[h=1]MNF Chaser: How to bet DAL-CHI[/h][h=3]Tonight's pick, where money was made in Week 14 and early lines[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The Dallas Cowboys visit the Chicago Bears on ESPN's "Monday Night Football" in a game oozing with playoff implications. The Bears (6-6) need a win to catch the Detroit Lions (7-6) in the NFC North, especially since they lost both head-to-head meetings and need to finish ahead of the Lions to win the division, while the Cowboys (7-5) are trying to catch the Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) in the NFC East. Tonight's loser will still have a chance to win its division, but it can probably kiss its wild-card chances goodbye. For those wanting to exhaust all playoff scenarios, a tie would leave it half a game back.
The Cowboys have been good to bettors all season at 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and, in fact, can tie the Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals for the league's best ATS record (see the NFL ATS Standings below) by covering on Monday night. The Bears, meanwhile, have been the league's worst bet at 2-8-2 ATS.
This game opened pick 'em at the LVH SuperBook a week ago Sunday afternoon, and a few books (MGM, Caesars and South Point) went with Bears minus-1 when they posted a line in the middle of the week. However, it's been a steady stream of money on the Cowboys, and they're a consensus 1-point road favorite as of early Monday morning. The forecast calls for a game-time temperature in the mid-teens with a 13 mph crosswind. The over/under has been bet down slightly from 49 to 48.
Let's take a look at how three Vegas handicappers are betting the game tonight, the early line moves for Week 15 and the biggest gambling takeaways from the weekend.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears[/h]
Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Cowboys minus-1
Total: Opened 49; now 48
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[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Sal Selvaggio says:<OFFER> "I've said on these pages before that Dallas is extremely overrated and has been lucky most of the season, so it shouldn't come to anyone's surprise that I will be on Chicago Monday night. Chicago isn't anything special and has been a 'play-against' team recently because it has really been banged up, but small pieces are starting to get healthy and returning to the lineup. My math model has the Bears favored by four points, and they qualify in a couple of good situations that are 103-56 ATS and a Monday night situation that is 33-6 ATS. Weather will be cold and windy, typical Bears weather this time of year, and this feels like a situation where Chicago gets the monster effort and keeps its playoff hopes alive."</OFFER>
ATS pick: Bears
Dave Tuley: "Home teams -- even small favorites as the Bears opened minus-1 at a lot of books -- usually get the action on Monday night, but the early support has come in on the Cowboys and I believe the money is on the right side. The Bears defense can't stop the run [allowing a league-worst 153.6 rushing yards per game] and that doesn't help Chicago with DeMarco Murray playing a larger role in the Cowboys' attack. The Cowboys defense certainly gives up its share of yards and points, too, but the way these teams have been playing lately, I trust the Cowboys more to pull out a close game, even though I know the calendar has turned to December for Tony Romo and the Cowboys."
ATS pick: Cowboys
Wunderdog says: "Since Romo took over for the Cowboys, the last part of the season has plagued them. In September, October and November games since 2006, the Cowboys are 56-35 straight-up and 48-42-1 ATS. In December/January games, they are 16-21 SU and 13-24 ATS. When not getting points in these late months, Dallas is 6-18 ATS. That being said, the Cowboys face a bad Bears defense here, one that is allowing 386 yards and 28 points per game. The Bears have not fared much better in December of late, going 1-8 ATS in such games the past couple of seasons. This game feels like a toss-up to me, and I don't see much value either way."
