Service Plays Sunday 12/22/13

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Today's NFL Picks

Chicago at Philadelphia

The Eagles host a Chicago team that is coming off a 38-31 win over Cleveland and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

Sports Insights

TOP PLAYS

102 Miami/Buffalo under 43: Buffalo has played over in 9 of 14 including 23-21 game earlier this season against Miami. Buffalo pass defense is really good. And Miami’s defense has advantage over the Buffalo pass game. The YPP portion of the model has this in the mid-30’s.

116 Minnesota/Cincinnati under 47.5: Favorable math and some trends that point to Bengals bouncing back after a couple bad defensive showings. Probably going to be rainy and windy here too.

122 Arizona/Seattle under 43: Football Outsiders has these two as the best defenses in the league. Should be a lot of running the ball the ball here and less than 125 plays, yet the total is lined barely below league average.

129 New England +2.5 over Baltimore: Road underdog off road loss angle. Belichik off loss. Ravens short week off close win. Math says it’s off.

Leans: 103 New Orleans +3 over Carolina, 118 Houston +10 over Denver, 124 NY Giants/Detroit under 48.5, 130 New England/Baltimore under 44

From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

NEW ORLEANS (103) AT CAROLINA (104)
Latest Line: Carolina -3.0; Total: 46.0

NFC South co-leaders will play a huge game on Sunday when the Saints visit the Panthers. New Orleans fell 27-16 in St. Louis last week, dropping the club to 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) in its past five road games. Carolina took out the Jets 30-20 last week to mark its sixth straight home win (5-0-1 ATS). But when these clubs met two weeks ago at the Superdome, the Saints rolled to a 31-13 rout as QB Drew Brees threw 4 TD passes, improving his record in this series to 6-2 since 2009. But Panthers QB Cam Newton piled up 304 total yards and 2 TD in leading his team to a 35-27 victory in last year's meeting in Carolina.
Forecaster: Carolina 22, New Orleans 19

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 16:

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 43)

Cowboys’ third-down offense vs. Redskins’ third-down defense

The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot – again – with another late-game collapse versus the Packers last weekend. Dallas’ issues are stacked to the roof of AT&T Stadium but perhaps the most glaring problem is its inability to convert on third down. The Cowboys have converted just 35.22 percent of their third downs this season and went a dismal 2-for-9 on third down in the loss to Green Bay. Quick three-and-outs are killing an already weak defense, and the offense hasn’t been able to pick up that slack.

Washington is maybe the only other team in the NFC with more internal issues than the Cowboys at this point. However, the Redskins proved they're going to fight to the finish with a close loss to Atlanta Sunday. The defense isn’t where it was last season but Washington is still doing a good job ushering teams off the field on third down. The Redskins have limited foes to a 34.71 percent success rate on third down and have been even stingier in recent outings, dropping that number to 29.73 percent over the last three games.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

Colts’ rushing defense vs. Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles

We’re usually a little more subtle when it comes to our weekly mismatches but after the day Charles had last week, the Chiefs’ multifaceted RB deserves respect. Charles threw a wrench in many fantasy football playoff matchups with his five-touchdown performance versus the Raiders. He caught all eight passes thrown his way for 195 yards and tacked on an additional 20 yards on the ground.

Charles has history with the Colts, racking up 226 yards rushing and a score in last year’s loss to Indianapolis. The Colts defense is among the worst at stopping the run - 128.9 yards against per game – and has been exposed by pass-catching backs all season. Most recently, Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard had a big day with 99 yards on the ground and another 49 through the air versus the Colts in Week 14.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)

Giants’ short secondary vs. Lions’ towering targets

New York’s secondary is in shambles with key corners and safeties causing traffic jams in the trainer’s room. The Giants’ two somewhat healthy CBs, Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride, have a tall task ahead of them Sunday. Amukamara and McBride stand just 6-foot and 5-foot-9 respectively and will try to slow down a Detroit receiving corps that could double as an NBA frontcourt.

