AK Bandito's Wild Card Picks

First, I want to wish you all a Happy New Year...I put these out on my radio show yesterday, figured I'd share here. Lines may have changed since then...BOL to all...

[FONT=&quot]AK Bandito’s NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT]Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2 ½)[FONT=&quot] on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2014 at 4:35pm ET on NBC. [/FONT]


[FONT=&quot] Being Andrew Luck’s second career Playoff game, I expect him to have some early jitters. That’s normal for a young kid. The big difference between Andrew Luck this year and as a rookie is he isn’t committing sloppy turnovers and hurting his team by trying to do too much. He threw 23 TD’s against 9 INT’s, losing 2 fumbles this season; a vast improvement over his rookie campaign in which he tossed the same amount of TD’s but turned the ball over 24 times. We saw those nerves translate into turnovers in last year’s first round exit to the Ravens, 24-9, when the rookie threw a pick and lost a fumble.

The Chiefs started out (9-0) but have stumbled down the stretch, going 2 and 5, including a Week 16 loss to these same Colts in Arrowhead, 23-6. Actually, when you think about it, the only above-.500 team Kansas City beat all season was Philadelphia during Andy Reid’s emotional return to Philly in Week 3. This was a week before Nick Foles era began (Commonly referred to as ‘’1BF’ or ‘1 Week before Foles’). If you don’t believe me, look at their schedule. I’m not making this shit up. I couldn’t make this shit up if I tried. Their win column is littered with opponents like Jacksonville, the NY Giants, Dallas, Tennessee, Oakland twice, Houston, Cleveland, Washington and Buffalo. The worst part is they barely beat some of those teams. Playoff time is never the right time to stumble, especially when you are the softest team in the post season.

The Colts are a team that has beaten Denver and Seattle at home and destroyed San Fran on the road. They’ve been tough at Lucas Oil Stadium, going (6-2) during the 2013 regular season. Their only concern is a weak running game, the one true advantage the Chiefs have over them in this game. But still, Andrew Luck is playing his best football of his career right now and he should be able to throw on KC’s secondary all game. I believe the second year star gets it done in his second career NFL Playoff game provided he can shake the nerves early on, not try to do too much and just be a game manager. To me, ‘2’ is the magical number. If Luck keeps the turnovers under 2, the Colts cruise. Two or more, things could get hairy for the home team.
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Prediction[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: [/FONT]Indianapolis 27 Kansas City 17[FONT=&quot].[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Note:Weather projects to be nice, partly cloudy, a high of 35 degree and 10% chance of precipitation.Winds out of the SSW at 14 MPH.[/FONT]


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New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2 ½)[FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot]on Saturday, Jan. 4[SUP]th[/SUP] at 8:10pm ET on NBC.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] Let’s face, Chip Kelly has this team looking like legit Super Bowl Contenders. After a (1-4) start, this team looked destined for a losing season until Nick Foles took the reins over from the injured and inefficient Michael Vick – never letting go –as the Birds won 9 of their last 12. Folesey ended his 2013 campaign with 27 passing TD’s, only 2 INT’s and rushed for 3 scores. LeSean ‘Shady’ McCoy was the NFL’s best back this year with over 2100 all-purpose yards and 11 TD’s, Riley Cooper rebounded from some off-season controversy to post a career season of 835 yards and 8 TD’s and perennial underachiever DeSean Jackson was huge with 1332 receiving yards and 9 TD’s. That 54-11 white-washing of the Bears in Week 16 illustrated just how dangerous this team can be, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
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[FONT=&quot] You can never count out that juggernaut of an offense led by Drew Brees (39 TD, 12 INT’s). The issue is which Saints team is going to show up? The team that started out (9-2) and beat the #2 seeded Panthers soundly 31-13 or the team that finished the season losing 3 out or their last 5 and was utterly humiliated by the Rams…yes, the Rams, 27-16, in a game that really wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate? Like the Eagles, the Saints got so many weapons on offense, Jimmy Graham (1215 yards/ 16 TD’s) – the top TE in the NFL and by a large margin, a full slew of talented wide outs like Marques Colston (75 grabs for 943/ 5) and up-and-coming rookie Kenny Stills (641/ 5). Not to mention, speedy running back Darren Sproles is lethal coming out of the backfield, catching 71 passes this season. I give the Eagles a clear-cut advantage on the ground with McCoy (The Saints gave up 111 YPG on the ground so expect Shady to get his numbers) but other than that, these offenses match up very well. To me, the difference in the game will rest in whose defense can make that ever-important stop when they need it most. [/FONT]
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[/FONT][FONT=&quot]With that last point being said, the Saints defense ranked 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in total yards allowed, at 305.7. The Eagles ranked 29[SUP]th[/SUP] with 394.2 YPG and ranked DEAD LAST in pass defense. I think this disparity in yards allowed, especially in the pass defense department, cannot be overlooked when you got two explosive offenses that can normally score at will against marginal defenses. It should also be noted the Saints D only allowed 19 PPG, whereas the Eagles allowed close to 24 PPG. I feel the Saints stand a better chance of getting that one crucial late-game stop than the Philly does.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Prediction[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: UPSET ALERT: [/FONT]New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 23[FONT=&quot]. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]NOTE: Weather in Philadelphia for Saturday looks decent, cloudy, temperature expected to be about 37 degrees at game time, winds out of the SW at 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 10%.[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]


