[h=1]MNF Chaser: How to bet ATL-SF[/h][h=3]Week 16 gambling reactions and examining Week 17 early line moves[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Sunday's Week 16 card again had all of the twists and turns that make the NFL the best reality show on TV, and Sunday's Week 17 is shaping up as a great season finale with a bunch of cliffhangers for the second season. However, before we get to my takeaways from Week 16 and a look at the opening lines for Week 17, we have some unfinished business with the ESPN "Monday Night Football" matchup with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers, who are up to a 14.5-point favorite in the last regular-season game at Candlestick Park, can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons and are still alive for the NFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they then beat the Arizona Cardinals next week and the Seattle Seahawks lose to the St. Louis Rams.
However, if the 49ers lose tonight, they could actually miss the playoffs at 10-6 if they lose to the Cardinals in Week 17 (if that sounds unfair, consider that if the 49ers win tonight, the Cardinals could win next week and still miss the playoffs at 11-5 if the Saints beat the Rams). Yes, it's been that kind of season.
This is how yours truly, Dave Tuley, sees tonight's game.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers[/h]
Opening spread: 49ers minus-13
Current spread: 49ers minus-14.5
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked 49ers
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Dave Tuley, ESPN Insider: "While the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their past five games and looking like the team that rolled all the way to a Super Bowl runner-up finish last season, the Falcons are 3-1 ATS in their past four games and are playing more like the team we expected at the start of the season. They still have the same offensive weapons with Matt Ryan, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas to trade scores with anyone. The Atlanta defense, while still a weak link, is playing better and gives hope that it can keep this to a one-possession game.
"I picked this game in my "Tuley's Take" column last Thursday when the line was plus-12.5 and noted that it could climb higher if the Seahawks lost. That happened, and the line is now more than two touchdowns, giving me what I believe is more betting value as the Falcons just have to keep it close enough to stay within two touchdowns, a margin of victory that the 49ers would also love to have. I think the Falcons, who continue to play hard despite being eliminated long ago, will be in this game throughout, but it's also nice to know that if they get behind by 17 or 20 that the back door should be wide open."
ATS pick: Falcons
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 16[/h]
1. Take my division, please
We've been talking about this for several weeks (several years actually, but I'm just talking about in this column): "Just Because A Team Must Win Doesn't Mean It Will Win." This has never been more evident than in the NFC North this season.
The Lions had the division for the taking when Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers were out, but they have lost five of their past six games, including Sunday's 23-20 OT loss to the Giants as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Bears could have clinched last night but were blown out 54-11 to set up Sunday's winner-take-all (or at least the NFC North) matchup in Chicago with the Packers. The Saints also had the NFC South title in their grasp and gave up a late TD in a 17-13 loss at Carolina, while the Chiefs, who had just gotten back in the AFC West hunt and a shot at the AFC's No. 1 seed last week when the Broncos lost to the Chargers, gave up their division hopes in a 23-7 loss to the Colts as a 7.5-point home favorite.
And the aforementioned Seahawks could have wrapped up the NFC West but lost 17-10 to the Cardinals as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Cowboys tried to give away the NFC East before rallying to the beat the Redskins 24-23 (but not covering the spread as a three-point road favorite). All of this also applies to teams in the wild-card hunt as we saw the Dolphins and Ravens both lose, keeping the hopes of the Chargers and Steelers alive.
2. Call them the Tennessee TIE-tans (and other NFL ATS betting tidbits)
The Titans were a 5.5-point favorite over the Jaguars most of last week, but by kickoff Sunday the line had settled to a ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line (which I use to grade all my NFL ATS stats) of Titans minus-4. The Titans rallied to beat the Jaguars 20-16, pushing on the final score. That hardly seems remarkable, but it gave them an ATS record of 6-5-4 this season. Yes, they've pushed four times.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
It was also their second push in a row as they lost to the Cardinals 37-34 in overtime last week as a three-point home underdog. Their other pushes were in a 20-17 victory in Week 3 as a three-point favorite over the Chargers, and a 30-27 loss in Week 11's Thursday night game as a three-point home underdog against the Colts. Is this an NFL record? That's hard to tell with the vagaries of what constitutes the closing line and who is doing the grading (I determine my VFV Closing Line from the list of the Vegas books on the Don Best Desktop Odds screen), but I know it's the most since I started doing this here in town before the turn of the century (1999, to be exact). The previous record from my stats was the Redskins pushing three games in 2010.