Forget about Calvin Johnson and what his freakish 6-foot-5 frame can do. The Lions also boast beanpoles in 6-foot WR Nate Burleson, 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew and 6-foot-7 TE Joseph Fauria. New York has record only 29 sacks on the season and will give Matt Stafford plenty of time to toss jump balls to his towering targets Sunday afternoon. Add “Megatron” to the mix, who has a total of 191 yards and two TDs in two games versus N.Y., and it makes New York's nickname - The Giants - seem a bit misleading.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 56)

Bears’ big passing plays vs. Eagles’ bending to big plays

It doesn’t matter who’s under center for Chicago – Jay Cutler or Josh McCown – the Bears’ passing attack is doing big things. Over the past three games, Chicago has averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt – tops in the NFL during that span. Cutler let it rip for 265 yards and three TDs in his return under center versus Cleveland last weekend, picking up a healthy 11.9 yards per pass completion, including a 45-yard TD strike to Alshon Jeffery.

The Eagles got knocked on their ass in Minnesota last Sunday, allowing Vikings QB Matt Cassel to pass for 382 yards and two touchdowns. The pass defense has been slipping recently, hemorrhaging big gains and dropping to a league-worst 291.6 yards passing allowed per game. Philadelphia’s opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempts and 13 yards per completion over the last three contests. Poor tackling has led to an average of 146.6 yards allowed after the catch – fourth worst in the NFL.

NFL Top 4: Potential playoff spoilers to watch out for
By JASON LOGAN

When you’re at the bottom of the conference standings at this point in the NFL season, there are two options: 1. Tank your remaining games and hope for a high draft pick. Or 2. Play out the remaining schedule and hope you can screw over someone’s postseason plans.

These four teams could be siding with the latter in the final weeks of the season. They have matchups with teams in the playoff mix and have shown a fighting spirit, which can be enough to throw a wrench in their opponents’ postseason plotting:

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1 SU, 8-6 ATS)

The Vikings have a taste for spoiling playoff pushes already, knocking off the Eagles this past weekend. Minnesota is fighting tooth and nail down the stretch, going 3-2-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games. Even without RBs Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart, the Vikes keep chugging along with third-stringer Matt Asiata and backup QB Matt Cassel leading the charge. Minnesota can mess up playoff pictures in both conference with games against Cincinnati (Vikings +7.5) and Detroit left on the table.

Buffalo Bills (5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Buffalo has only two wins in its last seven games but is still coming to play each Sunday. The Bills took a win from a turned-around Jaguars squad Sunday and host the Wild Card-chasing Dolphins in the cold at Ralph Wilson (Bills +2.5) this weekend. After that, Buffalo could snuff out the Patriots' push for home field with a finale in Foxborough. Buffalo already has its franchise QB in E.J. Manuel, so tanking is less likely. And, in an example of the Bills’ commitment to the season, WR Stevie Johnson played Sunday despite the sudden death of his mother the day before.

Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS)

The Falcons are a prideful franchise and would love nothing more than to spoil the 49ers’ playoff chances after being edged by San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game last January. Atlanta visits the Bay Area as a 13-point underdog in the final Monday Night Football of the season. The Falcons held on for a win over Washington in Week 15 and are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four outings. Coach Mike Smith is still tinkering with his lineups each week, looking to improve one game to the next. After facing the Niners, Atlanta can trip up NFC South rival Carolina in Week 17.

St. Louis Rams (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS)

The Rams proved they’re not a team to be taken lightly with a dominant performance against New Orleans. St. Louis held the Saints to three points through three quarters and exploded for 27 points of its own, without top WR Tavon Austin in the lineup. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites hosting Tampa Bay Sunday but their big game comes in Seattle in Week 17. Depending on if Seattle locks down home field for the playoffs, St. Louis could be treating this challenge as its Super Bowl. The Rams put a scare in the Seahawks, losing 14-9 but covering as 13-point home dogs in Week 8.

