An argument that it is *never* +EV to buy a mega millions ticket:
[h=2]Do you agree with the article titled
Math Says You Should Buy A Mega Millions Ticket Right Now
at Business Insider?
— Asswhoopermcdaddy[/h] No, I don't agree with it. That is a terrible piece of journalism and Business Insider should be embarrassed by it.
To begin, the article was published on Dec. 17, 2013, before the $636 million drawing that evening. Let's look at the math to evaluate the value of a $1 ticket. The following table shows the probability and expected return of all possible outcomes for the $636 million jackpot, before considering such things as the lump sum penalty, taxes, and jackpot sharing. The top three probabilities are in scientific notation because the numbers are so small.
Mega Millions -- $636 Million Jackpot | | | | | |
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