Service Plays Thursday 12/26/13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Utah State vs. Northern Illinois

The Aggies come into the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl facing a Northern Illinois team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 December games. Utah State is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+4 1/2). Here are all of this year's bowl games:

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl betting: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Panthers at Bowling Green Falcons (-4, 50)

Game will be played at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Bowling Green returns to Ford Field for the second time in 20 days on Dec. 26 when it faces Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The Falcons claimed their first MAC Championship in 21 years with a 47-27 victory over previously undefeated Northern Illinois, but they will make this trip to Detroit without Dave Clawson, who filled the coaching vacancy at Wake Forest after turning Bowling Green around in five seasons. Special teams coordinator Adam Scheier will serve as the interim coach.

2. For the first time since 2009, the Panthers will spend the postseason somewhere else besides Birmingham, Ala. Pittsburgh concluded each of its last three years in the BBVA Compass Bowl, defeating Kentucky at the end of the its 2010 season before ending the last two campaigns with losses to Southern Methodist and Mississippi.

3. The Falcons rank fifth in the country in scoring defense (14.8 points) and eighth in total defense (308.7 yards), but the most dominant defensive player on the field figures to be Panthers defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner and ACC Defensive Player of the Year leads the nation in tackles for loss (26.5), is tied for eighth in forced fumbles (four) and tied for 13th in sacks (10).

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 6-point faves, but have been bet down to -4. The total has stayed put at 50.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 5-7 ATS): Donald, who is also a finalist for the Lombardi, Bednarik and Outland Trophies, is the first Pitt defensive player to win a national award since Hugh Green claimed the Lombardi, Maxwell and Walter Camp awards in 1980. With 77 catches for 1,001 yards, Tyler Boyd broke Larry Fitzgerald’s school record of 69 receptions by a freshman and needs only five more yards to surpass him in that category. Devin Street is the school’s all-time leading receiver and the first Panther with more than 200 career catches.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (10-3, 10-3 ATS): While the defense receives more credit, the offense has done its fair share during the Falcons’ five-game winning streak in which they have outscored opponents 223-44. Matt Johnson, who threw for a career-high 393 yards and broke a MAC championship record with five touchdown passes, has thrown for at least three scores four times during the winning streak. Travis Greene has rushed for over 100 yards nine times and ran for 1,575 yards this season, both of which are school records.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in December.
* Bowling Green is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four non-conference games.

Poinsettia Bowl betting: What bettors need to know

Utah State Aggies vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (-1.5, 58)

The game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch plays the final game of his stellar college career when No. 23 Northern Illinois faces Utah State in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 26. Lynch has passed for 2,676 yards and 23 touchdowns, but it is his running abilities that allowed him to crash the Heisman festivities. Lynch rushed for 1,881 yards and 22 scores and twice ran for more than 300 yards in a game.

2. The Huskies were hoping to play in a BCS bowl for the second straight year but were relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl after losing to Bowling Green in the Mid-American Conference title game. A victory would give Northern Illinois the first 13-win season in school history while Utah State is playing in back-to-back-to-back bowls for the first time ever and is looking for the third bowl victory in school history.

3. The Aggies lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton at midseason and it was thought their fortunes would spiral downward. But Utah State rebounded to win its final five regular-season games and is brimming with confidence after giving Fresno State a hard battle in the Mountain West title game before succumbing.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line hasn't moved off -1.5 and the total has stayed put at 58.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the mid 60s.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-5 ATS): The Huskies average 41.6 points and 535.5 total yards with nearly 60 percent of the production (312.5) coming on the ground. Lynch is complemented by running back Cameron Stingily (1,081, nine touchdowns) and his favorite targets are possession receiver Tommylee Lewis (80 catches, 660 yards) and big-play wideout Da’Ron Brown (42 for 689, nine TDs). Northern Illinois allows 25.4 points per game and the defense is led by safety Jimmie Ward (team leader with 89 tackles and six interceptions), outside linebacker Jamaal Bass (81 stops) and middle linebacker Boomer Mayes (77 tackles).

