Service Plays Thursday 12/12/13

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GL!

Thursday Night Football betting: Chargers at Broncos

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 56)

The Denver Broncos can wrap up a perfect home record - and move a step closer to ensuring they stay there throughout the playoffs - with a win over the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. Denver has clinched a playoff spot and has a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West and over New England for the AFC's top seed. "I guess you have some security but our job is not finished," receiver Eric Decker told the team's website. "Winning this division is No. 1, and winning this conference is No. 2."

While the Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, their margin of error for home-field advantage is ultra thin by virtue of losing to the Patriots in overtime last month. The Chargers are backed much farther into the corner, sitting one game behind Miami and Baltimore in the race for the last playoff spot. To a man, the Chargers called their 37-14 drubbing of the New York Giants on Sunday their most complete game of the season, and they'll likely need to duplicate it to upset the Broncos in Denver.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 10.5-point home faves. The total opened at 55 and is up to 56.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (6-7): San Diego has a glimmer of hope after winning two of his last three but its remaining schedule includes not only the trip to Denver but also a visit from the Chiefs in the season finale. Quarterback Philip Rivers has enjoyed a resurgent season, completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with 26 TDs and nine interceptions. The defense has given up more than 400 total yards four times and surrendered 397 in a 28-20 home loss to Denver in Week 10, but the Chargers have forced 12 turnovers in their past eight games after just two takeaways in their first five contests.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (11-2): Denver is 7-0 at home, where it has won by an average of 20.4 points after last week's 51-28 triumph over Tennessee. Quarterback Peyton Manning put to rest any concerns about his ability to perform in cold weather, going 39-of-59 for 397 yards and four touchdowns against the Titans with the temperature well below freezing. Manning has a bevy of weapons at his disposal, as the Broncos are the first team in NFL history to have four players with 10 or more touchdowns - Knowshon Moreno (12), Julius Thomas (11), Demaryius Thomas (11) and Wes Welker (10).

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in their last nine meetings in Denver.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Chargers last eight vs. AFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning has recorded 11 games with 300 or more passing yards this season, tying Tom Brady for the second-most in NFL history.

2. Chargers WR Keenan Allen has 61 receptions - a franchise record for a rookie - for 902 yards and five TDs.

3. The Broncos need to score 75 points in their last three games to break the NFL record of 589 set by the 2007 Patriots. They average 39.6.

Tale of the Tape: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos continue their march toward home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs as they host the San Diego Chargers in the Week 15 Thursday nighter.

Manning and the Broncos also have history in their sights, as they come into the week needing just 75 points to set the single-season scoring record set by the 2007 New England Patriots. The Chargers remain in the playoff hunt, but will need to upend a Denver team that is 7-0 SU at home.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Broncos remain historically dominant on the offensive end, and are coming off a 51-point explosion against a Tennessee pass defense that came into the game as one of the stingiest in the league. Denver averages more than 340 passing yards per contest - easily tops in the league - with Manning racking up 45 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. He has been sacked a league-low 15 times for just 96 yards. The Broncos have also been above-average in the running game, ranked 12th in total yards (1,617) and tied for second in touchdowns (16).

While not on par with the Denver juggernaut, the Chargers have a sensational pass attack in their own right. Led by rejuvenated quarterback Philip Rivers, San Diego boasts the fourth-most passing yards entering Week 15 (3,753) with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The offensive line has done an effective job protecting Rivers for most of the season, yielding 24 sacks. The running game has been the team's offensive weak spot to date, compiling just 1,454 yards - good for 20th in the league - with only seven scores.

Edge: Denver

Defense

Not even Manning's exploits have been able to mask a Denver pass defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL. The Broncos have been torched for 3,566 yards - the fourth-highest total in football - while surrendering 24 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Denver is in the middle of the pack when it comes to pressuring opposing quarterbacks, registering 34 sacks for 245 yards. The Broncos' run defense has limited the opposition to 1,298 yards - seventh-fewest in the league - but has given up 14 touchdowns. Only five teams have surrendered more.