NFL line watch: Back Jets now versus terrible Browns
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns (+2) at New York Jets

Does anyone anywhere believe that the Browns have any life at all left in their bodies?

Another season has come and just about gone, and the Browns once again find themselves in familiar territory – with a string of late-season losses (the current tally is five in a row), little interest from the home fans and in firm possession of last place in the AFC North. Merry Christmas, Browns fans.

Now line up for your lumps of coal.

After getting booed off the field by the few remaining fans who had the misfortune of owning tickets to Sunday’s latest loss (38-31, to the Bears), Cleveland players must now lug a 4-10 record with them on the road, where the Brownies are 1-5 this season.

The Jets (5-2 at home this year) still have an outside shot at a wild card berth that could save the jobs of a lot of folks in Jersey, so they should be able to cover the deuce against an unmotivated Browns team.

Spread to wait on

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills

The public is pounding the Dolphins hard after their big victory over the Patriots, with three of every four dollars down backing the Fish. With that much early action on Miami, bettors might be able to hang on until late in the week and see if the number goes to 3.

Miami’s win over New England took place in 84-degree weather against a Patriots team that is only a shadow of what it used to be.

The Bills are 7-7 overall and have yet to be blown out at home this season. And if the temperature is even half of that 84, the Dolphins will be delighted

Miami has three-straight wins and will be looking to snag a wild card playoff spot, but Buffalo also has motivation – if the Bills lose, it would probably mean a sixth straight last-place finish in the AFC East and a huge roster turnover. Advice here is to hang tight and wait for the line to lengthen a bit.

Total to watch

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks(45)

Know this about the Seahawks – they play great defense, but they can also put points on the board at home. The poodle’s offense has put up 34 (vs. New Orleans), 41 (Minnesota) and 27 in its last three home games, so Seattle figures to be able to move the ball, even against a pretty good Cardinal team.

But, but, but ... Arizona QB Carson Palmer suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s victory at Tennessee and is listed as questionable for Seattle.

The Seahawks figure to come hard at Palmer, who has never been known for his work against blitzes. Going into Seattle with a gimpy starting QB or, even worse, a second-stringer, is poison.

Under is the play, even with a moderate number of 45.

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Two weeks. That's all we have left to the regular season. With Week 16 upon us, the playoff picture could be poised to become a little more clear. With that, certain teams across the league will be gung-ho to spoil the playoff aspirations of their division or conference rivals.

We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com about the biggest line moves heading toward the weekend:

New York Giants at Detroit Lions - Open: -10, Move: -9

The Lions appear as if they don't want any piece of the postseason. They currently reside in third place in the NFC North and have dropped four of the last five games - including an 18-16 loss against the Baltimore Ravens Monday night. Because of the terrible football they've been playing, coupled with the short week, bettors have lined up to jump on the road dog in this matchup.

"Since the Lions played on Monday, the line came out on Tuesday and in less than three hours, we got wiseguy play on the dog, and moved a full-point to 9," Perry says. "Many probably look at this team to be hard pressed to beat anyone by double digits. Eli Manning needs to redeem himself off a five INT game, and the Giants seem to somehow play their best whenever hardly anyone gives them a chance."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams - Open: -4.5, Move: -5.5

Following their surprising victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, bettors have backed the Rams and had odds moving early in the week. The luster has fallen off the Bucs' recent winning ways, however. They put together a three-game winning streak earlier before going loss, win, loss over their last three as they head into Week 16.

"Monday morning got sharp bet on the favorite so moved to -5," Perry tells Covers. "Then on Wednesday afternoon, another sharp play on the Rams caused us to move to the current number of 5.5. Mike Glennon will be in for a tough matchup Sunday, no doubt about that."

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

You couldn't ask for a better matchup Sunday. Both teams are 10-4. Both teams want the NFC South crown. But, perhaps nobody across the entire league has played better football than the Panthers. They've won nine of their last 10 games and have pulled through for the bettor as well going 7-2-1 ATS over those 10 games.