Some may say that "Vegas has this team figured out," though the reality is that it's more that the bettors have bet the Titans to the right number. When a game pushes, the books refund of all the wagers at that number, but they lose the vast majority at all other bets that it took to get to the number (in Sunday's case on the Jaguars plus-5.5, plus-5 and plus-4.5). The Titans opened minus-6.5 against the Texans for the season finale, but on Monday morning most books had gone to 7, making a fifth push possible (you can't get a push if the line doesn't close on a full number). The Titans also have been involved in four of the seven NFL pushes this year. Favorites went 8-4-1 ATS on Sunday, which doesn't include the two games that closed as consensus pick 'ems (Dolphins-Bills and Steelers-Packers).
3. Totals wagering was 'underwhelming'
After two straight weeks where the over has dominated, even in games with inclement weather, bettors reacted by loading up on the overs in the Week 16 games. The unders went 8-1 in the early games on Sunday and finished the day 11-4 despite the Sunday night game going over. Two of the overs came in the Vikings-Bengals and Steelers-Packers games, which lifted overs in interconference games to an incredible 49-15 (76.6 percent) against our consensus closing totals. There are no interconference games in Week 17, so the next AFC/NFC game is the Super Bowl. The LVH SuperBook has a total of 49.5 on its generic Super Bowl line (note: the NFC is a 2.5-point favorite).
4. 49ers/Cardinals tied for best ATS record; Saints/Panthers go under again
The Cardinals' upset of the Seahawks knocked Seattle from a first-place tie in our NFL ATS Standings and moved the Cards into a tie with the 49ers heading into Monday night's game (and their meeting next Sunday). The 49ers are 10-4 ATS while the Cardinals are 10-4-1. The Panthers, Bengals and Chargers are behind those NFC West teams at 9-5-1 ATS. The Texans haven't wrapped up the No. 1. draft choice but they've clinched the bottom spot at 3-12 ATS. Who has been the best over bet this season? The Vikings at 11-3-1, as they went over in their third straight game Sunday, thanks mostly to their poor defense in a 42-14 loss to the Bengals. The Broncos and Bears are right behind them at 11-4, though the Broncos have stayed under in two straight games. The top under teams are the Saints and Panthers at 10-4-1, as they went under in both their meetings this year, too. The Saints have gone under in six straight games.
Favorites: 162-72-1 SU, 119-107-7 (52.7 percent) ... six games have closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 141-94-1 SU, 126-103-7 ATS (55 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London; one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 30-52 SU, 41-38-3 ATS (51.9 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 7-21 SU, 16-11-1 ATS (59.3 percent)
Over/unders: 124-110-5 (53 percent) <!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, at about 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, the LVH put up its Week 17 openers, including those involving teams still playing on Sunday and Monday night. Once again, the only game left off the betting board involved the Packers and the status of Aaron Rodgers, who has not played since getting injured in the first quarter of Green Bay's first meeting with the Bears on Nov. 4.
[h=3]Early Week 17 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
Panthers minus-7 at Falcons: William Hill also opened this line at minus-7, while most books have it off the board with the Falcons playing Monday night. It could move off the key number depending on how they play against the 49ers. <!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 17 LVH Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Panthers -7
Falcons
Packers
Bears OFF
Texans
Titans -6.5
Browns
Steelers -6
Redskins
Giants -3.5
Ravens
Bengals -3.5
Jaguars
Colts -4
Eagles
Cowboys -2.5
Jets
Dolphins -6
Lions -2.5
Vikings
Bills
Patriots -8.5
Buccaneers
Saints -12
Broncos -13
Raiders
49ers -3
Cardinals
Chiefs
Chargers -7.5
Rams
Seahawks -10
<!-- end inline 3 -->Packers at Bears OFF: This will be the most-watched line of the week (or the least-watched if the Packers keep delaying a decision on Rodgers' availability). If he returns, the Pack could be a short road favorite. If not, the Bears should be a favorite of about minus-4.5 (I wouldn't make them any higher after Sunday night's performance, that's for sure).
Texans at Titans minus-6.5: As mentioned in "Tuley's Takeaways," this opened at minus-6.5, but as of Monday morning it had gone to 7. The Texans continue to get bet despite their 3-12 ATS mark, so we might see it dip again to 6.5, but it's likely the public will push it back to 7.
Browns at Steelers minus-6: This opened even lower offshore, but with more talk about the Steelers still having a shot at a wild-card spot, it has steamed to minus-7. It could go to 7.5.
Redskins at Giants minus-3.5: This game has no playoff implications and looks solid at minus-3.5.