ABOUT UTAH STATE (8-5, 8-5 ATS): The Aggies are stout on defense, ranking seventh in scoring defense (17.3), 10th in rushing defense (107.3) and 12th in total defense (332.1) while featuring several standouts. Inside linebackers Jake Doughty (140 tackles, 10.5 for loss) and Zach Vigil (115 tackles, 12.5 for loss) are always around the ball while cornerback Nevin Lawson and safety Brian Suite each have four interceptions. Freshman Darell Garretson (1,325 yards, nine touchdowns) replaced Keeton at quarterback for an offense that also features running back Joey DeMartino (1,078 yards, 12 scores) and three wideouts who caught 50 or more passes in Bruce Natson (56), Travis Reynolds (51) and Travis Van Leeuwen (50).

TRENDS:

* Utah State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
* Norther Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games in December.
* Under is 4-0 in Utah State's last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Northern Illinois last four non-conference games.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]Dave Cokin

213 Pittsburgh +5.5

From the COLLEGE BOWL GUIDE
STATFOX FORECASTER

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL:
PITTSBURGH (213) AT BOWLING GREEN (214)

Latest Line: Bowling Green -4.5; Total: 50.0
Bowling Green will play its second straight game at Ford Field when it seeks a sixth consecutive victory facing a Pittsburgh team that's 2-4 SU in its past six games. The MAC champion Falcons are allowing just 14.8 PPG this year (5th in nation), while their offense has 44.6 PPG on 506 total YPG during the win streak with QB Matt Johnson throwing for 274 YPG and 14 TD. The Panthers, who are ending a run of three straight BBVA Compass Bowl appearances, rank 86th in the nation in scoring offense (26.0 PPG), and have allowed 28.0 PPG on 390 total YPG in their past four contests.
FORECASTER: Bowling Green 32, Pittsburgh 18

Phil Steel Inside the PressBox Thursday Bowl Predictions:

BEST BET: PITT 24 BOWLING GREEN 23


UTAH ST 30 N ILLINOIS 24

Northcoast Marquee

bowl double play line #214 BOWLING GREEN UNDER 50

Mark Franco

Bowling Green -5

Scott Ferrall paid picks
Pittsburgh
BOWLING GREEN -5 ½


Utah State
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1 ½



MARSHALL -2 ½
Maryland


Syracuse
MINNESOTA -4 ½


Washington
BYU +3

Sports Insights Bowl Picks

215 Poinsettia Bowl: Utah St +1.5 over Northern Illinois – Northern Illinois just cannot be motivated and it’s a great matchup for the USU run defense that is among the best in the country. I suppose the Utah St offense could be a means for concern especially at QB, but they have enough to win this this game and should be favored.

216 Poinsettia Bowl: Utah St/Northern Illinois under 58 – Great matchup for both defenses as both are better at stopping run. Utah St offense probably not capable of fully exploiting a bad No Ill defense. My best totals model has this at 54 and another rating system I use makes it only 47.

213 Little Caesers Pizza Bowl: Pittsburgh +5 over Bowling Green – I really like the Pitt coaching staff and I feel that there’s an inflated perception of BG after killing Northern Illinois in the MAC Title game. Northern Illinois is so overrated and BG pass offense shredded them. Anyhow, Pitt should be able to run the ball down BG’s throat.

H&H Sports

CFB Triple Dime Bowling Green

Double Dime Utah State

Chicago Syndicate

CFB Bowling Green

Sports Nostradamus

CFB Bowling Green

LA Syndicate

CFB Utah State & Under

Hawks at Cavaliers: What bettors need to know

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (+1, 200)

The Atlanta Hawks may have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference but they have been woeful on the road entering Thursday’s visit to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers. Atlanta is just 4-9 away from home and has lost five straight since posting a road victory over the Detroit Pistons on Nov. 22. The Cavaliers have an 8-5 home mark but are coming off their worst in-town showing of the season, a 115-92 defeat against the Detroit Pistons on Monday.