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San Diego at Cincinnati (-7)[FONT=&quot] on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2014 at 1:05pm ET on CBS.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] I could see this weekend’s biggest underdog winning outright – I really could. Phillip Rivers is having arguably his best season, tossing 32 TD’s and 11 INT’s. He hasn’t been the mistake-prone Rivers we’ve been accustomed to over the past few years. Ryan Matthews has turned it up 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half and has surpassed the 100-yard mark in 3 of his past 4 games, finding the end zone three times. Rookie of the Year candidate Keenan Allen posted a 1000 yard/ 8 TD rookie campaign. Even ‘Old Man’ Gates had a resurgent season. These guys have proven that they can win big road games by beating both Denver and Kansas City. This team should not be overlooked, in light of their pedestrian (9-7) record. But the argument, especially from bitter Steelers fans, is that they don’t deserve to be here. If not for a missed FG, and a blown no-call by the officials, the Chargers would not be here. That is fact. However, it is what it is and one can’t turn a blind eye to the fact that San Diego closed out the season by winning 5 of their last 6.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] The only issue for the Chargers is that they playing on the road and facing an opportunistic defense which ranked #1 in the AFC in yards allowed per game at 305.5 and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in interceptions with 20. Nothing else about Cincinnati except this stout defense blows my socks off. ‘Ginger’ Andy Dalton - who had 23 turnovers in 2013 - can be outright awful at times. He either throws 3 TD’s and no picks or the exact reciprocal. Benjarvis Green-Ellis (3.4 YPC) looks like he is running in place most of the time and rookie Giovanni Bernard, while showing flashes of brilliance, looks like he is 1 foot 5 and is simply too small to be an every-down back. The lone offensive bright spot is obviously wide out A.J. Green, who had over 1400 yards and 11 TD’s. But San Diego will inevitably double him up most of the game so don’t be shocked to see Green finish with under 100 yards. To counter the focus on their star wide out, I predict Cinci will adapt a run-first game plan and rely on big plays from their defense while using Andy Dalton in a conservative game-management type role – a role he’s best at.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot] Bottom-line, we’ll see a closer game than most anticipate from a 3 v. 6 seed. The Chargers got the fire-power to keep it close but Rivers might find the pickings difficult against Adam Jones and that Bengal secondary especially if he finds himself behind in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter and having to throw on every down. Let us not forget this is Phillip Rivers and all of us know what he’s capable of reverting to if the proverbial ‘glass slipper’ comes off. With a 50/50 chance of snow during the game, it could turn into a field position battle with heavily favors the Bengals with their defense. Keep an eye on the weather!
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Prediction[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: [/FONT]Cincinnati 24 San Diego 17[FONT=&quot]. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]My advice? Buy the ½ pt. with the Chargers and get yourself +7.5, even if you have to pay 20 cents juice. NOTE: Weather projects to be a high of 34 with a 50% chance of snow. Winds out of the NW at 11 MPH.[/FONT]


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San Francisco (-2 ½) at Green Bay[FONT=&quot] on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2014 at 4:40pm ET on Fox.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] If there is any team that can win a Playoff game on the frozen tundra, it’s this 49er team. They have, after all, owned the Packers in recent meetings, taking the past three contests. If you recall, Colin Kaepernick has had some of his best games against the Pack. In last year’s Playoff match-up win, Kap ran for 181 yards, which set an NFL record for rushing yards by a QB. And then he threw for 412 yards against Green Bay in Week One of this season. Safe to say he has their number.

