[h=1]How to bet Johnson vs. Benavidez[/h][h=3]Finding the value in UFC on Fox 9's main event and other bouts on the card[/h]By John Candido | FightMetric
Some MMA fans claim that the lighter weight classes are inherently more exciting, and if this statement has any truth to it, then Saturday night's prime-time event should be quite a show, as the top class on the main card will be at lightweight.
Headlining UFC on Fox 9 will be the rematch between top flyweights Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez, who last met in a match for the then-interim belt. Given the close split decision in favor of Johnson, the second fight between the champ "Mighty Mouse" and viable contender Benavidez should deliver some of the highest technical ability in the sport.
The rest of the main card features a number of other top-level matches, including Urijah Faber versus Michael McDonald, Chad Mendes versus Nik Lentz and Joe Lauzon versus Mac Danzig.
We'll take a look at the stats and odds behind the fights to see whether Johnson has the skills to repeat his previous performance against Benavidez, in addition to finding value in the other fights on Saturday night.
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[h=3]Demetrious Johnson (minus-135) versus Joseph Benavidez (plus-115)[/h]
While the original fight might be a distant memory to many fans, clouded by the recent success of both fighters, the oddsmakers haven't forgotten just how close the first bout was, ending in a split-decision win for Johnson, the current champ. Since then, Johnson has defended his title twice, against some of the more dangerous strikers in the division. And with Benavidez winning two of his last three fights by KO/TKO, Johnson will again have to deal with one of the most dynamic forces at flyweight.
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Fortunately, Johnson seems to possess all of the skills necessary to repeat his first victory, as he made good use of his talents by successfully negating Benavidez's strengths with those of his own. Having never lost by KO/TKO in his 21-fight career, Johnson heavily relies on his terrific speed and movement, absorbing a very low 1.9 strikes per minute (SAPM). But what's more impressive is Johnson's ability to knock opponents off of their game with his prolific offensive efficiency, both standing and on the ground. With the combination of landing 3.32 strikes per minute (SLPM) and 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, Johnson rarely finds it difficult to control the pace of the fight and consistently generates enough offense to come out on top of the scorecards.
In this fight, however, the biggest advantage for Johnson, as in the first bout, is Benavidez's subpar ability to stop the takedown, which he has successfully defended at just a 53 percent rate in his career. And if history is any indication, with Johnson having successfully landed five out of 10 of his takedown attempts against Benavidez in their original fight, one might argue that Johnson still possesses the edge to stifle Benavidez's attack and create enough offense of his own, which likely landed him as the UFC's first flyweight champion the first time around. Thus, with the odds at just minus-135 in Johnson's favor, in a fight that he should again have the skill set to win, consider the reigning champ a great bet to defend his title for the third consecutive time.
Insider value pick: Johnson
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[h=3]Urijah Faber (minus-150) versus Michael McDonald (plus-130)[/h]
Just a year ago, McDonald was one of the fastest-rising stars in the bantamweight division, as he had won four fights in a row upon entering the UFC at the very young age of 19. But experienced opponents appeared to be too much for this prodigy, as the current bantamweight belt holder, Renan Barao, defeated McDonald definitively via arm-triangle choke in their fight for the interim belt. Since that loss, McDonald has gained a submission victory in the second round over Brad Pickett and looks to continue his return to the top of the division, as a win over MMA legend Faber would surely make a statement.
The biggest advantage McDonald will hold over Faber is the fact that he stands a full three inches taller at 5-foot-9. Utilizing his height, McDonald has repeatedly gotten the best of exchanges, averaging 3.02 SLPM, while Faber has averaged a lower 2.68 SLPM. And with nine out of McDonald's 15 victories coming by KO in a division where they aren't as common, he poses a unique danger to most fighters in the weight class. Faber, on the other hand, hasn't been stopped in a fight since his classic bout against Mike Brown in 2008. But Faber also hasn't been consistently winning fights either, as he holds an 8-5 record since that loss, though all five losses have come in championship fights.
