Cnotes NFL Playoff POD'S, STAT'S NEWS PLAYOFF GOY !!

December 29, 2013


Saturday, Jan. 4

AFC - (5) Kansas City at (4) Indianapolis (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Colts -2 ½, 46

Indianapolis Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
Kansas City Road Record: 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Colts have won five of the last six matchups against the Chiefs, which includes a 23-7 road victory in Week 16 as a 7 ½-point underdog. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

Playoff Notes: Indianapolis has dropped its last two playoff games, the most recent coming last season at Baltimore (9-24) in the Wild Card Round. Kansas City is 0-7 both SU and ATS in its last seven playoff appearances. The last postseason win for the Chiefs came in 1994.

NFC - (6) New Orleans at (3) Philadelphia (NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Eagles -2 ½, 55

Philadelphia Home Record: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS
New Orleans Road Record: 3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Saints have won four of the last five meetings against the Eagles. The last encounter took place from the Superdome as New Orleans captured a 28-13 win.

Playoff Notes: The Eagles have dropped their last three playoff appearances both SU and ATS, with the last defeat coming in 2011. Since QB Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton joined forces in 2006, the Saints have gone 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in the playoffs. All three of the losses came on the road and New Orleans gave up 39, 41 and 46 points in those defeats, which helped the ‘over’ go 3-0.

Sunday, Jan. 5

AFC - (6) San Diego at (3) Cincinnati (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Bengals -6 ½, 47

Cincinnati Home Record: 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS
San Diego Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: Cincinnati defeated San Diego 17-10 as a 2 ½-point road favorite in Week 13. Including this win, the Bengals have won their last three affairs against San Diego.

Playoff Notes: The Bengals are 0-5 both SU and ATS in their last five playoff games and four of those losses came by double digits. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991. The Chargers have dropped their last two playoff games, falling to the Jets 17-14 in 2010 at home in on the road in 2009 to the Steelers, 35-24.

NFC - (5) San Francisco at (4) Green Bay (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: 49ers -1, 49 ½

Green Bay Home Record: 4-3-1 SU, 3-5 ATS
San Francisco Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The 49ers have won and covered three straight encounters against the Packers, which includes a 34-28 victory in Week 1 as a five-point home favorite. In last year’s playoffs, San Francisco ran past Green 45-31 as a three-point home favorite. The ‘over’ has easily cashed in all three games during the 49ers’ winning streak.

Playoff Notes: In the last two seasons under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 3-2 both SU and ATS in the playoffs. The Packers have gone 5-3 in the playoffs with QB Aaron Rodgers under center. Surprisingly, Rodgers has only started two playoff games from Lambeau Field and he’s gone 1-1.

NFL betting: 49ers, Colts, Eagles, Bengals open as faves


With the Week 17 finale between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys complete, all of the lines for the opening round of the NFL playoffs have hit the board at wagering outlets.

Despite a valiant effort from backup QB Kyle Orton, the Dallas Cowboys will miss out on the postseason as the Eagles triumphed 24-22. Philadelphia will host the New Orleans Saints in the opening round of the playoffs.

The Eagles have opened as 2.5-point home faves with the total opening at 55.

In the other NFC matchup, the San Francisco 49ers are currently 2.5-point faves as they travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The total is currently 49.5.

In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are 7.5-point faves as they host the San Diego Chargers. The total for this game is currently 47.

Finally, the other AFC matchup pits the Indianpolis Colts against the Kansas City Chiefs with the home team Colts as 2-point faves with a total of 47.

Top 5 NFL Trends


KC
IND Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 Saturday games.


NO
PHI Under is 6-0-1 in Eagles last 7 playoff home games.


NO
PHI Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games on grass.


NO
PHI Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.


KC
IND Over is 4-0-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

Injury Report:


Carolina Panthers

Steve Smith WR Ques Jan 12 - Knee - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Colin Cole DT Ques Jan 12 - Calf - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Chris Scott G Out indefinitely - Knee - 12/15/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jonathan Stewart RB Out indefinitely - Knee - 12/15/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
James Dockery CB I-R - Shoulder - 11/15/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jeff Byers C I-R - Foot - 11/05/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Amini Silatolu G I-R - Knee - 10/16/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Charles Godfrey S I-R - Achilles - 09/17/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Garry Williams T I-R - Knee - 09/11/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Cincinnati Bengals

Devon Still DT Ques Jan 5 - Back - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jermaine Gresham TE Ques Jan 5 - Hamstring - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Tyler Eifert TE Ques Jan 5 - Shoulder - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Alex Smith TE Ques Jan 5 - Wrist - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Terence Newman CB Out indefinitely - Knee - 12/22/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Zac Robinson QB Out indefinitely - Elbow - 09/04/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Kevin Huber P I-R - Mouth - 12/17/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Clint Boling G I-R - Knee - 12/03/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Geno Atkins DT I-R - Knee - 11/04/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Taylor Mays S I-R - Shoulder - 10/30/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Leon Hall CB I-R - Achilles - 10/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Robert Geathers DE I-R - Elbow - 09/18/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Emmanuel Lamur LB I-R - Shoulder - 09/04/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sean Porter LB I-R - Shoulder - 09/04/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Brandon Joiner LB I-R - Undisclosed - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Denver Broncos