Cleveland will be looking to shake off back-to-back losing efforts by an average of 19.5 points when they entertain the Hawks. Coach Mike Brown was highly dejected after the team’s second straight miserable outing. “The mental approach is probably tougher than the physical approach,” Brown said. “We haven’t arrived. We’re getting hit in the mouth right now and I’m interested to see if we can respond the right way.” Atlanta lost in overtime to the Miami Heat on Monday despite making 17 3-pointers – tying for second-most in franchise history – including a career-best seven from Paul Millsap.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Atlanta), FSN Ohio (Cleveland)

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Hawks (-8.8) - Cavaliers (-3.5) + Home court (-3.0) = Hawks -2.3

ABOUT THE HAWKS (15-13, 17-11 ATS): Center Al Horford is averaging a career-best 18.3 points and looks on his way to the third All-Star appearance of his career. Horford has played superbly over the last six games, posting four double-doubles and averaging 23.2 points and 9.5 rebounds. Millsap is averaging 16.7 points and opening eyes with his sudden ability to knock down 3-point shots. After making just 31 in seven seasons with the Utah Jazz, the 6-8 forward has made 30 this season while shooting an impressive 45.5 percent from behind the arc, eighth-best in the NBA.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (10-17, 10-17 ATS): Point guard Kyrie Irving figures to have plenty of motivation after going scoreless on 0-for-9 shooting against the Hawks earlier this month. Since that horrific performance, Irving has scored 20 or more points in six of eight games while averaging 25.8 points. He has three 30-point outings during the stretch that has raised his season mark to 21.5. Irving was among the dismayed players after the Detroit loss. “We’re just not being physical enough; that’s what it basically boils down to,” he said. “We’re just not starting off the games in the right way like we normally do.”

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Cleveland.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Hawks are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Horford had 22 points and nine rebounds to help the Hawks post the 108-89 home win over Cleveland on Dec. 6.

2. Cavaliers G Dion Waiters (wrist) has missed three consecutive games.

3. Atlanta leads the NBA in assists per game (25.7) and has had least 20 in 26 of its 28 games.

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Duke Blue Devils (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS)

The Blue Devils are the only team in the Top 10 with more than one loss, but both of those defeats came against teams ranked in the Top 5. They lost to then-No.5 Kansas by a score of 94-83, and to Arizona by a score of 72-66 just a few weeks later. The Wildcats have since moved all the way to No. 1, still undefeated at 12-0.

The Blue Devils have won three straight since losing to Arizona, including a win over the 22nd-ranked Wolverines, and a decisive 17-point victory over UCLA. Jabari Parker has lived up to the hype, averaging 22.1 points per game and shooting 48 percent from beyond the arc.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Massachusetts Minutemen (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS)

The Minutemen started off the season with 10 straight wins, including an 81-65 victory over then-No. 22 New Mexico. The Lobos have since slipped out of the rankings and the Minutemen lost their last game versus Florida State.

Massachusetts has a pretty light schedule but with five of the next 10 games on the road, things will get a little tougher for the Minutemen. They shot just 1 for 15 from beyond the arc in the loss to Florida State and the Seminoles blocked a season high 12 shots.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Creighton Bluejays (9-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)

The Bluejays senior forward Doug McDermott is the second-highest scorer in the nation, averaging 24.8 points per game. Creighton is still undefeated at home, with a record of 6-0. They lost a pair of neutral-site games to George Washington and San Diego State.

There’s no shortage of tough games on the schedule for the Bluejays as they begin conference play, but this team should be able to compete with the best in the Big East.

English Premier League: Boxing Day cheat sheet

We all know Boxing Day was created to house a full-slate of Premier League football and this season is no different. All 20 of England's top-flight clubs take the field but one match played in Manchester stands head and shoulders above the rest as a proper gift to football fans.

Hull v Manchester United (+600, +320, -182)

Why bet Hull: The Tigers have won just once in their last seven matches, but have played well enough to get draws in three-straight - two of which were away fixtures. Hull is a tough squad and fairly tight defensively, but Robbie Brady appears set to miss the holiday schedule, which will hurt the Tigers' attack.

Key players out/doubtful: Robbie Brady, Sone Aluko, Stephen Quinn

Why bet Manchester United: The Red Devils have won back-to-back matches and looked excellent in defeating West Ham in their last effort. Robin van Persie's absence from the squad hasn't been felt as Wayne Rooney, Danny Welbeck and teenage-sensation Adnan Januzaj have carried the scoring load.

Key players out/doubtful: Marouane Fellaini, Robin van Persie, Nani, Michael Carrick

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: United's last six Premier League matches all surpassed the 2.5 goal total.


