[h=1]MNF Chaser: How to bet BAL-DET[/h][h=3]How to bet Baltimore-Detroit and early Week 16 line moves[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Monday night's Baltimore Ravens-Detroit Lions game has a tough act to follow after another wild NFL Sunday.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
Actually, the Week 15 wildness started Thursday with the Chargers' 27-20 upset of the Broncos as a 10-point road underdog and continued with a mix of blowouts and fantastic finishes, highlighted by the Packers' rally from a 23-point deficit to beat the Cowboys 27-26, Jamaal Charles' five-touchdown performance in the Chiefs' 56-31 rout of the Raiders and the Patriots' and Bengals' failing bids to improve their playoff position. Overs again ruled the day as they went 10-4 on Sunday after Thursday's under, while favorites are 7-6-2 ATS heading into Monday night. Here are the updated NFL betting results heading into Monday night's game:
Favorites: 152-68-1 SU, 111-102-6 (52.1 percent) ... four games have closed consensus pick 'em (no favorite)
Home teams: 134-85-1 SU, 118-96-6 ATS (55.1 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London and one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 30-48 SU, 40-36-2 ATS (52.6 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 7-19 SU, 16-9-1 ATS (64 percent)
Over/unders: 120-98-5 (55 percent)
Below we'll turn our attention first to picking Monday night's game -- which has seen the Lions get bet up to a 6.5-point favorite over the Ravens with some books already at 7 as of this writing early Monday morning. Then I'll get into my lessons from Week 15 and the early line movement in the Week 16 lines.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions[/h]
Spread: Opened Detroit -6; now Detriot -6
Total: Opened 49; now 50.5
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[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com: "I bet Detroit minus-5.5 earlier in the week and at 6.5 or less that is the side I would want to be on in this contest. My numbers have this game lined at minus-9, but Detroit has played much better at home this year and the Ravens have not fared as well on the road. Last week the Ravens pulled another rabbit out of the hat, scoring a TD with 4 seconds left to beat the Vikings in another game in which they were outplayed in the stats department. Meanwhile, the Lions where crushed by a very good Eagles team in the snow in a game that because of the weather conditions I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Turnovers have killed the Lions this year, especially lately, as Detroit is minus-15 in that department including minus-8 in fumbles lost over their last six games.
"Detroit qualifies in a couple bounce-back situations based on last week's results and my turnover table situation, which continues to perform well every season. Off an embarrassing performance in the snow, in a rare national TV stand-alone Monday night game I think we get a great effort in this nonconference showdown out of the Lions and they win this one by double digits."
ATS pick: Lions
Patrick Donovan of sportsboss.com: "In a game with tons of playoff implications for both sides, I am going to back the home team and lay the points versus the defending Super Bowl champs. The Lions rank third in home performance this season, according to my ratings, while the Ravens have been a midpack road-performing team. In today's NFL the passing game and turnovers determine winners and losers, and in this game I feel both those edges fall on the Lions' side. In addition to those points, all four of my major models favor a Lions win with three of the four suggesting a win by 7 points or more."
ATS pick: Lions
Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com: "Since 1999 Baltimore has often been a great team at home (74 percent SU, 59 percent ATS) but a very different one on the road (46 percent SU, 50 percent ATS). This season has been typical: 6-1 SU at home, 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December. This offense has had problems all year, ranking 20th in passing and 29th in rushing. Detroit is in first place with no such problems on offense. They are third in the NFL in passing behind Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson and sixth in points with 26.6 points per game (31.7 at home). By contrast, Baltimore is 24th in the NFL in scoring. The Lions are 5-2 ATS after a spread loss and the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Play the Lions."
ATS pick: Lions
Dave Tuley: "Personally, I think this game should be a lot closer to pick 'em with the defending champion Ravens, who are actually playing better than they were last year at this time, taking on the Lions, who still have problems closing out games. The Ravens' back-and-forth win over the Vikings was flattered by Minny's rout of the Eagles on Sunday. I liked this game at plus-6 in my 'Tuley's Take' column (though I left it off my SuperContest card), but I like it even more at a full touchdown. In what should amount to a playoff-type atmosphere, I'll take the more experienced team plus the generous points."