Wes Welker WR Prob Jan 12 - Concussion - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Derek Wolfe DE Ques Jan 12 - Illness - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Kayvon Webster CB Ques Jan 12 - Thumb - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Steve Vallos C Ques Jan 12 - Concussion - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Rahim Moore S Out Jan 11 - Leg - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Von Miller LB out for season - Knee - 12/23/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Kevin Vickerson DT I-R - Hip - 11/26/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Stewart Bradley LB I-R - Wrist - 10/27/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Dan Koppen C I-R - Leg - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Ryan Clady T I-R - Foot - 09/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Green Bay Packers

Clay Matthews LB Ques Jan 5 - Thumb - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Brad Jones LB Ques Jan 5 - Ankle - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Johnny Jolly DT I-R - Shoulder - 12/22/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Brandon Bostick TE I-R - Foot - 12/22/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Johnathan Franklin RB I-R - Concussion - 11/28/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Casey Hayward CB I-R - Hamstring - 11/24/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
James Nixon CB I-R - Knee - 11/24/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sederrik Cunningham WR I-R - Wrist - 11/24/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Seneca Wallace QB I-R - Groin - 11/13/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jermichael Finley TE I-R - Neck - 11/05/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sam Barrington LB I-R - Hamstring - 11/05/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Greg Van Roten G I-R - Foot - 10/15/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Bryan Bulaga T I-R - Knee - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Rob Francois LB I-R - Achilles - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
DuJuan Harris RB I-R - Knee - 08/28/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Indianapolis Colts

Ricky Jean-Francois DT Ques Jan 4 - Foot - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Daniel Adongo LB Ques Jan 4 - Hamstring - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sergio Brown S Ques Jan 4 - Groin - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Joe Reitz G Ques Jan 4 - Concussion - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Cory Redding DE Ques Jan 4 - Shoulder - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Mike McGlynn G Ques Jan4 - Elbow - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Vontae Davis CB Ques Jan 4 - Groin - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Montori Hughes DT out for season - Knee - 12/24/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Pat Angerer LB I-R - Knee - 12/18/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Chris Rainey RB I-R - Leg - 12/10/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Delano Howell S I-R - Foot - 11/27/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Reggie Wayne WR I-R - Knee - 10/22/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Ahmad Bradshaw RB I-R - Neck - 10/08/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Dwayne Allen TE I-R - Hip - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Donald Thomas G I-R - Quadricep - 09/17/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Vick Ballard RB I-R - Knee - 09/13/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Justin Hickman LB I-R - Foot - 09/01/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Lawrence Sidbury LB I-R - Shoulder - 08/27/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Kansas City Chiefs
ATS* O/U*
Player Status/Updated
Current

Season

Current

Season
Branden Albert T Ques Jan 4 - Knee - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Justin Houston LB Ques Jan 4 - Elbow - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sanders Commings DB I-R - Shoulder - 12/01/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Travis Kelce TE I-R - Knee - 10/13/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0



New England Patriots

Josh Boyce WR Ques Jan 11 - Foot - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Devin McCourty DB Ques Jan 11 - Concussion - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Alfonzo Dennard CB Ques Jan 11 - Knee - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Mark Harrison WR Out indefinitely - Foot - 09/04/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Armond Armstead DE Out indefinitely - Illness - 07/30/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Rob Gronkowski TE I-R - Knee - 12/09/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Tommy Kelly DL I-R - Knee - 11/03/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sebastian Vollmer T I-R - Leg - 10/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jerod Mayo LB I-R - Pectoral - 10/16/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Vince Wilfork DL I-R - Foot - 10/03/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Markus Zusevics OL I-R - Arm - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
T.J. Moe WR I-R - Achilles - 09/01/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Adrian Wilson S I-R - Hamstring - 08/31/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0



New Orleans Saints

Keyunta Dawson DE Ques Jan 4 - Ankle - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Travaris Cadet RB Ques Jan 4 - Personal - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jabari Greer CB Out indefinitely - Knee - 12/16/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Kenny Vaccaro S I-R - Ankle - 12/25/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Victor Butler LB I-R - Knee - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Joseph Morgan WR I-R - Knee - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Kenyon Coleman DE I-R - Pectoral - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Will Smith LB I-R - Knee - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Patrick Robinson CB I-R - Leg - 09/18/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Philadelphia Eagles

