Service Plays Saturday 12/21/13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Fresno State vs. USC

The Trojans bring a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 bowl games against a Fresno State team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 bowl appearances. USC is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Trojans favored by 21. Dunkel Pick: USC (-6). Here are all of this year's bowl games:

Steve Fezzik

Triple Dime CFB Bowl Game of the Year

Fresno State +7

added:
Under 53.5 SDS Buff

H&H Sports

CFB Bowl Plays Double Dimes

Colorado State
Fresno State

Dave Essler

CFB Side - Saturday, Dec 21 2013 2:00PM
double-dime bet
201 Colorado St.

Las Vegas Bowl: What bettors need to know

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Southern California Trojans (-6, 63)

ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Fresno State had its BCS hopes dashed with a loss in its final regular-season game, but motivation shouldn’t be an issue when the Bulldogs face USC in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 21. "Any time Fresno State gets a chance to play against BCS teams like USC we get up for it and our fan base gets up for it," coach Tim DeRuyter said. The Bulldogs are led by quarterback Derek Carr, who has passed for a nation-leading 4,866 yards with 48 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

2. USC looks to finish on a high note while playing for its third coach this season. Offensive coordinator Clay Helton will lead the Trojans in Las Vegas before new coach Steve Sarkisian takes over next season.

3. Fresno State defeated the Trojans 24-7 in the 1992 Freedom Bowl in Anaheim, Calif., and USC escaped with a thrilling 50-42 victory on Nov. 19, 2005 in Los Angeles. The teams are scheduled to open the 2014 season against each other in Los Angeles on Aug. 30.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: USC has been bouncing back-and-fourth between -6 and -6.5. They currently sit at -6. The total opened at 62 an has been bet up to 63.

WEATHER: It will be a partly cloudy day with temperatures in the mid 50s.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (11-1, 5-7 ATS): The Bulldogs boast the top-ranked passing and fifth-ranked scoring offense in the country, but allowed 736 total yards in a 62-52 loss at San Jose State and have struggled mightily against the pass. USC receivers Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor should thrive against the Bulldogs’ much-maligned secondary, which could receive a boost if cornerback L.J. Jones returns after missing the last five games with a knee injury. Carr’s favorite target is star wideout Davante Adams, who has 122 catches for 1,645 yards and 23 touchdowns.

ABOUT USC (9-4, 6-7 ATS): The Trojans went 6-2 with impressive wins against Arizona and Stanford under interim coach Ed Orgeron, who was replaced after a 35-14 loss to rival UCLA in the regular-season finale. The Pac-12’s second-ranked scoring defense figures to be tested by the explosive Bulldogs, and cornerback Josh Shaw’s matchup against the dynamic Adams should be worth the price of admission. The Trojans can’t match the Bulldogs’ offensive firepower, but quarterback Cody Kessler has improved after a shaky start.

TRENDS:

* Fresno State is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.
* USC is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
* Over is 8-2 in Fresno's States last 10 games versus the Pac-12.
* Under is 7-0 in USC's last seven games in December.

New Mexico Bowl: What bettors need to know

Washington State Cougars vs. Colorado State Rams (+4.5, 65.5)

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Washington State plays its first bowl game since 2003 when it meets Colorado State in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque on Dec. 21 - the first of 35 postseason contests culminating with the national championship game Jan. 6. While the Cougars will go bowling for the first time in 10 years, it has been five since the Rams defeated Fresno State 40-35 in the 2008 New Mexico Bowl. Washington State and Colorado State will meet for the first time in what could be a high-scoring contest.

2. Colorado State sophomore Kapri Bibbs rushed for 1,572 yards and 28 touchdowns this season, including back-to-back games of 312 and 291 yards. Bibbs gained only 54 and 79 yards, respectively, in the last two contests, but scored three touchdowns in a 58-13 victory over Air Force on Nov. 30 which made the Rams bowl eligible. The first-year player could add another big-yardage game to his resume, though, as Washington State yields 184 rushing yards per game - 84th in the nation.