Aston Villa v Crystal Palace (-110, +250, +350)

Why bet Villa: Once upon a time, Christian Benteke was the toast of Aston Villa. The Belgian has disappointed so far this season, but summer signing Libor Kozak has shouldered the brunt of the scoring responsibility. The big Czech has four goals on the campaign and pulled the side even with Stoke last weekend, before Villa lost. They are slumping of late, but a still a dangerous attacking side that will look ascend the table against the promoted Eagles.

Key players out/doubtful: Ashley Westwood, Jores Okore

Why bet Palace: Palace has three wins in their last six, but still sit in the relegation zone in the table. The side has played miles better under Tony Pulis, but are coming off a tough defeat at the hands of a game Newcastle side last time out. Still, nobody expected Palace to make any real noise in the league, so staying up is the main go0al and some good results over the packed holiday schedule will do wonders.

Key players out/doubtful: Marouane Chamakh, Jerome Thomas, Adlène Guédioura

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Crystal Palace has just one win in eight away matches this season.


Cardiff v Southampton (+230, +230, +138)

Why bet Cardiff: Cardiff started the season quite well, but that's in the past as the side has hit a bit of a rough patch of late. They were dominated against Liverpool and Luis Suarez in their last match and need to get back on track before they joint fellow promoted club Crystal Palace in the relegation zone. Home to a slumping Southampton is a great start.

Key players out/doubtful: Craig Bellamy

Why bet Southampton: The wheels have most certainly fallen off the Southampton bandwagon of late as the club has plummeted to ninth and have not posted a win since Nov. 9. The rock-solid defense that carried in them in the early stages of the season has looked pedestrian at best of late. They should play a cagey, tight game away at Wales and try to nick a goal on the counter attack to get a positive result.

Key players out/doubtful: Victor Wanyama, Guly, Artur Boruc, Daniel Fox, Pablo Osvaldo

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Seven of Southampton's eight away games have resulted in Under the 2.5 goal total.


Chelsea v Swansea (-300, +450, +900)

Why bet Chelsea: Not the greatest of results for the Blues in Monday's marquee matchup with Arsenal. A lifeless 0-0 draw was uninspiring, but the London club is different at home. Jose Mourinho will look extend his much-ballyhooed unbeaten run at Stamford Bridge. The Swans are a hobbled side and could be in tough on this trip to London.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Bertrand, Marco van Ginkel

Why bet Swansea: Swansea still hasn't hit its full potential this season and could have a hard time doing so with star-player Michu now sidelined for an extended period. The side played well versus Everton Sunday, but a Ross Barkley free kick dashed any hopes for points. Michael Laudrup always his club inspired, but will be attempting to punch above their weight for weeks to come.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Nathan Dyer, Álvaro, Michel Vorm

2012-13 fixture result: Chelsea 2, Swansea 0

Key betting note: Chelsea is unbeaten in 17-straight league matches at Stamford Bridge.


Everton v Sunderland (-275, +425, +850)

Why bet Everton: Because they are the best story of the season. Still on one loss, new manager Roberto Martinez has the club playing some fantastic football and Sunday's win at Swansea moved the Toffees up to fifth place, level on 34 points with Chelsea. RB Seamus Coleman has been a key component to the side and had the opening goal in Wales Sunday.

Key players out/doubtful: Gerard Deulofeu, Arouna Koney, Darron Gibson, Tony Hibbert

Why bet Sunderland: Poor Sunderland. The Black Cats are stuck on two wins and sit bottom of the table with 10 points. But all things considered, three draws in their last five matches isn't terrible considering the way the season started. They'll be in tough at Goodison, but Sunderland is a much better side than what we've seen.

Key players out/doubtful: Wes Brown, Keiren Westwood, Carlos Cuéllar

2012-13 fixture result: Everton 2, Sunderland 1

Key betting note: The Black Cats haven't scored in their last six away matches.


Newcastle v Stoke (-133, +280, +425)

Why bet Newcastle: Much like Everton, the Magpies are another good story this season. The side was dismal last season despite bringing in a number of talented players - particularly from France's Ligue 1. This season, all of Alan Pardew's pieces seem to have fallen in place and the team is playing some sparkling football. Yohan Cabaye returned to the XI last weekend and instantly made his presence felt with the game's opening goal.