Colt Anderson S Ques Jan 4 - Knee - 12/30/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Julian Vandervelde C Ques Jan 4 - Back - 12/30/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Earl Wolff S Ques Jan 4 - Knee - 12/30/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jeremy Maclin WR I-R - Knee - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jason Phillips LB I-R - Knee - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Arrelious Benn WR I-R - Knee - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


San Diego Chargers

Brandon Taylor S out for season - Knee - 12/20/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
John Phillips TE I-R - Knee - 12/23/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Johnny Patrick DB I-R - Ankle - 12/18/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Larry English LB I-R - Bicep - 11/14/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Mike Harris T I-R - Ankle - 10/09/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Malcom Floyd WR I-R - Neck - 10/01/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Dwight Freeney LB I-R - Quadricep - 10/01/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Danario Alexander WR I-R - Knee - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Steve Williams CB I-R - Pectoral - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jonas Mouton LB I-R - Knee - 09/02/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0



San Francisco 49ers

Jonathan Baldwin WR Ques Jan 5 - Shoulder - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Carlos Rogers CB Ques Jan 5 - Hamstring - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Bruce Miller FB Out indefinitely - Arm - 12/18/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Mario Manningham WR out for season - Knee - 12/27/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Cornellius Carradine DT I-R - Knee - 12/12/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Marcus Lattimore RB I-R - Knee - 12/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Chris Culliver CB I-R - Knee - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Ian Williams NT I-R - Ankle - 10/07/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0



Seattle Seahawks

Percy Harvin WR Out indefinitely - Hip - 12/29/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Tharold Simon CB out for season - Foot - 12/13/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
K.J. Wright LB Out indefinitely - Foot - 12/09/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Brandon Browner CB Out indefinitely - Suspension - 11/26/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Greg Scruggs DE Out indefinitely - Knee - 09/05/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jeron Johnson S I-R - Hamstring - 12/12/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Sidney Rice WR I-R - Knee - 10/30/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Spencer Ware FB I-R - Ankle - 10/22/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Jesse Williams DT I-R - Knee - 08/27/13 notes 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

NFL weather report: An early look at Wild Card Weekend weather

Weather could play a role in three of the four NFL Wild Card Weekend games, with cold, rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

Here’s a look at the early forecast for Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Green Bay.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

The early forecast for Philadelphia calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 20s with winds blowing SSW at 6mph from corner to corner. The Eagles have won four straight at home since the weather turned cold while the Saints have struggled in outdoor venues and average only 17.8 points per road game compared to an average of 34 points at home.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46)

The Chargers could take on the cold Ohio winter in Cincinnati Sunday. The extended forecast calls for a 46 percent chance of snow and rain with winds blowing SSW at 7 mph, cooling gametime temperatures in to mid 30s. The Bengals are a perfect 8-0 ATS at home while the Chargers 4-3-1 ATS on the road this season.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 48.5)

The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field will make an appearance during the Wild Card Weekend, with temperatures in Green Bay expected to plummet into the low teens for this matchup. The forecast is also calling for 25 percent chance of snow and winds blowing NNW at 5 mph. The Packers were just 3-5 ATS as hosts while the Niners boast a 7-1 ATS mark on the road.

NFL Opening Line Report: Wild Card Weekend odds


A wild Week 17 made for an even wilder Wild Card Weekend in the NFL. That’s a whole lotta “wild”.

Those furious finishes have oddsmakers carefully plotting out the spreads and totals for the first four games of the NFL postseason. We talk with Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, about the opening odds for the NFL Wild Card Weekend matchups.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

Indianapolis rolled into the postseason with three-straight wins, including a 23-7 victory over the Chiefs. Kansas City, on the other hand, went 2-5 down the stretch including a narrow loss to San Diego with all its starters in Nike sideline gear Sunday.

“I don’t think resting starters is a bad thing,” says Korner. “At this point in the season, one game won’t ruin momentum or slow down players from clicking. This line is based on the Colts current play. Indianapolis has shown very well recently and they’re coming on strong. We really like this number.”

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Football bettors should keep an eye on the weather for Saturday’s game at Lincoln Financial Field. The early forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 20s, as of Monday morning. The Saints’ road woes are well documented – going 1-7 ATS away from New Orleans – and is the reason why the Eagles are favorites.

“This being an away game is the biggest factor here,” says Korner. “Philadelphia has the momentum going into this game but this being outdoors and with the possible elements, is keeping this spread from being on the New Orleans side.”

Korner says the weather could have an impact on not only the total but could give the Eagles the edge if the forecast does turn nasty.

“The Saints love to air it out while the Eagles are built more for the run,” he says. “If the weather turns inclement, then it’s defiantly conducive to what Philadelphia wants to do.”

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46)

Korner and his stable of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Bengals -6 for this Sunday game. However, books have upped that number as high as a touchdown with money coming in on the home side.

