[h=1]Updated NFL Vegas Rankings[/h][h=3]Vegas handicappers' power ratings for all 32 NFL teams after 14 weeks[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- And down the stretch they come ... the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are neck and neck ... fill in your own horse racing cliché here.
The Broncos and Seahawks are both 11-2 and have the inside track on home-field advantage in their respective conferences. They're the 2-1 co-favorites to win the Super Bowl in the future book at the LVH SuperBook here in Vegas. I was hoping that we'd be able to separate them in this update of the NFL Vegas Bettors' Poll, but our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- all have them tied as well.
These numbers are meant to be a current snapshot of the relative strength of all the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, and they can be used to compare to the lines being offered on upcoming games (with adjustments made for home-field advantage). So that would mean that we project a potential Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl as a pick 'em affair.
You can check the chart below to see how a team's stock has risen or fallen during the course of the season. Our first in-season ratings were Sept. 24 (after Week 3) and then on Nov. 5 (after Week 9). The Broncos have been our No. 1 team throughout, though the Seahawks have now closed the gap even after losing 19-17 at San Francisco on Sunday.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (2013 season)[/h]
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Other more significant changes near the top of the rankings: The Saints, Panthers, Eagles and Cardinals have had their power ratings rise as they make their push for the playoffs, while the Patriots have dipped by 1.5 points after nearly losing to the Browns at home this past Sunday (and losing tight end Rob Gronkowski, too). The Colts, Chargers, Titans and, of course, Packers (who lost Aaron Rodgers the night before our previous poll came out) have seen their stock drop.
Farther down in the rankings, the Jaguars are still our lowest-rated team, but they've seen a significant improvement (five full points in our power ratings) in recent weeks, as have the Buccaneers, who were our second-worst team after nine weeks but are now in the top 20. The Texans and Redskins have continued to plummet.
[h=3]Value plays for Week 15[/h]
Here's a look at a few games this week that appear to have value compared to our composite rankings (Note: These are not my personal picks, as I'll be back Thursday with the "Tuley's Take" column for those). Keep in mind that most of our lines are close to the spreads that are available out there, so these are games with small edges around the key numbers of 3 and 7:
Seahawks minus-7 at Giants: Our raw ratings have the Seahawks currently 10.5 points better than the Giants, so even if you give the Giants a full 3 points for home-field advantage (which, the consensus home-field in the NFL these days is more like 2.5 and the Giants are a mediocre 3-3 ATS at home this season), it's still over a touchdown.
ATS pick: Seahawks
Bengals minus-3 at Steelers: Our ratings have the Bengals 6 points better than the Steelers and again the home-field advantage takes it down to about 3.5. I guess you can argue that Pittsburgh's HFA is closer to 3 points even though they lost outright to the Dolphins on Sunday. However, it looks like there are some minus-2.5s out there, which might be worth the added juice.
ATS pick: Bengals
Titans plus-3 versus Cardinals: Even with the Cards rising and the Titans dropping, the Cards are just 4 points higher in our raw ratings, so the Tennessee home-field advantage takes it under a field goal.
ATS pick: Titans
Obviously adjust for any disagreements you have with these ratings. Good luck this week (and every week).
LAS VEGAS -- And down the stretch they come ... the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are neck and neck ... fill in your own horse racing cliché here.
The Broncos and Seahawks are both 11-2 and have the inside track on home-field advantage in their respective conferences. They're the 2-1 co-favorites to win the Super Bowl in the future book at the LVH SuperBook here in Vegas. I was hoping that we'd be able to separate them in this update of the NFL Vegas Bettors' Poll, but our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- all have them tied as well.
These numbers are meant to be a current snapshot of the relative strength of all the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, and they can be used to compare to the lines being offered on upcoming games (with adjustments made for home-field advantage). So that would mean that we project a potential Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl as a pick 'em affair.