ATS pick: Pass
[h=3]Wrapping up Week 14[/h]
Heading into the Monday night game, favorites have won 13 of the 15 games this week with the Jacksonville Jaguars (over the Houston Texans on Thursday) and the Miami Dolphins (over the Pittsburgh Steelers) as the only teams to pull outright upsets. Favorites are 9-6 ATS as the Ravens, Patriots, Packers and 49ers all won their games as faves but failed to cover the spread. Home teams were also 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS, as the only home underdogs were the aforementioned winning Jaguars and the Washington Redskins, who were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs. Those canceled each other out, so home teams and faves posted the same record. Overs are 10-5 heading into Monday night (more on that after this break to update the season-to-date betting results):
Favorites: 142-61 SU, 103-96-4 (51.8 percent) ... four games have closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 126-77-1 SU, 112-88-4 ATS (56 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London; one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 27-42 SU, 37-31-1 ATS (54.4 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 6-18 SU, 15-9 ATS (62.5 percent)
Over/unders: 109-93-5 (54 percent)
[h=3]Tuley's takeaways from Week 14[/h]
1. Bad weather does not automatically mean lower scoring
Bettors woke up Sunday morning to reports of bad weather for most of the games back East. They were cutting in line to bet the unders and the sports books here were adjusting those totals downward, but that still didn't stop the avalanche. Early on, it looked like the right way to bet as the games in Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia all looked like stone-cold unders. That was especially true of the game in Philly, which had an over/under of 50.5 but the Lions led 8-0 at halftime as they went for a 2-point conversion on their first TD because there was too much snow on the ground to attempt a kick. But the Eagles scored five second-half touchdowns, including 28 points in the fourth quarter, and were 2-for-5 on their 2-point conversions as they won 34-20 and the total landed on the 54 that was the over/under before the adjustment. The other games in the northeast also all went over (and seemed just as unlikely). When the snow had all thawed (coining a new phrase instead of "the dust had all settled"), overs were 7-2 in the early games on Sunday with the only unders being in Green Bay and Tampa Bay. So just let it be a warning to you the next time you hear about a bad weather forecast and immediately rush to bet the under.
2. NFC West is pretty good
Do you remember just three years ago when the NFC West (commonly called the NFC Worst at the time) didn't have a single team at .500 as the Seahawks won the division with a 7-9 record? The next year none of the teams' over/under win totals were above .500 either. Well, here we are with the Seahawks and 49ers heading toward the playoffs as two of the NFL's elite teams, and if you look at the NFL ATS Standings, it's kind of amazing (at least to me) that the top three teams are all from the same division with the Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals all 9-4 ATS. If you take away their games against each other (which obviously drag down the winning percentage), they're 23-8 ATS (74.2 percent) against the rest of the league, and the Seahawks also have a non-cover against the Rams, the fourth team in NFC West.
3. Broncos still best over bet; Panthers best with under
The Broncos, who started the season with eight straight overs before staying under for two straight, went over for the third straight game to improve to 11-2 with the over. The Vikings are next at 9-3-1 with the over while the Rams, who have gone under in two straight games, have dropped to 9-4. The Panthers, despite failing to cover in their 31-13 loss at New Orleans on Sunday night, did come through with their sixth straight under to improve to a league-best 9-3-1 with the under. The Saints are actually second-best with the under at 8-4-1 with the 49ers the only other team hitting above 60 percent with the unders at 8-5, as they stayed under for their fifth straight game in their 19-17 win over the Seahawks.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, the LVH put up its Week 15 openers, including those involving teams still playing on Sunday and Monday night. Despite there being a number of high-profile injuries on Sunday (Denver's Wes Welker, New England's Rob Gronkowski, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson), the only game kept off the board at the LVH was Green Bay-Dallas as oddsmakers wait to see if Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is finally cleared to play.
[h=3]Early Week 15 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
Chargers at Broncos minus-10.5 (Thursday): The LVH had the advance line on this game last week as Broncos minus-11, but even though the Broncos ended up blowing out the Titans, the Chargers routed the Giants to keep their playoff hopes alive. The line was re-opened Sunday afternoon at the LVH and the CRIS offshore book at 10.5. Both books were bet down to 10, which was where the Wynn opened it, though they were bet up to 10.5. So, it looks like this line will settle at 10 early in the week, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the public push it back higher toward game day.
Redskins at Falcons minus-4.5: This was Falcons minus-2.5 (minus-120) on the LVH's advance line, but after the Redskins were blown out by the Chiefs and the Falcons covered their third straight despite losing to the Packers, this went up to minus-4.5 at the LVH and minus-3.5 offshore. By the close of betting Sunday night, this had steamed to 5.5 at just about every book that posts early lines, as no one is looking to bet the Redskins. Betting hasn't slowed yet, but I'm guessing it won't get to 7 (or at least not without some heavy juice).