ATS pick: Ravens
[h=3]Tuley's Week 15 Takeaways[/h]
1. JBATMWDMIWW -- Take 2
What does that mean? "Just because a team must win doesn't mean it will win." I used this in Week 14's "Opening Line" column, but it still applies. The Broncos, Patriots and Bengals all lost chances to enhance their shots at an AFC bye. They at least had the excuse of facing the Chargers, Dolphins and Steelers, respectively, who were trying to keep their wild-card hopes alive. But the Eagles and Saints, who were playing also-rans in the Vikings and Rams, also both came up short. The Panthers and Cardinals had more to play for in their games against the Jets and Titans as well, and while both teams won, they only managed to push against the closing lines. Just beware of those games that look too easy with teams fighting for playoff spots against also-rans. Some games that qualify similarly in Week 16: Dolphins over Bills, Cowboys over Redskins, Broncos over Texans, Lions over Giants, Chargers over Raiders, 49ers over Falcons.
2. Al Michaels is still bettors' favorite announcer
Yes, I know Brent Musburger never hesitates to get the betting odds into a broadcast, and he holds a special place in my heart as my first exposure to sports betting with him and Jimmy "the Greek" on the "NFL Today" show in the '70s. He also started his career in DeKalb, Ill. (I went to school at Northern Illinois). But for my money, Michaels is still the best. On Sunday night, after the Bengals' scored to pull within 30-20 of the Steelers (which all bettors knew put the game over the total of 44.5), they came back from commercial and Michaels was talking with Cris Collinsworth about how Sunday was the highest-scoring day in NFL history and added that it was over-whelming. Yes, Al, we got it. And we appreciate it. It's also clear that no total is safe in today's NFL. The overs are 10-5 on the week heading into the Monday night game and are 120-98-5, hitting 55 percent on the season.
3. NFC West continues to roll; over/under leaders leveling off
We mentioned last week how the NFC West had the top three teams in the NFL ATS standings (see below). Well, on Sunday, the 49ers and Seahawks rolled to easy wins and covers while the Cardinals managed a push (after blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead) against the Titans to fall a half-game behind their division-mates. For good measure, the Rams knocked off the Saints as the NFC West went 3-0-1 ATS. The Dolphins covered for the fifth straight game, matching the Seahawks for the longest current winning streak, and are a game behind the leaders. The Texans are now the undisputed bottom-feeder at 3-11 ATS as the Redskins covered in their 27-26 loss to the Falcons.
In totals, wagering, the under in Thursday night's game dropped the Broncos to 11-3 with the over but they still have a half-game lead on the Vikings at 10-3-1 and Bears at 10-4. The Panthers' had their six-game under streak snapped in their 30-20 win over the Jets and dropped into a tie with the Saints for the best under record at 9-4-1. (Note: The Panthers and Saints meet again Sunday with the over/under around 46 points.)
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, the LVH put up its Week 16 openers, including those involving teams still playing on Sunday and Monday night. And I know I'm sounding like a broken record (for those old enough to know what that expression even means), but the only game left off the betting board was again involving the Green Bay Packers, as oddsmakers wait to see whether Aaron Rodgers will finally be cleared to play.
[h=3]Early Week 16 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
Dolphins minus-3 (even) at Bills: There are no more Thursday games this season, so this tops the Sunday card. While this also opened at 3 at the Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas, most offshore books went with Dolphins minus-2.5. This could waver back and forth between the two lines, but I'd expect the 3 to win out after the Dolphins' win over the Patriots.