While most might believe that Faber holds a huge advantage in the wrestling game, consider that he holds only a mediocre 1.54 takedowns per 15 minutes mark. With McDonald possessing a decent 59 percent takedown defense, it isn't a guarantee that Faber will be able to impose his will on McDonald on the ground, especially considering the size advantage that McDonald possesses and his ability to punish opponents with that size. Even with Faber having the ability to challenge McDonald on the ground, at the age of 34, it'd be hard to argue that Faber is a minus-150 favorite against a developing talent like McDonald, whose only weakness has come against an opponent who also recently beat Faber. Thus, given such a large age and height difference, there couldn't be a better time for McDonald to gain a symbolic win against one of the division's greats, and with the ability to do so, consider McDonald as a plus-130 underdog a great value.
Insider value pick: McDonald
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[h=3]Chad Mendes (minus-600) versus Nik Lentz (plus-450)[/h]
Few fighters have been as dominant since entering the UFC as Chad Mendes. Despite his single loss to featherweight champion Jose Aldo, Mendes has made quick work of nearly every opponent he has faced in his seven organizational fights. Having finished four out of these seven opponents in the first round, Mendes looks to continue his dominance as he faces the technically inferior underdog Nik Lentz.
Along with his nearly flawless record, Mendes holds one of the most impressive statistics in the UFC: a 100 percent takedown defense over the course of his last 12 MMA fights. And with Jon Jones recently losing his status of holding a 100 percent takedown defense (which occurred in his fight against Alexander Gustafsson), it puts into focus even more the accomplishment by Mendes to do so against the UFC's top competition. Against Lentz, however, it'd seem he could be somewhat challenged in this regard, as Lentz holds a significant 4.41 takedowns per 15 minute rate. Further, Lentz is quick to get to work on opponents once he gets them to the ground, attempting 1.57 submissions per 15 minutes. But against Mendes, who has never been taken down or submitted, Lentz would have to accomplish the improbable, especially since he'll be more preoccupied with staying off of his own back, only possessing a 47 percent takedown defense.
To make matters worse for Lentz, Mendes holds an even higher 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes average and does so at a very high 58 percent success rate. He also does so while holding one of the best striking defenses in the sport, an extremely low 1.23 strikes absorbed per minute rate, virtually taking no damage in the process of executing his offensive plan. With Lentz absorbing a much higher 2.7 strikes per minute, and having been stopped once in his last four fights, Mendes should have no problem finishing Lentz, as he is by far the most dangerous opponent "The Carny" has faced in his career. Thus, with no reason to believe that Lentz can successfully match up with the more skilled Mendes, consider him as a minus-600 favorite an appropriate price.
Insider value pick: Stay away
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[h=3]Joe Lauzon (minus-170) versus Mac Danzig (plus-150)[/h]
When Joe Lauzon takes on Mac Danzig in the first main-card fight of the evening on Saturday, there will be no shortage of experience in the cage, as the two fighters possess a combined 64 fights between them. But despite the impressive fight totals, both fighters have experienced their fair share of ups and downs. While Lauzon has maintained a 9-6 record since joining the UFC, Danzig has a subpar 5-7 record in the Octagon, losing three of his last four fights. But while Lauzon might be the more successful fighter, his status as favorite heading into this fight is more legitimized by the matchup than it is by his record.
The most notable aspect of Lauzon's game is his submission prowess; he holds the seventh-highest average for submissions attempted per 15 minutes at 3.41. Lauzon also is very successful at getting opponents to the ground, where he can implement his submission game, averaging 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. With Danzig not holding the strongest takedown defense, successfully thwarting just 49 percent of attempts, Lauzon should have a good chance at attempting plenty of submissions against him. And with Lauzon having won 18 of his 22 victories by submission, it'd be no surprise if he was able to close out Danzig in this fashion, especially since Danzig has twice fallen victim to submissions.
While it's true that Lauzon does absorb a ton of damage while implementing his offense, with a very large 4.69 SAPM, Danzig also tends to take a lot of damage, with an elevated 3.15 SAPM. And with neither fighter being much of a knockout artist -- having only nine combined KO/TKO victories in their careers -- this fight will likely come down to a Lauzon submission or a decision in his favor, given that he is more than capable of getting Danzig to the ground and keeping busy while he is down there. Thus, consider Lauzon as only a minus-170 favorite to be great odds, as he appears to be the fighter with the more than clear path to victory.