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 15 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chargers (Thursday)
Broncos -10.5
Redskins
Falcons -4.5
49ers -5.5
Buccaneers
Cardinals -3
Titans
Saints -6
Rams
Seahawks -7
Giants
Bears
Browns -2
Texans
Colts -6
Bills -1.5
Jaguars
Patriots -2.5
Dolphins
Eagles -4
Vikings
Jets
Panthers -10.5
Chiefs -3.5
Raiders
Packers
Cowboys OFF
Bengals -3 EV
Steelers
Ravens (Monday)
Lions -6
<!-- end inline 3 -->49ers minus-5.5 at Buccaneers: This was at minus-6 last week and even though the 49ers gutted out a win over the Seahawks (though they didn't cover the 2.5-point spread), this line was re-opened at minus-5.5. Part of that is due to the Buccaneers covering four of their last five and being more competitive. Still, the 49ers are more of a public team, so this will probably go back to 6.
Cardinals minus-3 at Titans: This opened Cardinals minus-1.5 but was reposted at 3 after Arizona's rout of the Rams while the Titans were blown out by the Broncos. It was bet down to 2.5 at the LVH, so I expect this to waver between 2.5 and 3 most of the week.
Saints minus-6 at Rams: This was put up at the LVH on Sunday afternoon (and kept off the board everywhere else), so we'll see if it indeed goes higher.
Seahawks minus-7 at Giants: This was Seahawks minus-5.5 last week, but after the Giants were blown out by the Chargers and the Seahawks lost their close game to the 49ers, this was increased to minus-7 at the LVH. The Wynn went with minus-7 (even money) -- and that's where the LVH moved the line after early bettering -- while William Hill went with 6.5. This will probably hover between 6.5 and 7.
Bears at Browns minus-2: The LVH kept this advance line off the board last week, but went with Browns minus-2 after their near upset of the Patriots. Most books kept this off the board, so we'll see how Monday night's game impacts the line.
Texans at Colts minus-6: This was 6.5 last week at the LVH, but after both teams lost (though one would think the Texans' loss to the Jaguars was worse than the Colts' loss to the Bengals), the LVH adjusted to Colts minus-6 (the same number the Wynn opened with) while CRIS went with 6.5. Earlier in the year, I would have predicted that the public would push this line to 7, but now it looks like we'll see it settle at 6 or 6.5.
Bills minus-1.5 at Jaguars: This was Bills minus-2.5 last week but the Jags beat the Texans and the Bills were blown out by the Buccaneers, so it was reopened at 1.5 though other books opted for 2. The initial move at the LVH was up to 2, though I wouldn't be surprised if it got bet back toward pick 'em. Patriots minus-2.5 at Dolphins: This was Patriots minus-4 but they struggled to beat the Browns and lost Gronkowski, plus the Dolphins kept their playoff hoped alive, so this dropped to 2.5. I can't see how this doesn't get bet back to the key number of 3.
Eagles minus-4 at Vikings: This has jumped from Eagles minus-3 last week to reopening minus-4 at the LVH. It was then bet up to 4.5 before snapping back to 4, so that looks like the right number at least for now. Jets at Panthers minus-10.5: This was minus-10 last week and actually increased to 10.5 despite the Jets rolling over the Raiders and staying in the AFC wild-card race. Most books had it off the board with the Panthers playing Sunday night, so we'll see if it drops back to 10 later Monday morning.
Chiefs minus-3.5 at Raiders: This looks like the most solid line of the week at minus-3.5. Some books have heavier juice on those taking the Raiders plus-3.5, but they'll probably be reluctant to move to 3, and if they do it won't last long.
Packers at Cowboys OFF: As stated in the "Off-the-Board Report" above, this is the only game the LVH kept off the board due to Rodgers' uncertain status. Most other books wouldn't have posted anything anyway with the Cowboys playing Monday night.