Saints at Panthers minus-3: The advance line at the LVH last week was Panthers minus-2.5, so we saw the adjustment to 3 at the LVH and most other books after the Panthers' win over the Jets and the Saints' road loss at St. Louis. However, the Wynn went with minus-3.5 (even money) and William Hill went from minus-3 to minus-3.5 (minus-120), so we could see 3.5 end up as the more prominent number.<!-- begin inline 3 --> [h=4]Week 16 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Dolphins -3 EV
Bills
Saints
Panthers -3
Cowboys -3
Redskins
Buccaneers
Rams -4
Bears
Eagles -3.5
Browns
Jets -3
Colts
Chiefs -5
Vikings
Bengals -8.5
Broncos -10.5
Texans
Titans -5
Jaguars
Cardinals
Seahawks -10
Giants
Lions -9.5
Raiders
Chargers -10
Steelers
Packers OFF
Patriots
Ravens -1.5
Falcons (Monday)
49ers -13
<!-- end inline 3 -->Cowboys minus-3 at Redskins: The advance line was Cowboys minus-4, but the Redskins' showing new life in their spread-covering loss at Atlanta coupled with the Cowboys' collapse against the Packers caused this to be adjusted to minus-3 at the LVH and minus-2.5 offshore. It could waver between the two numbers, though it's more likely to end up on 3.
Buccaneers at Rams minus-4: The advance line was Rams minus-3 and was reopened at minus-4 after their home upset of the Saints, while the Bucs were blown out by the 49ers. It opened as high as 5.5 offshore, but by late Sunday night it had been bet up to 4.5 at LVH and it looks like it should settle right around there.
Bears at Eagles minus-3.5: This game was moved to Sunday night. The advance line was Eagles minus-6, but was reopened at 3.5 after their loss to the Vikings and the Bears' win over the Browns. The CRIS offshore book opened at 4 but was bet down, as 3.5 looks like the right number.
Browns at Jets minus-3: The LVH, which has this at minus-3 (even) last week, reopened at minus-3 while offshores opened at pick 'em and minus-1. The LVH was bet down to 2.5 and it looks like this will stay in that area, under a field goal.
Colts at Chiefs minus-5: This was minus-5.5 last week and reopened by the LVH at 5, but offshores as well as the Wynn and William Hill in Vegas opened at 6.5 after both teams' blowout wins. The line was bet up to 6 at the LVH, and it looks like that's where the market will settle.
Vikings at Bengals minus-8.5: The advance line on this game was Bengals minus-9.5 and reopened at 8.5 after the Vikings' upset of the Eagles. But this was before the Bengals' 30-20 loss to the Steelers on Sunday night, so we'll see if it's adjusted further down -- though the line should end up at least a touchdown.
Broncos minus-10.5 at Texans: This was 10.5 last week before the Broncos' loss to the Chargers on Thursday night, and the LVH kept it at 10.5 on Sunday afternoon after the Texans were blown out by the Colts. CRIS adjusted it to 9.5 but was bet up to 10, so it looks like it'll settle at 10 or 10.5.
Titans minus-5 at Jaguars: The advance line was minus-3 but bumped up to 5 at the LVH on Sunday (and offshore at 5.5) after both teams lost. This will likely be the game with the lowest betting handle and it looks like it'll stay in that dead area around 5.
Cardinals at Seahawks minus-10: This was at minus-10.5 last week at the LVH, but even with the Seahawks' shutout of the Giants, it was adjusted down to 10 at the LVH and 9.5 offshore. I wouldn't be surprised to see it settle right at 10.
Giants at Lions minus-9.5: This was at minus-7.5 last week at the LVH and reopened at 9.5 after the Giants' 23-0 loss to the Seahawks. Detroit's Monday night game against the Ravens will have an impact on where it goes from there.
Raiders at Chargers minus-10: The advance line at the LVH last week was Chargers minus-7.5, but after their upset of the Broncos and the Raiders' loss to the Chiefs, it was adjusted to 10. CRIS opened at 7.5 and was bet up to 10, but I think that'll be the peak, so if you like the Raiders, I'd say to take the plus-10 now.
Steelers at Packers OFF: As stated in the "Off-the-board report" above, this is the only game the LVH kept off the board due to Rodgers' uncertain status. If Rodgers is cleared to play, the Packers could be favored by close to a touchdown; if not, it should be around pick 'em.
