Service Plays Monday 12/16/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Baltimore at Detroit

The Ravens head to Detroit tonight to face a Lions team that is coming off a 34-20 loss to Philadelphia last weekend and is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in the previous game. Baltimore is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Monday, December 16

BALTIMORE (7 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 6) - 12/16/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NFL

Week 15

Trend Report

Monday, December 16

8:40 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DETROIT
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

NFL

Week 15

Ravens (7-6) @ Lions (7-6)—Detroit continuously shoots itself in foot, turning ball over 20 times in last six games (-15); they’ve lost three of last four games, are big disappointment considering they’re only NFC North team whose QB stayed upright all year. Lions are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 10-8-1-30 points, with big win vs Rodgers-less Packers. Ravens won last three games to stay in contention, surviving bizarre game last week where lead changed hands five times in last 2:05. Baltimore is 1-5 on road, with four of six games decided by exactly three points; they’re 3-2-1 as underdogs this year- this is only second time they’ve been a dog in their last seven games. Lions lost in blizzard last week despite having KR/PRs for TDs; they were outgained 478-228. Home side won all three Raven-Lion games, with Baltimore crushing Detroit 48-3 in last meeting four years ago. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 8-5-2 vs spread, 5-3-2 on road; NFC North favorites are 5-11-2 vs spread, 3-7-2 at home. Six of last eight Detroit games, three of last four Raven games went over the total. Both teams will be glad for dome setting after playing in snow last week.

R.a.w. Football

2* = detroit

Bio Sports Picks

4* Ravens +6

Jimmy Boyd

3* Lions -6

Norm Hitzges

NFL

DOUBLE PLAY

Detroit -6 Baltimore

Bank shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Dec. 8 to 14.

Hottest ATS - Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

The Thunder have won five games in a row going into Sunday's action, covering the spread easily in all five contests, including a 118-94 manhandling of the Eastern Conference leading Indiana Pacers. Kevin Durant has been his typical awesome self during the Thunder's current win streak, scoring 28.8 points and grabbing 8.4 rebounds per game in that span. The Thunder start off the week versus Orlando, then head to Denver, are back home against the spiraling downwards Chicago Bulls, all before a matchup of Western Conference elites in San Antonio.

Coldest ATS - Chicago Bulls (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Speaking of the devil, here sit the Bulls, who seem to be lost this season without Derrick Rose. Not having Rose in the lineup is nothing new for Chicago, but something is different since their star point guard went down this year. They have won only three of their last 10 games, going 2-8 ATS in that stretch, which includes losses to Utah, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Toronto. They have only averaged 79 points per game in their last five contests. This week the Bulls host Orlando, Houston and Oklahoma City on the road and Cleveland back at home.

Best Over play - Detroit Pistons (1-3 SU, 4-0 O/U)

The Pistons, who were last week's hottest team ATS cooled down a bit last week after matchups with Miami and Minnesota and a tough overtime loss at New Orleans. However, the Pistons hit the Over in every game last week and have gone over the total in eight of the past nine games. The Piston's offense has been improving of late, scoring at least 92 points in their past nine games thanks to a balanced attack. All five starters are averaging at least 13 points per game this season. The Pistons have a tough upcoming week with matchups against Portland, Indiana and Houston.

Best Under play - Boston Celtics (2-2 SU, 1-3 O/U)

The Celtics haven't quite figured out this whole 'tanking' thing yet. That is partly due to the fact that the Atlantic Division is one of the worst divisions in recent memory. The Celtics still lead the division with an 11-14 record, but have been a solid Under play all season thanks to their combination of mediocre offense and good defense. They are now a ranked fifth in points against per game at 95.7 while only scoring 94.8 points per game themselves. Boston has a little three game home stand this week, welcoming Minnesota, Detroit and Washington to town.

Surveying the Schedule:

The San Antonio Spurs are on another winning streak. Their current one is at four games, but they will have a tough road ahead if they want to keep the streak going. They are in the midst of a four game road trip with stops remaining against the high-flying L.A. Clippers, the always tough Phoenix Suns and the electric Golden State Warriors. All this before a showdown of two the West's elite teams when the Oklahoma City Thunder come to town next Saturday night.

EPL betting: Man City now 6/5 to win league title

Another strong showing in the Barclays Premier League has Manchester City as the overwhelming favorite in league odds.

The Citizens were scoring goals for the fun of it once again as they dispatched league-leaders Arsenal 6-3 at the Ethihad Stadium Saturday.

Another victory for Everton has their odds on the move, no currently at 40/1 to take league honors.