Bengals minus-3 (even money) at Steelers: This was only Bengals minus-1 last week, but it reopened at 3 (with added juice on the Steelers plus-3) after Cincinnati's convincing win over the Colts and the Steelers' loss to the Dolphins. Some offshores went with 2.5, so it should hover between 2.5 and 3 until the market picks a side.
Ravens at Lions minus-6 (Monday): The advance line was Lions minus-4 but went up Sunday afternoon at Lions minus-6. CRIS went with 5.5 and got bet up to 6, so it's looking like a pretty solid number.
So there's the opening look at the Week 15 lines. Join us Thursday (moved up from its previous Friday spot) for our "Tuley's Take" column as we look at how the public and wiseguys view this weekend's action and I give my "take" on each game after the lines have settled.
LAS VEGAS -- The Dallas Cowboys visit the Chicago Bears on ESPN's "Monday Night Football" in a game oozing with playoff implications. The Bears (6-6) need a win to catch the Detroit Lions (7-6) in the NFC North, especially since they lost both head-to-head meetings and need to finish ahead of the Lions to win the division, while the Cowboys (7-5) are trying to catch the Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) in the NFC East. Tonight's loser will still have a chance to win its division, but it can probably kiss its wild-card chances goodbye. For those wanting to exhaust all playoff scenarios, a tie would leave it half a game back.
The Cowboys have been good to bettors all season at 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and, in fact, can tie the Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals for the league's best ATS record (see the NFL ATS Standings below) by covering on Monday night. The Bears, meanwhile, have been the league's worst bet at 2-8-2 ATS.
This game opened pick 'em at the LVH SuperBook a week ago Sunday afternoon, and a few books (MGM, Caesars and South Point) went with Bears minus-1 when they posted a line in the middle of the week. However, it's been a steady stream of money on the Cowboys, and they're a consensus 1-point road favorite as of early Monday morning. The forecast calls for a game-time temperature in the mid-teens with a 13 mph crosswind. The over/under has been bet down slightly from 49 to 48.
Let's take a look at how three Vegas handicappers are betting the game tonight, the early line moves for Week 15 and the biggest gambling takeaways from the weekend.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears[/h]
Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Cowboys minus-1
Total: Opened 49; now 48
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[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Sal Selvaggio says:<OFFER> "I've said on these pages before that Dallas is extremely overrated and has been lucky most of the season, so it shouldn't come to anyone's surprise that I will be on Chicago Monday night. Chicago isn't anything special and has been a 'play-against' team recently because it has really been banged up, but small pieces are starting to get healthy and returning to the lineup. My math model has the Bears favored by four points, and they qualify in a couple of good situations that are 103-56 ATS and a Monday night situation that is 33-6 ATS. Weather will be cold and windy, typical Bears weather this time of year, and this feels like a situation where Chicago gets the monster effort and keeps its playoff hopes alive."</OFFER>
ATS pick: Bears
Dave Tuley: "Home teams -- even small favorites as the Bears opened minus-1 at a lot of books -- usually get the action on Monday night, but the early support has come in on the Cowboys and I believe the money is on the right side. The Bears defense can't stop the run [allowing a league-worst 153.6 rushing yards per game] and that doesn't help Chicago with DeMarco Murray playing a larger role in the Cowboys' attack. The Cowboys defense certainly gives up its share of yards and points, too, but the way these teams have been playing lately, I trust the Cowboys more to pull out a close game, even though I know the calendar has turned to December for Tony Romo and the Cowboys."
ATS pick: Cowboys
Wunderdog says: "Since Romo took over for the Cowboys, the last part of the season has plagued them. In September, October and November games since 2006, the Cowboys are 56-35 straight-up and 48-42-1 ATS. In December/January games, they are 16-21 SU and 13-24 ATS. When not getting points in these late months, Dallas is 6-18 ATS. That being said, the Cowboys face a bad Bears defense here, one that is allowing 386 yards and 28 points per game. The Bears have not fared much better in December of late, going 1-8 ATS in such games the past couple of seasons. This game feels like a toss-up to me, and I don't see much value either way."
