Service Plays Saturday 12/14/13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Army vs. Navy

The Black Knights face a Navy team that is coming off a 58-52 OT win over San Jose State and is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Navy is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 21 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2).

Fezzik

Under Army/Navy

POINTWISE

COLLEGIATE
BASKETBALL PROPHECY

(12:00) Virginia Commonwealth 73 - NO IOWA 72 (ESPNU)

(12:00) PITTSBURGH 74 - Youngstown State 66

(12:00) ARIZONA 80 - MICHIGAN 77 (CBS)

(12:00) LOUISVILLE 109 - Western Kentucky 79 (ESPN2)

(2:00) VALPARAISO 67 - Loyola-Marymount 60

(2:00) DAYTON 81 - Central Michigan 68

(2:00) PENN STATE 76 - Princeton 61 (BIG10)

(2:00) GEORGIA STATE 73 - Old Dominion 53

(2:00) MARYLAND 80 - Florida Atlantic 64

(2:00) WICHITA STATE 75 - Tennessee 59 (Intrust Arena)

(2:00) OKLAHOMA STATE 79 - La Tech 62 (Okla City)

(3:00) MASSACHUSETTS 71 - Northern Illinois 51

(3:15) Indiana 64 - Notre Dame 63 (Indianapolis - ESPN)

(4:00) NEBRASKA 76 - Arkansas State 60 (BIG10)

(4:00) Michigan State 85 - Oakland 72 (Aub Hills - ESPN2)

(4:00) AIR FORCE 64 - Cal-Riverside 55

(5:00) MISSISSIPPI 67 - Middle Tennessee State 56

(5:00) OKLAHOMA 83 - Tulsa 74 (BIG10)

(5:15) NORTH CAROLINA 89 - Kentucky 81 (ESPN)

(6:00) CALIFORNIA 77 - Fresno State 63

(6:00) BOISE STATE 80 - Saint Marys 79

(6:00) BUTLER 72 - Purdue 66 (BIG10)

(6:00) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 84 - Detroit 70

(7:00) KANSAS 91 - New Mexico 71 (Kans City - ESPN2)

(7:30) West Virginia 74 - Marshall 62 (Charleston, WV)

(8:00) Houston 68 - LA-LAFAYETTE 64

(8:00) Xavier 63 - Cincinnati 57 (FOX1 - US Bank Arena)

(8:00) LSU 79 - La-Monroe 59

(8:00) TEXAS 77 - Texas State 63

(8:00) STANFORD 90 - Cal-Davis 66

(9:00) OREGON 82 - Illinois 71 (ESPN2 - Portland)

(10:00) GONZAGA 85 - South Florida 74 (Seattle)

(10:00) UTAH 64 - Byu 59

ADDED GAMES

(12:00) SETON HALL 76 - St Peters 68
(1:00) WISCONSIN 80 - Eastern Kentucky 57
(2:00) IONA 73 - St Bonaventure 66
(3:00) MARQUETTE 78 - Iupui 65
(4:00) RUTGERS 81 - UNC-Greensboro 69
(4:00) Jacksonville State 64 - DARTMOUTH 60
(4:00) WASHINGTON 75 - Idaho State 67
(6:00) NEVADA 83 - Nebraska-Omaha 71
(7:00) CLEMSON 72 - Furman 59
(7:00) Unlv 78 - SOUTHERN UTAH 74
(8:00) SAINT LOUIS 80 - Wofford 58
(8:00) SE MISSOURI STATE 73 - Illinois-Chicago 62
(8:00) Wisc-Green Bay 69 - SOUTH DAKOTA 66
(8:15) OHIO STATE 91 - North Dakota State 60

BEST BETS:
PENN STATE
GEORGIA STATE
WICHITA STATE
BUTLER
WEST VIRGINIA
HOUSTON
OREGON

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

VCU over Northern Iowa* by 4
The home side’s guard Wes Washpun sees 30 minutes per game shooting only 28%
from the field and rarely attempting a 3-pointer. You’d have to think that VCU will
seize upon the 5-on-4 defensive possibilities this could create.
VCU, 69-65.

**PREFERRED
Pittsburgh* over Youngstown State by 9
(Road underdog Youngstown, +) An 8-day layoff, and a look-ahead to Cincinnati, are
among the obstacles for heavy home favorite Pittsburgh, who recently shaved a few
points off the end-game vs. Loyola Marymount. Also, the “stranger” factor with a team
that Pitt hasn’t faced recently, plus the fact that Youngstown State can kinda play, with
four double-digit scorers, an 83 ppg average, and decent size, talent and experience
among the starting group. Head coach Slocum is talking up the team’s “circle the wagons”
mentality on the road.
PITTSBURGH, 70-61.

Michigan* over Arizona by 1
Neither side seems like it could pound the pointspread vs. the other, but you’d have to
wonder about Arizona guard T.J. McConnell’s ability to run their offense if Michigan
pulls out the ol’ 1-3-1 trap to help stop effective dribble-penetration.
MICHIGAN, 68-67.