So then, what chance does Green Bay have of winning this you might ask? Like Seattle, Green Bay has some of the most passionate fans in the NFL. The place will be rocking. Also, Aaron Rodgers showed he is 100% healthy with his performance last weekend, as is star WR Randall Cobb. Throw into the mix that it will be about 10 degrees at kickoff so if you buy into the whole warm weather team traveling cross-country to play a cold weather team on the road in a cold weather environment theory, this one fits that blueprint. [/FONT]


[FONT=&quot] Do not be shocked to see this one decided in the final minutes and someone come out on top by less than 3 points. At the end of the day the fact remains that the 49ers are a full tier better than the Packers. The SF defense more than makes up for any advantage the Packer offense has. This one is tight only because it’s in Green Bay. If this was played in San Fran, I think the Niners would win by 10.
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Prediction[/FONT][FONT=&quot]: [/FONT]San Francisco 26 Green Bay 24.[FONT=&quot] I would be careful laying the ½ point, I would buy the hook if your outlet allows so. NOTE: Weather projects to be a high of 12 degrees, Winds out of the NW at 11 MPH and cloudy. Not seeing snow in the forecast.[/FONT]

Bandito-Great write ups and Welcome to the RX.

I just wanted to point out that the weather report for
the Indy-KC game won't be much of a factor as by now
you've guessed why.

enjoy the games!

xflrejects said:

Bandito-Great write ups and Welcome to the RX.

I just wanted to point out that the weather report for
the Indy-KC game won't be much of a factor as by now
you've guessed why.

enjoy the games!

Click to expand...

Thanks for the welcome. Yeah, good point, lol.

The recap from my radio show...sorry for the poor formatting...

The first game pitted two teams against each other who were going in totally different directions. As you recall, the Kansas City Chiefs started the season (9-0) and finished (11-5). You don’t need to be a math whiz to know they tanked down the stretch. This team just didn’t look good at all. In their defense, they were missing a couple key defensive players for most of that stretch – the biggest name being outside linebacker Justin Houston, who returned in time for this game and had a sack and 4 tackles.

The Colts came into this one, winners of 5 out of their last 6, and fresh off a 23-7 stomping of these same Chiefs just 2 weeks ago in Kansas City - (6-2) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Andrew Luck appearing to be much improved from the nervous and inexperienced rookie we saw get his ass handed to him vs. the Ravens last year in the Wild Card game.
I predicted a 27-17 Colt win. When I made that call, I definitely did not imagine 89 total points or that Indy would fall behind 38-10 early 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter only to storm back and win 45-44. Just an amazing game, just goes to show that there’s 2 halves to every football game. Andrew Luck struggled early throwing three INT’s. Trent Richardson fumbled away his only carry which lead to 7 points for the Chiefs, what a disappointment he’s been since coming over from the Browns. Don’t be shocked if he doesn’t see the field next week. I did say the magic number for Andrew Luck was 2. If he kept the turnovers under 2, Indy would cruise. It didn’t happen and as a result, it was an uphill struggle virtually all game.
KC jumped out to a 31-10 halftime lead in spite of losing star Jamal Charles on their first series due to a concussion. His replacement, rookie Knile Davis, was good – not great - with 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown with a 3.7 yard-per-carry average. The third quarter started ominously for the Colts as Luck threw a pick and KC chased in to make it 38-10. Seemed pretty hopeless at that point.

Chiefs QB Alex Smith played his heart out, throwing for 365 yards and 4 TD’s. He did lose a COSTLY fumble, which eventually led to 7 for the Colts in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter during their comeback. Andrew Luck threw 3 of his 4 TD’s in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half and even recovered a Donald Brown fumble in the end zone for Indy. The young gun finished with 443 passing yards and added 45 on the ground. TY Hilton was a beast with 13 catches, 224 yards (both Colt franchise Playoff records) and 2 TD’s. Aside from Donald Brown out of the backfield, he remains the lone receiving threat for the Colts team with losing Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL 10 weeks ago. Dwayne Bowe had 150 yards and a score in a losing cause. Hall of Fame-bound kicker Adam Vinatieri became the first NFL player to surpass the 200 Playoff points. Many of those memorable kicks as a Patriot, including that 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff 45-yarder in the snow during the infamous ‘Tuck Rule’ game. Sorry Raiders fans, didn’t mean to open up old wounds.

One important note: Both teams combined for 1,049 total yards, an NFL post-season record, and their 89 combined points ranks 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] all-time. Just an unbelievable game if you like offense. Chiefs fans, don’t hang your heads too low…you went from (2-14) last year to (11-5) and a Playoff appearance this year, a remarkable turnaround and hope for optimism heading into next season. In my opinion, the better of the two teams won this game.