ATS pick: Pass
Heading into the Monday night game, favorites have won 13 of the 15 games this week with the Jacksonville Jaguars (over the Houston Texans on Thursday) and the Miami Dolphins (over the Pittsburgh Steelers) as the only teams to pull outright upsets. Favorites are 9-6 ATS as the Ravens, Patriots, Packers and 49ers all won their games as faves but failed to cover the spread. Home teams were also 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS, as the only home underdogs were the aforementioned winning Jaguars and the Washington Redskins, who were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs. Those canceled each other out, so home teams and faves posted the same record. Overs are 10-5 heading into Monday night (more on that after this break to update the season-to-date betting results):
Favorites: 142-61 SU, 103-96-4 (51.8 percent) ... four games have closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 126-77-1 SU, 112-88-4 ATS (56 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London; one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 27-42 SU, 37-31-1 ATS (54.4 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 6-18 SU, 15-9 ATS (62.5 percent)
Over/unders: 109-93-5 (54 percent)
[h=3]Tuley's takeaways from Week 14[/h]
1. Bad weather does not automatically mean lower scoring
Bettors woke up Sunday morning to reports of bad weather for most of the games back East. They were cutting in line to bet the unders and the sports books here were adjusting those totals downward, but that still didn't stop the avalanche. Early on, it looked like the right way to bet as the games in Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia all looked like stone-cold unders. That was especially true of the game in Philly, which had an over/under of 50.5 but the Lions led 8-0 at halftime as they went for a 2-point conversion on their first TD because there was too much snow on the ground to attempt a kick. But the Eagles scored five second-half touchdowns, including 28 points in the fourth quarter, and were 2-for-5 on their 2-point conversions as they won 34-20 and the total landed on the 54 that was the over/under before the adjustment. The other games in the northeast also all went over (and seemed just as unlikely). When the snow had all thawed (coining a new phrase instead of "the dust had all settled"), overs were 7-2 in the early games on Sunday with the only unders being in Green Bay and Tampa Bay. So just let it be a warning to you the next time you hear about a bad weather forecast and immediately rush to bet the under.
2. NFC West is pretty good
Do you remember just three years ago when the NFC West (commonly called the NFC Worst at the time) didn't have a single team at .500 as the Seahawks won the division with a 7-9 record? The next year none of the teams' over/under win totals were above .500 either. Well, here we are with the Seahawks and 49ers heading toward the playoffs as two of the NFL's elite teams, and if you look at the NFL ATS Standings, it's kind of amazing (at least to me) that the top three teams are all from the same division with the Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals all 9-4 ATS. If you take away their games against each other (which obviously drag down the winning percentage), they're 23-8 ATS (74.2 percent) against the rest of the league, and the Seahawks also have a non-cover against the Rams, the fourth team in NFC West.
3. Broncos still best over bet; Panthers best with under
The Broncos, who started the season with eight straight overs before staying under for two straight, went over for the third straight game to improve to 11-2 with the over. The Vikings are next at 9-3-1 with the over while the Rams, who have gone under in two straight games, have dropped to 9-4. The Panthers, despite failing to cover in their 31-13 loss at New Orleans on Sunday night, did come through with their sixth straight under to improve to a league-best 9-3-1 with the under. The Saints are actually second-best with the under at 8-4-1 with the 49ers the only other team hitting above 60 percent with the unders at 8-5, as they stayed under for their fifth straight game in their 19-17 win over the Seahawks.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com all records based on VFV Consensus Closing Lines; teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record then ATS streak; O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks (11-2) | 9-4 | W4 | 6-7 | U2 |