Key players out/doubtful: Cheick Tioté, Ryan Taylor

Why bet Stoke: Per the norm, the Potters are always a tough side. They have two draws and two wins in their last four games and sit 10th in the table. Gangly striker Peter Crouch is playing well and leading the line with some confidence having picked up a goal last weekend and also has four assists in his last seven matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Matthew Etherington, Robert Huth

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 2, Stoke 1

Key betting note: Newcastle is unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches at St. Jame's Park.


Norwich v Fulham (+105, +250, +300)

Why bet Norwich: The Canaries have a tough hill to climb to get into the top 10, but their recent form has been promising and they'll wish for that to continue at the friendly confines of Carrow Road. They have one win and a pair of draws in their last three games and a slumping Fulham side will be the perfect opponent to keep the mood festive in East Anglia.

Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett, Alexander Tettey, Anthony Pilkington

Why bet Fulham: Probably not the best time. The Cottagers have been routinely destroyed in the league and recent performances have been no different. They've lost their last two outings by a combined scored of 8-3 as they've given up four goals to each of Liverpool and Manchester City. This is a side that is destined for the cellar.

Key players out/doubtful: Brede Hangeland, Matthew Briggs

2012-13 fixture result: Norwich 0, Fulham 0

Key betting note: Fulham has allowed at least three goals in its last three matches away from home.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom (-188, +333, +600)

Why bet Tottenham: In two games (one EPL, one league cup) with Tim Sherwood at the helm, Spurs have looked more and more dangerous on attack - something that was sorely lacking with Andre Villas-Boas at the helm. A 3-2 victory away to Southampton on the weekend was massive for the side and, surely, their confidence. Still, Spurs need to figure out a way to win at White Hart Lane. They're still leaky on the back line at times, but attacking football could be back in at Tottenham.

Key players out/doubtful: Paulinho, Jan Vertonghen, Younes Kaboul, Andros Townsend

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies have been abysmal of late and, like Southampton, have two points from the previous six matches. A 1-1 draw versus Hull snapped a dreadful four-match losing skid and they'll look to prey on a dismal home team. Spurs rank 13th in home form and have just 11 points from eight matches at White Hart Lane this season.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

2012-13 fixture result: Spurs 1, West Brom 1

Key betting note: West Brom hasn't won in seven-straight league matches.


West Ham v Arsenal (+550, +300, -163)

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers are home. That's about all there is to say about this side. They show no inspiration moving the ball forward and injuries remain a huge concern for the club. They were picked apart easily by Manchester United in their last effort and the second-place Gunners will look to do the same.

Key players out/doubtful: Mladen Petric, Winston Reid, Ricardo Vaz Te, Andy Carroll, Stewart Downing, James Tomkins

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners face big games over the holidays and must get results to keep up the pace with Liverpool and Man City. Jack Wilshere will miss the second of a two-match ban, but Theo Walcott should get the nod in his spot. The North London club will look for full points coming off a 0-0 draw with Chelsea Monday.

Key players out/doubtful: Jack Wilshere, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Yaya Sanogo, Laurent Koscielny, Mikel Arteta

2012-13 fixture result: West Ham 1, Arsenal 3

Key betting note: The Hammers have lost eight of the previous 10 Premier League meetings with Arsenal.


Manchester City v Liverpool (-133, +320, +360)

Why bet Manchester City: Their cannot be a club as feared at home as much as Manchester City at the moment. In ALL of Europe. They have a full 24 points from eight matches at home and have scored 35 goals while conceding just five. They look vulnerable on the road, true, but the Etihad has become a fortress. The Aguero injury could be pause for concern, but when considering just how good Negredo has been, the Argentine's absence won't be overly noticeable.

Key players out/doubtful: Sergio Agüero, Stevan Jovetic, Matija Nastasic, Micah Richards

Why bet Liverpool: Their cannot be a player as feared in the entire universe as much as Luis Suarez. The Uruguayan's goalscoring record is well documented, but it seems to be infectious for the entire side. Jordan Henderson's performance in the thumping of Cardiff was a thing of beauty, while Coutinho and Sterling continue to impress as the supporting cast of Liverpool's talisman. Whatever happens, Sunday's marquee fixture should be electric.

Key players out/doubtful: José Enrique, Daniel Sturridge, Steven Gerrard

2012-13 fixture result: Manchester City 2, Liverpool 2

Key betting note: Man City has scored at least three goals in its last six matches at the Etihad Stadium.