"While this game only moved a half-point, it did move off of 3, the most important number when it comes to NFL gambling," said Perry. "This wiseguy play took place on Monday morning. Huge revenge game for Carolina, who are looking to atone for the embarrassing 31-13 loss to New Orleans on Sunday Night Football. This game is much more than revenge for the Panthers, as a victory will give them the inside track to winning the NFC South."

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles - Open: -4, Move: -3

McCown or Cutler under center, it doesn't really matter. The Bears sport a deadly passing attack that features two of the best targets in the league in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. The fact that their lethal aerial assault gets to go up against the Eagles atrocious secondary had sharps all over the road dog after books opened this matchup.

"Sunday night got sharp bet on the Bears, so moved to 3.5 and then another sharp play came on Chicago, so moved to present number of 3," Perry stated. "Philadelphia made Matt Cassel look like Fran Tarkenton last Sunday, as he tossed up 382 passing yards and recorded a rushing TD to boot. Just imagine what Chicago's high powered offense of Forte, Marshall and Jeffery could do to them."

NFL betting Week 16 preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTS INTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 16’s NFL action.

All odds current as of noon ET, Dec. 19.

Betting in Week 16 is a lot like trying to buy the right gift online just in the nick of time to get it under the tree by Christmas morning.

You’re up against a tight deadline with the unpredictability of Week 17 looming and this might up as your last chance to put in some wagers without worrying about teams pulling their starters in the second quarter. This week, playoff spots and jobs are on the line. Next week, you just don’t know what you’re going to get.

Odds on the move

The Denver Broncos were overtaken by the Seattle Seahawks as the Super Bowl favorite again this week. The Seahawks are now +247 to win it all while Denver dropped to +287 following last week’s loss at home to San Diego. That doesn’t mean bettors are going away from the Broncos this week though. Denver opened as a 9.5-point favorite at Houston and has moved all the way up to -11. That line might go even higher with 88 percent of our bets coming in on Denver.

One of the trickier games on the board might be Raiders at Chargers. San Diego still has a chance to make the playoffs, but needs to win out and hope the Ravens and Dolphins lose their last two games. Possible, though probably not likely. Still, the Chargers have moved from -7.5 at the open to -9.5, while the total has jumped from 48 to 50.5. The Raiders have lost four straight, covering the number in just one of those defeats.

In the Monday Nighter, the 49ers are looking to lock down their playoff spot with a home game against the floundering Atlanta Falcons. This sounds like it’s going to be the 49ers’ last game at Candlestick Park and they’ll want to send their fans home happy. San Francisco opened around -10.5 and is now sitting at -12.5.

This week’s most popular bets

Sports Interaction bettors have already put the Dallas Cowboys’ epic collapse against the Green Bay Packers behind them. The Cowboys blew a 26-3 lead to Green Bay in a 37-36 loss but now face a Washington team that’s falling apart at the seams. We’re seeing about 80 percent of our bets coming in on the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are looking to punch their playoff ticket in Buffalo and are up against a Bills team that will be without quarterback EJ Manuel and wide receiver Stevie Johnson. Miami bets currently make up 88 percent of our handle.

Football Jesus Sunday Free pick: EAGLES

Alex Smart

Arizona/Seattle under 45
Jets-1
Jets/Cleveland over 40.5
Chicago/Philly under 56.5
Denver/Houston over 51.5
Miami-2.5
Dallas/Washington over 52.5
New Orleans/Carolina under 46

goodfella

3* buffalo

looking for ness goy kelso 100 unit, thanks

Any Sixth Sense Sports picks?

Anyone have fezzik NFL play he added to his college football package?

Texas Sports Wire 10 * Game of the year OVER The total Dallas/Washington
anyone seen Marl Lawrences 10* NFL GOY yet Thanks & Merry Christmas

Anyone have Victor King's 10* GOY (Total)?