| San Francisco 49ers (9-4) | 9-4 | L1 | 5-8 | U5 |
| Arizona Cardinals (8-5) | 9-4 | W4 | 6-7 | U2 |
| Dallas Cowboys (7-5) | 8-4 | L1 | 6-5-1 | O1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) | 8-4-1 | W3 | 7-6 | O1 |
| Carolina Panthers (9-4) | 8-5 | L1 | 3-9-1 | U6 |
| Oakland Raiders (4-9) | 8-5 | L1 | 6-6-1 | O2 |
| Denver Broncos (11-2) | 8-5 | W2 | 11-2 | O3 |
| Miami Dolphins (7-6) | 8-5 | W4 | 6-6-1 | O1 |
| San Diego Chargers (6-7) | 7-5-1 | W1 | 6-7 | O1 |
| Tennessee Titans (5-8) | 6-5-2 | L2 | 8-4-1 | O1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) | 7-6 | W1 | 5-8 | O3 |
| New Orleans Saints (10-3) | 7-6 | W1 | 4-8-1 | U4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) | 7-6 | W1 | 7-6 | O1 |
| New York Jets (6-7) | 7-6 | W1 | 7-5-1 | O1 |
| Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1) | 7-6 | W3 | 9-3-1 | O1 |
| Indianapolis Colts (8-5) | 6-6-1 | L1 | 8-5 | O1 |
| Baltimore Ravens (7-6) | 6-6-1 | L2 | 6-7 | O2 |
| New England Patriots (10-3) | 6-7 | L2 | 7-6 | O3 |
| Detroit Lions (7-6) | 6-7 | L1 | 8-5 | O2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) | 6-7 | L1 | 6-7 | O2 |
| Cleveland Browns (4-9) | 6-7 | W1 | 8-5 | O2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) | 6-7 | W1 | 6-7 | U3 |
| Buffalo Bills (4-9) | 6-7 | L2 | 7-5-1 | U1 |
| New York Giants (5-8) | 5-8 | L1 | 6-6-1 | O1 |
| St. Louis Rams (5-8) | 5-8 | L2 | 9-4 | U2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) | 5-8 | W3 | 8-5 | O2 |
| Atlanta Falcons (3-10) | 5-8 | W3 | 7-6 | U1 |
| Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) | 4-9 | L6 | 6-7 | U1 |
| Washington Redskins (3-10) | 3-10 | L5 | 7-6 | O1 |
| Houston Texans (2-11) | 3-10 | L1 | 9-4 | O2 |
| Chicago Bears (6-6) | 2-8-2 | L2 | 8-4 | U2 |
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, the LVH put up its Week 15 openers, including those involving teams still playing on Sunday and Monday night. Despite there being a number of high-profile injuries on Sunday (Denver's Wes Welker, New England's Rob Gronkowski, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson), the only game kept off the board at the LVH was Green Bay-Dallas as oddsmakers wait to see if Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is finally cleared to play.
[h=3]Early Week 15 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
Chargers at Broncos minus-10.5 (Thursday): The LVH had the advance line on this game last week as Broncos minus-11, but even though the Broncos ended up blowing out the Titans, the Chargers routed the Giants to keep their playoff hopes alive. The line was re-opened Sunday afternoon at the LVH and the CRIS offshore book at 10.5. Both books were bet down to 10, which was where the Wynn opened it, though they were bet up to 10.5. So, it looks like this line will settle at 10 early in the week, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the public push it back higher toward game day.
Redskins at Falcons minus-4.5: This was Falcons minus-2.5 (minus-120) on the LVH's advance line, but after the Redskins were blown out by the Chiefs and the Falcons covered their third straight despite losing to the Packers, this went up to minus-4.5 at the LVH and minus-3.5 offshore. By the close of betting Sunday night, this had steamed to 5.5 at just about every book that posts early lines, as no one is looking to bet the Redskins. Betting hasn't slowed yet, but I'm guessing it won't get to 7 (or at least not without some heavy juice).
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 15 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chargers (Thursday)
Broncos -10.5
Redskins
Falcons -4.5
49ers -5.5
Buccaneers
Cardinals -3
Titans
Saints -6
Rams
Seahawks -7
Giants
Bears
Browns -2
Texans
Colts -6
Bills -1.5
Jaguars
Patriots -2.5
Dolphins
Eagles -4
Vikings
Jets
Panthers -10.5
Chiefs -3.5
Raiders
Packers
Cowboys OFF
Bengals -3 EV
Steelers
Ravens (Monday)
Lions -6
<!-- end inline 3 -->49ers minus-5.5 at Buccaneers: This was at minus-6 last week and even though the 49ers gutted out a win over the Seahawks (though they didn't cover the 2.5-point spread), this line was re-opened at minus-5.5. Part of that is due to the Buccaneers covering four of their last five and being more competitive. Still, the 49ers are more of a public team, so this will probably go back to 6.