Louisville* over Western Kentucky by 25
The closest WKU has gotten to Louisville in the last four years was 10 points. The
other losses were by 20+ and 30+.
LOUISVILLE, 84-59.

***BEST BET
Valparaiso* over Loyola Marymount by 27
Anger play! Something smelled about Loyola Marymount’s cheeseball cover at Pitt
about 10 days ago, a game in which LMU never threatened to be close. We’ll feel the
hurt, forgive, but not forget. Valpo’s coaching staff doesn’t have anyone on it who was
once a coaching staff mate in Las Vegas with someone on Pitt, so perhaps they won’t
be as kind in the latter stages. The host Crusaders are scorinng 2 more ppg than Pitt
was, and Pitt got 85, eased up.
VALPARAISO, 89-62.

Dayton* over Central Michigan by 20
CMU is doing a nice job with ball security. Only 9 turnovers per game. But their
schedule has been very weak, especially compared with Dayton’s.
DAYTON, 81-61.

Penn State* over Princeton by 6
Fifth-year senior guard Tim Frazier of Penn State should have no problem breaking
down the Tigers’ D.
PENN STATE, 68-62.

Georgia State* over Old Dominion by 10
Former conference mates meet in what is a non-conference road game for ODU. Train
those hoses on the invader, Sun Belt host! That would heighten the degree of difficulty
for Old Dominion after they already lost by 15 and 20 to this group last season.
GEORGIA STATE, 68-58.

Maryland* over Florida Atlantic by 21
Both sides play a second game in three nights, but only Maryland is taking a class drop
and coming home. FAU is moving up a notch and staying on the road.
MARYLAND, 81-60.

Wichita State* over Tennessee by 7 (at Intrust Arena)
When they play against decent power-conference sides, you’d prefer Wichita to be the
underdog, like they were throughout their run to the Final Four last season.
WICHITA STATE, 68-61.

Oklahoma St. over Louisiana Tech by 16 (at Oklahoma City)

Massachusetts* over Northern Illinois by 28

Indiana over Notre Dame by 10 (at Indianapolis)
Notre Dame’s first Big Ten battle was a loss/cover at Iowa. They lost a home game to
Indiana State. Indiana? Blah. This 7-foot Vonleh kid is a walking turnover.
INDIANA, 74-64.

Nebraska* over Arkansas State by 6
Early on here, we have Nebraska getting only 8.5 assists per game on offense. Ugh.
Arkansas State, up in class, on the road, never something to wait for and pounce on,
but Nebraska had trouble putting Northern Illinois away on this floor and NIU is horrible.
ASU is not.
NEBRASKA, 67-61.

Michigan State over Oakland by 23 (Palace of Auburn Hills)
Oakland head coach Greg Kampe scheduled out of his mind this autumn: road games
already at North Carolina, UCLA, Cal, Gonzaga and Indiana, and now this. He
thinks he’s little Izzo. We’ll see how much it may help them when they get into their
first season of Horizon League action.
MICHIGAN STATE, 92-69.

Air Force* over Cal-Riverside by 8
Cal-Riverside has attempted, and made, among the fewest three-pointers in the nation
this season. That’s certainly an important shot. But with losses to VMI and Jackson
State, and impressive wins against nobody, Air Force is no bargain in this spot.
AIR FORCE, 74-66.

Mississippi* over Middle Tennessee St. by 9
Revenge game for Ole Miss, who lost 65-62 at Middle Tennessee last season.
MISSISSIPPI, 75-66.

Oklahoma* over Tulsa by 15
Tulsa’s leading scorer, 6’7” soph Rashad Smth, would have more than 13.6 ppg if he
could hit free throws – only 56.9%!
OKLAHOMA, 77-62.

***BEST BET
Kentucky over North Carolina* by 7
UK lost on a semi-neutral floor to Baylor, must play UNC in a true roadie, the first
true roadie for this latest freshman-laden crop? Everyone and his bro will be pro-Tar
Heel, right? But remember what we took the trouble to lay out for everyone in last
week’s issue, which was Calipari’s awareness of how teams would try to beat Kentucky?
Basically, ‘slow it down, play zone, shoot 3s.’ And remember we said that Baylor would
follow that blueprint beautifully? The Tar Heels may wear blue, that print ain’t the
Carolina way.
KENTUCKY, 76-69.

California* over Fresno State by 11
-For Cal, big man Richard Solomon is back from a brief injury absence. For Fresno
State, senior guard Tyler Johnson, who averages 14 ppg, has been out for four games
with an injury when the week began.
CALIFORNIA, 80-69.

St. Mary’s over Boise State* by 3
The host Broncos have been hard to beat in this building, but St. Mary’s is better than
most sides that take on the challenge. The Gaels are shooting better than 41% from
three-point range and are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation.
Both sides were unbeaten when the week began (but Boise State played at Kentucky
on Tuesday. How’d that go?)
ST. MARY’S, 78-75.