For you gamblers out there, interestingly enough, the point spread swung from Indy -2.5 to KC -2.5.
I bet those that play middles made out like a bandit. If you guys did take my advice to take the Colts against the spread hopefully you waited and got the + points. I don’t think anyone who handicapped this game had KC jumping up 28 points.
Again, final score: Indianapolis 45 Kansas City 44. The Colts move on to New England to play the Patriots in Foxboro.

When we return, we’ll talk Saints/ Eagles.

We're back...
If you recall, I predicted a small upset by the Saints on my past show. I had the Saints winning 27-23 outright as 2 1/2 point underdogs. They won 26-24. About as close as you can come to nailing a score without calling it exact. This one was close almost the whole time. Eagles led 7-6 at half. The Saints then opened up a 20-7 lead in the late 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] but the Eagles soared back to recapture the lead 24-23 with under 5 minutes to play in the game. A methodical clock-killing drive engineered by Drew Brees set up the winning FG as time expired. This drive was helped out by a Cary Williams horse collar penalty on Darren Sproles’ kickoff return, putting the Saints at midfield.

By the numbers, Nick Foles finished with a respectable 195 and 2 TD’s and didn’t turn the ball over. Lesean McCoy had 128 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Riley Cooper and rookie tight end Zack Ertz both hauled in a TD. Drew Brees threw for 250 yards, a TD and 2 INT's. He was rusty early on but figured things out in the second half. But the guy that surprised me most was the ever-disappointing Mark Ingram, who may have had the best game of his career, filled in for the injured Pierre Thomas and rushed for 97 yards and a huge TD to put the Saints up 20-7 in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter. Tight End Jimmy Graham had a quiet game with only 3 grabs for 44 yards. Marques Colston was invisible, with 2 receptions for a whopping 16 yards. If New Orleans expects to win next week, they’ll need more out of him and Graham.

Veteran kicker Shayne Graham had ice water in his veins making the game-winning 32 yard FG as time expired for the Saints. Philly had no timeouts left so Chip Kelly was unable to ‘ice’ Graham. To be honest, it likely would not have worked. The 15[SUP]th[/SUP] year man out of Virginia Tech has been making clutch field goals in his sleep for years. Remember, he has a career FG pcg of 85.5% and ranks 11[SUP]th[/SUP] on the all-time FG pcg. List, just a shade below Steven Gostokowski of the Patriots, to give you an idea of how good a kicker he is even at his advanced age. You want my opinion? Game on the line, hostile territory, I believe Garrett Hartley misses that FG. To me, the decision to cut ties with the disappointing 5[SUP]th[/SUP] year kicker out of Oklahoma and bringing in a veteran paid huge dividends for New Orleans.

This was the first road Playoff win for New Orleans in franchise history, a streak that spans back to 1967. They were previously 0 for their past 5 attempts. This obviously doesn’t include their Super bowl win in 2010, which was a neutral field win over the Colts in Miami.

One key injury of note as we look at the Saints chances going forward, Cornerback Keenan Lewis left the game with an apparent head injury and did not return. Eagles fans kept it classy, as always, booing Lewis as he was assisted off the field. His status for next week’s game is ’iffy.’ Lewis had 4 INT’s on the season so this would be a big blow to New Orleans’s secondary if he can’t play.

As for the Eagles, Chip Kelly turned around a team that was (4-12) last year into a (10-6) Playoff team. With young gun Nick Foles at the helm and a health Shady McCoy, there is no reason to think this team won’t surpass 10 wins next season. Remember, they were (1-3) when Foles took over for an injured Michael Vick.

So the Saints are the winners of the ‘Seahawk Jackpot’ and will head west to face (13-3) Seattle at the noisiest stadium in the NFL - the same place they lost 34-7 on December 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in that embarrassing Monday Night Massacre. Will the results be different this time? Do you think that place will be deafening when Brees and the Saints come to the line? I would love to hear what all of you think.
We’re going to take a quick break, when we return, we’ll discuss find out what happened when Phillip Rivers and company visited Cincinnati.

Chargers at Bengals…I predicted a 24-17 Cinci victory but advised you gamblers out there to buy the ½ point with the Chargers and take the +7.5 as I could see San Diego playing this one tight with an outside shot of an upset but didn’t feel they’d lose by more than 7. Well, San Diego fans…your team is heading to Denver. The Chargers pulled off this week’s biggest upset, taking out Cincinnati, 27-10.