“We thought we’d keep it lower, being a competitive playoff game,” Korner says. “But that’s been driven up. I think anyone that wants to bet San Diego should wait it out and see if this spread goes higher to 7.5.”

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 48.5)

The Packers got into the postseason with a thrilling win over Chicago. Green Bay opened as a home underdog versus the San Francisco team picking up steam at the right time. The Niners have won six straight, going 4-2 ATS in that span.

“The difference here is the San Francisco defense,” says Korner. “This could be a letdown for Green Bay coming off that big win. Weather will be a factor in this one too.”

Korner says the total could see major adjustments depending on the forecast at Lambeau Field. There is a 25 percent chance of snow and temperatures are expected to dip into the low teens – a far cry from the warm weather in the Bay Area.

“The total is a little high for this one,” he says. “However, a few weeks back when we had all that sloppy weather, all the games went Over. I think that is still in the minds of bettors as we’re looking at weather playing a possible role in three of the four playoff games.”

Chargers live Super Bowl long shots if amazing trend continues


If you’re looking for a Super Bowl long shot to bet this NFL postseason, recent history points to the San Diego Chargers.

The last four Super Bowl winners have been featured in the Philadelphia Eagles’ home opener - Baltimore, New York, Green Bay and New Orleans – a game the Chargers won 33-30 on Sept. 15.

San Diego is currently a 40/1 long shot to win Super Bowl XLVIII – the biggest odds on the NFL futures board – the exact same price it opened the season at. The Chargers are 17/1 underdogs to win the AFC Championship.

The Bolts made the postseason cut with an overtime win over Kansas City in Week 17, getting help from losses to Miami and Baltimore, and face Cincinnati as a touchdown road underdog in the AFC Wild Card game.

San Diego finished the season 9-7 SU and 9-6-1 ATS, making the playoffs with four straight wins (3-1 ATS) to close out the regular season.

Seahawks, Broncos favorites to win Super Bowl XLVIII


The NFL playoff picture is complete and oddsmakers haven’t wasted any time pricing out the favorites to win Super Bowl XLVIII.

Here’s a look at the updated futures to win the big game, as well as the conference championships, courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas:

SUPER BOWL

PATRIOTS 7/1
49ERS 7/1
BRONCOS 5-2
PACKERS 16/1
SEAHAWKS 2/1
SAINTS 25/1
BENGALS 16/1
CHARGERS 40/1
COLTS 25/1
PANTHERS 10/1
EAGLES 25/1
CHIEFS 30/1

2014 NFC CONFERENCE

49ERS 7-2
PACKERS 8/1
SEAHAWKS 4-5
SAINTS 12/1
PANTHERS 5/1
EAGLES 12/1

2014 AFC CONFERENCE

PATRIOTS 3/1
BRONCOS 5-8
BENGALS 6/1
CHARGERS 17/1
COLTS 11/1
CHIEFS 13/1

NFL line watch: Bolts bettors should wait to charge


Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

What you see is what you get with the early number in this one. Philadelphia opened up as a 2.5-point favorite and, with pretty much even wagering, that’s likely to hold firm. So if you’re waiting for this one to tip a half point either way, you most likely are out of luck.

As to the game, the spread seems to be too thin by about a point - especially considering that the Saints have not played one game this season in cold weather, which is invading the Northeast this week.

Did you think on Halloween night that the Eagles had a ghost of a chance of going 7-1 on the back nine? Only a defensive letdown in Minnesota sits between Philly and an eight-game winning streak. Andy Reid might still be in town if he had had more confidence in Nick Foles and less in Michael Vick.

Spread to wait on

San Diego Chargers (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals

Say what you want about Andy Dalton, but the kid is seventh in the league in passing yards and the Bengals have put up nearly 27 points a game (more than Seattle, San Francisco and Indianapolis) this season.

Just about a month ago the Bengals headed west and picked up a nice 17-10 win over San Diego in a defensive battle that was primarily played out between the 40 yard lines.

There has been decent early money on Cincinnati, even with the substantial line, but if the money gets serious come close to game time, they might be forced to either throw another half point more on the number.

San Diego backers, who like the way the Chargers have played on the road this season (wins at Denver, Kansas City and Philadelphia give the Bolts some significant street cred), could then swarm.

Total to watch

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (46.5)

You can build a legitimate case for this one going Under based on the game that these teams played in Kansas City a little more than a week ago. The Colts’ defense put the hammer down on Kansas City’s offense, holding the Chiefs to just about 300 total yards.

But the Chiefs were crushed by turnovers in that game. Three fumbles were lost, and K.C. recovered three more of its own bobbles. Alex Smith also threw an interception.

All that won’t happen the second time around. The Chiefs should be fresh (most starters sat out the regular season finale) and figure to move the ball. Adjustments will be made and there should be some points scored in this one.

