Updated Vegas Handicappers' NFL Power Rankings

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[h=1]Updated NFL Vegas Rankings[/h][h=3]Vegas handicappers' power ratings for teams going into the NFL's playoffs[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
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LAS VEGAS -- There's just no separating the NFL's top two teams -- the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks --- and maybe we'll just have to wait until Super Sunday.
The Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll has them still tied for the top spot in our power ratings, just as we did before the stretch run of the regular season. Since that poll Dec. 10, both teams have lost at home -- the Broncos to the San Diego Chargers 27-20 in Week 15 and the Seahawks to the Arizona Cardinals 17-10 in Week 16 -- but have otherwise taken care of business in wrapping up home field in their respective conferences.
These numbers -- compiled from the personal power ratings of our panel of handicappers -- Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- are meant to be a current snapshot of the relative strength of all the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, and they can be used to compare to the lines being offered on upcoming games (with adjustments made for home-field advantage). So that would mean that we project a potential Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl as a pick 'em affair.
The LVH SuperBook weighs in by making the Seahawks the 2-1 Super Bowl favorite with the Broncos at 5-2. The San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots are next on their list at 7-1 even though the 49ers have to play in the wild-card round while the other top teams have a first-round bye. That makes sense to our panel as we have them rated as the third-strongest team in the league despite finishing second in their division.
Here's the complete poll with the 12 remaining playoff teams. You can see that we have a difference of a mere touchdown between the top teams and the bottom team, the Chargers.
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (2013-14 playoffs)[/h]
RankTeam (SU record)SB OddsDec. 10Dec. 31
T-1Seattle Seahawks (13-3)2-12626
T-1Denver Broncos (13-3)5-22626
3San Francisco 49ers (12-4)7-12424
T-4New England Patriots (12-4)7-122.523
T-4Carolina Panthers (12-4)10-122.523
T-6New Orleans Saints (11-5)25-12422.5
T-6Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)16-12222.5
8Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)25-120.521.5
9Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)16-116*20.5
T-10Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)30-12019.5
T-10Indianapolis Colts (11-5)25-11819.5
12San Diego Chargers (9-7)40-11819

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Note: Super Bowl odds are Super Bowl futures from LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas.
*without Aaron Rodgers


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[h=3]Comparing our ratings with wild-card lines[/h]
Here's a look at the four wild-card games this weekend and how our power ratings compare. The deeper into the season we get, the tighter the numbers become as well:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts minus-2.5: We have these two teams rated exactly the same at 19.5 apiece, so giving the Colts the standard 2.5 points for home-field advantage puts this right at the consensus line of Colts minus-2.5.
Power rating pick: Pass.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles minus-2.5: On the raw numbers, we have the Saints rated one point over the Eagles. With home field factored in, that makes the Eagles favored but by not quite as much as the 2.5 points being offered as of Tuesday.
Power rating pick: Slightly on Saints plus-2.5.

Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals minus-7: The power ratings have the Bengals 3.5 points better than the Chargers. Even if you give the Bengals three points for home-field advantage, it comes out to just under a touchdown, though you could argue that the Bengals might even warrant 3.5 points, as they're 8-0 SU and ATS at home this season.

Power rating pick: Slightly on Chargers plus-7.

49ers minus-3 at Green Bay Packers: The raw numbers have the 49ers as four points better than the Packers, so we certainly agree that they should be favored even at Lambeau Field. But the move to the 49ers favored by a full field goal looks a little too much.

Power rating pick: Packers plus-3, pass at 2.5.

Again, these are comparing our composite power ratings with the current lines as of Tuesday morning. A breakdown of the games will be posted in my "Tuley's Take" column on Thursday. See you next year.
 

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