The weather cooperated in Cinci. At kickoff, it was 40 degrees and no snow, light rain. After both teams punted on opening drives, the Chargers drew first blood with a Danny Woodhead 5 yard TD burst up the middle near the end of the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter, quieting the crowd early. As a Patriots fan, I miss Woodhead. Such a versatile player, great change of pace back – very under-rated receiver out of the backfield – he’ll play some special teams. One of those players you can plug in anywhere and he can do it all. The Bengals are one of the best 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter teams so as expected, they responded with a long drive resulting in Andy Dalton connecting with tight end Jermaine Gresham to nod things at 7. The Bengals should have gone up 14-7 at the half but Giovani Bernard fumbled at the 5 and the Chargers recovered in the end zone. The Bengals did get the ball back and take a 10-7 half-time lead.

The second half, however, was all San Diego as Andy Dalton did his usual thing – turning the ball over three times. Ronnie Brown put things out of reach with a 53 yard TD run with just over 2 minutes left.
By the numbers, for Cinci Big Red finished 29 of 51 for 334 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT’s and one fumble lost. San Diego held star wide out AJ Green in check with only 3 grabs for 34 yards. The lone Bengal bright spots on offense were second wide receiver Marvin Jones, who had 8 receptions for 130 yards and tight end Jermaine Gresham, 7 grabs for 64 yards and the lone Bengal touchdown. Playing catch-up most of the second half, the Bengals did very little on the ground. Green-Ellis, 42 yards on 8 carries. Bernard, 45 on 12 carries and 118 yards all-purpose yards but lost a crucial fumble in the first half.

For San Diego, Phillip Rivers wasn’t the story of the game. The Chargers actually made their bones by way of winning the turnover battle 4-0 and utilizing a solid ground game ground all day in which they rushed for 196 yards as a team. They got 77 yards and a TD from veteran Ronnie Brown. Danny Woodhead added 55 and a score. Ryan Matthews was relatively quiet, 52 yards and touchdowns. Rivers completed 12 of 16 passes for 1 TD, no picks…that TD went to back-up tight end Ladarius Green to put the Chargers ahead for good, mid-way through the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter.
Cincinnati picked the wrong time to lose their first home game of the season. Andy Dalton is now the proud owner of an (0-3) Playoff record. Head coach Marvin Lewis is now (0-5) in the Playoffs in his 11-year tenure as Bengal coach. Tell me, at what point do you just accept the fact that he simply cannot get it done this time of year? Bottom-line for Cinci, when you lose the turnover battle 4-zip, like they did today, you pretty much give yourself no chance of winning the game. I’m not sure off-hand what the % is of teams actually winning a game after committing 4 more turnovers than their opponent but I’m sure it’s pretty low. No home field advantage in the world can compensate for a -4 turnover ratio.

The win by the San Diego means they’ll play at Denver next week where they already have a win against the Broncos this season. After the way San Diego beat Kansas City in Week 17 to advance to the Playoffs, one must wonder are they a team of destiny? They are peaking at the right time and if you look at Green Bay in 2010 and Baltimore last year, they fit that blueprint.

When we return, the final game of the weekend and the most anticipated one…stay tuned

And we’re back.

And the final game of the weekend....

The 49ers travelling to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the Packers…and frozen it was – close to 2 degrees at kickoff. I predicted a 26-24 San Fran victory. As anticipated, the game was back-and-forth, with the lead changing hands 5 times. But in the end, it was San Francisco edging Green Bay, 23-20, on a last second FG by veteran kicker Phil Dawson.

In a 20-20 game, San Francisco used a clock-milking 5 minute drive to set up Dawson for the game winning 33-yarder while the Lambeau faithful looked on helplessly.

Colin Kaepernick improves to (3-0) against Green Bay. He killed them all day with his legs, running for 98 yards but always seeming to find that room to extend the chains on crucial downs. Kap threw for 227, a TD and one pick.
San Francisco moves on to Carolina to play the Panthers. The good news for Colin Kaepernick and crowd is it will be significantly warmer down there.

Overall, my Wild Card picks went (3-1) straight-up and (3-1) against the opening spread. Hopefully, they helped some of you out with whatever you did with the info.

Well, that concludes our show. I hope you enjoyed the program. Be sure to keep an eye out for my next show later in the week where I’ll preview the four games coming up this weekend.