3. The Cougars' one-dimensional offense, led by junior quarterback Connor Halliday, is fourth in the nation in passing at 364.5 yards per game, but last in rushing at 58.7. The Rams yield an average of 265.4 passing yards - 109th among the 123 FBS schools in the nation - but apply decent pressure with 27 sacks this season.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Colorado State as 3.5-point dogs and currently sit at +4.5. The total opened at 65 and has moved up slightly to 65.5.

WEATHER: There is a 22 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (6-6, 9-3 ATS): The Cougars were 4-5 with three games left on their schedule, but consecutive victories over Arizona and Utah made them bowl eligible before they finished the regular season with a 27-17 loss to Washington. Halliday (62.8 completion rate, 28 touchdowns, 21 interceptions) attempts 54 passes per game with sophomore Gabe Marks (team highs of 69 catches and 770 yards) his favorite target. “Every bowl I’ve been to is a great experience,” said second-year Cougars coach Mike Leach, whose team finished fifth in the six-team North Division of the Pac-12. “I couldn’t be more excited to go.”

ABOUT COLORADO STATE (7-6, 9-4 ATS): "This is an exciting day not only for our team and our program, but for fans of Colorado State who have waited five years for the chance to go back to a bowl game," said coach Jim McElwain, who also turned a program around in his second year. Junior quarterback Garrett Grayson (62.2 completion rate, 21 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) has managed the offense well with freshman Rashard Higgins (64 catches, 795 yards, six touchdowns) the leading receiver. The Rams, who lost four of their first six games, finished third in the six-team Mountain Division of the MWC.

TRENDS:

* Washington State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Colorado State is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Washington State's last four games versus the MWC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Colorado State's last seven games versus the Pac-12.

TEXAS Sports Wire 5 * New Orleans Bowl TULANE

Phil Steele Inside the PressBox Bowl Picks:

WASHINGTON ST 37 COLORADO ST 31

USC 36 FRESNO ST 30

SAN DIEGO ST 27 BUFFALO 24

BEST BET TULANE 27 LOUISIANA 20

Football Jesus Bowl Pick Text: Buffalo+ pts

CKO
11 BUFFALO over San Diego State Late Score Forecast:BUFFALO 34 - San Diego State 21(Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)(Saturday, December 21)


10 WASHINGTON ST. over Colorado St.
Late Score Forecast:WASHINGTON ST. 45 - Colorado St. 31(New Mexico Bowl)(Saturday, December 21))


10 FRESNO STATE over Southern Cal Late Score Forecast:FRESNO STATE 31 - Southern Cal 28(Las Vegas Bowl)(Saturday, December 21)

Playbook
Upset Game of the week
NEW MEXICO BOWL University Stadium • Albuquerque, NM
Colorado St over Washington St by 6


LAS VEGAS BOWL Sam Boyd Stadium • Las Vegas, NV
Usc over Fresno St by 10


NEW ORLEANS BOWL Mercedes-Benz Superdome • New Orleans, LA
TULANE over La-Lafayette by 4


IDAHO POTATO BOWL Bronco Stadium • Boise, ID
San Diego St over Buffalo by 3

Winning Points
Saturday, December 21
NEW MEXICO BOWL(Albuquerque, NM)
Washington State over Colorado State by 7


LAS VEGAS BOWL
(Las Vegas, NV)
USC over Fresno State by 8


FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL (Boise, ID)
Buffalo over San Diego State by 3


NEW ORLEANS BOWL (New Orleans, LA)
Tulane* over UL-Lafayette by 2

Sports Reporter
NEW MEXICO BOWL University Stadium – Alburquerque, NM (FieldTurf)
BEST BET
WASHINGTON STATE over COLORADO STATE by 16


LAS VEGAS BOWL Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV (DuraPlay -- artificial)
SOUTHERN CAL over FRESNO STATE by 8


FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL Bronco Stadium – Boise, ID (Blue FieldTurf)
SAN DIEGO STATE over BUFFALO by 3


NEW ORLEANS BOWL Superdome – New Orleans, LA (Ubu Turf -- artificial)
TULANE over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 3

