Service Plays Sunday 12/15/13

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GL!

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h]

Prediction Machine
Indy -6 58.3
Cle -1 57.7
Phi -4.5 57.3

Oak o41 57.7

Sixth Sense

Chargers +10
Texans +6
Vikings +4.5

Pointspreadpros
Week 15 TOP Plays (12-7-1 last 8 weeks, 20-22-1 YTD)


CAROLINA -11
Baltimore +6

NC Power Sweep Newsletter selections:


College
2* under Army/Navy


NFL
4* Kansas City by 13 over OAKLAND
3* CAROLINA by 17 over New York Jets
2* Arizona by 7 over TENNESSEE


Power Rating Play - INDIANAPOLIS over Houston
Angle Plays (all 3 angles) - San Francisco, ATLANTA, CAROLINA, INDIANAPOLIS


Totals:
3* over Washington/ATLANTA
3* under New York Jets/CAROLINA
3* over Arizona/TENNESSEE
2* under Seattle/ NY GIANTS
2* under Kansas City/OAKLAND


Note: CAPITAL letters indicate home team

Alex Smart

San Fran-5
Houston/Indy over 45.5
Jacksonville+2
Kansas City-3.5
Arizona/Tennessee over 41.5
Cinci/Pittsburgh over 40.5

Phil Steele Inside the Pressbox NFL Best Bets [Note: nowhere as good as CFB they are 4-5-1 YTD]

Arizona
New England
Eagles
Carolina
Kansas City

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Arizona at Tennessee (Sunday 12/15 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 41.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

The Arizona Cardinals are a surprising 8-5, and although Carson Palmer takes some heat for a too many errant throws, he has added a bundle to the offense on this team. Last season, the Cardinals produced 20 points or more in a game just one time in their last 12 contests. This season they have done so 11 times through 13 games, including each of the last nine. Ryan Fitzpatrick has started the last five games for the Titans, and has produced 23 points or more in four of them, so I think the low total here is in considerable jeopardy. Both of these teams appear to be destined for 20 points or more, and Arizona is an amazing 66-29-1 in their last 86 after gaining over 350 yards in their previous game. The Titans are 7-0 to the OVER after allowing 350 or more in their previous game. Make the play on the OVER.

Goodfella

3* Miami Dolphins

Betting Line Moves

J'ville Over 43

Wayne root has 3 goy today 1 is his grand daddy of them all his nfl goy.

Jimmy Boyd:

5* Bills -1
4* Colts -5.5
3* Eagles -4.5
3* Panthers -11
3* Bengals -3
3* Lions -6

Northcoast

Early Bird - Indianapolis Colts -5½

Power Play - Atlanta Falcons -6

NFL Totals Pow- Jets / Panthers Under 40½

Economy Club - New Orleans Saints -6

NFL Opening Line Report Oddsmakers Padding Postseason Pushes
by Jason Logan

This point of the NFL season can be especially tricky for books and bettors, with teams in pursuit of the playoffs either bursting with added motivation or crumbling under the postseason pressure.

There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.

“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”

There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+2)

The Patriots will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the season after he shredded his knee in Sunday’s thrilling win over Cleveland. According to Korner, Gronkowski is worth as much as two points to New England’s spreads.

“He’s a big hit to take and we’ve seen that already this year, with how poorly the Patriots played without him,” Korner says of Gronkowski. “He’s a point in a half, maybe even a two full point bump right off the bat. We’ve seen this offense struggle without him.”

Korner’s oddsmakers brought spread of New England -2 and -3 to the table, so they sent out the Patriots as 2.5-point road favorites in Miami.

“This is going to be a big dog play with the public,” he says. “Miami does need this game and could win straight up. Bettors are looking at how New England stalled versus Cleveland and needed a lucky hometown call to win the game. I just think dog players are going to be all over this one.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (N/A)

The Packers continue to play the waiting game on star QB Aaron Rodgers. Korner says they sent out Dallas -2.5 with Rodgers in the lineup and would suggest Dallas -8.5 or -9 if he is ruled out again while recovering from his broken collarbone.