You can check the chart below to see how a team's stock has risen or fallen during the course of the season. Our first in-season ratings were Sept. 24 (after Week 3) and then on Nov. 5 (after Week 9). The Broncos have been our No. 1 team throughout, though the Seahawks have now closed the gap even after losing 19-17 at San Francisco on Sunday.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (2013 season)[/h]
| Rank | Team | Sept. 24 | Nov. 5 | Dec. 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| *-With Aaron Rodgers out | ||||
| T-1 | Denver Broncos | 27 | 26 | 26 |
| T-1 | Seattle Seahawks | 26.5 | 25 | 26 |
| T-3 | San Francisco 49ers | 2.5 | 25 | 24 |
| T-3 | New Orleans Saints | 23 | 23 | 24 |
| T-5 | New England Patriots | 24 | 24 | 22.5 |
| T-5 | Carolina Panthers | 20 | 21 | 22.5 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 20 | 18 | 20.5 |
| T-9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 20.5 | 21.5 | 20 |
| T-9 | Detroit Lions | 20.5 | 20 | 20 |
| T-9 | Arizona Cardinals | 17 | 17 | 20 |
| T-12 | Chicago Bears | 22.5 | 19.5 | 18.5 |
| T-12 | Dallas Cowboys | 23 | 21 | 18.5 |
| T-14 | Indianapolis Colts | 20.5 | 21 | 18 |
| T-14 | San Diego Chargers | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| T-16 | Baltimore Ravens | 21.5 | 17 | 17.5 |
| T-16 | Miami Dolphins | 21 | 17 | 17.5 |
| T-18 | Tennessee Titans | 19 | 18.5 | 16 |
| T-18 | Green Bay Packers | 23 | 18* | 16* |
| T-18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16 |
| T-18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | 11.5 | 16 |
| T-22 | New York Giants | 18.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 |
| T-22 | St. Louis Rams | 16.5 | 13.5 | 15.5 |
| T-24 | Atlanta Falcons | 21 | 16 | 15 |
| T-25 | Cleveland Browns | 15.5 | 17 | 15 |
| T-26 | New York Jets | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| T-27 | Buffalo Bills | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| T-28 | Oakland Raiders | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | 16.5 | 13 | 13.5 |
| T-30 | Houston Texans | 23 | 17.5 | 13 |
| T-30 | Washington Redskins | 18.5 | 17 | 13 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 | 7 | 12 |
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Other more significant changes near the top of the rankings: The Saints, Panthers, Eagles and Cardinals have had their power ratings rise as they make their push for the playoffs, while the Patriots have dipped by 1.5 points after nearly losing to the Browns at home this past Sunday (and losing tight end Rob Gronkowski, too). The Colts, Chargers, Titans and, of course, Packers (who lost Aaron Rodgers the night before our previous poll came out) have seen their stock drop.
Farther down in the rankings, the Jaguars are still our lowest-rated team, but they've seen a significant improvement (five full points in our power ratings) in recent weeks, as have the Buccaneers, who were our second-worst team after nine weeks but are now in the top 20. The Texans and Redskins have continued to plummet.
[h=3]Value plays for Week 15[/h]
Here's a look at a few games this week that appear to have value compared to our composite rankings (Note: These are not my personal picks, as I'll be back Thursday with the "Tuley's Take" column for those). Keep in mind that most of our lines are close to the spreads that are available out there, so these are games with small edges around the key numbers of 3 and 7:
Seahawks minus-7 at Giants: Our raw ratings have the Seahawks currently 10.5 points better than the Giants, so even if you give the Giants a full 3 points for home-field advantage (which, the consensus home-field in the NFL these days is more like 2.5 and the Giants are a mediocre 3-3 ATS at home this season), it's still over a touchdown.
ATS pick: Seahawks
Bengals minus-3 at Steelers: Our ratings have the Bengals 6 points better than the Steelers and again the home-field advantage takes it down to about 3.5. I guess you can argue that Pittsburgh's HFA is closer to 3 points even though they lost outright to the Dolphins on Sunday. However, it looks like there are some minus-2.5s out there, which might be worth the added juice.
ATS pick: Bengals
Titans plus-3 versus Cardinals: Even with the Cards rising and the Titans dropping, the Cards are just 4 points higher in our raw ratings, so the Tennessee home-field advantage takes it under a field goal.
ATS pick: Titans
Obviously adjust for any disagreements you have with these ratings. Good luck this week (and every week).