Power Sweep
FORECAST: Wash St over Colorado St
POWER SWEEP RATING: 1

FORECAST: OVER USC/Fresno St
POWER SWEEP RATING: 1

FORECAST: San Diego St over Buffalo
POWER SWEEP RATING: 2

FORECAST: TULANE over Louisiana
POWER SWEEP RATING: 3
FORECAST: OVER USC/Fresno St
POWER SWEEP
RATING: 1

Power Plays
1* FRESNO St 31 (+) USC 34


4.5* TULANE 27 (if -2.5 or less) LOUISIANA 16

Nelly's
NEW MEXICO BOWL University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico Washington State (-4½) Colorado State (65) 1:00 PM The Cougars are back in the postseason in the second season for Mike Leach and four conference wins are the most for Washington State since 2006. By most measures Washington State played one of the toughest schedules in the nation while the opposite is true for Colorado State. The Cougars have been a high turnover team on both sides of the ball, getting 27 turnovers but surrendering 32, among the most nationally. Colorado State has great rushing numbers led by Kapri Bibbs who has 28 touchdowns on the season. Colorado rushes for 202 yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry and they will likely be an underdog with a big rushing edge. The Colorado State defense has really struggled against the pass however. Statistically the Rams might appear to have minor edges but the schedule has been a dramatic difference for these teams and the Cougars will be excited to be in a bowl game for the first time in a decade. Leach has plenty of bowl experience with a winning career record in the postseason and there is just not much substance behind the 7-6 record for the Rams. While good rushing teams are attractive underdogs, those rules don’t apply when going against the Leach style of offense. WSU BY 10


LAS VEGAS BOWL Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada Usc (-6) Fresno State (62) 2:30 PM With the coaching carousel at USC there is some instability for USC as Clay Helton leads the team as the interim coach with most of the staff knowing the future is uncertain. USC laid an egg in the bowl game last season with an ugly Sun Bowl performance and this is a talented team that played well down the stretch for the most part. USC has featured one of the best pass defenses in the nation and the Trojans have the ability to shut down the Fresno State passing attack. The Bulldogs had the door open for a BCS spot but they failed late in the season before bouncing back to win the MWC championship. Of the three regular season wins for Fresno State over bowl teams two came in overtime and the other came by a single point. There has been a massive disparity in the schedules between these teams and with the turmoil surrounding the USC program value may be with the Trojans in a favorable venue. Fresno State produced a great record but it appears to be a mirage that could be exposed in the desert. There should be motivation and excitement for USC knowing how poorly things went last season and with the hire of Steve Sarkisian being met positively despite the awkward parting with the well liked Ed Orgeron. USC BY 7


FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho Buffalo (-1) San Diego State (53) 4:30 PM Potentially chilly conditions in Boise should seem to favor the cold weather team in Buffalo as the Bulls make the second ever bowl trip for the program. The per play statistics are pretty similar for these teams overall but Buffalo has featured a dominant pass defense that could cause serious problems for an Aztecs team that is reliant on a somewhat inefficient aerial attack with less than 57 percent completions on the season. San Diego State incredibly had three overtime wins on the season as the Aztecs were a fortunate team. Buffalo had its own good fortune with one of the best turnover margins in the nation at +15. Rocky Long is 0-2 in bowl games since taking over at San Diego State and in his career he is just 1-6 as the postseason has not seemingly been a priority despite an excellent and respected career. This is a veteran Buffalo team that has been building for this bowl opportunity. Both teams are coming off clunker performances in the final games of the regular season but the conditions may favor the Bulls. San Diego State has allowed at least 30 points in five of the last six games. BUFFALO BY 3