“He’s a full six or seven points,” Korner says of Rodgers impact on this spread. “Green Bay is trying to stay in the mix and they want to play him if they can. He wants to play if he can. The line somewhat depends on how Dallas does (Monday). But with that game in the cold on the road, it may not matter much overall.”

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6)

Both the Ravens and Lions played in crazy snow games this past Sunday, but will nice and warm inside Ford Field on Monday Night Football.

Korner is expecting a heated primetime clash between two teams in the playoff hunt and sent out Detroit as a 3.5-point home favorite while offshores posted a bigger number at Lions -6.

“This is a must-win for both teams, so we sent it out pretty much at the pick’em when you factor the home field,” he says. “With weather not being a factor and them playing on a fast track indoors, we’ll see the true colors of both teams."

NFL Line Watch Colts backers should act fast

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6)

If you like the Colts to bounce back from their 42-28 drubbing in Cincinnati last week and hand the Texans a 12th straight loss, I'd recommend jumping on this line as soon as possible. As of Monday afternoon, there is still a -6 available but 6.5's have already started to become the predominate number, with even a 7 on the board as well.

Indianapolis beat Houston 27-24 back in Week 9, a contest in which it was trailing 21-3 heading into the break. Interestingly, that was the game that ex-Texans head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at half time with the heart issues (Kubiak of course was sacked after last week's 27-20 setback at Jacksonville).

The end of the season can't come quick enough now for Houston which has clearly thrown in the towel, with games at home versus Denver next week and at Tennessee to finish the year.

Spread to wait on

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

As mentioned above, Cincinnati had little trouble with Indianapolis last week, thrashing it 42-28. Pittsburgh though would stumble last Sunday, losing 34-28 to Miami in the closing moments, which was on the heels of a hard-fought 22-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 13.

This line opened at +2.5, but sharps have been quick to jump on the high-flying visitors, with +3 pretty much the predominating number now. If you think the home side can stop its two game slide and avenge a 20-10 setback at Cincinnati in Week 2, then I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting involved.

And if you're a Bengals backer, just keep in mind that playing on the road has been their Achilles' heel for bettors for the last few seasons, coming into this contest at just 2-5-1 ATS their last eight away from friendly confines.

Total to watch

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get on this number right now. It opened at 46, which is still being offered at some books, but 45.5 has for the most part been taken over the board.

Whenever these divisional foes get together it has been a battle, as evidenced by the fact that the total has finished Under the number in five of their last six in the series. That wasn't the case back in Week 9 when the Colts stormed back for a 27-24 victory. Indianapolis scored 24 points in the second half, 15 in the fourth quarter.

But the firing of Kubiak is a clear signal that the visitors are planning for next year, and while the home side has locked up the division, there's no question that it will be looking to atone for the dismal defensive effort in Cincinnati last Sunday. Expect this number to continue to fall as the week goes on.

Number of Points Produces 11-5 NFL 'Over/Under'

Throw everything you know about handicapping winter weather out the window – if you don’t mind opening the window in this kind of cold.

Old Man Winter ravaged a number of Week 14 games but couldn’t freeze out the NFL’s red-hot offenses, with 90 touchdowns being scored during Sunday’s 14 games. Add to that Jacksonville’s 27-20 win over Houston Thursday and Chicago’s 45-28 blowout over Dallas Monday and there were 859 total points scored – the most in any week in NFL history.

All those points added up to an 11-5 'Over/Under' record for Week 14.

The only games that played Under the total were Tampa Bay’s 27-6 win over Buffalo, Green Bay’s 22-21 victory versus Atlanta, Arizona’s 30-10 win against St. Louis, San Francisco's 19-17 win over Seattle and New Orleans’ one-sided 31-13 victory over Carolina Sunday night.