Insider value pick: Lauzon
Some MMA fans claim that the lighter weight classes are inherently more exciting, and if this statement has any truth to it, then Saturday night's prime-time event should be quite a show, as the top class on the main card will be at lightweight.
Headlining UFC on Fox 9 will be the rematch between top flyweights Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez, who last met in a match for the then-interim belt. Given the close split decision in favor of Johnson, the second fight between the champ "Mighty Mouse" and viable contender Benavidez should deliver some of the highest technical ability in the sport.
The rest of the main card features a number of other top-level matches, including Urijah Faber versus Michael McDonald, Chad Mendes versus Nik Lentz and Joe Lauzon versus Mac Danzig.
We'll take a look at the stats and odds behind the fights to see whether Johnson has the skills to repeat his previous performance against Benavidez, in addition to finding value in the other fights on Saturday night.
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[h=3]Demetrious Johnson (minus-135) versus Joseph Benavidez (plus-115)[/h]
While the original fight might be a distant memory to many fans, clouded by the recent success of both fighters, the oddsmakers haven't forgotten just how close the first bout was, ending in a split-decision win for Johnson, the current champ. Since then, Johnson has defended his title twice, against some of the more dangerous strikers in the division. And with Benavidez winning two of his last three fights by KO/TKO, Johnson will again have to deal with one of the most dynamic forces at flyweight.
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Fortunately, Johnson seems to possess all of the skills necessary to repeat his first victory, as he made good use of his talents by successfully negating Benavidez's strengths with those of his own. Having never lost by KO/TKO in his 21-fight career, Johnson heavily relies on his terrific speed and movement, absorbing a very low 1.9 strikes per minute (SAPM). But what's more impressive is Johnson's ability to knock opponents off of their game with his prolific offensive efficiency, both standing and on the ground. With the combination of landing 3.32 strikes per minute (SLPM) and 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, Johnson rarely finds it difficult to control the pace of the fight and consistently generates enough offense to come out on top of the scorecards.
In this fight, however, the biggest advantage for Johnson, as in the first bout, is Benavidez's subpar ability to stop the takedown, which he has successfully defended at just a 53 percent rate in his career. And if history is any indication, with Johnson having successfully landed five out of 10 of his takedown attempts against Benavidez in their original fight, one might argue that Johnson still possesses the edge to stifle Benavidez's attack and create enough offense of his own, which likely landed him as the UFC's first flyweight champion the first time around. Thus, with the odds at just minus-135 in Johnson's favor, in a fight that he should again have the skill set to win, consider the reigning champ a great bet to defend his title for the third consecutive time.
Insider value pick: Johnson
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[h=3]Urijah Faber (minus-150) versus Michael McDonald (plus-130)[/h]
Just a year ago, McDonald was one of the fastest-rising stars in the bantamweight division, as he had won four fights in a row upon entering the UFC at the very young age of 19. But experienced opponents appeared to be too much for this prodigy, as the current bantamweight belt holder, Renan Barao, defeated McDonald definitively via arm-triangle choke in their fight for the interim belt. Since that loss, McDonald has gained a submission victory in the second round over Brad Pickett and looks to continue his return to the top of the division, as a win over MMA legend Faber would surely make a statement.
The biggest advantage McDonald will hold over Faber is the fact that he stands a full three inches taller at 5-foot-9. Utilizing his height, McDonald has repeatedly gotten the best of exchanges, averaging 3.02 SLPM, while Faber has averaged a lower 2.68 SLPM. And with nine out of McDonald's 15 victories coming by KO in a division where they aren't as common, he poses a unique danger to most fighters in the weight class. Faber, on the other hand, hasn't been stopped in a fight since his classic bout against Mike Brown in 2008. But Faber also hasn't been consistently winning fights either, as he holds an 8-5 record since that loss, though all five losses have come in championship fights.