The Chargers are a suitable match for the Broncos in the pass defense department, allowing the fifth-most yards through 14 weeks - just 99 fewer than division-rival Denver. San Diego has held foes to 20 touchdown passes with nine interceptions, and has racked up 31 sacks totaling 225 yards. The Chargers have been gouged for a league-worst 4.8 yards per carry against, ranking 19th in opposing rushing yards (1,505) and allowing 11 scores on the ground. On the plus side, San Diego held the New York Giants to 92 rushing yards in last week's 37-14 win.

Edge: Even

Special Teams

The Broncos remain one of just a handful of NFL teams with both a kickoff-return and punt-return touchdown. The Broncos average 25.6 yards per kick return - eighth-most in the NFL - but have dipped to 19th in the league in punt-return average (8.5). Denver surrenders the highest kick-return average in football at 29.8 yards, but has limited foes to a reasonable 9.6 yards on 20 punt returns. Matt Prater has been one of the best kickers in the league this season - missing just one field goal - and is coming off an NFL-record 64-yarder in last week's one-sided win over the Titans.

The Chargers' return game has been underwhelming for the most part, ranking 17th in kick-return average (23.2) and 24th in punt-return average (7.6) with a long attempt of 21 yards. San Diego has given up the most total kickoff yards in the league by a wide margin (1,424), but is allowing a less-objectionable 24.1 yards per attempt and hasn't allowed a return longer than 46 yards. Only six teams have allowed fewer yards per punt return than San Diego (7.0). Kicker Nick Novak is 26-for-29 on field-goal attempts, including a 3-for-3 showing against the Giants.

Edge: Denver

Notable Quotable

"Some of this is giving guys opportunities to see what they can do. We try to get better every day and every week as we move closer to the end of the season. Our agenda is to get better every day." - Denver head coach John Fox on the Broncos' defensive personnel turnover

"I'm a firm believer of 'go as long as you can.' I've got no problem with the running back (handling a high volume). We've always played with two (backs) where I've been, from Carolina to Denver to here. We've always told the hot hand to stay in." - Chargers head coach Mike McCoy on giving running back Ryan Mathews 29 carries versus the Giants

Trends - San Diego at Denver
Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.
ATS Trends
San Diego

Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Chargers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Denver

Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.
Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Broncos are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 15.

OU Trends
San Diego

Under is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 vs. AFC.
Over is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 vs. AFC West.
Under is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 41-19-4 in Chargers last 64 road games.

Denver

Over is 6-0-1 in Broncos last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-0-1 in Broncos last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 13-3 in Broncos last 16 games in Week 15.
Over is 12-3-1 in Broncos last 16 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 16-4-1 in Broncos last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 23-7-1 in Broncos last 31 home games.
Over is 19-6-1 in Broncos last 26 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 15-5-1 in Broncos last 21 games following a ATS win.
Over is 41-14-1 in Broncos last 56 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 23-8-2 in Broncos last 33 games in December.
Over is 20-7 in Broncos last 27 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 49-19-1 in Broncos last 69 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 Thursday games.
Over is 36-15-1 in Broncos last 52 vs. AFC.
Over is 37-18-1 in Broncos last 56 games on grass.

Head to Head

Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Denver.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Denver.
Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Thusday night prop bets: Chargers at Broncos

Are you looking for some extra Props to bet on for Thursday night's AFC West matchup between the Chargers and Broncos? We've got all you need to know right here.

Props courtesy of LVH Superbook.

FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE:

TOUCHDOWN -200
ANY OTHER SCORE +175

Peyton Manning threw a 74 yard TD to Julius Thomas less than six minutes into the game when these teams faced off in Week 10.

TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: PHILIP RIVERS:

OVER 292.5 -110
UNDER 292.5 -110

Philip Rivers has averaged 298.6 passing yards per game this season, but only 239 per game in his last three meetings with Denver.

TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES BY: PHILIP RIVERS:

OVER 1.5 -145
UNDER 1.5 +125

Rivers has thrown for only one TD the last time these teams met.

TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY: PEYTON MANNING:

OVER 28.5 -110
UNDER 28.5 -110

Since joining the Broncos, Manning is averaging 24.3 completions per game in the last three games vs. the Chargers

TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES BY: PEYTON MANNING:

OVER 3.5 +140
UNDER 3.5 -160

Manning threw four TDs versus the Chargers in Week 10.

TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY: ERIC DECKER:

OVER 90.5 -110
UNDER 90.5 -110

Eric Decker had three receptions on five targets for 52 yards and zero TDs in the Week 10 matchup vs. the Chargers.

WILL DEMARYIUS THOMAS (DEN) SCORE A TOUCHDOWN?

YES -135
NO +115

Demaryius Thomas has scored at least one TD in the last three meetings with the Chargers. He scored three in Week 10.

TOTAL QB SACKS BY BOTH TEAMS:

OVER 4.0 +115
UNDER 4.0 -135

There were six total sacks back when these team met in Week 10.

TOTAL POINTS BY CHARGERS:

OVER 23.5 -110
UNDER 23.5 -110

The Chargers have averaged 22.3 points in the last three games vs. the Broncos.

TOTAL POINTS BY BRONCOS:

OVER 33.5 -110
UNDER 33.5 -110

The Broncos average 39.6 points per game this season, but average 31 points per game in the last three games vs. the Chargers.

Rockets at Trail Blazers: What bettors need to know

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 211.5)

The Portland Trail Blazers and the Houston Rockets are following a similar formula to the top of the Western Conference with strong inside-outside combinations and rapid ball movement leading to 3-pointers. The Trail Blazers will attempt to prove they run it better when they host the Rockets on Thursday. Portland holds the top record in the West and is second in the NBA in scoring, behind only Houston.

The Rockets are winners of two straight thanks to an improved effort on the defensive end and the continued acclimation of Dwight Howard to Houston’s high screen-and-roll offense. That high screen system between James Harden and Howard should look familiar to the Trail Blazers, who run plenty of the same with Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Portland did not respond well to that scheme in the first meeting, a 116-101 home loss on Nov. 5.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (15-7): Houston is in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense but is making its way up by holding its last two opponents to an average of 85.5 points. “I think we have a better mindset and we are more comfortable and executing to the scouting report very well,” forward Chandler Parsons said of the last two games. “I think out problem is we haven’t fully grasped that we can lose to any team on any given night.” That should not be a problem against the Blazers if the first meeting was any indication. Harden led the way with 33 points in that one as Rockets shot 54.7 percent from the field.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (18-4): Portland had a four-game winning streak come to an end with a loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday but bounced right back with a win at Utah and is making a brief stop at home before heading out on a four-game road trip. Aldridge was named the Western Conference Player of the Week for last week after posting four straight double-doubles and even began to hear “MVP” chants in Utah on Monday. “It was a blessing and definitely something I feel I’ve worked hard for,” Aldridge told the team’s official website. “I’ve never heard MVP chants on the road, that was definitely new for me.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Rockets are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Portland.
* Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Houston has taken three straight in the series and has won five of its last six in Portland.

2. Rockets G Jeremy Lin (knee) is expected to make his return from a six-game absence on Thursday.

3. Howard has pulled down 18 or more rebounds in each of the last three games to boost his average to 13.3 boards.

Parlay kings: Are the Blazers the best parlay lock in the NBA
By CHASE RUTTIG

Boasting an impressive nucleus of young talent that is finally healthy for a change (don't tell Brandon Roy or Greg Oden), the Portland Trail Blazers are the best ATS team in the NBA through a quarter of the season at 22 games. With a 16-6 ATS record, the Blazers are also the best team in regards to the Over, hitting over the total 15 times this season.

This makes the Blazers the NBA's best team to add to your parlays this season, shocking considering the Blazers struggles in 2012-13.

Today we look at why the Blazers have been so good this season and if their value will stay true into the future.