The Packers’ home win was the only game of those five that was played in the cold but didn’t see nearly as much snow as games played outdoors on the East Coast. Detroit, Washington, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all had substantial snow fall before and during the games, but all tipped the total. Those four games combined to score 226 total points.

Denver Broncos head coach John Fox, who had to battle the chilly Mile High weather but no snow Sunday, told the media that the slippery conditions don’t handicap an offense but actually help it. The winter weather helped kick returners give coverage the slip, with five return touchdowns scored in those snow games Sunday.

"Some people don't understand that," Fox told USA Today. "That's why you saw a lot of those long touchdowns, particularly in the kicking game, as well, as when guys can't get their footing, they miss tackles, and that creates explosive plays."

That eruption of offense in Week 14 hasn’t done much to sway the oddsmakers’ methods for setting the NFL Over/Under in Week 15. Only a handful of totals are sitting in the 50s with a few dropping as low as 40.5 points.

And the weather is a little better for Sunday’s action. Only two games – Chicago at Cleveland and Seattle at New York – have snow in the forecast.

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan

Albert Einstein was no big NFL bettor, but his definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. By that logic, Einstein is getting down on the Indianapolis Colts -6 against the Houston Texans while the gettin’ is good in Week 15.

Sportsbooks continue to give credit to the Texans week after week, despite not wining since Week 2 of the schedule and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Thursday. That primetime spanking cost Houston head coach Gary Kubiak his job, leaving defensive coordinator Wade Phillips at the wheel in the final week of the season.

Houston was a 3-point road favorite in Jacksonville last week, and outside of a valiant effort against the Patriots in Week 13, hasn’t done anything to warrant the respect books continue to give the Texans. They are just 3-10 ATS and are likely looking ahead to the NFL Draft, where a No. 1 overall pick would hand them the QB of their choice.

But for now, Houston rides out the final games of 2013 with Case Keenum as the team’s elected starter and Matt Schaub backing him up. The biggest issue is that Keenum was Kubiak’s guy. The two worked very closely when Schaub went down with a leg injury and the young QB could be rattled without his corner man.

The Colts clinched the AFC South despite losing to Cincinnati Sunday but head coach Chuck Pagano says he won’t rest his players. He’s not happy with their current form – splitting wins and losses in their last six – and told reporters they have plenty to work on before the postseason begins.

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+5.5, 46.5)

The difference in the Saints’ play at home and away is about as glaring as the difference between Tara Reid circa 1999 American Pie and Tara Reid circa 2013 Sharknado: Smoky-voiced blonde bombshell vs. Dog-chewed leather slipper.

However, books have taken this home/away split a little too far in Week 15, setting New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite in St. Louis.

Football bettors have watched Drew Brees and New Orleans stall on the road in outdoor venues like Seattle, New York, Chicago and Tampa Bay but won’t be battling the elements inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.

The Rams defense was keeping the team competitive but has cracked the last two games, allowing 53 points in losses to San Francisco and Arizona. St. Louis’ dreaded pass rush had just one sack on slow-motion QB Carson Palmer this weekend. Brees has been sacked just 26 times all season.

Vikings' Peterson won't need surgery, unlikely for Week 15

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson avoided serious injury and won't need surgery on his sprained right foot, but is unlikely to suit up in Week 15 versus the Philadelphia Eagles, sources said.

ESPN reported, Peterson, who sustained the injury in the second quarter of Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens, went through a bevy of test on Monday. X-Rays came back negative and an MRI showed no structural damage. But when the results of a CT scan came back it was determined that the reigning MVP would have to spend some time in a walking boot.

The Viking (7-6 ATS), are currently 4.5-point home dogs against the high-flying Eagles, who have won five in a row (4-1 ATS in that span). So keep an eye on the spread, because if Peterson is officially ruled out this week look for that number to jump even more in the Eagles favor.

Minnesota is now 3-9-1 and are officially eliminated from the playoffs, so they may not have much reason to rush Peterson back.