Ravens at Bengals minus-3.5: The CRIS offshore books opened this at Bengals minus-4 and early money has come in on the Bengals everywhere, as they're still battling for a possible first-round bye if the Patriots stumble. The Ravens needs the game, too, so I wouldn't expect it to go much higher, probably peaking at 6.
Jaguars at Colts minus-4: The minus-4 didn't last long as it was moved to 6.5 at the LVH within 18 minutes. That was before it was announced the Bills-Patriots game would be moved to a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, meaning the Colts (still hoping for a first-round bye) won't have the luxury of scoreboard watching. On Monday morning, offshore books CRIS and BetOnline opened at 11.5, while William Hill went with 10.5 and that looks like where it's settling.
Eagles at Cowboys minus-2.5: The LVH went with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point favorite in the NFC East-deciding game that has been moved to Sunday night. When the Eagles' game against the Bears kicked off, the LVH took down the line. At halftime, as the Eagles were on the way to their easy win, the CRIS offshore book made the Eagles the 2.5-point favorite and that's what most books went with on Monday morning. Early betting looks like it's going to push the line to Eagles minus-3.
Jets at Dolphins minus-6: This opened minus-6.5 at other books and looks like it could be heading to 7 with the Dolphins needing to win to keep their wild-card hopes alive.
Lions minus-2.5 at Vikings: Here's another change of favorite (which is quite common in NFL Week 17s). The LVH made the Lions the favorite, but didn't take any bets, according to supervisor Jeff Sherman, who said they made the switch to the Vikings minus-2.5 with the Lions eliminated and Calvin Johnson less likely to play. As of Monday morning, the line was up to Vikings minus-3 with added juice -- so it's quite possible it'll go to 3.5.
Bills at Patriots minus-8.5: This opened as low as minus-7.5 at CRIS but both have since been bet up to 9. With the Patriots probably needing to win to secure a first-round bye, it wouldn't be surprising to see this go to double digits.
Buccaneers at Saints minus-12: This has been bet up slightly to minus-12.5 and looks like the peak will be 13 (unless the public just goes nuts in laying the points).
Broncos minus-13 at Raiders: Similar to the above game, this looks like it's going to settle somewhere in between 10 points and two touchdowns.
49ers minus-3 at Cardinals: This was also opened 49ers minus-3 by the William Hill books in Nevada, but could be greatly affected by Monday night's result.
Chiefs at Chargers minus-7.5: This was opened at minus-7.5, but with the Chiefs being locked into the AFC's top wild-card spot (and No. 5 seed) and the Chargers still alive for the last wild card, it's been adjusted to minus-10. Early support is coming in on the Chiefs, so I suspect this will end up in the 7.5-to-9.5 range.
Rams at Seahawks minus-10: Unless the 49ers lose outright on Monday night, the Seahawks will need to beat the Rams to clinch the NFC West. This number looks pretty solid.
So there's the opening look at the Week 17 lines. Join us Thursday (moved up from its previous Friday spot) for our "Tuley's Take" column as we look at how the public and wiseguys view this weekend's action and I give my "take" on each game after the lines have settled.
LAS VEGAS -- Sunday's Week 16 card again had all of the twists and turns that make the NFL the best reality show on TV, and Sunday's Week 17 is shaping up as a great season finale with a bunch of cliffhangers for the second season. However, before we get to my takeaways from Week 16 and a look at the opening lines for Week 17, we have some unfinished business with the ESPN "Monday Night Football" matchup with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers, who are up to a 14.5-point favorite in the last regular-season game at Candlestick Park, can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons and are still alive for the NFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they then beat the Arizona Cardinals next week and the Seattle Seahawks lose to the St. Louis Rams.
However, if the 49ers lose tonight, they could actually miss the playoffs at 10-6 if they lose to the Cardinals in Week 17 (if that sounds unfair, consider that if the 49ers win tonight, the Cardinals could win next week and still miss the playoffs at 11-5 if the Saints beat the Rams). Yes, it's been that kind of season.
This is how yours truly, Dave Tuley, sees tonight's game.
Opening spread: 49ers minus-13
Current spread: 49ers minus-14.5
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked 49ers
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Dave Tuley, ESPN Insider: "While the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their past five games and looking like the team that rolled all the way to a Super Bowl runner-up finish last season, the Falcons are 3-1 ATS in their past four games and are playing more like the team we expected at the start of the season. They still have the same offensive weapons with Matt Ryan, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas to trade scores with anyone. The Atlanta defense, while still a weak link, is playing better and gives hope that it can keep this to a one-possession game.