Butler over Purdue by 7 (at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse)

N.C. State* over Detroit by 10 (at Reynolds Coliseum)

New Mexico over Kansas by 6 (at Kansas City, MO)
Regular season shot of a lifetime for the Lobos. It’s not easy to play great defense
against a New Mexico team where three guys are averaging close to 20 ppg, especially
when those three players are three different types, and two of them can nail 3s, and
two of them also account for more than 17 rebounds between them. Compounding
the problem for the Jayhawks is that they are barely making 30% of their treys. You
can already hear Bill Self pulling excuse 1A in the post-game presser: ‘We’re a young
team…’
NEW MEXICO, 76-70.

West Virginia over Marshall by 4

Louisiana-Lafayette* over Houston by 11

Cincinnati* over Xavier by 6

LSU* over UL-Monroe by 21

Texas* over Texas State by 17

Stanford* over Cal-Davis by 27
Senior guard Aaron Bright is out for the season for Stanford. As if they care? He was
shooting 35% from the field and was 34% last year in more minutes. Good riddance!
STANFORD, 81-54.

*Oregon over Illinois by 11 (at Portland, OR)
Too much offense on Oregon; probably not enough offense on Illinois. They’re all
standing around waiting for Rayvonte Rice to make a shot.
OREGON, 76-65.

Gonzaga* over South Alabama by 25 (at Seattle, WA)
USA probably needs to stick closer to home. They’ve already lost road games Texas,
Middle Tennessee, and – ewwwwww, Rice!
GONZAGA, 85-60.

**PREFERRED
Utah* over BYU by 8
The BYU offensive numbers are pretty, but you gotta make defensive stops, you know?
Utah isn’t as run n’ gun as the UMass team that we liked last week vs. BYU, thank you
very much, but they get up and down the floor all right and they have a pretty stingy
defensive yield so far. Topping 100 at Stanford (oh, that Johnny Dawkins NIT powerhouse!)
was the worst thing that could have happened to anyone who was thinking
‘I’d like to bet on BYU right away, right now!’
UTAH, 88-80.

NC Power Sweep Newsletter selections:


College
2* under Army/Navy


NFL
4* Kansas City by 13 over OAKLAND
3* CAROLINA by 17 over New York Jets
2* Arizona by 7 over TENNESSEE


Power Rating Play - INDIANAPOLIS over Houston
Angle Plays (all 3 angles) - San Francisco, ATLANTA, CAROLINA, INDIANAPOLIS


Totals:
3* over Washington/ATLANTA
3* under New York Jets/CAROLINA
3* over Arizona/TENNESSEE
2* under Seattle/ NY GIANTS
2* under Kansas City/OAKLAND


Note: CAPITAL letters indicate home team

Army vs. Navy: What bettors need to know

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen (-13, 53)

Game will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia

One of the oldest rivalries in college football has been a one-sided affair of late - and the early line suggests more of the same is in order as the Army Black Knights visit the Navy Midshipmen in the 114th edition of the Army-Navy game. Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field is the site of the latest battle between the two storied military schools. Navy comes in having won the last 11 matchups, squeaking out a 17-13 decision last year to improve to 57-49-7 in the series.

While the story off the field has been Army's inability to solve the Midshipmen, the focus on the field will be on which team can establish a more robust ground game. The Midshipmen struggled on defense but boasts the second-best rush attack in the nation, averaging more than 323 yards per game. Navy is right behind them at 320 rushing yards per contest, and is led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds and his mind-boggling 26 rushing touchdowns.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS
LINE: Navy enters as a 13-point fave, with the over/under set at 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 90 percent chance of rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the width of the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT ARMY (3-8): The Midshipmen were set to challenge for their first .500 season since 2010, but dropped four straight games heading into its finale to fall to 8-27 over the past three years. As good as the rushing game has been - eight different players have recorded at least one score on the ground - the passing game averages just 80 yards per outing while generating just four touchdowns in 11 games. Running back Terry Baggett leads the team with 1,072 rushing yards, while quarterback Angel Santiago actually has more yards on the ground (553) than through the air (542).

ABOUT NAVY (7-4): Reynolds had his share of impressive games in 2013 - scoring three or more touchdowns five times heading into mid-November - but saved his best work for the Midshipmen's thrilling 58-52 triple-overtime victory over San Jose State. The Antioch, Tenn., native exploded for 240 yards and seven rushing scores, leaving him one TD shy of the single-season record for a quarterback shared by Ricky Dobbs and Collin Klein. Ten different Navy players scored a rushing touchdown, while the Midshipmen racked up 43 scores on the ground compared to eight through the air.

TRENDS:

* Black Knights are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a bye week.
* Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an SU win.
* Under is 10-1 in Army's last 11 neutral-site games.
* Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.