NEW ORLEANS BOWL Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana TULANE (NL) UL-Lafayette 8:00 PM The health of Louisiana-Lafayette quarterback Terrance Broadway keeps this line off the board at most outlets with those offering it basically calling it a pick. Broadway is a dynamic player that posted big numbers this season and the Ragin’ Cajuns are not the same team without him. This is a home game for Tulane, in a bowl game for the first time since 2002. Tulane was out-gained by almost 50 yards per game on average this season but a great turnover margin for an opportunistic defense won games. The offense gained just 4.5 yards per play however, compared with a 6.2 mark for UL-Lafayette. Tulane’s defense has been dominant against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per rush and the Wave allowed just 30 points over the final three games of the season. Tulane was a terrible rushing team on offense however and they may not be able to take advantage of a suspect defense for UL-Lafayette in this matchup of Bayou State teams. These teams played in the regular season last year with the Cajuns winning 41-13 but that could motivate the Wave and if Broadway is not 100 percent UL-Lafayette may not look like the same team that mostly dominated the Sun Belt. TULANE BY 7

Saturday's Bowl Action
By Brian Edwards

Las Vegas Bowl

Matchup: Fresno State vs. Southern California
Venue: Sam Boyd Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

As of Friday afternoon, most books had USC (9-4 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 62. Gamblers can back the Bulldogs on the money line for a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210). For first-half bets, USC is favored by 3 ½ with a total of 31 ½.

Fresno St. (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) is in its first underdog situation of the season. Any disappointment of not getting to a BCS bowl was most likely forgotten by the Bulldogs when they saw their name next to that of USC’s. I would expect FSU to play with a chip on its shoulder due to the fact that most of its players were bypassed by the Trojans in the recruiting process.

Fresno St. went unbeaten until suffering a 62-52 loss at San Jose St. on Nov. 29. The Bulldogs recovered the following week to win the Mountain West Conference title game by a 24-17 count over Utah St. They hooked up their betting supporters as 2.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Derek Carr threw for 404 yards and three touchdowns against the Aggies.

Carr has enjoyed a sensational senior campaign and will have NFL scouts galore on hand to watch him in Vegas. He has completed 70.1 percent of his throws for 4,866 yards with a 48/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Carr’s favorite target is Davante Adams, who has hauled in 122 receptions for 1,654 yards and 23 TDs. Josh Harper, who missed the MWC title game with a groin injury, has 79 catches for 1,011 yards and 13 TDs.

USC has hired a new coach in former assistant Steve Sarkisian, but it will be without Ed Orgeron after he led the team to six wins in its last eight games. Oregeron bolted town after not getting the head job. Therefore, you have to wonder what the mindset is for this team going into the postseason. Remember, USC completely no-showed the Sun Bowl last year by losing 21-7 to a seven-loss Ga. Tech squad.

USC had won five consecutive games before getting thumped 35-14 by UCLA in its regular-season finale. Brett Hundley paced the Bruins with 80 rushing yards and a pair of TD scampers. Javorious Allen ran for 123 yards and one TD. Allen, a product of Tallahassee Lincoln High School that has produced the likes of former Florida OT Zach Pillar, former UF defensive end Kevin Carter and former FSU cornerback Antonio Cromartie, has 10 rushing scores in USC’s last five games.

Southern Cal has been a single-digit favorite four times this year, going 2-2 ATS.

USC will be without two starting offensive linemen. OT Aundrey Walker and center Marcus Martin are both out after sustaining knee injuries.

The ‘under’ is 9-4 overall for the Trojans. Meanwhile, totals have been an overall wash for the Bulldogs (6-6).

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Matchup: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Venue: Bronco Stadium
Location: Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

These teams will meet in the Idaho Potato Bowl on the smurf turf in Boise. Buffalo will have to venture across country, but it will be familiar with the cold conditions in Idaho. San Diego St. won’t have to travel as far, but the weather won’t be to its liking.

As of Friday afternoon, most spots had San Diego St. (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) listed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 51.

Before laying an egg in a 45-19 loss at UNLV in its regular-season finale, Rocky Long’s squad had won seven of its eight previous games. The lone defeat during that span came to Fresno State in overtime.

San Diego St. is by RB Adam Muema, who rushed for 1,015 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season. QB Quinn Kaehler threw for 2,796 yards with a 17/9 TD-INT ratio.

