7-13 O/U.

Pucking the trends: NHL's weekly betting news and notes.

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Dec. 2 - Dec. 8.

Hot team

Montreal Canadiens (4-0 SU)

The Canadiens have ripped off five wins in a row, including an impressive win against Boston and have now surpassed the Bruins for first place in the Atlantic. A big reason for Montreal's current success is not surprisingly the play of Carey Price. Price has won his last seven starts a is on a current run where he has allowed less than two goals in each of his last 10 starts. The competition gets a little stiffer for the Habs this week when they take on the Los Angeles Kings and then travel to Philadelphia to take on the resurgent Flyers.

Cold Team

Nashville Predators (0-3 SU)

The Predators have seemed a little toothless lately, losing five straight games, four of which were at home. The skid has landed the Predators in last place in the Central. Nashville has clearly missed the presence of Pekka Rinne between the pipes, as they are giving up at least three goals a game in the past five games. But Nashville has struggled even more at putting the puck in the net, and have scored just over 1 goal a game during the current losing streak. This week the Preds have matchups against the New York Rangers, Dallas and San Jose.

Best Over play

San Jose Sharks (3-1 O/U)

Despite failing to hit the Over on Sunday at Minnesota, the Sharks have been a great play in that regard this season. They have the league's third best record against the Over so far this season thanks to an offense that loves to pepper the net with shots. In fact, the Sharks lead the NHL in shots on goal at a whopping 36 per game. They are also third in the league in goals per game at 3.3. The Sharks are back in action this week with a mini two game home stand against the New York Islanders and a rematch with Minnesota.

Best Under play

Tampa Bay Lightning (0-3 O/U)

Do you think the Lightning miss Steven Stamkos? The Lightning have only averaged 1.9 goals over their last 10 games and he still leads the Bolts in goals even though he has been out of their lineup for almost a month. Tampa bay has lost three of the last four and seven of their last 10. A bright spot for the Lightning has been goaltender Ben Bishop. He is tied for fourth in the league with 15 wins and has a goals against average under two. This week the Lightning travel to Washington and host Detroit before starting a three game road trip.

Surveying the schedule:

If the New York Rangers want to make a move up in the standings the time is now. The Rangers are in the midst of an eight game home stand that they need to take advantage of. It did not get off to a great start with a 4-3 loss versus New Jersey, but a hapless trio of Nashville, Columbus and Calgary all make stops to Madison Square Garden this week.

Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole

SINGLE PLAY:
•Chicago PICK Dallas

Prediction Machine

MNF
*Chicago Bears +1.5 vs Dallas Cowboys (Covers 57.5%), OVER 49.5 (Covers 58.9%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Dallas 26.8 - Chicago 29.0
SU Pick and Win%: Chicago wins 54.2%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #12
ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears +1.5 covers 57.5%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
ATS Wager for $50 player: $54
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (49.5) 58.9%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $68

Jay Cutler will not play Monday versus Cowboys

According to Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman, quarterback Jay Cutler will not play against the Dallas Cowboys Monday night.

Cutler has missed the previous three games with a high ankle sprain he picked up against the Detroit Lions on Nov. 10.

Josh McCown will get the start and has quarterbacked the Bears to a 1-2 SU record over his past three starts and is 0-3 ATS over that stretch.

According to Peter Korner of the Las Vegas based odds service The Sports Club, the Bears don't lose much with McCown under center.

“I don’t think there’s much of a difference. Talent wise there is between Cutler and McCown, but I don’t think (Cutler being active) will cause a huge rush to the windows,” says Korner.

The Sports Nostradamus

Cowboys

Chicago Syndicate

NFL Under Bears

NBA Under Grizzlies