Patriots at Ravens minus-1.5: This was pick 'em last week and adjusted to Ravens minus-1.5 at the LVH after the Patriots' loss to the Dolphins. We'll see how Baltimore's Monday night game affects the line.
Falcons at 49ers minus-13 (Monday): The advance line last week was minus-11 and adjusted to 13 after the 49ers' more impressive win on Sunday. CRIS opened minus-10.5 and William Hill went with 12.5, but as of early Monday morning it looks like 13 will be the number.
So there's the opening look at the Week 16 lines. Join us Thursday (moved up from its previous Friday spot) for our "Tuley's Take" column as we look at how the public and wiseguys view this weekend's action and I give my "take" on each game after the lines have settled.
LAS VEGAS -- Monday night's Baltimore Ravens-Detroit Lions game has a tough act to follow after another wild NFL Sunday.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
Actually, the Week 15 wildness started Thursday with the Chargers' 27-20 upset of the Broncos as a 10-point road underdog and continued with a mix of blowouts and fantastic finishes, highlighted by the Packers' rally from a 23-point deficit to beat the Cowboys 27-26, Jamaal Charles' five-touchdown performance in the Chiefs' 56-31 rout of the Raiders and the Patriots' and Bengals' failing bids to improve their playoff position. Overs again ruled the day as they went 10-4 on Sunday after Thursday's under, while favorites are 7-6-2 ATS heading into Monday night. Here are the updated NFL betting results heading into Monday night's game:
Favorites: 152-68-1 SU, 111-102-6 (52.1 percent) ... four games have closed consensus pick 'em (no favorite)
Home teams: 134-85-1 SU, 118-96-6 ATS (55.1 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London and one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 30-48 SU, 40-36-2 ATS (52.6 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 7-19 SU, 16-9-1 ATS (64 percent)
Over/unders: 120-98-5 (55 percent)
Below we'll turn our attention first to picking Monday night's game -- which has seen the Lions get bet up to a 6.5-point favorite over the Ravens with some books already at 7 as of this writing early Monday morning. Then I'll get into my lessons from Week 15 and the early line movement in the Week 16 lines.
Spread: Opened Detroit -6; now Detriot -6
Total: Opened 49; now 50.5
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[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com: "I bet Detroit minus-5.5 earlier in the week and at 6.5 or less that is the side I would want to be on in this contest. My numbers have this game lined at minus-9, but Detroit has played much better at home this year and the Ravens have not fared as well on the road. Last week the Ravens pulled another rabbit out of the hat, scoring a TD with 4 seconds left to beat the Vikings in another game in which they were outplayed in the stats department. Meanwhile, the Lions where crushed by a very good Eagles team in the snow in a game that because of the weather conditions I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Turnovers have killed the Lions this year, especially lately, as Detroit is minus-15 in that department including minus-8 in fumbles lost over their last six games.
"Detroit qualifies in a couple bounce-back situations based on last week's results and my turnover table situation, which continues to perform well every season. Off an embarrassing performance in the snow, in a rare national TV stand-alone Monday night game I think we get a great effort in this nonconference showdown out of the Lions and they win this one by double digits."
ATS pick: Lions
Patrick Donovan of sportsboss.com: "In a game with tons of playoff implications for both sides, I am going to back the home team and lay the points versus the defending Super Bowl champs. The Lions rank third in home performance this season, according to my ratings, while the Ravens have been a midpack road-performing team. In today's NFL the passing game and turnovers determine winners and losers, and in this game I feel both those edges fall on the Lions' side. In addition to those points, all four of my major models favor a Lions win with three of the four suggesting a win by 7 points or more."
ATS pick: Lions
Geoff Kulesa of wunderdog.com: "Since 1999 Baltimore has often been a great team at home (74 percent SU, 59 percent ATS) but a very different one on the road (46 percent SU, 50 percent ATS). This season has been typical: 6-1 SU at home, 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December. This offense has had problems all year, ranking 20th in passing and 29th in rushing. Detroit is in first place with no such problems on offense. They are third in the NFL in passing behind Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson and sixth in points with 26.6 points per game (31.7 at home). By contrast, Baltimore is 24th in the NFL in scoring. The Lions are 5-2 ATS after a spread loss and the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Play the Lions."