J. Clifton ncaaf

NAVY - 12 (A)
UNDER 52 (A)

NCAAF

Saturday, December 14

Navy won its last 11 games with Army (7-4 vs spread) which is always on a neutral field- they won their last three games overall, scoring 47.4 ppg and are going to a bowl to play Middle Tennessee; Middies are 2-2 as a favorite this year. Army lost its last four games, allowing 36.3 ppg; they're 2-5 as a dog in 2013, losing four of five road games, with only win over Louisiana Tech on a neutral field. Last seven games in this run-dominated series stayed under the total.

Does winter weather give value to Over in Army-Navy?

Philadelphia football fans are in for another wild winter game when Army takes on Navy at Lincoln Financial Field Saturday.

Almost a week after the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions scored a combined 54 points in the middle of a blizzard, the annual meeting between armed forces is expected to get hit with snow and ice.

The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for a 100 percent chance snow, changing to ice pellets later in the game. Temperatures will dip below freezing and winds will blow ENE at 8 mph.

Both the Black Knights and Midshipmen rely heavily on the spread option offense, ranking No. 2 and No. 3 in rushing yards per game, respectively. While the knee-jerk reaction to winter weather in football games is to take the Under, last Sunday’s NFL game in Philadelphia proved otherwise.

Defensive players have a tougher time reacting to offenses and the slippery conditions make blitzing and pass rushes nearly impossible. This is especially true when dealing with run-heavy offenses, as evidenced by Eagles RB LeSean McCoy’s massive 217-yard, two-touchdown performance in the snow against Detroit. That NFL Week 14 game also had two kick return touchdowns.

The 34-20 Eagles win played Over the 51-point total, which was bet down from an opener of 54.5 once the forecast for Sunday's game was clearer. There were four other games plagued with winter weather and they all played Over the total.

The total for Army-Navy opened as high as 55-points and has since dropped to 51.5. The last seven meetings between these rivals have played Under the number.

PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks

304 3:00 PM NAVY vs ARMY ♦ -13 ♦ 13.5 ♦ 50.6%

Over/Under Picks

304 3:00 PM ARMY vs. NAVY ♦ 54.5 ♦ 59.9 ♦ Over 57.0%

The 2013 college football regular season will conclude this Saturday when Army faces Navy in Philadelphia for its traditional rivalry game. Though many games have been close, including last season's 17-13 contest, Navy has dominated the series as of late. The Midshipmen have won eleven straight contests over the Army Knights. Expect something similar this weekend as the two teams square off in what could be a fun shootout in the snow that is ultimately won by about two touchdowns by the favored team.

Having faced the nation's 69th ranked schedule, Navy is 7-4 straight-up and 7-3 against-the-spread. The Midshipmen have qualified for a bowl and are already headed to the Armed Forces Bowl to take on Middle Tennessee State on December 30th. In our final regular season College Football Power Rankings, Navy ranks 63rd overall. Not only does the team run the ball more than 83% of the time, the Midshipmen rank among the top 25 nationally in running efficiency. Led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds' 1,124 rushing yards on 250 carries, Navy averaged 5.4 yards-per-carry this season. Reynolds also threw for 1,028 yards on 9.0 yards-per-pass, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. In the team's seven wins, Navy averaged 40.9 points-per-game and seven of the Navy's 11 games featured more than 54 points (a defense that ranks 88th against the pass and 79th against the run contributed to the shootouts).

Army is 3-8 straight-up and 4-6 against-the-spread despite playing just the 113th ranked schedule in FBS. The Black Knights rank 107th overall in our College Football Power Rankings. Like Navy, Army runs the ball a lot (82% of the time), is efficient running the ball (40th ranked running team on a per play basis in our calculations, 5.5 yards-per-carry) and is terrible at defense (#123 against the pass and #112 against the run nationally). The Black Knights averaged 30.6 points-per-game in seven contests that they played against below average FBS run defenses. Four of Army's 11 games featured more than 54 points, while two more featured exactly 54 points scored.

Weather may be a factor in this game, yet that could actually help the offenses, especially with their lean towards running the ball. As was illustrated in the NFL last week, it's not tough to put up points in the snow when running the ball or getting players open in space on special teams plays. The current forecast from our phenomenal weather prognosticator, Charlie Schlott, calls for temperatures right around freezing and some rain/sleet/snow mix. Snow will likely fall throughout the first half and one to two inches of accumulation during the game is possible. The wind should not be a factor (and would not really be anyway with two teams that don't throw the ball).

In the conditions, with two bad defensive teams and two efficient running teams, high scores are likely. According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Navy wins on average just 69.9% of the time and by an average score of 36.7-23.2. As 13 point favorites winning by just 13.5 points, Navy does not cover the spread at a high enough percentage to warrant a wager (52.4% accuracy is needed to be profitable when betting 110 to win 100) The OVER (54.5) is playable in this game and covers 57.0% of the time, enough to justify a $48 play from a normal $50 player.