Cardinals minus-3 at Titans: This opened Cardinals minus-1.5 but was reposted at 3 after Arizona's rout of the Rams while the Titans were blown out by the Broncos. It was bet down to 2.5 at the LVH, so I expect this to waver between 2.5 and 3 most of the week.
Saints minus-6 at Rams: This was put up at the LVH on Sunday afternoon (and kept off the board everywhere else), so we'll see if it indeed goes higher.
Seahawks minus-7 at Giants: This was Seahawks minus-5.5 last week, but after the Giants were blown out by the Chargers and the Seahawks lost their close game to the 49ers, this was increased to minus-7 at the LVH. The Wynn went with minus-7 (even money) -- and that's where the LVH moved the line after early bettering -- while William Hill went with 6.5. This will probably hover between 6.5 and 7.
Bears at Browns minus-2: The LVH kept this advance line off the board last week, but went with Browns minus-2 after their near upset of the Patriots. Most books kept this off the board, so we'll see how Monday night's game impacts the line.
Texans at Colts minus-6: This was 6.5 last week at the LVH, but after both teams lost (though one would think the Texans' loss to the Jaguars was worse than the Colts' loss to the Bengals), the LVH adjusted to Colts minus-6 (the same number the Wynn opened with) while CRIS went with 6.5. Earlier in the year, I would have predicted that the public would push this line to 7, but now it looks like we'll see it settle at 6 or 6.5.
Bills minus-1.5 at Jaguars: This was Bills minus-2.5 last week but the Jags beat the Texans and the Bills were blown out by the Buccaneers, so it was reopened at 1.5 though other books opted for 2. The initial move at the LVH was up to 2, though I wouldn't be surprised if it got bet back toward pick 'em. Patriots minus-2.5 at Dolphins: This was Patriots minus-4 but they struggled to beat the Browns and lost Gronkowski, plus the Dolphins kept their playoff hoped alive, so this dropped to 2.5. I can't see how this doesn't get bet back to the key number of 3.
Eagles minus-4 at Vikings: This has jumped from Eagles minus-3 last week to reopening minus-4 at the LVH. It was then bet up to 4.5 before snapping back to 4, so that looks like the right number at least for now. Jets at Panthers minus-10.5: This was minus-10 last week and actually increased to 10.5 despite the Jets rolling over the Raiders and staying in the AFC wild-card race. Most books had it off the board with the Panthers playing Sunday night, so we'll see if it drops back to 10 later Monday morning.
Chiefs minus-3.5 at Raiders: This looks like the most solid line of the week at minus-3.5. Some books have heavier juice on those taking the Raiders plus-3.5, but they'll probably be reluctant to move to 3, and if they do it won't last long.
Packers at Cowboys OFF: As stated in the "Off-the-Board Report" above, this is the only game the LVH kept off the board due to Rodgers' uncertain status. Most other books wouldn't have posted anything anyway with the Cowboys playing Monday night.
Bengals minus-3 (even money) at Steelers: This was only Bengals minus-1 last week, but it reopened at 3 (with added juice on the Steelers plus-3) after Cincinnati's convincing win over the Colts and the Steelers' loss to the Dolphins. Some offshores went with 2.5, so it should hover between 2.5 and 3 until the market picks a side.
Ravens at Lions minus-6 (Monday): The advance line was Lions minus-4 but went up Sunday afternoon at Lions minus-6. CRIS went with 5.5 and got bet up to 6, so it's looking like a pretty solid number.
So there's the opening look at the Week 15 lines. Join us Thursday (moved up from its previous Friday spot) for our "Tuley's Take" column as we look at how the public and wiseguys view this weekend's action and I give my "take" on each game after the lines have settled.