ATS pick: Lions
Dave Tuley: "Personally, I think this game should be a lot closer to pick 'em with the defending champion Ravens, who are actually playing better than they were last year at this time, taking on the Lions, who still have problems closing out games. The Ravens' back-and-forth win over the Vikings was flattered by Minny's rout of the Eagles on Sunday. I liked this game at plus-6 in my 'Tuley's Take' column (though I left it off my SuperContest card), but I like it even more at a full touchdown. In what should amount to a playoff-type atmosphere, I'll take the more experienced team plus the generous points."
ATS pick: Ravens
[h=3]Tuley's Week 15 Takeaways[/h]
1. JBATMWDMIWW -- Take 2
What does that mean? "Just because a team must win doesn't mean it will win." I used this in Week 14's "Opening Line" column, but it still applies. The Broncos, Patriots and Bengals all lost chances to enhance their shots at an AFC bye. They at least had the excuse of facing the Chargers, Dolphins and Steelers, respectively, who were trying to keep their wild-card hopes alive. But the Eagles and Saints, who were playing also-rans in the Vikings and Rams, also both came up short. The Panthers and Cardinals had more to play for in their games against the Jets and Titans as well, and while both teams won, they only managed to push against the closing lines. Just beware of those games that look too easy with teams fighting for playoff spots against also-rans. Some games that qualify similarly in Week 16: Dolphins over Bills, Cowboys over Redskins, Broncos over Texans, Lions over Giants, Chargers over Raiders, 49ers over Falcons.
2. Al Michaels is still bettors' favorite announcer
Yes, I know Brent Musburger never hesitates to get the betting odds into a broadcast, and he holds a special place in my heart as my first exposure to sports betting with him and Jimmy "the Greek" on the "NFL Today" show in the '70s. He also started his career in DeKalb, Ill. (I went to school at Northern Illinois). But for my money, Michaels is still the best. On Sunday night, after the Bengals' scored to pull within 30-20 of the Steelers (which all bettors knew put the game over the total of 44.5), they came back from commercial and Michaels was talking with Cris Collinsworth about how Sunday was the highest-scoring day in NFL history and added that it was over-whelming. Yes, Al, we got it. And we appreciate it. It's also clear that no total is safe in today's NFL. The overs are 10-5 on the week heading into the Monday night game and are 120-98-5, hitting 55 percent on the season.
3. NFC West continues to roll; over/under leaders leveling off
We mentioned last week how the NFC West had the top three teams in the NFL ATS standings (see below). Well, on Sunday, the 49ers and Seahawks rolled to easy wins and covers while the Cardinals managed a push (after blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead) against the Titans to fall a half-game behind their division-mates. For good measure, the Rams knocked off the Saints as the NFC West went 3-0-1 ATS. The Dolphins covered for the fifth straight game, matching the Seahawks for the longest current winning streak, and are a game behind the leaders. The Texans are now the undisputed bottom-feeder at 3-11 ATS as the Redskins covered in their 27-26 loss to the Falcons.
In totals, wagering, the under in Thursday night's game dropped the Broncos to 11-3 with the over but they still have a half-game lead on the Vikings at 10-3-1 and Bears at 10-4. The Panthers' had their six-game under streak snapped in their 30-20 win over the Jets and dropped into a tie with the Saints for the best under record at 9-4-1. (Note: The Panthers and Saints meet again Sunday with the over/under around 46 points.)