Hot shooting

Naturally, if you are a team that is hitting the Over you are likely among the best in the Association in FG percentage, FT percentage, 3PT percentage and points per game. The Blazers are in the Top 10 of all of those categories, ranking second in PPG (106.2) ninth in FG percentage (45.8), second in 3PT percentage (41.5) and first in FT percentage (81.7).

The Blazers have efficient players in LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum who can all score when needed so it is no surprise that they are filling the baskets at will so far this season, but shooting that good will eventually cool down at some point if it is only a trend.

Not slowing down

Portland has still been going Over the past ten games, losing just three times against the spread and going under just twice. With the lines adjusting to the Blazers' hot start, it is promising that they have continued to keep winning wagers over their past ten games.

Portland has been equally as hot in terms of wins and losses, losing just twice SU over that ten game span.

If a cool down period is expected, it could be awhile based on their 10 game record.

Good hosts, better guests

Portland has done it both at home and on the road in terms of ATS wins, but they are even better when they are away from the venue Formerly Known as the Rose Garden.

Their 7-4 home record is topped by their 9-2 record on the road, they make up for it by playing the Over better at home with their friendly rims going 8-3 with the totals at home and 7-4 on the road. Once again that is quality value you won't find elsewhere in the NBA.

Will it last?

The next ten games will likely show how legit the Blazers are both in the Western Conference and at the sportsbook.

Their first quarter value has been outstanding, but at the same time the linesmakers will be taking this into consideration each time they handicap Portland. That goes the same for their Western Conference opponents, who will be doing their best to test the surprising 18-4 Blazers who now think they are contenders in the tough West pack.

Only time will tell, but for now you can't go wrong throwing the Blazers on your NBA parlays for the time being. ATS or with the Over, they have been money so far.

Alex Smart

NBA-
Clippers-2.5

CBB-
Maryland-2.5
Florida Atlantic+11

NFL-
San Diego/Denver over 55.5

Sixth Sense

Chargers +10

NHL

Hot teams
-- Blue Jackets won three of their last four games.
-- Canadiens won five of their last six games.
-- Bruins won seven of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost four of their last five games.
-- Flyers lost four of their last five games.
-- Buffalo lost eight of last ten games. Senators lost five of last seven.
-- Red Wings lost three of their last four games. Lightning lost four of last five.
-- Toronto lost seven of its last nine games. Blues lost three of their last five.
-- Nashville lost five of its last six games. Dallas Stars lost six of their last nine.
-- Jets lost seven of their last eleven games. Colorado lost three of its last four.
-- Flames lost three of their last four home games. Carolina lost its last two games, scoring four goals.
-- Islanders snapped 10-game skid in shootout Tuesday. Phoenix lost six of last nine.
-- Edmonton is 2-6 in game following its last eight wins.
-- San Jose lost its last four games, scoring seven goals. Minnesota lost six of its last nine.

Totals
-- Four of last five Columbus games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Philly games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-0-2 in last seven Buffalo games.
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five St Louis games.
-- Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Carolina games; last five Calgary games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Islander games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Boston games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Minnesota games; five of last seven Shark games went over.

Series records
-- Rangers won their last four games with Columbus.
-- Flyers won eight of last eleven games with Montreal.
-- Sabres lost three of last four visits to Ottawa.
-- Lightning lost six of last seven games with Detroit.
-- Blues lost four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Predators won four of last five games with Nashville.
-- Jets won five of last eight games with Colorado.
-- Flames won four of last six games with Carolina.
-- Islanders lost four of last six games with Phoenix.
-- Bruins won last three games with Edmonton, allowing five goals.
-- Sharks lost five of last seven games with Minnesota.

NBA

Hot teams
-- Clippers won three of their last four games. Brooklyn won its last two games, is 3-6 vs spread at home.
-- Portland won five of last six games; they're 7-4 vs spread at home. Rocketrs won seven of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- None

Totals
-- Last four Clipper games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over the total.

Series records
-- Clippers lost last five games at Nets, by 17-16-4-1-10 points.
-- Rockets won last three games vs Portland, scoring 118-116-116.