"I picked this game in my "Tuley's Take" column last Thursday when the line was plus-12.5 and noted that it could climb higher if the Seahawks lost. That happened, and the line is now more than two touchdowns, giving me what I believe is more betting value as the Falcons just have to keep it close enough to stay within two touchdowns, a margin of victory that the 49ers would also love to have. I think the Falcons, who continue to play hard despite being eliminated long ago, will be in this game throughout, but it's also nice to know that if they get behind by 17 or 20 that the back door should be wide open."
ATS pick: Falcons
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 16[/h]
1. Take my division, please
We've been talking about this for several weeks (several years actually, but I'm just talking about in this column): "Just Because A Team Must Win Doesn't Mean It Will Win." This has never been more evident than in the NFC North this season.
The Lions had the division for the taking when Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers were out, but they have lost five of their past six games, including Sunday's 23-20 OT loss to the Giants as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Bears could have clinched last night but were blown out 54-11 to set up Sunday's winner-take-all (or at least the NFC North) matchup in Chicago with the Packers. The Saints also had the NFC South title in their grasp and gave up a late TD in a 17-13 loss at Carolina, while the Chiefs, who had just gotten back in the AFC West hunt and a shot at the AFC's No. 1 seed last week when the Broncos lost to the Chargers, gave up their division hopes in a 23-7 loss to the Colts as a 7.5-point home favorite.
And the aforementioned Seahawks could have wrapped up the NFC West but lost 17-10 to the Cardinals as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Cowboys tried to give away the NFC East before rallying to the beat the Redskins 24-23 (but not covering the spread as a three-point road favorite). All of this also applies to teams in the wild-card hunt as we saw the Dolphins and Ravens both lose, keeping the hopes of the Chargers and Steelers alive.
2. Call them the Tennessee TIE-tans (and other NFL ATS betting tidbits)
The Titans were a 5.5-point favorite over the Jaguars most of last week, but by kickoff Sunday the line had settled to a ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line (which I use to grade all my NFL ATS stats) of Titans minus-4. The Titans rallied to beat the Jaguars 20-16, pushing on the final score. That hardly seems remarkable, but it gave them an ATS record of 6-5-4 this season. Yes, they've pushed four times.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
It was also their second push in a row as they lost to the Cardinals 37-34 in overtime last week as a three-point home underdog. Their other pushes were in a 20-17 victory in Week 3 as a three-point favorite over the Chargers, and a 30-27 loss in Week 11's Thursday night game as a three-point home underdog against the Colts. Is this an NFL record? That's hard to tell with the vagaries of what constitutes the closing line and who is doing the grading (I determine my VFV Closing Line from the list of the Vegas books on the Don Best Desktop Odds screen), but I know it's the most since I started doing this here in town before the turn of the century (1999, to be exact). The previous record from my stats was the Redskins pushing three games in 2010.
Some may say that "Vegas has this team figured out," though the reality is that it's more that the bettors have bet the Titans to the right number. When a game pushes, the books refund of all the wagers at that number, but they lose the vast majority at all other bets that it took to get to the number (in Sunday's case on the Jaguars plus-5.5, plus-5 and plus-4.5). The Titans opened minus-6.5 against the Texans for the season finale, but on Monday morning most books had gone to 7, making a fifth push possible (you can't get a push if the line doesn't close on a full number). The Titans also have been involved in four of the seven NFL pushes this year. Favorites went 8-4-1 ATS on Sunday, which doesn't include the two games that closed as consensus pick 'ems (Dolphins-Bills and Steelers-Packers).
3. Totals wagering was 'underwhelming'
After two straight weeks where the over has dominated, even in games with inclement weather, bettors reacted by loading up on the overs in the Week 16 games. The unders went 8-1 in the early games on Sunday and finished the day 11-4 despite the Sunday night game going over. Two of the overs came in the Vikings-Bengals and Steelers-Packers games, which lifted overs in interconference games to an incredible 49-15 (76.6 percent) against our consensus closing totals. There are no interconference games in Week 17, so the next AFC/NFC game is the Super Bowl. The LVH SuperBook has a total of 49.5 on its generic Super Bowl line (note: the NFC is a 2.5-point favorite).