The Factsman

CFB Video Pick
Navy-12.5

Saturday's NCAAB Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

With only one college football game on Saturday's schedule, the attention swings to NCAA hoops. Saturday's slate is packed with marquee matchups, including some big-name showdowns between Top 25 programs. Here's a look at all the Top 25 betting action Saturday:

Arizona Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines (-1)

Arizona didn’t miss a beat in its first game at No. 1 and the level of challenge gets raised a few notches when it visits No. 25 Michigan on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats hammered New Mexico State 74-48 on Wednesday, but they face a Michigan team that has won 20 straight games at home against non-conference opponents and had a week to prepare for them. The key battle could be inside between Arizona’s 6-9 freshman Aaron Gordon and 6-10 sophomore Mitch McGary of Michigan.

The Wolverines followed up a loss at Duke by beating Houston Baptist by 54 last Saturday, recording a season-high 26 assists. Michigan’s only two upperclassmen play up front and Arizona is young in the backcourt as well, except for leading scorer junior Nick Johnson. Michigan is averaging more than 80 points and the Wildcats have held six of 10 opponents under 60, beating San Diego State 69-60 in their only true road game.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
* Wolverines are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 6-0 in Wildcats' last six overall.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisville Cardinals (-22)

Coach Rick Pitino is waiting for that championship-level defense to appear at No. 4 Louisville, which hosts Western Kentucky on Saturday. The numbers look good - the Cardinals started the week leading the country in turnover margin, ranked fifth in steals and 11th in scoring defense at 60.3 points - but Pitino has gotten on his team more than once this year about playing sloppy defense. "We have got to just keep working on it. It will get better," Pitino said after a 113-74 win against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. "The guys we have can score, and we can teach them defense, and it will get better."

The Hilltoppers enter the 12th annual Billy Minardi Classic with decent defensive numbers too - holding teams to 62.4 points - but will be tested by a Louisville team averaging almost 87 points. Western Kentucky gets some help this week when transfers Chris Harrison-Docks (Butler) and Trency Jackson (Texas Tech) become eligible. "We'll have to figure out where we will use those guys and what situations they're going to help us the most, but no question about (it), they're going to help," coach Ray Harper said.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games.
* Over is 12-3 in Cardinals' last 15 overall.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Wisconsin Badgers (-16.5)

Ben Brust took his turn in the spotlight this week as No. 6 Wisconsin, which hosts Eastern Kentucky on Saturday, continued its hot start. In case anyone had forgotten about Brust in the Badgers' balanced attack, the senior hit his first six shots to get Wisconsin rolling Wednesday. "Ben is one of those guys that can get hot real quick and he can change the complexion of a whole game just because he's such a sharp shooter," sophomore Sam Dekker said after the win against Wisconsin-Milwaukee. "Ben is one of those guys that's not going to always pass the eye test for some people. But he's always one of those guys that's going to get it done day in and day out."

Before anyone misinterpreted his comments, Dekker said Brust works hard in practice and makes hustle plays in games that sometimes go unnoticed - but not by teammates. The Colonels have been opportunistic with turnovers while Wisconsin hasn't lost that many. Wisconsin started the week second in turnovers lost (8.9) while Eastern Kentucky - ranked second in steals at 11.1 - has scored 239 points of 182 turnovers in 10 games.

TRENDS:

* Colonels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Badgers' last siix overall.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-12.5)

Marcus Smart has carried Oklahoma State into the top 10 while pushing himself up draft boards. Smart will need to be at his best Saturday when the ninth-ranked Cowboys face upset-minded Louisiana Tech in the All-College Classic at Oklahoma City. Smart and Markel Brown form one of the most dynamic scoring backcourts in the country and swingman Le’Bryan Nash offers a third scoring option for an Oklahoma State club that is among the leaders in the nation with a 90.4 scoring average.

The Bulldogs are no slouches in the scoring department and put up an average of 86.2 points behind their own solid backcourt of Raheem Appleby, Kenneth “Speedy” Smith and Alex Hamilton. “We are excited about the opportunity to play a really good team,” Louisiana Tech coach Michael White said of the Cowboys. “I think everyone in this locker room feels like we have a chance if we play great, despite what they are ranked.” Oklahoma State has been off since topping South Carolina on Dec. 6, and is beginning a stretch of three games in eight days.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.
* Under is 18-7-1 in Cowboys' last 26 non-conference games.

Tennessee Volunteers at Wichita State Shockers (-7)

Wichita State looks to go 10-0 for the first time in school history when it hosts Tennessee on Saturday in the first of two straight games against Southeastern Conference opponents. The eighth-ranked Shockers, who visit Alabama on Tuesday, won their ninth straight out of the gate with a 71-58 triumph over Oral Roberts last Saturday. It marked the eighth time that Wichita State won by double digits and the seventh time it held an opponent under 70 points.

The Shockers have limited opponents to an average of 60.3 points, which was tied for 11th in the country entering the week. They may be challenged by a Volunteers' squad that has found its offensive rhythm, averaging 77 points during a three-game win streak that includes runaway victories against Xavier and Wake Forest. Jarnell Stokes recorded his fourth straight double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds in an 84-63 win over Tennessee Tech last Saturday.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
* Shockers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
* Under is 53-25-1 in Volunteers' last 79 road games.