Wild Card Angles

January 1, 2014


NFL Wild Card Round... All In

Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends…

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia

Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati

Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay

Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as underdogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

Chiefs WR Bowe cleared to play at Colts

January 1, 2014

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe was cleared to play in Saturday's wild-card playoff game against Indianapolis after sustaining a concussion, though the status of linebacker Tamba Hali and right tackle Eric Fisher remains uncertain.

Fisher hurt his groin near the end of Tuesday's practice, while Hali has been dealing with some swelling in his knee. Neither of them participated fully in Wednesday's workout.

Bowe sustained his concussion in a loss to the Colts two weeks ago at Arrowhead Stadium. He was hit in the neck area late in the game by LaRon Landry, and even though he finished the game and even attended a practice the next week, Bowe said he never quite felt right.

He was diagnosed with a concussion and sat out last week's overtime loss at San Diego, when the Chiefs - assured of their playoff seed - chose to rest many of their starters.

''I'm fine, you know. Just had a little minor headache,'' Bowe said Wednesday. ''I didn't feel as bad as some guys felt. I just felt tired. So I got some rest and I'm ready to go.''

Bowe, who signed a $56 million, five-year deal in the offseason, is second on the team behind running back Jamaal Charles with 57 catches for 673 yards and five touchdowns this season.

''I'm just ready to go,'' he said. ''Big-time players want to make big-time plays in big-time games. These are the games you have to show up. Everything on the line.''

While the Chiefs had not yet ruled out Fisher for Saturday's game, it appeared Donald Stephenson was preparing to start for the seventh time this season.

Stephenson made three starts while Fisher was dealing with a shoulder injury, and has started the last four games at right tackle while Branden Albert was out with a hyperextended knee.

''That was my goal this offseason, just be one of the five best blockers,'' Stephenson said. ''I worked on that and I treated myself as if I was a starter and it's paid off for me.''

Albert will be back in the lineup for the first time since Dec. 1, when he hurt his knee against the Broncos. He said he could have played last week, but Chiefs coach Andy Reid decided it wasn't worth risking another injury simply to knock off some rust.

''Whatever coach decided, I was with,'' Albert said. ''I told him and told the rest of the team that I was going to prepare to play. Now it's time to move on from that. I'm playing.''

So is linebacker Justin Houston, who missed the final five games of the regular season after dislocating his right elbow. He's been fitted for the same kind of brace that the Texans' J.J. Watt wears to stabilize his elbow and said he'll be ready to go against Indianapolis.

''The first two days it took some time to get used to. After that, it was OK. I've got all my movement back,'' Houston said. ''It was very frustrating, but as long as we were winning, I was happy with it. I know everybody has their own personal goals, but the team goals are more important and we're still on that journey.''

Broncos WR Welker cleared to play

December 31, 2013


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - Peyton Manning will have all of his wide receivers available for the first time in a month when the Denver Broncos begin their playoff run Jan. 12 in the AFC divisional round.

Coach John Fox said Monday that slot receiver Wes Welker has recovered from his second concussion that kept him out of the Broncos' final three games, saying, ''He has been cleared to play.''

Welker set a career high with 10 touchdown catches in his first season in Denver after six years in New England. He caught 73 passes for 778 yards.

Welker was concussed just before halftime in the Broncos' win over Tennessee on Dec. 8. He also suffered a concussion against Kansas City on Nov. 17 but didn't miss any games.

He returned to practice on a limited basis last week and began working on his timing with Manning.

NFL Wild Card betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds


All odds current as of noon ET, Jan. 2

Saturday, Jan. 4

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

The Colts have been a tough team to figure out all season. After opening the year with four wins in their first five games, they’ve struggled with consistency. That sort of thing tends to happen when you lose No. 1 wideout Reggie Wayne and don’t have any running game to speak of even after trading for Trent Richardson. Still, Indy finished 10-6 against the spread and has character wins over Denver, Seattle, and Kansas City on the resume. Meanwhile, KC has been up and down since starting the year 9-0. Since their Week 10 bye, the Chiefs have just two wins over lowly Washington and Oakland.

Where the action is: This line is holding at -2.5 with about 61 percent of Sports Interaction’s bets coming in on the visiting Kansas City Chiefs.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

We all know the Saints are a much different team away from the Superdome and that’s all anyone wants to talk about right now. They were 8-0 at home but just 3-5 on the road, so that makes sense. These Eagles deserve some attention too though. They have won seven of their last eight games while Nick Foles finished the year with 22 touchdowns and only four interceptions. With two of the most high-profile attacks on display here, we opened with a 55-point total. That has currently dropped to 53.5 points.

Where the action is: Saints bettors are all over this line. New Orleans bettors make up 65 percent of Sports Interaction’s handle as of noon Thursday.