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com all records based on VFV Consensus Closing Lines; teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record then ATS streak; O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks (12-2) | 10-4 | W5 | 6-8 | U3 |
| San Francisco 49ers (10-4) | 10-4 | W1 | 6-8 | O1 |
| Arizona Cardinals (9-5) | 9-4-1 | P1 | 7-7 | O1 |
| Miami Dolphins (8-6) | 9-5 | W5 | 6-7-1 | U1 |
| Carolina Panthers (10-4) | 8-5-1 | P1 | 4-9-1 | O1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) | 8-5-1 | L1 | 8-6 | O2 |
| San Diego Chargers (7-7) | 8-5-1 | W2 | 6-8 | U1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) | 8-6 | W2 | 6-8 | O4 |
| Denver Broncos (11-3) | 8-6 | L1 | 11-3 | U1 |
| Dallas Cowboys (7-7) | 8-6 | L3 | 8-5-1 | O3 |
| Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) | 8-6 | W4 | 10-3-1 | O2 |
| Oakland Raiders (4-10) | 8-6 | L2 | 7-6-1 | O3 |
| Tennessee Titans (5-9) | 6-5-3 | P1 | 9-4-1 | O2 |
| Indianapolis Colts (9-5) | 7-6-1 | W1 | 8-6 | U1 |
| New York Jets (6-8) | 7-6-1 | P1 | 8-5-1 | O2 |
| Baltimore Ravens (7-6) | 6-6-1 | L2 | 6-7 | O2 |
| New Orleans Saints (10-4) | 7-7 | L1 | 4-9-1 | U5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) | 7-7 | L1 | 8-6 | O2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) | 7-7 | W1 | 7-7 | O3 |
| Buffalo Bills (5-9) | 7-7 | W1 | 8-5-1 | O1 |
| Detroit Lions (7-6) | 6-7 | L1 | 8-5 | O2 |
| New England Patriots (10-4) | 6-8 | L3 | 7-7 | U1 |
| St. Louis Rams (6-8) | 6-8 | W1 | 9-5 | U3 |
| Cleveland Browns (4-10) | 6-8 | L1 | 9-5 | O3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) | 6-8 | L1 | 7-7 | O1 |
| Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) | 5-9 | W1 | 7-7 | O1 |
| New York Giants (5-9) | 5-9 | L2 | 6-7-1 | U1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) | 5-9 | L1 | 9-5 | O3 |
| Atlanta Falcons (4-10) | 5-9 | L1 | 8-6 | O1 |
| Chicago Bears (8-6) | 4-8-2 | W2 | 10-4 | O2 |
| Washington Redskins (3-11) | 4-10 | W1 | 8-6 | O2 |
| Houston Texans (2-12) | 3-11 | L2 | 9-5 | U1 |
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As per usual, around 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, the LVH put up its Week 16 openers, including those involving teams still playing on Sunday and Monday night. And I know I'm sounding like a broken record (for those old enough to know what that expression even means), but the only game left off the betting board was again involving the Green Bay Packers, as oddsmakers wait to see whether Aaron Rodgers will finally be cleared to play.
[h=3]Early Week 16 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
Dolphins minus-3 (even) at Bills: There are no more Thursday games this season, so this tops the Sunday card. While this also opened at 3 at the Wynn and William Hill books in Vegas, most offshore books went with Dolphins minus-2.5. This could waver back and forth between the two lines, but I'd expect the 3 to win out after the Dolphins' win over the Patriots.
Saints at Panthers minus-3: The advance line at the LVH last week was Panthers minus-2.5, so we saw the adjustment to 3 at the LVH and most other books after the Panthers' win over the Jets and the Saints' road loss at St. Louis. However, the Wynn went with minus-3.5 (even money) and William Hill went from minus-3 to minus-3.5 (minus-120), so we could see 3.5 end up as the more prominent number.<!-- begin inline 3 --> [h=4]Week 16 Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Dolphins -3 EV
Bills
Saints
Panthers -3
Cowboys -3
Redskins
Buccaneers
Rams -4
Bears
Eagles -3.5
Browns
Jets -3
Colts
Chiefs -5
Vikings
Bengals -8.5
Broncos -10.5
Texans
Titans -5
Jaguars
Cardinals
Seahawks -10
Giants
Lions -9.5
Raiders
Chargers -10
Steelers
Packers OFF
Patriots
Ravens -1.5
Falcons (Monday)
49ers -13
<!-- end inline 3 -->Cowboys minus-3 at Redskins: The advance line was Cowboys minus-4, but the Redskins' showing new life in their spread-covering loss at Atlanta coupled with the Cowboys' collapse against the Packers caused this to be adjusted to minus-3 at the LVH and minus-2.5 offshore. It could waver between the two numbers, though it's more likely to end up on 3.