Northern Illinois Huskies at UMass Minutemen (-24.5)

The wins continue to pile up for No. 20 Massachusetts, which hosts Northern Illinois on Saturday, but votes in the USA Today Coaches Poll have yet to follow. Of the 10 unbeaten teams in the top 25, the Minutemen have the lowest ranking, but coach Derek Kellogg isn't all that concerned about it. "I just like that we are in the top 25, that UMass is thought of as one of those teams," said Kellogg. "We're getting some great publicity for the school. I think it's great for UMass."

The Huskies will go for their first win over a ranked team since 1973 and just their third in 31 all-time tries. Nebraska, which is the only common opponent between the two teams, defeated the Huskies 63-58 and lost to the Minutemen 96-90, both at home. Mark Montgomery's team averages only 69 points - nearly 16 fewer than the Minutemen - but ranks 20th in the nation in rebounding at 41.9 per game, just ahead of Massachusette's 41.6.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 41-18 in Huskies' last 59 overall.

Michigan State Spartans at Oakland Golden Grizzlies (+17)

Fifth-ranked Michigan State has been forced to dwell on a 14-point home loss for 10 days but finally gets the chance to create a more positive memory when it faces in-state opponent Oakland on Saturday at the Palace of Auburn Hills. The Spartans gave up their top spot in the rankings after a 79-65 loss to North Carolina, a game that revealed a potential weakness in the post as they were outscored 44-28 in the paint. Oakland has lost 25 consecutive games against Big Ten opponents, including a 81-54 drubbing at Indiana on Tuesday.

While the Spartans had a long layoff, they didn't have much time to work on correcting their mistakes against the Tar Heels because of exams. They have two games to prepare for another tough non-conference test at Texas next Saturday. "I can guarantee you this, I sure as hell ain't worried about Texas," coach Tom Izzo told reporters after the North Carolina game. "I'm worried about Michigan State. We didn't do the things that championship-caliber teams need to do in big games, and that is so disappointing." Michigan State has won all 11 meetings between the in-state foes.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Golden Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans' last five overall.

Saturday's NCAAB Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action

With only one college football game on Saturday's schedule, the attention swings to NCAA hoops. Saturday's slate is backed with marquee matchups, including some big-name showdowns between Top 25 programs. Here's a look at all the Top 25 betting action Saturday evening:

Kentucky Wildcats at North Carolina Tar Heels (-3)

Kentucky’s young team fell in both of its previous chances against a more experienced, ranked opponent. The No. 10 Wildcats will get another chance when they visit No. 21 North Carolina on Saturday in a battle between two of the most storied programs in college basketball. The Tar Heels own a pair of losses, but have plenty of experience knocking off top-10 teams with triumphs over Louisville and then-No. 1 Michigan State already on the resume.

Kentucky’s fabulous freshmen are maturing at different speeds, with Julius Randle and James Young the most consistent through the early schedule. “The mental aspect of getting yourself ready every day,” Randle said about the college experience being more difficult. “It’s not high school or AAU where you can take days off. You have to be ready to compete every day.” North Carolina is surging behind sophomore guard Marcus Paige, who will be dueling with the Wildcats’ Harrison twins on the perimeter.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in North Carolina.
* Wildcats are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

New Mexico Lobos at Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5)

Two teams that haven’t played to preseason expectations will collide Saturday night when No. 13 Kansas meets New Mexico as part of the Kansas City Shootout at the Sprint Center. The Jayhawks fell six spots in the rankings after losing Saturday to unranked Colorado and figure to drop a couple more after falling Tuesday to No. 19 Florida. New Mexico opened the season ranked No. 20 but needed two overtimes to beat Alabama-Birmingham and lost to Massachusetts.

Most eyes will be on Kansas freshman Andrew Wiggins, a 6-9 guard who is coming off season highs of 26 points and 11 rebounds against Florida. He also made four 3-pointers and blocked two shots for the first time in his college career, even making all eight of his free throws. The Lobos have a guard, a forward and a center each averaging better than 18 points, giving them a variety of methods to sting opponents.

TRENDS:

* Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12.
* Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Jayhawks' last seven overall.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at UCLA Bruins (N/A)

Jordan Adams played in the shadow of Shabazz Muhammad for much of last season and now the UCLA guard is taking advantage of his opportunity to shine as UCLA’s No. 1 scoring option heading into its game Saturday evening against visiting Prairie View A&M. Adams is averaging 21.6 points while shooting 51.8 percent from the field, better than the 17.9 points and 44.3 percent shooting Muhammad notched before he was drafted 14th overall by the Utah Jazz last June and then promptly traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Adams has also been consistent, scoring at least 16 points in every game, including four games with 22.

