Keep it Simple Stupid.

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Everyone's heard of the KISS method...Simplify, don't try to weigh so many factors. I feel like sometimes when I weigh many factors, I dilute the really important ones that I initially had thought about. So, I am siding with one factor for WCW: Betting on the teams that have beaten actual playoff squads against teams who haven't beaten shit.

*Indy/ SF/NO*

We all know Indy beat quite a few top tier teams, no need to list. SF beat Seattle and GB with AR. NO beat San Fran/Car.

Chiefs- Have only beaten ONE playoff team all year, and that was the Eagles with Vick back in week three when the Eagles stunk(Vick threw 2 INTs and a fumble) and KC was playing well to boot. So technically they have not beaten anyone, because the Eagles with Vick were NOT a playoff team so to me the Chiefs have "ZERO" wins against playoff teams.

Eagles- Have beaten ONE playoff team, and that was the packers the week after AR was hurt. GB one week removed from a AR injury (Tolzen/Wallace were Qbs) is not a playoff team. So therefore, they also have beaten "zero" playoff teams.

Green Bay- Has beaten ZERO playoff teams. Not even a fake win here.

Basically what we have here is INDY/SF/NO each have beaten at least two playoff teams, and their matchup is against teams that havent beaten a playoff team this whole season. I just feel like, if these teams haven't done it in 17 weeks, what makes this week so different?

For what its worth on other game, I like CIN at 7. CIN is stellar at home and San Diego is meh on the road, just 4-4. Everyone keeps bringing up the Bronco game, and if you look at how they preformed on the road this year, THAT game is the anomaly. Every other game on the road this year has been a subpar showing mins Jax and KC a div opponent. Losses at Oakland, Tenn, Wash..ugh.

I think a good stat I am going to look up is Dalton after throwing 2INT+ games, see if he bounces back or not historically. I just see CIN as a very good run stopping D and SD is not going to be able to mythodically go down the field like they want to. They are going to have to throw the ball down the field, which can be good or bad, but one thing that usually helps is the over:think1:
 

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I'm rolling with Indy/ SF/ NO and Cinci as straight-up winners...only touching Indy - 2 1/2 and NO with the points right now. Cinci is tricky, if I can get 7.5, it might tempt me to go SD. Dalton is unpredictable. Sad when you feel you can trust Rivers more.
 

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Right now I'm agreement with IND and NO. Good luck.
Not trying to back SD, but they haven't lost a game outside of California by more than 7 points since week 10 last year. And that was the only game last year, but it was sandwiched between games vs KC and DEN. I wouldnt exactly say they are meh on the road.
 
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Right now I'm agreement with IND and NO. Good luck.
Not trying to back SD, but they haven't lost a game outside of California by more than 7 points since week 10 last year. And that was the only game last year, but it was sandwiched between games vs KC and DEN. I wouldnt exactly say they are meh on the road.


They went 4-4, yes they were close games but I still think thats pretty...asi' asi' as those Mexicans say.

Heres where it gets a little clearer for me, their non div road opponents. They went 1-3 with lone win @ Jax. Their three losses were as I said, pretty much bottom feeders. So to me, either A.) They just suck against non div opponents on the road or B.) They "play down" to their competition..ill go with a mix of both.

Pretty much just a lean anyway, I also like how CIN is gaining playoff exp year in and year out. While I do prefer Rivers and Mccoy to Dalton and Lewis, CIN defense at home is hard to pass up. Im not reading to much into letting a helpless Balt score 17 on them, its a DIV opponent! SD did well against their division but its just a diff animal when they are outside of their division. Look at the scores all season for CIN @ home against non div opp and SD on the road against non div opp...Cin undefeated, SD 1 win at Jax when Jax was the worst team in the league before the Texans took that crown.... BOL slurve!
 

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GB lost to SF in SF by 6 . So on a neutral field they lose by 3. At GB it is a pickem. GB was wout their QB for 1/2 the season and have been playing w a street FA in Flynn. They were also missing some LBs and now only Mathews is out.

Teams are pretty similar when healthy. I think Rodgers is > than Kap and the GB weather gives them the slight edge here.
 

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