Buccaneers at Rams minus-4: The advance line was Rams minus-3 and was reopened at minus-4 after their home upset of the Saints, while the Bucs were blown out by the 49ers. It opened as high as 5.5 offshore, but by late Sunday night it had been bet up to 4.5 at LVH and it looks like it should settle right around there.
Bears at Eagles minus-3.5: This game was moved to Sunday night. The advance line was Eagles minus-6, but was reopened at 3.5 after their loss to the Vikings and the Bears' win over the Browns. The CRIS offshore book opened at 4 but was bet down, as 3.5 looks like the right number.
Browns at Jets minus-3: The LVH, which has this at minus-3 (even) last week, reopened at minus-3 while offshores opened at pick 'em and minus-1. The LVH was bet down to 2.5 and it looks like this will stay in that area, under a field goal.
Colts at Chiefs minus-5: This was minus-5.5 last week and reopened by the LVH at 5, but offshores as well as the Wynn and William Hill in Vegas opened at 6.5 after both teams' blowout wins. The line was bet up to 6 at the LVH, and it looks like that's where the market will settle.
Vikings at Bengals minus-8.5: The advance line on this game was Bengals minus-9.5 and reopened at 8.5 after the Vikings' upset of the Eagles. But this was before the Bengals' 30-20 loss to the Steelers on Sunday night, so we'll see if it's adjusted further down -- though the line should end up at least a touchdown.
Broncos minus-10.5 at Texans: This was 10.5 last week before the Broncos' loss to the Chargers on Thursday night, and the LVH kept it at 10.5 on Sunday afternoon after the Texans were blown out by the Colts. CRIS adjusted it to 9.5 but was bet up to 10, so it looks like it'll settle at 10 or 10.5.
Titans minus-5 at Jaguars: The advance line was minus-3 but bumped up to 5 at the LVH on Sunday (and offshore at 5.5) after both teams lost. This will likely be the game with the lowest betting handle and it looks like it'll stay in that dead area around 5.
Cardinals at Seahawks minus-10: This was at minus-10.5 last week at the LVH, but even with the Seahawks' shutout of the Giants, it was adjusted down to 10 at the LVH and 9.5 offshore. I wouldn't be surprised to see it settle right at 10.
Giants at Lions minus-9.5: This was at minus-7.5 last week at the LVH and reopened at 9.5 after the Giants' 23-0 loss to the Seahawks. Detroit's Monday night game against the Ravens will have an impact on where it goes from there.
Raiders at Chargers minus-10: The advance line at the LVH last week was Chargers minus-7.5, but after their upset of the Broncos and the Raiders' loss to the Chiefs, it was adjusted to 10. CRIS opened at 7.5 and was bet up to 10, but I think that'll be the peak, so if you like the Raiders, I'd say to take the plus-10 now.
Steelers at Packers OFF: As stated in the "Off-the-board report" above, this is the only game the LVH kept off the board due to Rodgers' uncertain status. If Rodgers is cleared to play, the Packers could be favored by close to a touchdown; if not, it should be around pick 'em.
Patriots at Ravens minus-1.5: This was pick 'em last week and adjusted to Ravens minus-1.5 at the LVH after the Patriots' loss to the Dolphins. We'll see how Baltimore's Monday night game affects the line.
Falcons at 49ers minus-13 (Monday): The advance line last week was minus-11 and adjusted to 13 after the 49ers' more impressive win on Sunday. CRIS opened minus-10.5 and William Hill went with 12.5, but as of early Monday morning it looks like 13 will be the number.
So there's the opening look at the Week 16 lines. Join us Thursday (moved up from its previous Friday spot) for our "Tuley's Take" column as we look at how the public and wiseguys view this weekend's action and I give my "take" on each game after the lines have settled.