Bowling Green seeks 6th straight win Thursday vs. Pittsburgh
by Freddy Wander

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Thursday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Line: Bowling Green -4, Total: 50

Bowling Green is on a high after winning the Mid-American Conference title and looks to continue its success Thursday against Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl at Ford Field, the same venue in which the Falcons captured the MAC crown.

The Panthers barely secured a bowl bid, losing four of their final six games and finishing sixth in the seven-team ACC Coastal division. They had some big wins this year when they defeated Duke on the road and then Notre Dame in early November. Pittsburgh has been in a bowl game in each of the past three seasons and has lost the past two both SU and ATS. Last season, the Panthers faced Ole Miss in their third straight BBVA Compass Bowl appearance and lost 38-17 as 4-point underdogs. The Falcons put together a fantastic season and destroyed Northern Illinois’ chance at an undefeated season and a potential BCS bowl when they beat the Huskies by a score of 47-27 to win the MAC championship. That was Bowling Green's fifth straight win (SU and ATS) in which it outscored opponents by a hefty 223 to 44 margin. The Falcons participated in the Military Bowl last season, losing 29-20 against 7-point favorite San Jose State. These two programs have met just three times since 1999 with Pittsburgh going 2-1 (SU and ATS), but Bowling Green winning the most recent meeting in 2008 by a score of 27-17. The Falcons did great for bettors this season, going 10-3 ATS on the year and they are also 11-2 ATS after a win by 17 or more points over the past two seasons. The Panthers are a woeful 4-8 ATS this year, including 1-4 ATS on the road, but are 12-4 ATS after having lost to out of their past three games.

The Panthers were a one-dimensional offense with their passing attack averaging 237 YPG (61st in FBS) and their running game going for only 115YPG (112th in the nation) but surprisingly running for more than 200 yards in three different games, including 220 in the most recent contest, a 41-31 home loss to Miami. QB Tom Savage was solid all season, completing 61.1% of his passes for 2,834 yards passing (7.5 YPA), 21 TD and 9 INT. Over the past eight games, Savage has tossed only three interceptions, and he has thrown for more 200 yards (with 10 TD) in eight straight games. One reason that Savage had such a strong season was his stud freshman WR Tyler Boyd (1,001 rec. yards, 7 TD) and NFL hopeful senior WR Devin Street (854 rec. yards, 7 TD). Boyd has had 8+ receptions in four of his past five games, but broke 100 yards in only one of them, while Street missed two games on the year and surpassed six receptions only once. While the Panthers post underwhelming numbers in the running game (3.3 yards per carry), the duo of HBs Isaac Bennett (795 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 7 TD) and James Conner (570 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 7 TD) are both decent. DT Aaron Donald (10 sacks, 54 tackles) took home a lot of hardware this year (Chuck Bednarik Award, Bronko Nagurski Award and Outland Trophy), but he could only do so much, as the Pittsburgh defense allowed 27.2 PPG to their opponents on the season (71st in FBS). The Panthers allowed 374 total YPG, including 161 rushing YPG on 5.3 YPC.

The Bowling Green offense has tallied 473 total YPG on the season including 574 yards in the MAC championship game against NIU. The Falcons were led by QB Matt Johnson who threw for 3,195 yards (9.5 YPA) with 23 TD and 7 INT. He put up his best game of the season against NIU in the championship game when he threw for 393 yards and five touchdowns while keeping the ball away from the opposing defense with zero interceptions. During the team's five-game win streak, Johnson has thrown for 274 YPG, 14 TD and just 4 INT. The Falcons’ leading receiver, senior WR Shaun Joplin (822 rec. yards, 3 TD), had only one catch for 15 yards in the last game, but all three of his 100-yard receiving efforts this year all came on the road. Freshman WR Ronnie Moore (535 rec. yards, 7 TD) had only 229 yards over the team's first 10 games, but in his past two contests, he has exploded for 306 receiving yards and four touchdowns. HB Travis Greene led the running attack with 1,555 yards on 6.0 YPC and 13 total touchdowns (11 rushing). He has a 10-game streak of rushing for at least 95 yards, and has scored a touchdown in each of the past four contests. The real strength of this team is the defense that is allowing only 14.8 PPG to their opponents (5th in the nation), while being led by senior DT Ted Ouellet who has 4.5 sacks over the past five games. The Falcons are on the field for just 25:44, which has helped them limit opposing passers to 166 YPG and 5.4 YPA on 54.7% completions.