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 16:

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 43)

Cowboys’ third-down offense vs. Redskins’ third-down defense

The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot – again – with another late-game collapse versus the Packers last weekend. Dallas’ issues are stacked to the roof of AT&T Stadium but perhaps the most glaring problem is its inability to convert on third down. The Cowboys have converted just 35.22 percent of their third downs this season and went a dismal 2-for-9 on third down in the loss to Green Bay. Quick three-and-outs are killing an already weak defense, and the offense hasn’t been able to pick up that slack.

Washington is maybe the only other team in the NFC with more internal issues than the Cowboys at this point. However, the Redskins proved they're going to fight to the finish with a close loss to Atlanta Sunday. The defense isn’t where it was last season but Washington is still doing a good job ushering teams off the field on third down. The Redskins have limited foes to a 34.71 percent success rate on third down and have been even stingier in recent outings, dropping that number to 29.73 percent over the last three games.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

Colts’ rushing defense vs. Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles

We’re usually a little more subtle when it comes to our weekly mismatches but after the day Charles had last week, the Chiefs’ multifaceted RB deserves respect. Charles threw a wrench in many fantasy football playoff matchups with his five-touchdown performance versus the Raiders. He caught all eight passes thrown his way for 195 yards and tacked on an additional 20 yards on the ground.

Charles has history with the Colts, racking up 226 yards rushing and a score in last year’s loss to Indianapolis. The Colts defense is among the worst at stopping the run - 128.9 yards against per game – and has been exposed by pass-catching backs all season. Most recently, Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard had a big day with 99 yards on the ground and another 49 through the air versus the Colts in Week 14.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)

Giants’ short secondary vs. Lions’ towering targets

New York’s secondary is in shambles with key corners and safeties causing traffic jams in the trainer’s room. The Giants’ two somewhat healthy CBs, Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride, have a tall task ahead of them Sunday. Amukamara and McBride stand just 6-foot and 5-foot-9 respectively and will try to slow down a Detroit receiving corps that could double as an NBA frontcourt.

Forget about Calvin Johnson and what his freakish 6-foot-5 frame can do. The Lions also boast beanpoles in 6-foot WR Nate Burleson, 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew and 6-foot-7 TE Joseph Fauria. New York has record only 29 sacks on the season and will give Matt Stafford plenty of time to toss jump balls to his towering targets Sunday afternoon. Add “Megatron” to the mix, who has a total of 191 yards and two TDs in two games versus N.Y., and it makes New York's nickname - The Giants - seem a bit misleading.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 56)

Bears’ big passing plays vs. Eagles’ bending to big plays

It doesn’t matter who’s under center for Chicago – Jay Cutler or Josh McCown – the Bears’ passing attack is doing big things. Over the past three games, Chicago has averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt – tops in the NFL during that span. Cutler let it rip for 265 yards and three TDs in his return under center versus Cleveland last weekend, picking up a healthy 11.9 yards per pass completion, including a 45-yard TD strike to Alshon Jeffery.

The Eagles got knocked on their ass in Minnesota last Sunday, allowing Vikings QB Matt Cassel to pass for 382 yards and two touchdowns. The pass defense has been slipping recently, hemorrhaging big gains and dropping to a league-worst 291.6 yards passing allowed per game. Philadelphia’s opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempts and 13 yards per completion over the last three contests. Poor tackling has led to an average of 146.6 yards allowed after the catch – fourth worst in the NFL.

Scott Ferrall paid picks
Minnesota

CINCINNATI -7 (1)



New Orleans

CAROLINA -3 (2)



New England

BALTIMORE -2 ½ (3)



ARIZONA +10 ½ (4)

Seattle



Indianapolis

KANSAS CITY -6 ½ (5)



MIAMI -2 ½ (6)

Buffalo

Irish Mike Moran

CHI O55.5(2x)
CHI+3
CAR-3
DEN-10(2x)
OAK+10
JAX+5.5
KC-6.5(2x)

Teaser
NE+8
DET-3
PIT+8.5
AZ+17