The UCLA player that has NBA scouts especially interested is 6-9 sophomore swingman Kyle Anderson, who already has one triple-double this season and has brushed up against a couple others. Anderson entered the week as the only player in the nation averaging at least 10 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. His playmaking was stifled in Saturday’s loss at Missouri, however, finishing with 13 points, six rebounds and two assists.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Bruins' last four home games.

North Dakota State Bison at Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5)

No. 2 Ohio State might have more than it bargained for when red-hot North Dakota State pays a visit Saturday night as part of the Blackrock Gotham Classic. The Bison are riding a five-game winning streak and pulled off a big-time upset at Notre Dame on Wednesday behind 26 points from Marshall Bjorklund. Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told the Chicago Tribune that the Bison are “very good — an old, experienced team” and referred to Bjorklund as a “bear.”

The Buckeyes have relied on their traditional lock-down defense, entering the week ranked third in the NCAA in scoring defense (54.5 points allowed per game). After getting blown out by the Buckeyes 86-48 on Dec. 11, Bryant coach Tim O’Shea told the Columbus Dispatch, “There are a few teams in the country that will contend for the national championship legitimately, and clearly Ohio State is one of them. … They play national championship-caliber defense.”

TRENDS:

* Bison are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
* Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Buckeyes' last seven overall.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Oregon Ducks (-6.5)

Mike Moser’s college career has taken a long and winding road, but Oregon’s second-leading scorer will finally get a chance to play in his hometown of Portland on Saturday night when the No. 11 Ducks host Illinois. Moser appeared in just 15 games as a freshman at UCLA, transferred to Nevada-Las Vegas in search of more playing time and produced one solid season and another injury-filled year. Moser went searching for greener pastures again after graduating from UNLV last spring and found it at Oregon, where he’s averaging 15 points and 7.4 rebounds.

The Ducks are benefiting from the arrival of another transfer, junior guard Joseph Young, who averages a team-high 20.1 points on 53.9 percent shooting. The Illini, meanwhile, are also led by a junior guard in his first season with the program. Drake transfer Rayvonte Rice has filled in nicely after the departure of leading scorers Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, reaching double figures in scoring in every game this season while also contributing 5.7 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Illini are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Ducks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Over is 13-3 in Ducks' last 16 overall.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. South Alabama Jaguars (+15.5)

Gonzaga will try to exploit its mismatch known as 7-1 sophomore Przemek Karnowski for a second straight game when it meets undersized South Alabama on Saturday in the Battle In Seattle. The No. 17 Bulldogs are known more for their guard play led by Kevin Pangos, but they will be a much tougher out come NCAA Tournament time if Karnowski continues to develop and center Sam Dower remains effective. Gonzaga has won five straight since its only loss - 84-79 to Dayton in the Maui Invitational.

Karnowski was humble in his assessment of Gonzaga's 80-76 victory at West Virginia on Tuesday, when he scored a season-high 19 points and matched a career best with 13 rebounds while recording the second double-double of his career. ''The guys were finding me,'' Karnowski said. ''I had great passes, I just had to finish them.'' The Jaguars lost 96-93 at the buzzer in triple overtime at Rice on Dec. 7 to fall to 0-3 on the road and do not have a player in the regular rotation taller than 6-7.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.
* Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs' last six overall.

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Round 16 of the Barclays Premier League features a pair of marquee matchups, one of which is the Tottenham-Liverpool fixture Sunday. Sautrday, however, sees league leaders Arsenal heading to Manchester to take on the Citizens at the Etihad Stadium.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in some of Saturday's hottest fixtures.

Manchester City v Arsenal (-120, +290, +350)

Why bet Manchester City: City is THE best side at home this season, posting the only perfect record on home soil. The Citizens are so dominant at home, that they've outscored opponents 29-2 en route to securing all 21 points at the Etihad. Plus, if City can extend its home dominance, three points puts them within striking distance of first-place Arsenal in the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Stevan Jovetic, Matija Nastasic

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners are the best road club in the Premier League, notching 16 points from a possible 21. The North Londoners have been the best club in the league this season and a road win at City will go a long way in their quest for their first title since 2003-04.

Key players out/doubtful: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski, Bacary Sagna

2012-13 fixture result: Manchester City 1, Arsenal 1

Key betting note: City has played over the 2.5 goal total in six of its seven home matches this season.

Where the action is: "A price that will not last. Man City have lost twice at the Etihad Stadium in the last 55 games, and won 49. The ability for them to almost score at will at home, and the defending that is normally present, its hard to justify -120 about a team with so many stats on their side. Action is all over Man City and understandably, not that Arsenal don’t see support, but I would suggest waiting to back Arsenal until Saturday for those looking to. Sergio Aguero leads the markets for First Goalscorer and To Score Anytime at +350 and -110, with Alvaro Negredo at +500 and +130."


Newcastle United v Southampton (+150, +240, +200)

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies have become a contender for European spots in the Premier League table. Coming off a 1-0 win at Old Trafford against Man United, Newcastle will look to take down another top-half club Saturday. The club has won five of their last six games and three-straight at St. James' Park.