RTG Sports


Portland Trailblazers -3.5

Chicago Syndicate

NFL
Chargers +11.5 (played at 5 Dimes)

NBA
Clippers & Under

The Sports Nostradamus

CBB
Boston College

NFL
Over Broncos

LA Syndicate

NFL
Over Chargers

NBA
Trailblazers

WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

Los Angeles Clippers over *Brooklyn by 3
The Clippers are playing their sixth of seven consecutive road games and second in
two nights. Los Angeles is 3-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back games, but Doc
Rivers has yet to straighten out the defense.
LA CLIPPERS 105-102.

*Portland over Houston by 7
The surprisingly Trail Blazers have lost only twice at home. LaMarcus Aldridge is playing
at an MVP level and Portland has defensive stoppers Robin Lopez and Nicolas
Batum to cause problems for Houston's top-ranked offense.
PORTLAND 107-100.

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

**PREFERRED
Boston College* over Maryland by 8
We knock Boston College and their soft ways (31.4 rebounds per game vs. 40.4
rebounds per game for #3-ranked national rebounders Maryland), but the biggest
home-cooked conference meals tend to come in home openers, and BC does shoot a
lot of threes to help offset their main weakness. They beat Maryland here last season
despite one Maryland player nailing 7 three-pointers. Hello? They also have a huge
edge in free-throw percentage, about 80% to 60%, and they’re probably a better team
now that shot-clanging guard Lonnie Jackson is seeing less floor time (19 minutes per
game vs. 28 per game a year ago).
BOSTON COLLEGE, 78-70.

Depaul* over Florida Atlantic by 12
"I love man-to-man, but the NCAA has basically turned this into a zone game," said
FAU head coach Mike Jarvis recently, about the new foul-calling rules. "We adjusted."
Of course, he said that after a home win against bricklaying Central Florida. This is
up in class, and on the road, against Blue Demons shooting 39.5% from three-point
range. Shut down 6’5” Pablo Bertone and you shut down the visiting Owls. Of course,
Depaul head coach Oliver Purnell would have to first figure that out, which he sometimes
doesn’t until his post-game address.
DEPAUL, 84-72.

PREDICTION MACHINE

San Diego Chargers +10.5 @ Denver Broncos (Covers 54.4%), OVER 55.5 (Covers 55.5%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

The Vitals:
Projected Score: San Diego 25.5 - Denver 34.3
SU Pick and Win%: Denver wins 69.7%
Week 15 SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: San Diego Chargers +10.5 covers 54.4%
Week 15 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
ATS Wager for $50 player: $21
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (55.5) 55.5%
Week 15 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $33

Broncos look to keep rolling Thursday vs. Chargers
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -10.5, Total: 55.5

The Chargers try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a visit to the Broncos on Thursday night and facing a quarterback with the last name of Manning for the second straight week.

San Diego is coming off its largest win of the year, a 37-14 drubbing of Eli Manning's Giants, while Denver crushed the Titans 51-28, behind four touchdown passes from Peyton Manning, who now has 45 TD this year. Since joining the Broncos, Manning is 3-0 (2-1 ATS) versus the Chargers, throwing for 909 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT. This includes his 330 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in a 28-20 win in San Diego on Nov. 10. But Chargers QB Philip Rivers is also having a career year (26 TD, 9 INT), which has put his team in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race at 6-7, just one game behind Baltimore for the sixth playoff spot. Rivers' 244 passing YPG, 25 TD and 12 INT as a starter in this series with the Broncos is a big reason why his team is 9-6 SU (9-5-1 ATS) in the past 15 meetings. Denver is 13-3 ATS (81%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since Manning joined the team, but San Diego is 6-3 ATS (67%) in the final four weeks of the regular season since 2011. While the Chargers don't have any major injuries to cope with, the Broncos will likely be without WR Wes Welker (concussion), and have four others who are questionable in CB Champ Bailey (foot), OT Orlando Franklin (concussion), DE Derek Wolfe (illness) and WR/KR Trindon Holliday (shoulder).