Buffalo (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) has one of the nation’s premier players in LB Khalil Mack, who won the Lambert Award for the country’s top linebacker. Mack has 94 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and three interceptions this season. He returned two of those picks for TDs and he has 15 career forced fumbles.

Buffalo produced a seven-game winning streak before dropping two of its last three games. The Bulls lost a 24-7 decision at home to eventual MAC champ Bowling Green in their regular-season finale.

Buffalo QB Joe Licata had a solid season, throwing 2,628 yards with a 21/7 TD-INT ratio. Brandon Oliver ran for a team-high 1,421 yards and 15 TDs.

San Diego St. compiled a 3-1 spread record in four games as a single-digit favorite.

Buffalo went 2-3 ATS in five games as an underdog.

ESPN will have the telecast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Three SEC quarterbacks won’t play in the postseason – Georgia’s Aaron Murray, LSU’s Zach Mettenberger and Vandy’s Austyn Carta-Samuels.

In Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, Washington St. is favored by 5 ½ vs. Colorado St. The ‘over’ is 8-3 for the Rams, who have gone 3-2 ATS in five games as underdogs.

Tulane is favored by 1 ½ or two vs. UL-Lafayette in Saturday night’s New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. The Ragin’ Cajuns will most likely be without starting QB Terrance Broadway, who has an injured wrist. Without Broadway, UL-Lafayette got smashed 30-8 at South Alabama in its regular-season finale.

Tulane has covered the number at a 7-1 clip in its last eight games. On the flip side, the Ragin’ Cajuns are in the midst of a 0-5 ATS slide.

POINTWISE

COLLEGIATE
BASKETBALL PROPHECY

KEY RELEASES
OREGON over Byu (Sat) RATING: 1
ST BONAVENTURE over Niagara (Sat) RATING: 3

(12:00) KANSAS 76 - Georgetown 69 (ESPN) _____ _____

(12:00) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 80 - East Carolina 72 _____ _____

(12:00) TCU 69 - Tulsa 58 _____ _____

(1:00) OAKLAND 64 - Eastern Michigan 56 _____ _____

(2:00) CINCINNATI 77 - Middle Tennessee State 65 _____ _____

(2:00) UNC-WILMINGTON 72 - Old Dominion 71 _____ _____

(2:00) ST JOHNS 72 - Youngstown State 69 _____ _____

(2:00) TOLEDO 74 - Cleveland State 73 _____ _____

(2:00) FLORIDA ST 76 - Massachusetts 73 (Sunrise, Fla) _____ _____

(3:00) Butler 69 - EVANSVILLE 64 _____ _____

(3:00) COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 71 - Kent State 68 _____ _____

(3:30) Gonzaga 70 - KANSAS ST 57 (ESPN2) (Wichita) _____ _____

(4:00) VIRGINIA 72 - Northern Iowa 65 _____ _____

(4:00) PITTSBURGH 79 - Cal-Poly Slo 64 _____ _____

(4:00) TEXAS 68 - Michigan State 63 (CBS) _____ _____

(4:00) VANDERBILT 77 - Georgia Tech 71 _____ _____

(4:30) FLORIDA 83 - Fresno State 68 (FSN) (Sunrise, Fla) _____ _____

(4:30) Rice 73 - Houston 70 (Toyota Center) _____ _____

(5:00) LSU 78 - Uab 71 _____ _____

(5:30) Va Commonwealth 64 - Va Tech 58 (Richmond Col) _____ _____

(5:30) Missouri 79 - Illinois 72 (ESPN2) (St Louis) _____ _____

(5:30) CAL-DAVIS 63 - Air Force 60 _____ _____

(6:00) Louisville 76 - FLA INTERNATIONAL 58 (FOX1) _____ _____

(6:30) ARIZONA STATE 72 - Texas Tech 69 _____ _____

(7:00) TEXAS A&M 67 - Oklahoma 66 (ESPNU) (Houston) _____ _____

(7:00) ALABAMA 73 - Xavier 72 _____ _____

(7:00) MARSHALL 70 - Arkansas State 58 _____ _____

(7:30) Ohio St 84 - No Dame 67 (ESPN2) (Mad Sq Grdn) _____ _____

(8:00) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 66 - Ball State 61 _____ _____