4. 49ers/Cardinals tied for best ATS record; Saints/Panthers go under again
The Cardinals' upset of the Seahawks knocked Seattle from a first-place tie in our NFL ATS Standings and moved the Cards into a tie with the 49ers heading into Monday night's game (and their meeting next Sunday). The 49ers are 10-4 ATS while the Cardinals are 10-4-1. The Panthers, Bengals and Chargers are behind those NFC West teams at 9-5-1 ATS. The Texans haven't wrapped up the No. 1. draft choice but they've clinched the bottom spot at 3-12 ATS. Who has been the best over bet this season? The Vikings at 11-3-1, as they went over in their third straight game Sunday, thanks mostly to their poor defense in a 42-14 loss to the Bengals. The Broncos and Bears are right behind them at 11-4, though the Broncos have stayed under in two straight games. The top under teams are the Saints and Panthers at 10-4-1, as they went under in both their meetings this year, too. The Saints have gone under in six straight games.
Favorites: 162-72-1 SU, 119-107-7 (52.7 percent) ... six games have closed consensus pick 'em so no favorite
Home teams: 141-94-1 SU, 126-103-7 ATS (55 percent) ... doesn't count two games on neutral field in London; one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 30-52 SU, 41-38-3 ATS (51.9 percent)
Double-digit dogs: 7-21 SU, 16-11-1 ATS (59.3 percent)
Over/unders: 124-110-5 (53 percent) <!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com all records based on VFV Consensus Closing Lines; teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record then ATS streak; O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers (10-4) | 10-4 | W1 | 6-8 | O1 |
| Arizona Cardinals (10-5) | 10-4-1 | W1 | 7-8 | U1 |
| Seattle Seahawks (12-3) | 10-5 | L1 | 6-9 | U4 |
| Carolina Panthers (11-4) | 9-5-1 | W1 | 4-10-1 | U1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) | 9-5-1 | W1 | 9-6 | O3 |
| San Diego Chargers (8-7) | 9-5-1 | W3 | 6-9 | U2 |
| Denver Broncos (12-3) | 9-6 | W1 | 11-4 | U2 |
| Miami Dolphins (8-7) | 9-6 | L1 | 6-8-1 | U2 |
| Indianapolis Colts (10-5) | 8-6-1 | W2 | 8-7 | U2 |
| New York Jets (7-8) | 8-6-1 | W1 | 8-6-1 | U1 |
| Tennessee Titans (6-9) | 6-5-4 | P2 | 9-5-1 | U1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) | 8-7 | L1 | 6-9 | U1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) | 8-7 | W1 | 9-6 | O3 |
| Dallas Cowboys (8-7) | 8-7 | L4 | 8-6-1 | U1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) | 8-7 | W2 | 8-7 | O4 |
| Buffalo Bills (6-9) | 8-7 | W2 | 8-6-1 | U1 |
| Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1) | 8-7 | L1 | 11-3-1 | O3 |
| Oakland Raiders (4-11) | 8-7 | L3 | 7-7-1 | U1 |
| Baltimore Ravens (8-7) | 7-7-1 | L1 | 7-8 | O1 |
| New England Patriots (11-4) | 7-8 | W1 | 8-7 | O1 |
| New Orleans Saints (10-5) | 7-8 | L2 | 4-10-1 | U6 |
| St. Louis Rams (7-8) | 7-8 | W2 | 9-6 | U4 |
| Detroit Lions (7-8) | 6-9 | L3 | 8-7 | U2 |
| New York Giants (6-9) | 6-9 | W1 | 6-8-1 | U2 |
| Cleveland Browns (4-11) | 6-9 | L2 | 9-6 | U1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) | 6-9 | L2 | 7-8 | U1 |
| Atlanta Falcons (4-10) | 5-9 | L1 | 8-6 | O1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) | 5-9-1 | P1 | 9-6 | U1 |
| Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) | 5-10 | L1 | 8-7 | O2 |
| Washington Redskins (3-12) | 5-10 | W2 | 8-7 | U1 |
| Chicago Bears (8-7) | 4-9-2 | L1 | 11-4 | O3 |
| Houston Texans (2-13) | 3-12 | L3 | 9-6 | U2 |
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
As per usual, at about 4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, the LVH put up its Week 17 openers, including those involving teams still playing on Sunday and Monday night. Once again, the only game left off the betting board involved the Packers and the status of Aaron Rodgers, who has not played since getting injured in the first quarter of Green Bay's first meeting with the Bears on Nov. 4.
[h=3]Early Week 17 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the LVH. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including where the offshore openers might have differed, how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon and night, and how they might move during the week. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number.