Sunday, Jan. 3

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Home-field advantage looks to be huge in this matchup. The Bengals haven’t lost at Paul Brown Stadium this year and average 42 points in their last five home games. They also finished the season by covering four of their last five pointspreads and are riding a 4-0 streak against the number in their last for meetings with San Diego. The Chargers have shifted to more of a run-heavy attack behind Ryan Mathews, which should help if Mother Nature comes into play.

Where the action is: The current total of 47 is up a half point from the open, but the pointspread is holding firm at -7. About 53 percent of our bettors are currently backing the Bengals at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+3, 47)

The Packers squeaked by the Bears to earn a playoff berth last week, but that didn’t impress many. Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point underdog at home but is already up to +3. The total has dropped two full points since debuting at 49 and weather could be a factor in this matchup as well. The 49ers have won and covered in each of their last four meetings with Green Bay.

Where the action is: The 49ers are this week’s most popular bet with about 71 percent of our action coming in on San Francisco.

NFL mid-week line moves: Wild Card Weekend action report


Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -1, Move: -2.5

Some markets opened the Colts as slight 1-point home favorites while others reacted to the early movement and opened Indianapolis at -2.5. According to Perry, 60 percent of the action is currently riding on the home side, including early money from wiseguys.

“Less than 15 minutes after we opened, we got a sharp bet on Colts -1.5, so moved to current number of -2.5,” says Perry.

The total for this AFC Wild Card Game has come down half a point from 46.5 to 46.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -3, Move: -2.5

The Eagles opened as high as 3-point home favorites over the Saints, who have notoriously been two-faced away from New Orleans. Most books are dealing Philadelphia -2.5 which has drawn solid two-way money as we hit the mid-week mark.

“We don’t anticipate us moving off this number, as we are pretty much split down middle on game,” says Perry. “Fifty-two percent of the money is on the Saints.”

The total for this NFC Wild Card matchup has come down as many as two points at some books, trimmed from 55 to 53 points. The Saints average only 17.4 points on the road and the forecast in Philadelphia is calling for temperatures in the mid 20s and partly cloudy skies.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -7.5, Move: -6.5, Move: -7

This line has been on both sides of the key of a touchdown at some markets, with sharp money influencing the adjustments just minutes after odds opened Sunday night.

“A sharp bet came on the dog about 30 minutes after we opened, so we’re now using Cincy -7,” says Perry. “Sixty percent of the money is on San Diego.”

The total has climbed from 46 to 47 points. The Bolts and Bengals played Under the total of 48.5 points in San Diego during Week 13. Cincinnati was one of the better Over plays at 10-5-1 O/U during the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers – Open: +2.5, Move: +3

The Packers opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and jumped to a field goal at some books, before action pushed the spread back to the opener at some markets. These teams met in Week 1, with San Francisco winning 34-28 as a 5-point favorite. The Niners have covered in three straight meetings with the Packers.

“We got a wiseguy bet on San Francisco about an hour after opening, so we moved to -3,” says Perry. “Looks like this will be our biggest decision on Wild Card Weekend, as 73 percent of the money is on the 49ers. Also, don’t expect us to move off -3, as that is such an important number in regards to betting.”

The total for this NFC Wild Card Game has come down from as high as 49 points to 46.5. Weather in Lambeau Field is expected to be chilly, with temperatures dipping into the mid teens and winds blowing WNW at speeds close to 20 mph.

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Weekend


Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Wild Card Weekend:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

Chiefs’ lack of pass rush vs. Colts’ healthy offensive line

Kansas City’s defense was one of the most feared pass rushes in the NFL, totaling 47 sacks in the regular season – third most in the AFC for an average of three sacks per game. However, over the last three games, the Chiefs pass rush is missing some teeth, registering a total of only four QB kills. Kansas City managed to get to Andrew Luck only once in its 23-7 loss to the Colts at home in Week 16.

Indianapolis has struggled to keep Luck clean this year but is getting bodies back on the offensive line and is as healthy up front as it's been all season. The Colts have watched their QB get sacked just three times in the past three games. That’s allowed Luck to complete 67.27 percent of his passes and connect for four TDs with zero INTs in that span. Indianapolis is picking up the tempo under this renewed protection, running 70.3 plays per game in that three game stretch, compared to its season average of 63.9 plays per game.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham vs. Eagles’ poor pass defense

The Saints’ struggles on the road are well documented. New Orleans musters just over 17 points per road game compared to 34 points at home and finished a dismal 1-7 ATS away from the Big Easy. New Orleans takes on an offense as explosive as its own Saturday and could look to shorten its strikes and chew up the clock, beating up an Eagles defense that allows 289.8 yards passing per game –worst in the NFL.