(8:00) ARKANSAS 75 - South Alabama 68 (Little Rock) _____ _____

(8:30) Utep 71 - WASHINGTON STATE 65 _____ _____

(8:30) Michigan 73 - Stanford 70 (FOX1) (Brooklyn, NY) _____ _____

(9:00) Nw Mexico 78 - Marquette 71 (ESPNU) (Las Vegas) _____ _____

(10:30) OREGON 82 - Oklahoma State 68 _____ _____

(11:30) Okla St 79 - Colorado 74 (ESPN2) (Las Vegas) _____ _____

BVI TROPICAL SHOOTOUT PROBABLE FINAL
(5:30) Southern Mississippi 67 - Arkansas-Little Rock 58 _____ _____

TULANE CLASSIC @ New Orleans, Louisiana
(4:00) TULANE 74 - Alabama State 64 _____ _____
(6:30) Wisconsin-Milwaukee 77 - Northeastern 70 _____ _____

BASKETBALL TRAVELERS CLASSIC @ Logan, Utah
(7:30) Cal-Santa Barbara 72 - Western Illinois 67 _____ _____
(10:00) UTAH STATE 81 - Troy 62 _____ _____

ADDED GAMES
(12:00) KENTUCKY 90 - Belmont 78 _____ _____
(2:00) MONMOUTH 76 - Fordham 75 _____ _____
(2:00) WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY 73 - Fairfield 63 _____ _____
(2:00) WESTERN KENTUCKY 74 - Murray State 69 _____ _____
(2:00) IPFW 68 - Eastern Illinois 55 _____ _____
(2:00) GEORGIA 79 - Western Carolina 67 _____ _____
(2:00) WAKE FOREST 85 - UNC-Greensboro 68 _____ _____

(3:00) MANHATTAN 74 - Buffalo 63 (Barclays Center)
(3:30) INDIANA STATE 77 - Iupui 64 _____ _____
(4:00) VILLANOVA 83 - Rider 59 (FOX1) _____ _____
(4:00) DENVER 68 - Cal-Irvine 58 _____ _____
(7:00) St Bonaventure 92 - NIAGARA 84 _____ _____
(5:00) SAN DIEGO 70 - Southern Utah 55 _____ _____
(5:00) NORTH CAROLINA 81 - Davidson 64 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(5:00) NORTH DAKOTA 76 - North Dakota State 73 _____ _____
(6:00) CAL-FULLERTON 69 - Sacramento State 64 _____ _____

(8:00) NORTH DAKOTA STATE 72 - Towson 62 _____ _____
(8:00) MEMPHIS 83 - SE Missouri State 68 _____ _____
(8:00) TENNESSEE STATE 62 - Miami-Ohio 61 _____ _____
(8:30) NEBRASKA 87 - The Citadel 63 _____ _____

BEST BETS
CLEVELAND STATE
BUTLER
TEXAS
MISSOURI
XAVIER,
OREGON (1)
ST. BONAVENTURE (3)

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Kansas* over Georgetown by 11
The Jayhawks should have fun collapsing on Georgetown center Josh Smith, then
watching the Hoyas guards clang three-pointers.
KANSAS, 79-68.

North Carolina State* over East Carolina by 3
ECU head coach Jeff Lebo is a North Carolina grad (and former player, of course).
He’ll preach hatred of Wolfpack and all that, and hope that his players – whose school
is only 35 miles away and whose football team already drubbed NC State’s football
team -- feel the hate and all that. ECU is shooting a lot better from the outside than
NC State.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE, 74-71.

TCU* over Tulsa by 5
Aw, no fair, these guys played already in Alaska, we won it online for Winning Points
Online members with **PREFERRED, TCU, keying on their injury returnee forward
Amric Fields, who is now an injured-and-out guy again. No need to reach back
into the pocket for hard-earned money and get involved again.
TCU, 58-53.