Panthers minus-7 at Falcons: William Hill also opened this line at minus-7, while most books have it off the board with the Falcons playing Monday night. It could move off the key number depending on how they play against the 49ers. <!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 17 LVH Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Panthers -7
Falcons
Packers
Bears OFF
Texans
Titans -6.5
Browns
Steelers -6
Redskins
Giants -3.5
Ravens
Bengals -3.5
Jaguars
Colts -4
Eagles
Cowboys -2.5
Jets
Dolphins -6
Lions -2.5
Vikings
Bills
Patriots -8.5
Buccaneers
Saints -12
Broncos -13
Raiders
49ers -3
Cardinals
Chiefs
Chargers -7.5
Rams
Seahawks -10
<!-- end inline 3 -->Packers at Bears OFF: This will be the most-watched line of the week (or the least-watched if the Packers keep delaying a decision on Rodgers' availability). If he returns, the Pack could be a short road favorite. If not, the Bears should be a favorite of about minus-4.5 (I wouldn't make them any higher after Sunday night's performance, that's for sure).
Texans at Titans minus-6.5: As mentioned in "Tuley's Takeaways," this opened at minus-6.5, but as of Monday morning it had gone to 7. The Texans continue to get bet despite their 3-12 ATS mark, so we might see it dip again to 6.5, but it's likely the public will push it back to 7.
Browns at Steelers minus-6: This opened even lower offshore, but with more talk about the Steelers still having a shot at a wild-card spot, it has steamed to minus-7. It could go to 7.5.
Redskins at Giants minus-3.5: This game has no playoff implications and looks solid at minus-3.5.
Ravens at Bengals minus-3.5: The CRIS offshore books opened this at Bengals minus-4 and early money has come in on the Bengals everywhere, as they're still battling for a possible first-round bye if the Patriots stumble. The Ravens needs the game, too, so I wouldn't expect it to go much higher, probably peaking at 6.
Jaguars at Colts minus-4: The minus-4 didn't last long as it was moved to 6.5 at the LVH within 18 minutes. That was before it was announced the Bills-Patriots game would be moved to a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, meaning the Colts (still hoping for a first-round bye) won't have the luxury of scoreboard watching. On Monday morning, offshore books CRIS and BetOnline opened at 11.5, while William Hill went with 10.5 and that looks like where it's settling.
Eagles at Cowboys minus-2.5: The LVH went with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point favorite in the NFC East-deciding game that has been moved to Sunday night. When the Eagles' game against the Bears kicked off, the LVH took down the line. At halftime, as the Eagles were on the way to their easy win, the CRIS offshore book made the Eagles the 2.5-point favorite and that's what most books went with on Monday morning. Early betting looks like it's going to push the line to Eagles minus-3.
Jets at Dolphins minus-6: This opened minus-6.5 at other books and looks like it could be heading to 7 with the Dolphins needing to win to keep their wild-card hopes alive.
Lions minus-2.5 at Vikings: Here's another change of favorite (which is quite common in NFL Week 17s). The LVH made the Lions the favorite, but didn't take any bets, according to supervisor Jeff Sherman, who said they made the switch to the Vikings minus-2.5 with the Lions eliminated and Calvin Johnson less likely to play. As of Monday morning, the line was up to Vikings minus-3 with added juice -- so it's quite possible it'll go to 3.5.
Bills at Patriots minus-8.5: This opened as low as minus-7.5 at CRIS but both have since been bet up to 9. With the Patriots probably needing to win to secure a first-round bye, it wouldn't be surprising to see this go to double digits.
Buccaneers at Saints minus-12: This has been bet up slightly to minus-12.5 and looks like the peak will be 13 (unless the public just goes nuts in laying the points).
Broncos minus-13 at Raiders: Similar to the above game, this looks like it's going to settle somewhere in between 10 points and two touchdowns.
49ers minus-3 at Cardinals: This was also opened 49ers minus-3 by the William Hill books in Nevada, but could be greatly affected by Monday night's result.
Chiefs at Chargers minus-7.5: This was opened at minus-7.5, but with the Chiefs being locked into the AFC's top wild-card spot (and No. 5 seed) and the Chargers still alive for the last wild card, it's been adjusted to minus-10. Early support is coming in on the Chiefs, so I suspect this will end up in the 7.5-to-9.5 range.
Rams at Seahawks minus-10: Unless the 49ers lose outright on Monday night, the Seahawks will need to beat the Rams to clinch the NFC West. This number looks pretty solid.
So there's the opening look at the Week 17 lines. Join us Thursday (moved up from its previous Friday spot) for our "Tuley's Take" column as we look at how the public and wiseguys view this weekend's action and I give my "take" on each game after the lines have settled.