In order to do so, the Saints will need a hefty dose of All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham, who led the league with 16 touchdown catches and averaged more than 14 yards per reception. According to Yahoo!Sports, Philadelphia has been beaten bad by tight ends in its last two games. Chicago TE Martellus Bennett reeled in five balls for 85 yards in Week 16 and Dallas TE Jason Witten caught 12 passes for 135 yards in the season finale. Graham had 72 yards on eight receptions and a TD in a 28-12 win over the Eagles last November.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Chargers' up-tempo attack vs. Bengals’ turf surface

It’s crazy to think, with all the artificial surfaces around the NFL, that the Chargers will be playing their first game of the season on turf in Cincinnati this weekend. San Diego hasn’t touched a plastic blade of grass all year – including the preseason – with all 10 road games taking place on the real deal. Now, the Bolts hit the fast track at Paul Brown Stadium where the forecast is warming up as gametime inches closer.

San Diego first-year head coach Mike McCoy has preached speed, speed and speed all season, turning up the intensity on both sides of the ball. The Bolts run an average of 66.2 plays per game and have upped that pace in the last three, posting 68.3 plays per outing in that span. The Bengals don’t care for that kind of track meet, allowing opponents to run an average of 58.7 plays over their last three games, and now must slow down a speedy San Diego team getting a boost from the non-slip surface in Cincy.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 47.5)

Niners’ poor pass defense vs. Packers’ resurgence under Rodgers

The 49ers appear to be the hottest team heading into the postseason with six straight wins. However, last year’s NFC champs have a major chink in the armor heading into the Wild Card Weekend. San Francisco, which ranked ninth versus the pass (222.8 yards per game), has been watching opponents go over the top the past two games, allowing a total of 740 passing yards against the Falcons and Cardinals. On top of that, standout CB Carlos Rogers is hobbled by hamstring injury, leaving Eric Wright to shoulder the load in the secondary.

The return of Aaron Rodgers instantly boosts Green Bay back into the Super Bowl conversation. The Packers found balance behind RB Eddie Lacy when Rodgers was sidelined with a broken collarbone and now have a potent two-pronged attack with No. 12 back under center. Rodgers threw for 318 yards in the win-and-in showdown with the Bears and reconnected with deep threat Randall Cobb for the go-ahead score. Cobb’s return also gives the Cheese Heads depth in the passing and special teams gameplan.

Betting NFL dogs? Amazing trend will have you thinking moneylines


If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.

According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.

Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.

In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.

In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.

This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco.

NFL Wild Card Weekend trends: Home teams hitting at just 49.2 percent


Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild Card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

Pro handicappers share sports betting New Year's resolutions


It’s New Year’s resolution time. Some folks want to eat healthier while others plan on going to the gym more often.

They’ll likely continue eating terrible and ignoring the gym, but they do have some sports betting resolutions for 2014. They share those New Year’s resolutions with you before the clock strikes 12:00 on 2013.

Steve Merril – “I plan on focusing more on momentum in all sports. Play on teams that are hot and fade teams that are struggling, until I see a reversal or a change. Do not ask a bad team to break out of a slump and do not expect a hot team to cool off. Wait until I see visual confirmation that something has changed before going against a hot team or starting to back a cold team.”

Jesse Schule – “After a very profitable NHL season at the beginning of 2013, my fans on Facebook and Twitter started calling me ‘Iceman’, a title that I have since embraced. I haven't exactly done a great job living up to my reputation in the first few months of the current hockey season and turning that around is one of my top priorities in the New Year. If December is any indication, all signs point to a strong showing in 2014.”

Teddy Covers – “My New Year's resolution is pretty much the same every year: Pick more winners, Avoid more losers. Until I finish a year at 75 percent or higher across all sports, that's likely to be my New Years' resolution moving forward.”

Art Aronson – “I don't plan to change up too much of anything, other than I want to get more involved in playing Soccer, MMA and other sort of fringe sports. With World Cup 2014 arriving quickly, it's time to sharpen up my skills on the pitch.”

Nick Parsons – “To quit listening to other people's opinions. This is one area I need to strengthen. We all listen to the highlights the next day. We all listen to the talking heads on TV, the internet, Twitter and Facebook. But, as radio talk show host Jim Rome has pointed out many times over the course of his career, no coach, no ex-player, no expert knows sports the way that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas know sports. I'm guilty - as I'm sure we all are - of sometimes getting caught up listening to these people while formulating my final decisions on my selections. That ends in 2014.”

Marc Lawrence – “Quit trying to beat Peyton Manning each week. Finally give up on the Houston Texans. Stop betting on losing teams off a win and instead start betting on winning teams off a loss. Never use favorites with bad defenses. And finally, I will try to figure out why I really need nine e-mail addresses.”

Doc’s Sports – “In pro football, we will look to avoid using teams for two straight weeks. Momentum is less prevalent in the NFL as every player is a pro, so we will try and avoid teams that are coming off a blowout victory in prior week where everything went right. Things will not likely happen like this for the next game, and the odds have likely over-adjusted.”