Below are the current odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook:

MANCHESTER UNITED 20/1
MANCHESTER CITY 6/5
CHELSEA 7/2
ARSENAL 7/2
LIVERPOOL 13/2
TOTTENHAM 80/1
EVERTON 40/1
NEWCASTLE 750/1
ASTON VILLA 2500/1
WEST BROM 5000/1
SOUTHAMPTON 750/1
SWANSEA CITY 1500/1
FULHAM 9000/1
WEST HAM 5000/1
SUNDERLAND 9000/1
STOKE CITY 5000/1
CARDIFF CITY 9000/1
NORWICH CITY 9000/1
HULL CITY 9000/1
CRYSTAL PALACE 9000/1

Tale of the Tape: Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions

The Baltimore Ravens look to continue their improbable run at an AFC playoff berth as they visit the Detroit Lions in the NFL Monday nighter.

The defending-champion Ravens look to be all but out of the postseason picture, but have reeled off three-straight wins to remain in the hunt. The Lions are in the same position, but are coming off a subpar effort in a 34-20 defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Baltimore's offensive attack has been the team's weak spot for most of the season, but has steadily improved over the course of the team's winning streak. The Joe Flacco-led pass assault averages a modest 227.9 yards per game - ranking it in the lower half in the NFL - but tossed three touchdowns in last week's 29-26 triumph over the Minnesota Vikings. The run game remains a black hole, averaging a paltry 82.3 yards per game while compiling just six scores.

The Detroit passing game is among the most potent in the league, coming into the game with an average of 297 yards per contest. Matthew Stafford has thrown 27 touchdown passes on the season, with All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson the biggest beneficiary (1,351 yards, 12 TDs). Detroit has scuffled when it comes to rushing yards - averaging just 112.5 per game - but has racked up 12 touchdowns on the ground, led by Joique Bell's seven scores.

Edge: Detroit

Defense

The days of the Ravens owning one of the league's most imposing defenses are long gone, but Baltimore remains at least respectable on the defensive side of the football. They've surrendered an average of 232 passing yards per contest, having allowed 21 touchdowns while forcing just nine interceptions. The Ravens have piled up 37 sacks, and have been particularly stingy against the run - surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry and three scores this season.

Detroit has followed the same recipe as Baltimore on the defensive end through the first 13 games. The Lions have struggled against the pass for the most part, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 256 yards while giving up 22 touchdowns and snagging 13 interceptions. Teams have had a difficult time running against Detroit, however, averaging just 4.1 yards per attempt while scoring nine TDs.

Edge: Baltimore

Special Teams

Baltimore boasts one of the more impressive return games in the league entering Monday night, averaging 25.7 yards per kickoff return and 14.8 yards per punt return - and having scored a touchdown on both. Opponents are averaging just 22.8 yards per kickoff-return try and 9.6 yards per punt-return attempt. Veteran kicker Justin Tucker has been close to automatic all season long, connecting on 29-of-31 field-goal attempts - including 13-of-15 from 40-plus yards.

Like the Ravens, Detroit has recorded a kick-return and a punt-return touchdown, averaging 26 yards per kickoff return and 9.9 yards per punt return. The Lions are allowing a whopping 26.1 yards per kickoff return, but have limited opponents to 126 yards on 25 total punt returns - and a long run of just 17 yards. Kicker David Akers hasn't been as sharp as he has in recent years, missing five of his 20 field-goal chances and he's just 3-of-6 from between 40 and 49 yards.

Notable Quotable

"Their reputation, they definitely live up to it. I don't know if you want to call it physical or dirty. Whatever the refs see, that's what they see. But needless to say, I'm not going to spark any fire." - Ravens RB Ray Rice on the Lions defense

"Sometimes you just need to know when to keep your mouth shut, but you know, he's a rookie, he'll learn." - Lions WR Calvin Johnson in response to Ravens FS Matt Elam, who referred to Johnson as "old"

Monday Night Football betting: Ravens at Lions

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 50)

Two teams clawing to stay in their respective playoff races square off Monday night when the Detroit Lions host the Baltimore Ravens. Both are bordering on must-win situations, as the Lions enter the weekend tied with Chicago atop the NFC North and the Ravens are tied with Miami for the last AFC wild card. "Our playoffs start this week," Detroit running back Reggie Bush told the team's website. "It doesn't start in three weeks. It starts right now."