The Chargers are a pedestrian 3-4 SU (3-3-1 ATS) on the road this year, but their offense has not been the issue with 24.6 PPG on 430 total YPG away from home. But the defense has allowed 24.4 PPG on 408 total YPG to host teams, while forcing just five turnovers in these seven contests. San Diego currently ranks fourth in the league in total offense (401 YPG) and passing offense (289 YPG), thanks to the second-highest time of possession (32:49). This has occurred because of a stellar third-down conversion rate of 48%, which ranks second in the NFL. But the Chargers are scoring only 24.3 PPG (T-11th in NFL) because of a poor red-zone offense (51% touchdown rate, 23rd in league). QB Philip Rivers has completed 70.3% of his passes this season for 3,882 yards (8.4 YPA), which includes a 72.3% completion rate and 8.8 YPA on the road. With the disruptive Broncos defense allowing just 55.8% completions to visiting quarterbacks this year, Rivers' accuracy will be key to his team sustaining drives and keeping Denver's offense on the sidelines. Rivers has plenty of weapons in the passing game with his top three targets all recording more than 60 receptions in WR Keenan Allen (902 rec. yards, 5 TD), TE Antonio Gates (776 rec. yards, 3 TD) and RB Danny Woodhead (534 rec. yards, 6 TD). San Diego's ground game hasn't been great this season (112 YPG, 20th in NFL; 3.9 YPC, 23rd in league), but it has picked up over the past five games with 125 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC. Top RB Ryan Mathews (885 rush yards, 5 TD) has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his past eight games, including 103 yards in last week's win. Mathews had 59 yards on 14 carries (4.2 YPC) and a touchdown in the Week 10 loss to Denver. Defensively, San Diego has been horrible in all aspects, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per passing attempt, both of which rank 31st in the 32-team league. This has led to 383 total YPG allowed (28th in NFL) despite being on the field for just 27:37 (2nd-fewest in league). The team has also been subpar in both the red zone (61%, 25th in NFL) and on third downs (40%, 22nd in league), but has allowed just 22.4 PPG (T-11th in NFL). Another positive sign is that San Diego has generated seven takeaways over the past three games, and will need to win the turnover battle like in Week 10 to hang in with the best team in the AFC.

Denver's offense has been unbelievable this year, leading the NFL in points (39.6 PPG), yards (466 YPG), first downs (27.9 per game), third-down conversions (48%) and red-zone efficiency (79% touchdown rate). QB Peyton Manning has thrown at least two touchdowns in all but one game this year, piling up 800 yards and 9 TD passes in his past two contests. Although WR Wes Welker (778 rec. yards, 10 TD) is doubtful to play on Thursday, Manning still has plenty of options when he drops back. WR Demaryius Thomas (1,149 rec. yards, 11 TD) was the main man against the Chargers on Nov. 10 with 108 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while TE Julius Thomas (625 rec. yards, 11 TD) caught just three passes in the Week 10 meeting, but one of those was a 74-yard touchdown reception. WR Eric Decker (1,088 rec. yards, 8 TD) has been especially good over the past two games with a whopping 16 catches for 291 yards and 5 TD. But the Broncos are not just a one-dimensional passing offense, as their ground game averages 124 YPG (12th in NFL) including 566 rushing yards (189 YPG) over the past three games. Top RB Knowshon Moreno (920 rush yards, 12 total TD) rushed for 65 yards (4.3 YPC) and gained another 49 yards through the air on eight receptions in the Week 10 win over San Diego. The offense has needed to carry this team, as Denver's defense has been subpar, ranking 25th in the league in both scoring defense (26.5 PPG) and total defense (374 YPG). The unit has been decent on third downs (37%, 14th in NFL), but has been porous in the red zone (62% touchdown rate, T-27th in league). Denver tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks last year, but has just 34 sacks this season (15th in NFL). Although the unit failed to force a turnover versus San Diego in Week 10, it has generated seven takeaways in the four games since.

Today's NFL Picks

San Diego at Denver

The Broncos host a San Diego team Thursday night that is coming off a 37-14 win over the NY Giants and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Denver is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10). Here are all of this week's picks.