Key players out/doubtful: Mathieu Debuchy, Yohan Cabaye

Why bet Southampton: At one point not too long ago, the Saints were the talk of the league and Mauricio Pochettino was the "hot" manager in the league. That chatter has cooled off of late as the Saints have lost three of four, but are coming off a very good home draw against Man City. Pablo Osvaldo scored a stunner to even the score and the staunch defense took care of the rest. This is still a quality side which will be eager to build on the momentum from last week's solid performance.

Key players out/doubtful: Morgan Schneiderlin, Victor Wanyama, Nathaniel Clyne, Artur Boruc

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 4, Southampton 2

Key betting note: Newcastle has defeated Southampton in the past six meetings at St. James' Park (all competitions).

Where the action is: "Newcastle have been very much Jekyll and Hyde all season, and given how the Saints have been recently, it's hard to call on either side for real consistency in recent matches. The home price at +150 is another that will probably shorten, it’s the most popular play on the FT result, with both the Draw and Southampton seeing almost equal amounts. Given the nature of the Saints road tactics, the 2.5 Total Goals market sees the Under favored at -118, but the action is all on the over 2.5 at -105."


Cardiff v West Brom (+163, +240, +188)

Why bet Cardiff: The Bluebirds have gone loss, draw, loss, draw, loss in their last five matches and will desperately look for a full three points with the struggling Baggies in town. The team is healthy and should be able to field a strong XI in an attempt to distance themselves from the danger zone.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

Why bet West Brom: A three-game losing skid has West Brom in the midst of a mini-crisis. The Baggies were punching above their weight in the early part of the season but have fallen back to earth recently. This is a fixture with both clubs desperate for points, so it could cater to a more wide-open game with each going for goals.

Key players out/doubtful: George Thorne

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Cardiff has not managed a goal in five of its last seven matches.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace (-500, +650, +1600)

Why bet Chelsea: First, the Blues don't lose at Stamford Bridge under Jose Mourinho. Second, they are playing Crystal Palace. Third, the Blues will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last week's loss to Stoke.

Key players out/doubtful: Marco van Ginkel

Why bet Crystal Palace: The Eagles are a seemingly different side since Tony Pulis took over. They are riding back-to-back wins into Saturday's fixture and will do everything they can to crawl out of 19th place.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Patrick McCarthy, Glenn Murray

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Palace has lost six of its seven away games this season.


Everton v Fulham (-250, +400, +800)

Why bet Everton: The Toffees are rolling. Everton hasn't lost since Oct. 5 - its only loss on the season. They are coming off a draw against Arsenal at the Emirates and have proven game in, game out, that the club can hang with anybody in the League.

Key players out/doubtful: Leighton Baines, James McCarthy, Arouna Koné, Darron Gibson

Why bet Fulham: Fulham (finally) posted a win last time out, defeating Aston Villa 2-0 and will look to parlay some of that momentum into another solid performance under René Meulensteen. This isn't a side that reeks of relegation, so expect them to get out of the relegation zone in the very near future.

Key players out/doubtful: Hugo Rodallega, Brede Hangeland, Matthew Briggs

2012-13 fixture result: Everton 1, Fulham 0

Key betting note: Everton has defeated Fulham in the last 10 meetings at Goodison Park (all competitions).


West Ham v Sunderland (+105, +250, +300)

Why bet West Ham: There is nowhere to go but up for the Hammers, who were trounced 4-1 by Luis Suarez and Liverpool last time out. They've lost four of their last five and their usually-stingy defending has been exposed in recent matches. Ravel Morrison and Joe Cole are poised to get the start here, which should inject some life into an otherwise flat side moving forward.

Key players out/doubtful: Kevin Nolan, Stewart Downing, Andy Carroll, Mladen Petric, Winston Reid

Why bet Sunderland: The Black Cats still toil at the bottom of the table, but the improvement is obvious under Gus Poyet. They have lost two straight, but played well enough to potentially win either - especially last week's game against Tottenham.

Key players out/doubtful: Keiren Westwood, Carlos Cuéllar

2012-13 fixture result: West Ham 1, Sunderland 1

Key betting note: The Black Cats haven't netted a goal in their previous five matches away from home.


Hull City v Stoke (+130, +225, +260)

Why bet Hull City: The Tigers are actually one of the better home sides in the league and three points against Stoke - one of the worst away clubs - will be the imperative for Steve Bruce and his side.

Key players out/doubtful: Stephen Quinn, Sone Aluko, Joe Dudgeon

Why bet Stoke: The Potters have just four points from seven away matches this season, but are coming off an incredible 3-2 victory over Chelsea. Oussama Assaidi's sensational game-winning goal could fuel a turning point for the Potters, who would desperately love to climb back into the top half of the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Robert Huth, Jonathan Walters

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: The Potters have allowed at least three goals in their last three matches away from home.