No. 23 NIU faces Utah State Thursday in San Diego
by Mark Kern

Poinsettia Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 57.5

Jordan Lynch closes out his excellent career Thursday when he leads No. 24 Northern Illinois against a very stingy Utah State defense at the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.

The Huskies (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) appeared to be on their way to another BCS bowl appearance before falling to underdog Bowling Green 47-27 in the MAC championship. Senior QB Jordan Lynch was a Heisman Trophy finalist, finishing the regular season with 2,676 passing yards, 23 TD and 7 INT, while also rushing for 1,881 yards (6.9 YPC) and 22 touchdowns. Northern Illinois is on quite an impressive run, going 33-3 SU in its past 36 games, and its offense has been terrific all season (41.6 PPG, 9th in FBS), but will face a very difficult defense in the Aggies. When star QB Chuckie Keeton went down with a knee injury, Utah State appeared to be in jeopardy of missing a bowl game. However, the defense continued to play terrific, as they rank seventh in the country in scoring defense with just 17.3 PPG allowed. Freshman QB Darell Garretson (1,325 pass yards, 7.4 YPA, 9 TD, 5 INT) has stepped into the quarterback position admirably, but he struggled in the team's 24-17 loss in the Mountain West championship, completing just 12-of-26 passes for 198 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. The Aggies have been resilient though, going 7-0 ATS in road games after an SU loss in the past three seasons, but the Huskies are 8-1 ATS after allowing 325+ passing yards in their last game in this same timeframe.

Northern Illinois is playing in a bowl game for the sixth straight season and before losing big in last season's Orange Bowl (31-10 to Florida State), the Huskies won two straight bowls by a combined score of 78 to 37. They have been able to score at least 27 points in all 13 games this season, thanks to the nation's fourth-ranked rushing attack (312.5 YPG). While QB Jordan Lynch gets all of the hype for his 351 total YPG of offense (4th in nation), and 89 total touchdowns in the past two seasons, he is not the only Huskies player that is able to run the ball well. Junior RB Cameron Stingily (1,081 rush yards, 5.6 YPC, 9 TD) is able to take over the game on the ground as well, rushing for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a win against Kent State early in the season. With so many defenses focusing on Lynch, Stingily is a great complement with his power rushing ability. When Lynch looks to pass, junior WR Tommylee Lewis (80 catches, 660 yards, 3 TD) is his main target to move the chains, while junior WR Da'Ron Brown (689 rec. yards, 9 TD) is the big-play threat with 16.4 yards per reception. While the offense has been terrific, the defense has had its struggles, ranking 55th FBS in scoring defense (25.4 PPG) and giving up 424 total YPG. Northern Illinois allows 150 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, while giving up 274 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Senior S Jimmie Ward is the leader of the defense, tallying 89 tackles and six interceptions. This defensive unit may be a key, as the Huskies may struggle to score against the Aggies.

Utah State's defense has been great all season, especially on the ground where it allows a mere 107 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC. In the past three games, opponents have scored just 10.3 PPG on 278 total YPG (3.8 yards per play), a stretch that includes high-powered Fresno State and a Colorado State team that just scored 48 points in the New Mexico Bowl. Sophomore LB Kyler Fackrell has been the leader, compiling 77 tackles, five sacks and a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown. While the defense has been the calling card for Utah State, the offense does have some very talented players. The Aggies rank 45th in the nation in scoring (32.6 PPG) and 53rd in passing (242 YPG). Those are not the most impressive numbers, but they could have been much worse if freshman QB Darell Garretson hadn't filled in so nicely for star QB Chuckie Keeton who got hurt in the sixth game of the season. Utah State could be without top WR Travis Reynolds (team-high 832 receiving yards), who has missed the past two games with a knee injury and is questionable for Thursday. But the Aggies have great depth in the receiving corps as 11 of Reynolds' teammates have scored a receiving touchdown this season. Senior RB Joey DeMartino (1,078 rush yards, 5.4 YPC, 12 TD) leads the ground attack with six 100-yard rushing games, but he struggled against Fresno State with only 54 yards on 18 carries.