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Weekend

New Orleans at Philadelphia
The Eagles host the Wild Card round against a New Orleans team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 101-102: Kansas City at Indianapolis (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 132.537; Indianapolis 140.116
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Philadelphia (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Philadelphia 140.086
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 105-106: San Diego at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.817; Cincinnati 137.797
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); Under

Game 107-108: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.597; Green Bay 140.991
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over




NFL
Long Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 4

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) - 1/4/2014, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) - 1/4/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-121 ATS (+23.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 5

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) at CINCINNATI (11 - 5) - 1/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SAN DIEGO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 4) at GREEN BAY (8 - 7 - 1) - 1/5/2014, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 4

Kansas City at Indianapolis, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS in playoff games
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS in home games in games played on turf

New Orleans at Philadelphia, 8:10 ET
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 games
Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field


Sunday, January 5

San Diego at Cincinnati, 1:05 ET
San Diego: 2-11 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents

San Francisco at Green Bay, 4:40 ET
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games




NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 4

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games

8:10 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, January 5

1:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing San Diego

4:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5)—Chiefs won 23-13 (-4.5) at Buffalo in Week 9 in only game this season on artificial turf, when they were outgained 470-210 but scored two defensive TDs to turn tide in game they had no right winning; after starting season 9-0, Chiefs went 2-5 down stretch, losing to Broncos/Chargers twice each. Colts coasted to title in weak division; they beat Denver/Seattle at home, won at Candlestick but also lost 38-8 at home to Rams- go figure. Indy was +10 in turnovers in its last five games; they got bounced from playoffs in this round LY, while Reid/Chiefs combined to go 6-26- now Reid is Coach of Year in KC. Chiefs rested 20 starters last week and still almost KO’d Chargers from playoffs, week after Indy waxed Chiefs 23-7, holding KC to 132 passing yards with +4 turnover ratio (Chiefs were +22 in other 15 games). AFC #4 seed covered five of last seven when favored in this game. Five of last six Chief games, five of last seven Indy home games went over total. Curious to see if sitting 20 starters last week gives Chief players fresher legs.

Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6)—New Orleans has never won a road playoff game (0-5) in franchise history; this year on road, Saints are 3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS, losing four of last five, with losses to also-ran Rams/Jets. NO scored 17 or less points in last four away games, while they averaged 34 ppg in Superdome; they do have edge at QB, with Super Bowl-winner Brees vs first-year starter Foles, who played college ball in desert (Arizona), but has had great year under rookie NFL coach Kelly. Eagles had long home losing streak until they beat Redskins in Week 11; now they’ve won four home games in row, scoring 64 points in second half of last two games at Linc. Philly led NFL in rushing yards which is big in night game in frigid condition; Saints are #19 in rush defense. Iggles were -2 in turnovers during 3-5 start to season; they were +13 during 7-1 run to division title. Saints have to play significantly better here than they have on road all year in order to advance. NFC #4 seed beat #5 seed in this game four of last five years. Six of last seven Saint games stayed under total; the of last four Philly games went over.

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)—Hard to believe, but this is Chargers’ first game on artificial turf this season. Cincy won/covered all eight home games, which is hard to do, even covering last week when they had AFC North wrapped up; Bengals scored 34+ points in each of last five home games- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row but this is their first home playoff tilt since ’09. Lewis has done great job here, but hasn’t won playoff game; he has SoCal team visiting in frigid weather here- this is his best chance to get a postseason win. San Diego was 5-7 after bland 17-10 home loss to Cincy in Week 13, when Bengals gained 250 yards in second half, outrushed Chargers 164-91; Bolts then won last four games, upsetting Broncos on a Thursday night in Denver, beating two also-rans, then getting help from refs late in last week’s OT win over Chief team that sat 20 of 22 starters. San Diego has edge in QB, always a help. AFC #3 seed is 8-4 in this game over last 12 years. Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total; five of Chargers’ last seven road games stayed under.

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)—Since 2001, road teams favored in this round are 7-3 vs spread. Tough for California team to come east and play in bitter cold, which is forecast for this game. Rodgers returned after 8-week absence last week and led magical last-minute comeback over rival Bears to win division; Green Bay was 2-5-1 in his absence, with both wins by a point, including win at Dallas when they trailed 26-3 at half. 49ers won last five games to get here; they scored 9 or less points in three of four losses, not scoring a TD in second half in three of those games. SF was -6 in turnovers in their four losses, +18 in wins. Niners are 6-2 on road, 5-0 as home favorites this season. Green Bay is 6-2 this season when Rodgers starts, 3-0 at home, winning by 18-13-18 points. Pack opened season with 34-28 (+4) loss at Candlestick, when Niners gained 309 yards in second half, pulling away from 14-all halftime tie. #4 seed in NFC beat 5-seed four of last five years. This is 7th time these have met in playoffs since ’95. 49ers are better team from best division in NFL, but elements work against them here.