***BEST BET
Oakland* over Eastern Michigan by 16
If you schedule like Oakland’s Greg Kampe has – we’ve outlined it recently but here
it is again: at North Carolina, at UCLA, at Cal, at Gonzaga, at Indiana, at Michigan
State -- then you’d darn better be ready to kick some in-state butt in a true home gameagainst an opponent that struggles to put the ball in the basket and that recently
allowed a ridiculous run on their home floor to up-tempo UMass in a double-digit
defeat.
OAKLAND, 79-63.

Cincinnati* over Middle Tennessee St. by 8

Old Dominion over NC Wilmington* by 2

St. John’s* over Youngstown State by 12
Redmen (Ha! Redmen!) are doing a very good defensive job but YSU has plenty of
guys who can shoot the three and chip away in a 3-for-2 game vs. Lavin’s bricklaying
jump shooters. However, the road dog will get killed on the boards for put-backs, and
through the lane. For SJU, what wasn’t there against Syracuse will be there against
these Penguins.
ST. JOHN’S, 82-70.

Toledo* over Cleveland State by 23
Toledo is scoring 20 more ppg than they did last season, and they were 9-0 entering
the week, including three true road wins. Cleveland State is coming off a soft home
stretch…perhaps too soft.
TOLEDO, 81-58.

Massachusetts over Florida State by 1 (at Sunrise, FL)
Go, Chazz, go. Game is not in Talahassee. Sunrise is about as far away from Talahassee as you can be and still be in Florida.
MASSACHUSETTS, 81-80.

Butler over Evansville* by 8
Evansville scored only 47 points against Indiana recently, so don’t expect much more
vs. a bunch that always brings it on D.
BUTLER, 67-59.

***BEST BET
Kent State over College of Charleston* by 12
It will have been 17 days since Kent State last played a game. They have to do it on
the road against this stranger, when regional rival Cleveland State is on deck. CofC
will have had three games in the span during which Kent was idle. Sounds like a slamdunk for the home team, right? Except for the fact that CofC is averaging a mere 63 ppg and defense has never been a staple of the program, whose head coach Doug
(Yawn!) Wojcik is in his second season, wading through the post-Cremins/current-self
mess and looking ahead to a new conference (Colonial) after they were in the
Southern Conference in his first year.
KENT STATE, 71-59.

Gonzaga over Kansas State by 9 (at Wichita, KS)
This should be like a replay of Gonzaga’s win at offensively challenged West Virginia,
except in the replay, the ‘Zags don’t have to sweat as much.
GONZAGA, 80-71.

Virginia* over Northern Iowa by 12
UNI handled VCU pressure at home. Can they handle Virginia’s halfcourt D on the
road? It’s like a polar opposite situation!
VIRGINIA, 62-50.

Pittsburgh* over Cal Poly-SLO by 22
Pitt is really challenging themselves. First Loyola Marymount from 3,000 miles away,
now another SoCal program with even less of a hoops pedigree from the same area.
Sheesh. Maybe they’ll blow them away if the Pitt coaches don’t have old friends on
Cal Poly.
PITTSBURGH, 79-57.

**PREFERRED
Texas* over Michigan State by 7
Revenge game for a Texas team that lost 67-56 in East Lansing last season, when current leading scorer Jonathan Holmes was limited to 19 minutes with foul troubles and current fifth-leading (but still double-digit!) scorer Cameron Ridley was a wee freshman center getting schooled. People wanted to hand Michigan State the national
championship a few weeks ago but they still have to play a lot of games and lose some
in order to get there, if they get there, which we don’t have to worry about right now.
TEXAS, 78-71.

Vanderbilt* over Georgia Tech by 7

Florida over Fresno State by 25 (at Sunrise, FL)
Fresno has a seven-man rotation but the last two guys are averaging only 5 ppg. Foul
trouble, fatigue, and a late fade loom.
FLORIDA, 84-59.