The Lions do have some wiggle room by virtue of two head-to-head wins over the Bears, but their margin for error became slimmer when they lost 34-20 in blizzard-like conditions in Philadelphia last week. Bush sat out that game after aggravating a calf injury during warmups - a huge blow on a day when passing was nearly impossible - but is expected to be back on the field against Baltimore. The Ravens won a wild one a week ago, topping Minnesota 29-26 in a game that saw six lead changes in the fourth quarter.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Detroit opened -6 and is now -6.5. The total opened 47.5 and is up to 50.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-6): Baltimore hasn't been able to do much on offense all year and has been especially ineffective in the running game, long a staple of its success. Receiver Torrey Smith, who needs 37 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the first time in his career, is a legitimate deep threat, though, and the Lions have given up a lot of big plays. The Ravens' defense isn't at the elite level as in years past but is still strong against the run, though the secondary could have trouble with Detroit star Calvin Johnson.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-6): The offense sputtered in the snow in Philadelphia, as two of the Lions' three touchdowns came on special teams and Detroit committed three turnovers, bringing its total to 15 over the past four games. Detroit leans heavily on its passing game, and quarterback Matthew Stafford needs just 27 passing yards for his third consecutive 4,000-yard season. The defense has been solid against the run, last week notwithstanding, but is susceptible to the pass.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December.
* Under is 6-0 in Lions last six Monday games.
* Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Flacco needs 262 passing yards to become the first Ravens quarterback with five consecutive seasons of 3,500 yards.

2. Johnson needs seven yards to become the first player in NFL history with 5,000 receiving yards in a three-year span.

3. Ravens K Justin Tucker has made 27 consecutive field goals, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Northcoast 4* Phone-Detroit Lions

Mike O'Connor

DETROIT (-6) 31 Baltimore 20

The Ravens are fortunate to currently stand as the 6th seed in the AFC wildcard race after a 29-26 home win against the Vikings with a Joe Flacco TD pass with 4 seconds on the clock after an 80 yard TD drive that took only 41 seconds. It was a crazy game that was an emotional rollercoaster for the Ravens as they had to come back to take the lead three times in the final 2:05. They were outplayed from the line of scrimmage in this one as they produced 325 yards at 4.2 yppl to 379 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Vikings who were without Adrian Peterson after he injured his foot in the second quarter. The Ravens have now won four of their last five but bring an offense to the table that has not been good this year, particularly in the run game (averaging 83 yards at 3.0 ypr against teams that allow 114 yards at 4.3 ypr on average). They will be matched up against a Lions defense that has defended the run well with a strong defensive line that will be chomping at the bit to redeem themselves after a nightmarish performance in the snow last week where they allowed the Eagles to rush for 301 yards at 6.8 ypr. Meanwhile, the Lions offense has been very good in averaging 411 total yards per game at 6.0 yppl against teams that allow 365 yards at 5.6 yppl and should have an advantage against a Ravens pass defense that has been slightly better than average. Ford Field will be rocking for this Monday night contest with the Lions in control of their playoff destiny and in need of a win to maintain their position in the NFC North. Detroit has played well at home this year (4-2 SU, 3-3ATS) while the Ravens are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. My model favors the Lions in this contest (-11.5) and with some good match-ups on their side I like the Lions minus the points.

PREDICTION MACHINE

Baltimore Ravens +6 @ Detroit Lions (Covers 53.2%), OVER 48 (Covers 55.9%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Baltimore 23.6 - Detroit 28.3
SU Pick and Win%: Detroit wins 61.3%
Week 15 SU Confidence Rank: #7
ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens +6 covers 53.2%
Week 15 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $9
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (48) 55.9%
Week 15 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $37

NFL's biggest betting mismatches

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6, 48)

Ravens’ LB Elvis Dumervil vs. Lions’ turnover troubles

This mismatch could swing to either side, depending on the ankle of Dumervil, who sat out last week’s thriller against Minnesota. Baltimore’s pass rush has been toothless without their newest addition to the linebacking corps. It failed to record a single sack against the Vikings, allowing Matt Cassel to throw for 265 yards and two TDs Sunday, and has just three sacks total in the past three games. Dumervil, who leads the team with 9.5 sacks, is questionable but holding out hope for a return in Week 15.

Without their top sack master, the Ravens may not be able to get to Lions QB Matt Stafford. Stafford has been at the center of Detroit’s three-game losing skid, throwing six interceptions during that skid. He had a clean sheet in last Sunday’s snow ball with the Eagles, but only threw the ball 25 times – his fewest attempts all season – and didn’t face any pass rush in that blizzard. If Dumervil is ready to go, that pressure could force more mistakes from Stafford.

Pointspreadpros

Week 15 TOP Play

Baltimore +6

Brady Kannon

NFL
Detroit Lions-6

Jimmy Moore (Youwinnow)

#334 4* Detroit Lions -5.5 (8:35 est) ESPN

The Lions have been their own worst enemy over their past few games with penalties and turnovers. They will have an easier time tonight at the comfort of their own indoor stadium and with a very fired up home crowd. Detroit knows they control their destiny in that they win the division if they win their last 3 games and with 2 of those at home and the road game being Minnesota they have a realistic shot if they don't beat themselves. Look for a big time effort from Detroit and the Ford Field crowd here. Thank you and good luck.