While most might believe that Faber holds a huge advantage in the wrestling game, consider that he holds only a mediocre 1.54 takedowns per 15 minutes mark. With McDonald possessing a decent 59 percent takedown defense, it isn't a guarantee that Faber will be able to impose his will on McDonald on the ground, especially considering the size advantage that McDonald possesses and his ability to punish opponents with that size. Even with Faber having the ability to challenge McDonald on the ground, at the age of 34, it'd be hard to argue that Faber is a minus-150 favorite against a developing talent like McDonald, whose only weakness has come against an opponent who also recently beat Faber. Thus, given such a large age and height difference, there couldn't be a better time for McDonald to gain a symbolic win against one of the division's greats, and with the ability to do so, consider McDonald as a plus-130 underdog a great value.
Insider value pick: McDonald
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[h=3]Chad Mendes (minus-600) versus Nik Lentz (plus-450)[/h]
Few fighters have been as dominant since entering the UFC as Chad Mendes. Despite his single loss to featherweight champion Jose Aldo, Mendes has made quick work of nearly every opponent he has faced in his seven organizational fights. Having finished four out of these seven opponents in the first round, Mendes looks to continue his dominance as he faces the technically inferior underdog Nik Lentz.
Along with his nearly flawless record, Mendes holds one of the most impressive statistics in the UFC: a 100 percent takedown defense over the course of his last 12 MMA fights. And with Jon Jones recently losing his status of holding a 100 percent takedown defense (which occurred in his fight against Alexander Gustafsson), it puts into focus even more the accomplishment by Mendes to do so against the UFC's top competition. Against Lentz, however, it'd seem he could be somewhat challenged in this regard, as Lentz holds a significant 4.41 takedowns per 15 minute rate. Further, Lentz is quick to get to work on opponents once he gets them to the ground, attempting 1.57 submissions per 15 minutes. But against Mendes, who has never been taken down or submitted, Lentz would have to accomplish the improbable, especially since he'll be more preoccupied with staying off of his own back, only possessing a 47 percent takedown defense.
To make matters worse for Lentz, Mendes holds an even higher 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes average and does so at a very high 58 percent success rate. He also does so while holding one of the best striking defenses in the sport, an extremely low 1.23 strikes absorbed per minute rate, virtually taking no damage in the process of executing his offensive plan. With Lentz absorbing a much higher 2.7 strikes per minute, and having been stopped once in his last four fights, Mendes should have no problem finishing Lentz, as he is by far the most dangerous opponent "The Carny" has faced in his career. Thus, with no reason to believe that Lentz can successfully match up with the more skilled Mendes, consider him as a minus-600 favorite an appropriate price.
Insider value pick: Stay away
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[h=3]Joe Lauzon (minus-170) versus Mac Danzig (plus-150)[/h]
When Joe Lauzon takes on Mac Danzig in the first main-card fight of the evening on Saturday, there will be no shortage of experience in the cage, as the two fighters possess a combined 64 fights between them. But despite the impressive fight totals, both fighters have experienced their fair share of ups and downs. While Lauzon has maintained a 9-6 record since joining the UFC, Danzig has a subpar 5-7 record in the Octagon, losing three of his last four fights. But while Lauzon might be the more successful fighter, his status as favorite heading into this fight is more legitimized by the matchup than it is by his record.
The most notable aspect of Lauzon's game is his submission prowess; he holds the seventh-highest average for submissions attempted per 15 minutes at 3.41. Lauzon also is very successful at getting opponents to the ground, where he can implement his submission game, averaging 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. With Danzig not holding the strongest takedown defense, successfully thwarting just 49 percent of attempts, Lauzon should have a good chance at attempting plenty of submissions against him. And with Lauzon having won 18 of his 22 victories by submission, it'd be no surprise if he was able to close out Danzig in this fashion, especially since Danzig has twice fallen victim to submissions.
While it's true that Lauzon does absorb a ton of damage while implementing his offense, with a very large 4.69 SAPM, Danzig also tends to take a lot of damage, with an elevated 3.15 SAPM. And with neither fighter being much of a knockout artist -- having only nine combined KO/TKO victories in their careers -- this fight will likely come down to a Lauzon submission or a decision in his favor, given that he is more than capable of getting Danzig to the ground and keeping busy while he is down there. Thus, consider Lauzon as only a minus-170 favorite to be great odds, as he appears to be the fighter with the more than clear path to victory.
Insider value pick: Lauzon