Houston over Rice by 4 (at Toyota Center)
Houston took two out of three in this rivalry last season.
HOUSTON, 75-71.

LSU* over UAB by 11
LSU is right behind #1-ranked rebounding team UAB on the boards. Those extra
UAB shots – and set defenses -- won’t be there as often as they’ve been.
LSU, 75-64.

VCU* over Virginia Tech by 18 (at Richmond Coliseum)
VCU kids love putting it to ACC players who the ACC schools chose over them.
When they can, of course, and in Va. Tech’s current shape, they probably can.
VCU, 81-63.

Missouri over Illinois by 5 (at St. Louis, MO)
“We’ve had trouble finishing games,” said Illinois head coach John Groce recently.
Alrighty, then. As long as this game has an ending…
MISSOURI, 74-69.

Air Force over Cal Davis* by 4

Louisville over Florida International* by 17

Arizona State* over Texas Tech by 19
Smokin’ Herb picked good seasons to schedule home-and-home vs. Texas Tech: 77-62
win at Tech in last year’s horrible Tech year; now a return engagement on their home
floor in Tubby Smith’s sort-through-the-rubble, break-it-all-down-before-building-itback-up-again first season as Red Raiders’ head coach.
ARIZONA STATE, 81-62.

Oklahoma over Texas A&M by 10 (at Houston, TX)
Sooners have played the tougher slate to date.
OKLAHOMA, 75-65.

Alabama* over Xavier by 8
Can easily foresee Xavier playing the role of bricklaying opponent that Cincinnati
recently played against them.
ALABAMA, 60-52.

Arkansas State over Marshall* by 2
There should be enough tape of Marshall’s 6’9” outside-shot loving leading scorer
Elijah Pittman hoisting treys, for opponents to begin game-planning for and around
it. Actually, that process has already begun, with four straight losses.
ARKANSAS STATE, 76-74

***BEST BET
Ohio State over Notre Dame by 21 (Madison Sq. Garden, NY)
‘Oh, Notre Dame covered against Iowa on the road, and they beat Indiana on a neutral
floor! Notre Dame owns the Big Ten! Give me Notre Dame!’ Whoever wants
Notre Dame can have Notre Dame. Ohio State plays defense on a different level than
those other two sides. Whichever big stiffs Irish head coach Mike Brey wants to rotate
around the forward spots won’t do much damage on either end of the floor, and Aaron
Craft can contain Jerian Grant, who has been carrying the Irish offense. Grant, Pat
Connaughton and Eric Atkins sport nice offensive scoring averages but they’ve come
in more minutes than your typical college player tends to play because they desperately have needed them on the floor to put away, or lose, to lesser.
OHIO STATE, 70-49.

Southern Illinois* over Ball State by 9

Arkansas* over South Alabama by 16 (at Little Rock)

Washington State* over UTEP by 4

Michigan over Stanford by 10 (at Brooklyn, NY)
Stanford is getting out-coached in this match-up as we speak.
MICHIGAN, 77-67.

New Mexico over Marquette by 3 (at Las Vegas, NV)
Marquette, against decent defensive foes? No, thanks.
NEW MEXICO, 65-62.

***BEST BET
Oregon* over BYU by 22
This should be like BYU at UMass (a ***BEST BET winner on UMass) all over again,
except that Oregon is deeper than UMass, better-coached, and has two guards who
played a lot last season returning to action from a nine-game suspension, to help make
an already good team better. BYU fancies itself as an up-tempo team. Ha-ha. Scoring
100 at Stanford early-on was the fake-out. Then they get into other road games against squads like UMass and Oregon and the scoreboard starts to separate, and that quote from head coach Rose that bordered on “over-scheduling” looms large.
OREGON,102-80.

Oklahoma State over Colorado by 9 (at Las Vegas, NV)

Northeastern over Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 1 (at New Orleans, LA)

Utah State* over Troy by 21
Phil Cunningham gets schooled. Third game in three nights for both, but Troy is a
lousy hoops program with a hack coach in his first season, playing on the home floor
of a perennial post-season team.
UTAH STATE, 78-56